Back from the Smokies: What I Saw

Short-Term & Vacation Rental Discussions
21hFollow

Back from the Smokies: What I Saw

Collin HaysBusiness Member
Property Manager · Gatlinburg, TN · Member since 2020 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes

Spent a week in the Smokies, looking at properties, meeting with my team, visiting with merchants.

Without exception, merchants say business has been down in 2026. The Pancake Pantry in Gatlinburg is the ultimate bellwether, because they are busy regardless. But not as much in 2026, and the waitress had no guesses as to why. Just far fewer people.

Real estate: Prices are sticky. Sellers are wanting 2022 money for homes that the underlying rents simply do not support. They aren't asking 10X 2026 rents; they are asking 10X 2022 rents. What is incredible to me is the prices that "brand new builds" are fetching, even though very cheaply built. $350-400 per foot for cheap stuff.

That said, there are deals out there that make some sense. I worked with a gentleman in CA who is closing on a 12-unit cabin complex in Gatlinburg that he purchased for $2.2 million, that posted $330K in actual rents last year. With $200K in improvements, they should fetch $400K a year.

I am also looking to add to my portfolio in the Smokies, but I can't afford to tie up cash on things that are questionable. If the numbers do not clearly work, I'm just wasting time and capital.

[email protected]806-672-7102
SMOKY MOUNTAIN FALLS INC.51 Review
WebsiteView Page
3Reply
158 views

Most Popular Reply

John UnderwoodPro Member
Investor · Greer, SC · Member since 2014 · 13k+ posts · 17k+ votes
10h

Thanks, Collin, for the insight as always!

For our 6 Bedroom 4400sqft cabin:

We are seeing the best bookings for this fall we have seen in a while.

Our June and July were also super strong.

August was a little weak but OK.

June and July for 2027 are filling in nicely too.

We typically just have to weather the storm for Jan through May.

This year we upgraded our large front deck to Trex to the tune of 35K.

Our projector went out after about 3 years and we opted for a 100" TV since prices are reasonable on these now.

1Reply
See this reply in the discussion

5 Replies

Jump to latestLatest
  • Divin KanyamaBusiness Member
    Accountant · Seattle, WA · Member since 2025 · 216 posts · 72 votes
    19h

    @Collin Hays That lines up with what many investors are seeing: softer demand, but sellers are still anchored to peak-market pricing. In a market like the Smokies, gross revenue alone can be misleading—the deal still has to work after management, utilities, maintenance, insurance, taxes, furnishing, reserves, and a realistic occupancy assumption.

    The 12-unit complex sounds promising at roughly 6.7 times last year’s gross rents, especially if the improvement budget can support $400K in revenue. The key questions are what the stabilized net operating income looks like, how dependent the projection is on higher occupancy or nightly rates, and whether the renovation budget includes contingency.

    Patience makes sense here. If a property only works with optimistic revenue or appreciation assumptions, it probably is not worth tying up the cash. Strong current numbers, conservative projections, and enough reserves matter more than getting a deal simply because inventory is available.

    [email protected]
    WEMBO CPA532 Reviews
    WebsiteView Page
    0Reply
  • John UnderwoodPro Member
    Investor · Greer, SC · Member since 2014 · 13k+ posts · 17k+ votes
    10h

    Thanks, Collin, for the insight as always!

    For our 6 Bedroom 4400sqft cabin:

    We are seeing the best bookings for this fall we have seen in a while.

    Our June and July were also super strong.

    August was a little weak but OK.

    June and July for 2027 are filling in nicely too.

    We typically just have to weather the storm for Jan through May.

    This year we upgraded our large front deck to Trex to the tune of 35K.

    Our projector went out after about 3 years and we opted for a 100" TV since prices are reasonable on these now.

    1Reply
  • Andrew SteffensBusiness Member
    Tampa, FL · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    2h

    Are there any new attractions being added in the years to come?

    [email protected]813-563-0877
    Vacation Rentals of Florida53 Reviews
    WebsiteView Page
    0Reply
  • Diana Khan
    Attorney · 10451 Mill Run Cir #755 Owings Mills, MD 21117 · Member since 2024 · 360 posts · 131 votes
    2h
    Quote from @Collin Hays:

    Spent a week in the Smokies, looking at properties, meeting with my team, visiting with merchants.

    Without exception, merchants say business has been down in 2026. The Pancake Pantry in Gatlinburg is the ultimate bellwether, because they are busy regardless. But not as much in 2026, and the waitress had no guesses as to why. Just far fewer people.

    Real estate: Prices are sticky. Sellers are wanting 2022 money for homes that the underlying rents simply do not support. They aren't asking 10X 2026 rents; they are asking 10X 2022 rents. What is incredible to me is the prices that "brand new builds" are fetching, even though very cheaply built. $350-400 per foot for cheap stuff.

    That said, there are deals out there that make some sense. I worked with a gentleman in CA who is closing on a 12-unit cabin complex in Gatlinburg that he purchased for $2.2 million, that posted $330K in actual rents last year. With $200K in improvements, they should fetch $400K a year.

    I am also looking to add to my portfolio in the Smokies, but I can't afford to tie up cash on things that are questionable. If the numbers do not clearly work, I'm just wasting time and capital.

    @Collin Hays, I've seen buyers get very focused on the trailing revenue and improvement budget with STR properties, but I also like to look closely at what actually comes with the property.

    Before buying something like an existing cabin complex, I would want to confirm the current use is allowed, any required permits or licenses are in place, and understand what happens to existing bookings, deposits, management agreements, and other contracts after closing. I’ve seen good numbers get much less attractive when the buyer finds out something they assumed would simply carry over actually does not. I like your approach of waiting until the numbers clearly work instead of forcing a deal just to add another property.

    0Reply
Join the conversationCreate a free account to reply, vote on answers and follow this thread.
Log InJoin for Free