Real Estate Agent · Columbus, OH · Member since 2018 · 42 posts · 32 votes
Sharing some numbers from my Q3 2026 Columbus multifamily review.
Renters absorbed just over 8,000 units over the past 12 months, the highest in five years. That still covers only about 78% of the record 10,333 units delivered in the same period. Demand has been strong for three years running. It just hasn't kept pace with construction.
The gap of roughly 2,300 units is landing in two places. New Class A lease-ups are competing on concessions. Older Class B products then feel it, because renters can move up to a newer unit at a discount.
The pipeline is turning. Units under construction dropped to about 7,300, down from roughly 9,000 the prior quarter, and 2027 deliveries are forecast to fall 44%. Everything already under construction still has to lease up, though, so I'm not expecting meaningful rent growth through much of 2027. Relief is in sight, but it isn't here yet.
For those operating Class B in Columbus, are you seeing stronger demand lately? or still weak as the past couple of years?
Hi @Davide Formica, nice to meet you here on BP. Thanks for laying out the absorption math so clearly. The Class B squeeze you describe is what I'd watch most closely, because concessions at new lease ups pull renters up and leave older product competing on price. When we review deals in our co-investing club, I'd want to see a Class B business plan underwritten with flat rents through 2027 and a realistic concession budget. A plan that needs rents to jump in year one would worry me. The 44% drop in deliveries is encouraging, but the operators who make it through this stretch will be the ones whose debt can carry them until relief shows up.
Hi @Davide Formica, nice to meet you here on BP. Thanks for laying out the absorption math so clearly. The Class B squeeze you describe is what I'd watch most closely, because concessions at new lease ups pull renters up and leave older product competing on price. When we review deals in our co-investing club, I'd want to see a Class B business plan underwritten with flat rents through 2027 and a realistic concession budget. A plan that needs rents to jump in year one would worry me. The 44% drop in deliveries is encouraging, but the operators who make it through this stretch will be the ones whose debt can carry them until relief shows up.
Agree on your recipe: "flat rents through 2027 and a realistic concession budget". While the data shows signs of relief, it will take more time for the apartment backlog to digest.
Davide, the 8,000+ units absorbed sounds encouraging, but that 2,300-unit gap between absorption and deliveries is the number I’d be watching most closely.
For investors, I think the bigger question is what that supply does to actual rents, concessions, occupancy, and NOI, especially for Class B properties competing against newer units offering incentives. It also seems like this could create an interesting buying environment if some owners start feeling enough pressure to sell. The opportunity may not necessarily be in the newest product, but in finding an older property where the pricing reflects the current competition and there's a clear path to improving operations.
I'd also be looking at the numbers after property taxes, insurance, CapEx, and the tax impact of depreciation rather than relying on headline rent growth. Curious to see whether that 2027 delivery drop actually starts translating into stronger rent growth or whether the existing pipeline keeps the market balanced longer.
Feel free to DM me, I’d be happy to send over a few resources that might be helpful.
Indeed, operators face pressure today; holding is a luxury not everyone can afford. This is the perfect storm: flat rents with higher-than-usual vacancy, high taxes and insurance costs, and high interest rates.
I wish everyone good luck coming out of this brutal cycle, hopefully sooner rather than later.
That absorption number with deliveries still ahead of it is exactly why Class A concessions are sticking around — and why Class B is feeling the squeeze. For smaller investors, that's actually the setup: value-add Class B/C while the institutions wait for the supply wave to pass.
The 44% drop in 2027 deliveries is the number to watch. If that holds, rent stabilization follows, and the deals bought during the concession window look a lot better in hindsight.
this is a really interesting report, thank you for supplying, perhaps I'm missing something but the "top markets" section where they indicate the sales metrics still look like pretty "decent" cap rates and prices per unit that are being demanded, just something that is contrary at least in my eyes to some of the "multi family Meltdown" or whatnot everyone has been yelling about for a while.