The Midwest is Quietly Winning in 2026 – Here’s What the Data Says

Wholesaling
1moFollow

The Midwest is Quietly Winning in 2026 – Here’s What the Data Says

Okechukwu Treasure C
Virtual Assistant · Toledo, OH · Member since 2026 · 84 posts · 36 votes

A lot of attention has been on the Sunbelt over the last few years, but the 2026 data is telling a different story. Ohio is quietly becoming one of the strongest markets in the country right now.

Fortune recently reported that Florida and Texas are now the biggest losers in the housing market, while Ohio is emerging as the surprise winner. Cincinnati and Columbus are modest buyer's markets, but Cleveland is one of the rare balanced markets in America.

At the same time, the fix-and-flip market is showing strain in the Sunbelt, with the Q2 2026 Fix-and-Flip Index falling to its second consecutive quarterly decline. Flippers in Texas and the Southeast reported longer selling times and more sales below estimated after-repair values. But in the Midwest and Northern California, flippers are still selling above ARV.

What does this mean for wholesalers?

· More buyer interest in the Midwest – As investors pivot away from saturated Sunbelt markets, Ohio is positioned to absorb that capital.

· Tax-delinquent owners are more motivated – With rising inventory across Ohio and days on market increasing, sellers are becoming more open to cash offers.

· Off-market deals still dominate – The best deals never hit Zillow or Redfin. Direct mail, skip tracing, and relationships are still the best way to find motivated sellers.

I've been tracking tax-delinquent lists and skip-tracing owners in Cleveland and Toledo, and the conversations are noticeably different now compared to six months ago. More owners are picking up the phone.

For those actively sourcing in the Midwest—are you seeing the same shift? Are sellers becoming easier to engage, or is the softening market making them more hesitant?

2Reply
466 views

Most Popular Reply

Igor Ganapolsky
Coral Springs, FL · Member since 2018 · 464 posts · 95 votes
3w

Bishop, the tax-delinquent angle you're working in Cleveland and Toledo is exactly where the Midwest has a structural advantage — but I'd push it one step further for anyone reading this.

You're skip-tracing tax-delinquent owners and calling them. That works. But in several Midwest counties, you don't even need to call. The county has already done the entire legal process: identified the property, sent notices for 1-3 years, set an auction date, and published the list publicly. The seller is as motivated as it gets — they're about to lose the property to a tax sale.

Marion County IN (Indianapolis) is the clearest example I've seen. The county auditor publishes the tax delinquent list annually — not a third-party data vendor, the actual county. Pull the list (free), cross-reference Marion County Assessor values (free), calculate spreads between tax debt and market value, and you have your deal pipeline without a single cold call or skip trace dollar.

Rob's point about the affordability squeeze at the entry level actually makes tax deed properties more attractive to cash buyers in the Midwest — these parcels sell at auction for cash (full payment same day or within 24-48 hours), which means thinner competition because most wholesalers can't work without financing contingencies. The buyers who show up with cash are the ones who've been priced out of traditional acquisition channels.

For anyone working the Midwest right now: Marion County IN, Cuyahoga County OH (Cleveland), and Lucas County OH (Toledo) all have published tax delinquent lists. Broward County FL has Auction #113 on October 26 with hundreds of parcels already posted — different region but same model. The data Bishop is seeing with more owners picking up the phone? That's because the clock is ticking on their tax debt. They're not just motivated — they're on a deadline.

Rob, to your affordability question: the entry-level buyer who can't clear the payment is exactly why cash auction buyers are winning in these markets. They're not competing with financed buyers — they're competing with other cash buyers who did their homework on the spreads.

2Reply
See this reply in the discussion

7 Replies

Jump to latestLatest
  • Marcus Auerbach
    Investor · Milwaukee - Mequon, WI · Member since 2010 · 5k+ posts · 7k+ votes
    1mo

    Milwaukee is still a sellers market, +6.1% YoY. Basically no change in the supply/demand dynamic for the last 10+ years. On top of that in the last 4 years migration to Wisconsin has turned positive.

    0Reply
    • Okechukwu Treasure C
      OP
      Virtual Assistant · Toledo, OH · Member since 2026 · 84 posts · 36 votes
      1mo
      Quote from @Marcus Auerbach:

      Milwaukee is still a sellers market, +6.1% YoY. Basically no change in the supply/demand dynamic for the last 10+ years. On top of that in the last 4 years migration to Wisconsin has turned positive.


       Marcus, thanks for sharing that perspective – it's helpful to see how different Midwest markets are moving in different directions.

      Milwaukee being up +6.1% YoY with positive migration is a solid counterpoint to what I'm seeing in Ohio. It shows that the "Midwest is winning" narrative isn't one-size-fits-all – some markets are still holding strong seller's momentum while others are softening.

      I think that's exactly why it's so important to track data at the local level rather than assuming trends apply across the whole region. Your point about migration patterns is a good reminder that demand drivers can vary significantly from city to city.

      Are you seeing any signs of softening at all in Milwaukee, or is it still as competitive as it was a year ago?

      Appreciate you sharing your perspective – it helps me avoid overgeneralizing.

      0Reply
  • Josiah Garcia
    Member since 2026 · 230 posts · 35 votes
    1mo

    Ohio's fundamentals have always been solid—affordable entry prices, reasonable cap rates, and steady rental demand that doesn't get the hype Sunbelt markets do. The Sunbelt run-up also priced out a lot of the margin for newer investors, so the shift back to Midwest markets makes sense from a cash flow perspective. What specific Ohio markets are you looking at? The fundamentals can vary pretty significantly between Cleveland, Columbus, and Cincinnati.

    0Reply
    • Okechukwu Treasure C
      OP
      Virtual Assistant · Toledo, OH · Member since 2026 · 84 posts · 36 votes
      1mo
      Quote from @Josiah Garcia:

      Ohio's fundamentals have always been solid—affordable entry prices, reasonable cap rates, and steady rental demand that doesn't get the hype Sunbelt markets do. The Sunbelt run-up also priced out a lot of the margin for newer investors, so the shift back to Midwest markets makes sense from a cash flow perspective. What specific Ohio markets are you looking at? The fundamentals can vary pretty significantly between Cleveland, Columbus, and Cincinnati.

      Josiah, thanks for weighing in – you're spot on about the Sunbelt run-up pricing out newer investors. That's exactly what I've been seeing in the data as well.
      To answer your question: I'm currently focused on Cleveland, Columbus, and Toledo – each with a slightly different flavor.
      · Cleveland – still one of the most affordable major markets with strong cash flow potential. Tax‑delinquent owners are becoming more responsive as days on market stretch. · Columbus – solid job growth and population inflow keep demand steady, but inventory is creeping up, which is creating more motivated sellers. · Toledo – ranked one of the hottest markets in the country for 2026. Still affordable, but appreciation is starting to pick up faster than people expect.
      I've been pulling tax‑delinquent lists and skip‑tracing owners in all three, and the conversations are noticeably different than they were six months ago. More owners are willing to engage.
      Are you focused on any specific Ohio markets yourself, or do you lean more toward other Midwest cities?
      Appreciate your perspective.
      0Reply
  • Rob Bergeron
    Real Estate Agent · Louisville, KY · Member since 2017 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    1mo

    Good breakdown. Adding Kentucky, since it usually gets left out of these, and our numbers cut against the frame in a way I think is useful rather than contradictory.

    July, Jefferson County, single family, year over year: active listings 1,777 to 2,305, up 29.7%. Pending sales 999 to 806, down 19.3%. Average days on market 23.0 to 26.2.

    So supply up thirty, demand down nineteen, and the market still absorbs a house in three extra days at 98.4% of list.

    That combination is the interesting part. Prices haven't broken here. Volume has. And it isn't spread evenly: showings under $200k are down 24.5% year over year while $600k and up are up 41.5%. Our affordability index is at 110, the lowest reading on a chart that starts in 2007.

    The entry level buyer isn't negotiating. They're disqualified. They can't clear the payment at any price a seller would take.

    If that's happening across the Midwest and not just here, it complicates the thesis a little. "The Midwest is winning" would be true at the top of these markets and false at the bottom, and the bottom is where most buy and hold inventory sits. @Marcus Auerbach Milwaukee at +6.1% with positive migration suggests it isn't uniform.

    Are you seeing the same split by price band in the Ohio numbers, or is Louisville's affordability squeeze worse than the regional norm?

    0Reply
    • Okechukwu Treasure C
      OP
      Virtual Assistant · Toledo, OH · Member since 2026 · 84 posts · 36 votes
      3w
      Quote from @Rob Bergeron:

      Good breakdown. Adding Kentucky, since it usually gets left out of these, and our numbers cut against the frame in a way I think is useful rather than contradictory.

      July, Jefferson County, single family, year over year: active listings 1,777 to 2,305, up 29.7%. Pending sales 999 to 806, down 19.3%. Average days on market 23.0 to 26.2.

      So supply up thirty, demand down nineteen, and the market still absorbs a house in three extra days at 98.4% of list.

      That combination is the interesting part. Prices haven't broken here. Volume has. And it isn't spread evenly: showings under $200k are down 24.5% year over year while $600k and up are up 41.5%. Our affordability index is at 110, the lowest reading on a chart that starts in 2007.

      The entry level buyer isn't negotiating. They're disqualified. They can't clear the payment at any price a seller would take.

      If that's happening across the Midwest and not just here, it complicates the thesis a little. "The Midwest is winning" would be true at the top of these markets and false at the bottom, and the bottom is where most buy and hold inventory sits. @Marcus Auerbach Milwaukee at +6.1% with positive migration suggests it isn't uniform.

      Are you seeing the same split by price band in the Ohio numbers, or is Louisville's affordability squeeze worse than the regional norm?


       Rob, that's a really sharp breakdown – the distinction between supply/demand shifting and prices actually breaking is the part most people miss. I appreciate you sharing the Louisville numbers.

      Ohio has some interesting parallels. Ohio's median household income is around $70,196, with a median list price of $277,348 – meaning the median-priced home requires about 27% of median income, which is actually tied for third-most-affordable in the country. But that's the statewide average – and I think the real story is hiding in the price-tier splits you mentioned.

      For example, Columbus home prices rose 6.2% in Q1 2026, significantly outpacing the national average of 0.5%. That's great for sellers, but it's pricing out first-time buyers. Meanwhile, Cleveland's median sale price is around $250,229 – up 4.3% YoY – and homes are selling in about 29 days at 98% of list price. The market is still absorbing inventory, but I'm starting to see more entry-level buyers struggle to qualify.

      To your point about the affordability index in Louisville being at 110 – Ohio's affordability metrics are still better than the national average, but I'm noticing a similar split: entry-level buyers aren't negotiating, they're being disqualified by rates and payments. Have you seen any signs that the entry-level squeeze is starting to affect investor activity at that price tier, or is it still mostly a retail buyer problem?

      Appreciate you sharing your perspective – helps me avoid overgeneralizing the "Midwest is winning" narrative.

      0Reply
  • Igor Ganapolsky
    Coral Springs, FL · Member since 2018 · 464 posts · 95 votes
    3w

    Bishop, the tax-delinquent angle you're working in Cleveland and Toledo is exactly where the Midwest has a structural advantage — but I'd push it one step further for anyone reading this.

    You're skip-tracing tax-delinquent owners and calling them. That works. But in several Midwest counties, you don't even need to call. The county has already done the entire legal process: identified the property, sent notices for 1-3 years, set an auction date, and published the list publicly. The seller is as motivated as it gets — they're about to lose the property to a tax sale.

    Marion County IN (Indianapolis) is the clearest example I've seen. The county auditor publishes the tax delinquent list annually — not a third-party data vendor, the actual county. Pull the list (free), cross-reference Marion County Assessor values (free), calculate spreads between tax debt and market value, and you have your deal pipeline without a single cold call or skip trace dollar.

    Rob's point about the affordability squeeze at the entry level actually makes tax deed properties more attractive to cash buyers in the Midwest — these parcels sell at auction for cash (full payment same day or within 24-48 hours), which means thinner competition because most wholesalers can't work without financing contingencies. The buyers who show up with cash are the ones who've been priced out of traditional acquisition channels.

    For anyone working the Midwest right now: Marion County IN, Cuyahoga County OH (Cleveland), and Lucas County OH (Toledo) all have published tax delinquent lists. Broward County FL has Auction #113 on October 26 with hundreds of parcels already posted — different region but same model. The data Bishop is seeing with more owners picking up the phone? That's because the clock is ticking on their tax debt. They're not just motivated — they're on a deadline.

    Rob, to your affordability question: the entry-level buyer who can't clear the payment is exactly why cash auction buyers are winning in these markets. They're not competing with financed buyers — they're competing with other cash buyers who did their homework on the spreads.

    2Reply
Join the conversationCreate a free account to reply, vote on answers and follow this thread.
Log InJoin for Free