Today, these single-family homes cost $350,000–$475,000 and attract exceptionally reliable renters:Average stay: 5+ yearsVacancy rate (600+ properties delivered): <2%Evictions in 17+ years: 7During the 2008 crash: rents held, vacancies did not increaseTypical property maintenance: ~$400/yearWhy New Homes Don’t WorkDesirable Las Vegas land costs exceed $1M/acre, so new single family homes start around $550,000.

LOL  Whether or not this translates to another housing market crash remains to be seen. 

I talked with my attorney who really hasn't done any short sales since the crash.

I said "disruption" not crash. 

That keeps sale prices elevated.”If this holds true, this proves we are not heading for a crash of any kind in real estate.

That spread creates opportunity—especially on properties that missed their window earlier in the year.Zooming out:YEAR-TO-DATE NEW LISTINGS2024: 20,3512025: 23,103That’s 2,752 additional sellers competing for attention in 2025.This isn’t a crash.

Enjoy the read and love to hear your feedback2026 will not be defined by a market crash or rapid recovery, but by recalibration.

One I recall out of Eugene Oregon was an infill I loaned 500k at  6 points and 12 % Plus 25% of the ups.. it cooked off in less than a year and the Ups if I recall right were about 250k on top of my 6 points and 12%.. that was prior to the crash though :)  Right now I am doing the same thing with smaller builders little bit different but being their capital partner with % return set on a note and then % of upsides these should yield 30% plus cash on cash in 12 months or less. 

During the last crash, I left banking and myself and another couple of banking executives started buying bad loans out of banks.

To put this in perspective, there's more people willing to spend $1,000 to be driven around the hood for a day in a party bus on a social media guru led tour believing they are getting a "crash course" on renovating houses than will spend $1,000 for proactive related legal or tax services.