Columbus multifamily Q3 2026: 8,000+ units absorbed, but supply still ahead of demand

Columbus multifamily Q3 2026: 8,000+ units absorbed, but supply still ahead of demand

Real Estate Agent · Columbus, OH · Member since 2018 · 41 posts · 31 votes

Sharing some numbers from my Q3 2026 Columbus multifamily review.

Renters absorbed just over 8,000 units over the past 12 months, the highest in five years. That still covers only about 78% of the record 10,333 units delivered in the same period. Demand has been strong for three years running. It just hasn't kept pace with construction.

The gap of roughly 2,300 units is landing in two places. New Class A lease-ups are competing on concessions. Older Class B products then feel it, because renters can move up to a newer unit at a discount.

The pipeline is turning. Units under construction dropped to about 7,300, down from roughly 9,000 the prior quarter, and 2027 deliveries are forecast to fall 44%. Everything already under construction still has to lease up, though, so I'm not expecting meaningful rent growth through much of 2027. Relief is in sight, but it isn't here yet.

For those operating Class B in Columbus, are you seeing stronger demand lately? or still weak as the past couple of years?

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  • G. Brian DavisPro Member
    Investor · Hatboro, PA · Member since 2016 · 3k+ posts · 867 votes
    1d

    Hi @Davide Formica, nice to meet you here on BP. Thanks for laying out the absorption math so clearly. The Class B squeeze you describe is what I'd watch most closely, because concessions at new lease ups pull renters up and leave older product competing on price. When we review deals in our co-investing club, I'd want to see a Class B business plan underwritten with flat rents through 2027 and a realistic concession budget. A plan that needs rents to jump in year one would worry me. The 44% drop in deliveries is encouraging, but the operators who make it through this stretch will be the ones whose debt can carry them until relief shows up.

    • Real Estate Agent · Columbus, OH · Member since 2018 · 41 posts · 31 votes
      16h

      Agree on your recipe: "flat rents through 2027 and a realistic concession budget".
      While the data shows signs of relief, it will take more time for the apartment backlog to digest.

  • Ashish AcharyaBusiness Member
    CPA, CFP®, PFS · FL · Member since 2017 · 5k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    1d

    Davide, the 8,000+ units absorbed sounds encouraging, but that 2,300-unit gap between absorption and deliveries is the number I’d be watching most closely.

    For investors, I think the bigger question is what that supply does to actual rents, concessions, occupancy, and NOI, especially for Class B properties competing against newer units offering incentives. It also seems like this could create an interesting buying environment if some owners start feeling enough pressure to sell. The opportunity may not necessarily be in the newest product, but in finding an older property where the pricing reflects the current competition and there's a clear path to improving operations.

    I'd also be looking at the numbers after property taxes, insurance, CapEx, and the tax impact of depreciation rather than relying on headline rent growth. Curious to see whether that 2027 delivery drop actually starts translating into stronger rent growth or whether the existing pipeline keeps the market balanced longer.

    Feel free to DM me, I’d be happy to send over a few resources that might be helpful.

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    • Real Estate Agent · Columbus, OH · Member since 2018 · 41 posts · 31 votes
      16h

      Indeed, operators face pressure today; holding is a luxury not everyone can afford.
      This is the perfect storm: flat rents with higher-than-usual vacancy, high taxes and insurance costs, and high interest rates.

      I wish everyone good luck coming out of this brutal cycle, hopefully sooner rather than later.

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