What Number Matters Most Before You Start a Construction Project?

What Number Matters Most Before You Start a Construction Project?

Real Estate Broker · Frankfort, KY · Member since 2019 · 125 posts · 30 votes

When analyzing a new construction deal, what's the one number you pay the most attention to?

Purchase/land cost?

Total construction budget?

Expected ARV?

Monthly holding cost?

Projected profit?

Financing cost?

There's obviously more than one important number, but I'm curious which one experienced investors consider the biggest early warning sign.

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Bruce WoodruffPro Member
Contractor/Investor/Consultant · San Diego / Phoenix · Member since 2021 · 12k+ posts · 15k+ votes
1mo

Final Sales Price (ARV) minus ALL costs = Net Profit

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  • Lender · Lake City, MI · Member since 2019 · 118 posts · 42 votes
    1mo

    This is a great question!  My initial reaction is, "You need to pay attention to all those numbers"

    I think the combo of construction budget and holding costs can quickly get away on you if you are not super dialed in with hitting the timelines correctly.

  • Bruce WoodruffPro Member
    Contractor/Investor/Consultant · San Diego / Phoenix · Member since 2021 · 12k+ posts · 15k+ votes
    1mo

    Final Sales Price (ARV) minus ALL costs = Net Profit

  • Contractor · Pensacola, FL · Member since 2017 · 313 posts · 156 votes
    1h

    I'll say if I had to pick 1 its land cost. But there is a lot that is wrapped up in that. Does the land have a sewer lateral on it already? Is there a power transformer on the property already? Is it cleared? Sloped or flat? You make your money when you buy.

    I think in most markets construction cost is going to be comparable unless you are doing a lot of volume like 10 starts or more per month. The rest of us are going to build the house for +- 10 pct within each other. So construction budget isn't AS important imo.

    Just as important as land cost is As Built Value. You can't invest a million dollars in a house that sits in a neighborhood of 100k houses. Don't get cute. Find out what people are buying and build in that range. Spec building is about fairways and greens. But I suppose that's all relative to your risk tolerance. I know guys building million dollar specs in a market that averages like 380k. But Ive been through one housing crash and it damn near ruined me. Not putting myself in that spot again.

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