Back from the Smokies: What I Saw

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Back from the Smokies: What I Saw

Collin HaysBusiness Member
Property Manager · Gatlinburg, TN · Member since 2020 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes

Spent a week in the Smokies, looking at properties, meeting with my team, visiting with merchants.

Without exception, merchants say business has been down in 2026. The Pancake Pantry in Gatlinburg is the ultimate bellwether, because they are busy regardless. But not as much in 2026, and the waitress had no guesses as to why. Just far fewer people.

Real estate: Prices are sticky. Sellers are wanting 2022 money for homes that the underlying rents simply do not support. They aren't asking 10X 2026 rents; they are asking 10X 2022 rents. What is incredible to me is the prices that "brand new builds" are fetching, even though very cheaply built. $350-400 per foot for cheap stuff.

That said, there are deals out there that make some sense. I worked with a gentleman in CA who is closing on a 12-unit cabin complex in Gatlinburg that he purchased for $2.2 million, that posted $330K in actual rents last year. With $200K in improvements, they should fetch $400K a year.

I am also looking to add to my portfolio in the Smokies, but I can't afford to tie up cash on things that are questionable. If the numbers do not clearly work, I'm just wasting time and capital.

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John UnderwoodPro Member
Investor · Greer, SC · Member since 2014 · 13k+ posts · 17k+ votes
1w

Thanks, Collin, for the insight as always!

For our 6 Bedroom 4400sqft cabin:

We are seeing the best bookings for this fall we have seen in a while.

Our June and July were also super strong.

August was a little weak but OK.

June and July for 2027 are filling in nicely too.

We typically just have to weather the storm for Jan through May.

This year we upgraded our large front deck to Trex to the tune of 35K.

Our projector went out after about 3 years and we opted for a 100" TV since prices are reasonable on these now.

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  • Divin KanyamaBusiness Member
    Accountant · Seattle, WA · Member since 2025 · 342 posts · 127 votes
    1w

    @Collin Hays That lines up with what many investors are seeing: softer demand, but sellers are still anchored to peak-market pricing. In a market like the Smokies, gross revenue alone can be misleading—the deal still has to work after management, utilities, maintenance, insurance, taxes, furnishing, reserves, and a realistic occupancy assumption.

    The 12-unit complex sounds promising at roughly 6.7 times last year’s gross rents, especially if the improvement budget can support $400K in revenue. The key questions are what the stabilized net operating income looks like, how dependent the projection is on higher occupancy or nightly rates, and whether the renovation budget includes contingency.

    Patience makes sense here. If a property only works with optimistic revenue or appreciation assumptions, it probably is not worth tying up the cash. Strong current numbers, conservative projections, and enough reserves matter more than getting a deal simply because inventory is available.

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  • John UnderwoodPro Member
    Investor · Greer, SC · Member since 2014 · 13k+ posts · 17k+ votes
    1w

    Thanks, Collin, for the insight as always!

    For our 6 Bedroom 4400sqft cabin:

    We are seeing the best bookings for this fall we have seen in a while.

    Our June and July were also super strong.

    August was a little weak but OK.

    June and July for 2027 are filling in nicely too.

    We typically just have to weather the storm for Jan through May.

    This year we upgraded our large front deck to Trex to the tune of 35K.

    Our projector went out after about 3 years and we opted for a 100" TV since prices are reasonable on these now.

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  • Andrew SteffensBusiness Member
    Tampa, FL · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    1w

    Are there any new attractions being added in the years to come?

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  • Diana KhanPro Member
    Attorney · 10451 Mill Run Cir #755 Owings Mills, MD 21117 · Member since 2024 · 479 posts · 174 votes
    1w
    Quote from @Collin Hays:

    Spent a week in the Smokies, looking at properties, meeting with my team, visiting with merchants.

    Without exception, merchants say business has been down in 2026. The Pancake Pantry in Gatlinburg is the ultimate bellwether, because they are busy regardless. But not as much in 2026, and the waitress had no guesses as to why. Just far fewer people.

    Real estate: Prices are sticky. Sellers are wanting 2022 money for homes that the underlying rents simply do not support. They aren't asking 10X 2026 rents; they are asking 10X 2022 rents. What is incredible to me is the prices that "brand new builds" are fetching, even though very cheaply built. $350-400 per foot for cheap stuff.

    That said, there are deals out there that make some sense. I worked with a gentleman in CA who is closing on a 12-unit cabin complex in Gatlinburg that he purchased for $2.2 million, that posted $330K in actual rents last year. With $200K in improvements, they should fetch $400K a year.

    I am also looking to add to my portfolio in the Smokies, but I can't afford to tie up cash on things that are questionable. If the numbers do not clearly work, I'm just wasting time and capital.

    @Collin Hays, I've seen buyers get very focused on the trailing revenue and improvement budget with STR properties, but I also like to look closely at what actually comes with the property.

    Before buying something like an existing cabin complex, I would want to confirm the current use is allowed, any required permits or licenses are in place, and understand what happens to existing bookings, deposits, management agreements, and other contracts after closing. I’ve seen good numbers get much less attractive when the buyer finds out something they assumed would simply carry over actually does not. I like your approach of waiting until the numbers clearly work instead of forcing a deal just to add another property.

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  • Matthew Tregoning
    Property Manager · Melbourne, FL · Member since 2019 · 263 posts · 125 votes
    1w

    Interesting that John's larger cabin is booking well while the shops feel quieter. Are your smaller places getting hit harder than the big family houses? A market average can hide a lot there.

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  • V.G JasonPro Member
    Investor · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    1w

    Collin, where's your chart? Think it called for 27-28 to be the trenches of it....it's looking spot on.

    With a rate hike, and 1-2 more imminent for EOY through Q1 2027, it's usually 14 months from that first rate hike where things get slippery.

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  • Karen CubberleyBusiness Member
    Realtor · Sevierville, TN · Member since 2026 · 10 posts · 1 vote
    16h

    I'm here in the Smokies and work specifically with STR investors, and I agree with a lot of what you're saying.

    2026 has definitely required investors to be much more selective. The days of buying almost any cabin, putting it on Airbnb, and expecting the numbers to work are behind us.

    Where I think the opportunity is right now is exactly where you landed: there ARE deals here, but you have to buy based on today’s numbers—not 2021 or 2022 revenue and certainly not a seller’s expectations.

    I’m seeing sellers who are still emotionally attached to peak-market pricing, while experienced investors are looking at actual rental history, current competition, expenses, location, amenities, and realistic revenue potential. If those numbers don’t support the purchase price, it’s not a deal.

    The flip side is that we’re in a buyer’s market, and motivated sellers are creating opportunities that simply weren’t available a few years ago.

    For investors with capital who are willing to be patient and disciplined, I think this is an interesting time to buy in the Smokies. But the property has to make sense on paper BEFORE you fall in love with the cabin.

    That’s why I always say: It’s not just about choosing the right property—it’s also about avoiding the wrong one.

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