this right here is the gem advice. This was Ukrainian village, wicker, Humboldt park (this one I never understood since it’s not near a train), west loop, university village, little village, and Pilsen.
Gentrification starts with racism. Call it nicely it’s market inefficiency but recognize that Chicago historically is a very segregated city. It was only within the last 30 years has the upper middle class incomes start to spread out of the lake.
Gentrification follows the formula of cheap rent+ east commute to downtown + open vacant space for restaurants and bars + proximity to another gentrified neighborhood that is getting to expensive so people expand their search to surrounding. Thats the wicker, buck town, logan , and now Avondale expansion.
There are some area I don’t think will ever gentrify even in the north side. Like Albany park. It just lacks the opportunity for commute and restaurant scene. Chicago has no east west train line that it really needs, It’s already too expensive for anyone to invest, but not expensive enough to really build out. It’s just going to slowing increase with inflation. The closer to get to i94 the more valuable it’ll be, but it won’t go crazy like Logan or Avondale.
The south side is great opportunity, but growing up in the south side I can tell you That anything south of 31st is gonna be for a long hauler. The reality is there’s too much space to fill up as part of the gentrification. The density isn’t there and won’t get there for a long while. Chicago need another million people in population to force us to push south. You can see Bridgeport is just building in old industrial space. Pilsen is filling in and replacing buildings north of cermak. But there’s still quite a bit of open availability that needs to fill in before expansion occurs.
Real Estate Agent · Chicago, IL · Member since 2017 · 2k+ posts · 2k+ votes
1y
@John Clark haha in Albany Park there are now million+ new builds and 2 units in average condition sell 5-600s. It most definitely is gentrified and getting nicer and nicer. Rents are also going up 10%+ yoy there right now.
"I have a very simple criteria for when an area is gentrifying as opposed to just generally improving: If it makes economic sense to buy (at market price) and tear down an existing structure in order to build and immediately sell a new building, then the area is gentrifying. General improvement is not gentrification.
So gentrification only occurs in areas with the right infrastructure that have hit bottom. Albany Park, West Elsdon, Hegewisch -- those places will never gentrify. They will improve, but never "pop." Why? They never hit bottom. Bronzeville hit bottom. It's gentrifying."
@John Clark haha in Albany Park there are now million+ new builds and 2 units in average condition sell 5-600s. It most definitely is gentrified and getting nicer and nicer. Rents are also going up 10%+ yoy there right now.
"I have a very simple criteria for when an area is gentrifying as opposed to just generally improving: If it makes economic sense to buy (at market price) and tear down an existing structure in order to build and immediately sell a new building, then the area is gentrifying. General improvement is not gentrification.
So gentrification only occurs in areas with the right infrastructure that have hit bottom. Albany Park, West Elsdon, Hegewisch -- those places will never gentrify. They will improve, but never "pop." Why? They never hit bottom. Bronzeville hit bottom. It's gentrifying."
I used to live in Mayfair. Albany Park surprises me, particularly as to new builds. Older houses going for $600k isn’t gentrification though. Are the new builds the result of buying to tear down?
Real Estate Agent · Chicago, IL · Member since 2017 · 2k+ posts · 2k+ votes
1y
Yes they are buying old homes to tear down to build there now. I predict Albany Park turns into the next Lincoln Square and gets even pricier. It's got train stops and checks the boxes for homeowners. You can still get cashflowing 4 units there though which sell mostly to investors, its just the sf and 2 units that have gone crazy on price recently. Seen the same by me in Rogers Park 2 units going into 6-800s but 4 units still cashflow and have not appreciated as much. Different buyer pools homeowner vs investors and the returns are definitely in the 4 units or in value adding the 2s. Right by clark and Devon just few hundred meters out of rogers park into edgewater new builds going into 1.4s. It’s pushing in. Whenever rates fall going to cash out refi again my Roger’s park 4 now getting close to 500k total profit off that one deal now.
2 years later in Nov 2024, i am checking in to see everyone's opinion to the question on the original post. - What do you think will be the
Next gentrifying neighborhoods in and around Chicago?
Glad you reposted this questions as many people have said in the past- Follow the train stations- Green and Pink lines are still good for developement.
Contractor · Chicago, IL · Member since 2016 · 4k+ posts · 2k+ votes
4mo
Following the L lines in Chicago is always a rather safe play for following improvement and gentrification! I like those areas you mentioned @John Clark!
Also, a fan of the areas west of 90, like Washington Park, Bronzesville, Woodlawn, South Shore, etc. but its a bit more block by block and longer term play.
Real Estate Agent · Chicago, IL · Member since 2017 · 2k+ posts · 2k+ votes
4mo
Funny seeing this year later. Rogers Park rents up double digit percent since last year and seeing rapid gentrification. Albany Park still seeing the growth and of course as @Jonathan Klemm you can not go wrong if along the L lines. I think United Center area may see rapid growth as west loop pushes out further.