The buying market has changed significantly due to the war in Ukraine and an influx of foreigners and money into the country - that also led to a short term surge in the STR space.Our personal situation has also changed more recently — we now have a young child, and our priorities have shifted slightly from pure growth toward a bit more stability, risk management and financial freedom.

New build with unfinished basements is a gold-mine for this. 8 into 16. 16 into 32 and were DONE with Growth Phase.

National sentiment is heavy right now.4.8% of household debt is delinquent — highest in nearly a decade.Pending home sales just hit the lowest level ever recorded.49% of Americans say they’re struggling to pay rent or mortgages.U.S. adult optimism just fell to 59.2%, the lowest ever recorded by Gallup.That’s the macro mood.Pressure.Caution.Uncertainty.When optimism drops, hesitation rises.And hesitation freezes people in place.But here’s where it gets interesting.While national optimism is falling…Louisville posted a 0.6% rent increase last month — the third highest rent gain in the entire country.Third.That’s demand.Rent growth reflects tenant demand.Tenant demand supports landlord confidence.Confidence stabilizes markets.Now layer in something else quietly shifting.Interest rates are now at their lowest level since September of 2022.Lower rates increase affordability.Affordability increases activity.And historically, transaction volume increases roughly 33% beginning in March as the spring market kicks in.So here’s the setup:National optimism is low.Louisville rent growth is strong.Rates are improving.Spring activity is about to accelerate.Meanwhile, locally:Single-family homes:• 2,610 active listings• 1,080 sitting 60+ days• 847 sitting 90+ days• 599 sitting 120+ daysMultifamily:• 86 available• 51 sitting 60+ days• 39 sitting 90+ days• 33 sitting 120+ daysInventory aging + rates easing + spring demand approaching = leverage window.In uncertain markets, people consume more information.More articles.More charts.More analysis.But action reduces fear.James Clear said it well:“Learning more will increase knowledge, but only attempting more will reduce fear.

That’s what allows them to refinance later and reinvest that capital into the next deal.Real estate markets go through cycles, but the ability to buy distressed or underperforming properties and improve them tends to work in most conditions.Out of curiosity, are you currently focusing on a specific market, or are you still exploring different areas?

Has anyone noticed population growth or rental stability in the metro area (not just downtown)?

That said, what I don’t have at this stage is the ability to write a large down payment check compared to U.S.

While each step of the BRRR matters, the refinance stage is often the most under looked key that unlocks your ability to move on to the next investment. 

The tradeoff is that a large amount of your equity would remain tied up in a single family home, which tends to grow slower from a portfolio standpoint than small multifamily.The decision usually comes down to whether you value the steady cash flow or the ability to redeploy that equity into larger assets.

In 2021 prop 19 passed where your ability to inherit the property tax was limited.  

we currently Airbnb the ADU which is great for us as we can use the place for family visits, part of the building is a shop for my business which saves on business expenses, and the profit from the airbnb essentially cancels out our mortgage.we could confidently rent the two dwellings for at least $5500 total against about $2600 combined mortgage/heloc .pros of renting: generate monthly cash flow which will alleviate increase in monthly outlay as our next property will be more expensive at a higher mortgage rate; continue to build equity in a market defined by increasing scarcity. pros of selling/cons of renting: alleviate our somewhat house poor condition (lots of equity in the house), ability to diversify and get some of that money into the stock market, don't have to worry about tenants.