Great question, Spencer — and the answer separates the investors who build wealth from the ones who just collect cash flow. I always encourage my investor clients to look at total return, not just monthly cash flow. Mortgage paydown is forced savings, tax advantages (depreciation, deductions) can meaningfully change your after-tax return, and appreciation — while never guaranteed — is where long-term wealth actually compounds. For the calculations, BiggerPockets' rental calculators factor in loan paydown over time, and a quick chat with your CPA can help you estimate the tax side for your situation. The investors I see doing best underwrite conservatively on cash flow but absolutely weigh these three when comparing a rental to other investments.
I don’t have a calculator or anything. For the tax benefits, you’d calculate depreciation and amortization multiplied by your tax rate. I’m sure there are calculators out there though!
@Spencer Dixon I’d separate cash flow, principal paydown, and estimated tax impact rather than roll everything into one return figure. For paydown, Vertex42’s Loan Amortization Schedule is worth a look: it separates principal and interest, tracks the remaining balance, and supports extra payments on fixed-rate loans. I’d total the principal column for each year and keep that equity growth separate from spendable cash flow.
For taxes, I’d use a separate worksheet based on rental income, deductible expenses, interest, and depreciation—not assume every paper loss produces an immediate refund. Loss limitations can defer the benefit, so I’d have a CPA validate the assumptions for your situation. Your approach to appreciation makes sense to me: keep it out of the base case, and test renovation-driven value gains separately after accounting for the project’s costs. I’d want the deal to stand on its operating numbers before relying on projected tax savings or appreciation.