Analysis Paralysis - do I change my preferred market to get cash flow properties

Analysis Paralysis - do I change my preferred market to get cash flow properties

Scott FalveyPro Member
Member since 2023 · 22 posts · 12 votes

I'm ready to jump in and buy my first actual investment (non-house hack/already doing it). I'm 50+ years old and generally want to purchase cash flow properties as I inch toward retirement. I'm in a fairly transient area in MD and the market is very competitive with primary focus on condos and apartments (longer term goal, in a couple years maybe - MF properties). Like many, I'm finding it difficult to locate properties in my preferred location that'll cashflow. I'm also starting to connect with wholesalers so I'm starting to see off market properties too. I have also come across some that require fixing up (which I'm not afraid to do) but they're a little out of my preferred location. I'm not fluent with classifying assets/markets but would guess my preferred market to be "B" and the "out of my preferred market" opportunities would probably be B-/C+.

However, I just came across several properties that are about an hour and a half away that are in good shape and will actually cash flow. I'm considering a "package" of three condos that are discounted from market rate compared to a similar one in the same community. I would guess the area is class "C/C-". The area also has a higher than State average crime rate. On the flip side, the area is experiencing growth over at least the last three years.

So, I'm stuck at, should I consider purchasing an hour and a half away for a property that seems like it doesn't need much work but will cash flow right out of the gate (planning to self manage) but is in a higher than average crime area but in a growing area, or should I be patient and diligent in seeking the good deals in my local/preferred area? 

Should I consider pre-foreclosure and auction properties in my preferred area- though I admit, the idea is intimidating since I'm new and don't know where to start or who to contact at what stage in this arena.

I'm looking forward to and appreciate everybody's comments! 

1Reply
46 views

Most Popular Reply

Randall AlanPro Member
Investor · Lakeland, FL · Member since 2017 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
3y
Quote from @Scott Falvey:

I'm ready to jump in and buy my first actual investment (non-house hack/already doing it). I'm 50+ years old and generally want to purchase cash flow properties as I inch toward retirement. I'm in a fairly transient area in MD and the market is very competitive with primary focus on condos and apartments (longer term goal, in a couple years maybe - MF properties). Like many, I'm finding it difficult to locate properties in my preferred location that'll cashflow. I'm also starting to connect with wholesalers so I'm starting to see off market properties too. I have also come across some that require fixing up (which I'm not afraid to do) but they're a little out of my preferred location. I'm not fluent with classifying assets/markets but would guess my preferred market to be "B" and the "out of my preferred market" opportunities would probably be B-/C+.

However, I just came across several properties that are about an hour and a half away that are in good shape and will actually cash flow. I'm considering a "package" of three condos that are discounted from market rate compared to a similar one in the same community. I would guess the area is class "C/C-". The area also has a higher than State average crime rate. On the flip side, the area is experiencing growth over at least the last three years.

So, I'm stuck at, should I consider purchasing an hour and a half away for a property that seems like it doesn't need much work but will cash flow right out of the gate (planning to self manage) but is in a higher than average crime area but in a growing area, or should I be patient and diligent in seeking the good deals in my local/preferred area? 

Should I consider pre-foreclosure and auction properties in my preferred area- though I admit, the idea is intimidating since I'm new and don't know where to start or who to contact at what stage in this arena.

I'm looking forward to and appreciate everybody's comments! 

I'm 53, and have 37 units we self manage...Started buying when I was 47

A couple of words of advice and caution. On Condos - be sure you are accounting for the HOA fees in your analysis. Also know that HOAs are a major PITA to deal with at times. Some have rules that you can't rent the unit, or you can't AirBnB the unit. Some limit these by a percentage of the units in the building. They also have many rules that will typically frustrate landlords - like minimum lease term to tenants, the color of the unit, etc, etc, etc. Not to mention assessments that they can charge you. I personally try to avoid HOA properties so that I can be in complete control of my own situation. HOA fees don't go down... only up!

Auctions done through the county where I am at are cash only deals.  You bid on a website just like eBay, and if you win the final payment is due the next day by noon or you lose your 5% deposit you already paid.  Don't know the deal in MD, but many are similar... just make sure you understand the rules. We have bought 2 properties off the foreclosure market.  Your first move after getting the title is to usually kick out whoever is still living there.  You also don't know the condition of those properties.  One that we bought the guy had 10 cats and 10 litter boxes he hadn't changed in years.  Even after stripping all the carpet out, the unit still wreaked of cat urine.  We were able to rent the unit back to the tenant though, so that worked out in the short term.  

Next - know what a good deal is. For me, after accounting for principle, interest, taxes, insurance, and a $100 maintenance reserve, I want to at least make $300 a month in profit (at a minimum). So cash flow of $75 a month would be a nonstarter. One way to look at this is your ROI. Say you were buying a $100,000 condo and had to put done 25%. In return you are going to net $200 a month after the expenses listed above. You are earning $2,400 in a year, on a $25,000 investment. That's a 9.6% ROI (ignoring anything else that comes along the way). If you were only earning $100/month - your ROI would be 4.8%. Some high yield savings accounts are paying better than 4.8% right now. So $100 a month would be a bad investment in my opinion.

Also, understand that your property taxes will increase once you buy your property.  If you are paying 3x what the previous owner paid for the property, your property taxes could in all likelihood triple at the end of the first year of ownership.  Your property taxes will be calculated the November following your purchase date and you will get a new bill in the mail that says, "Here is your new tax rate."  Keep in mind that if you didn't start escrowing for those higher taxes, you will also get an escrow shortage notice from your lender who will not only increase your payment for the shortage, but increase it again for the coming year to the new tax rate.  This can be hundreds of dollars a month in increased expenses - quickly wiping out a $300/month profit.

Finally - know that it is just a really expensive time to try and get started.  Both houses and money are expensive, and market pressure should help push housing prices down over the short term.   By buying now you are committing in the short term to paying hundreds of dollars extra a month in interest that if you waited a little you could avoid.  Sure, you can refi down the road when rates drop, but that comes with a $3,000-$5,000 price tag.  Probably 3-4 years worth of mortgage pay down you will lose to a refi.  So my advice would to be patient with the market and let both rates and housing prices settle a little.  I have read articles that suggest that mortgage rates will drop into the mid 5's by the end of the year (just someones guess, but supposedly educated).     

All the best!

Randy

@Scott Falvey

See this reply in the discussion

12 Replies

Jump to latestLatest
  • Randall AlanPro Member
    Investor · Lakeland, FL · Member since 2017 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    3y
    Quote from @Scott Falvey:

    I'm ready to jump in and buy my first actual investment (non-house hack/already doing it). I'm 50+ years old and generally want to purchase cash flow properties as I inch toward retirement. I'm in a fairly transient area in MD and the market is very competitive with primary focus on condos and apartments (longer term goal, in a couple years maybe - MF properties). Like many, I'm finding it difficult to locate properties in my preferred location that'll cashflow. I'm also starting to connect with wholesalers so I'm starting to see off market properties too. I have also come across some that require fixing up (which I'm not afraid to do) but they're a little out of my preferred location. I'm not fluent with classifying assets/markets but would guess my preferred market to be "B" and the "out of my preferred market" opportunities would probably be B-/C+.

    However, I just came across several properties that are about an hour and a half away that are in good shape and will actually cash flow. I'm considering a "package" of three condos that are discounted from market rate compared to a similar one in the same community. I would guess the area is class "C/C-". The area also has a higher than State average crime rate. On the flip side, the area is experiencing growth over at least the last three years.

    So, I'm stuck at, should I consider purchasing an hour and a half away for a property that seems like it doesn't need much work but will cash flow right out of the gate (planning to self manage) but is in a higher than average crime area but in a growing area, or should I be patient and diligent in seeking the good deals in my local/preferred area? 

    Should I consider pre-foreclosure and auction properties in my preferred area- though I admit, the idea is intimidating since I'm new and don't know where to start or who to contact at what stage in this arena.

    I'm looking forward to and appreciate everybody's comments! 

    I'm 53, and have 37 units we self manage...Started buying when I was 47

    A couple of words of advice and caution. On Condos - be sure you are accounting for the HOA fees in your analysis. Also know that HOAs are a major PITA to deal with at times. Some have rules that you can't rent the unit, or you can't AirBnB the unit. Some limit these by a percentage of the units in the building. They also have many rules that will typically frustrate landlords - like minimum lease term to tenants, the color of the unit, etc, etc, etc. Not to mention assessments that they can charge you. I personally try to avoid HOA properties so that I can be in complete control of my own situation. HOA fees don't go down... only up!

    Auctions done through the county where I am at are cash only deals.  You bid on a website just like eBay, and if you win the final payment is due the next day by noon or you lose your 5% deposit you already paid.  Don't know the deal in MD, but many are similar... just make sure you understand the rules. We have bought 2 properties off the foreclosure market.  Your first move after getting the title is to usually kick out whoever is still living there.  You also don't know the condition of those properties.  One that we bought the guy had 10 cats and 10 litter boxes he hadn't changed in years.  Even after stripping all the carpet out, the unit still wreaked of cat urine.  We were able to rent the unit back to the tenant though, so that worked out in the short term.  

    Next - know what a good deal is. For me, after accounting for principle, interest, taxes, insurance, and a $100 maintenance reserve, I want to at least make $300 a month in profit (at a minimum). So cash flow of $75 a month would be a nonstarter. One way to look at this is your ROI. Say you were buying a $100,000 condo and had to put done 25%. In return you are going to net $200 a month after the expenses listed above. You are earning $2,400 in a year, on a $25,000 investment. That's a 9.6% ROI (ignoring anything else that comes along the way). If you were only earning $100/month - your ROI would be 4.8%. Some high yield savings accounts are paying better than 4.8% right now. So $100 a month would be a bad investment in my opinion.

    Also, understand that your property taxes will increase once you buy your property.  If you are paying 3x what the previous owner paid for the property, your property taxes could in all likelihood triple at the end of the first year of ownership.  Your property taxes will be calculated the November following your purchase date and you will get a new bill in the mail that says, "Here is your new tax rate."  Keep in mind that if you didn't start escrowing for those higher taxes, you will also get an escrow shortage notice from your lender who will not only increase your payment for the shortage, but increase it again for the coming year to the new tax rate.  This can be hundreds of dollars a month in increased expenses - quickly wiping out a $300/month profit.

    Finally - know that it is just a really expensive time to try and get started.  Both houses and money are expensive, and market pressure should help push housing prices down over the short term.   By buying now you are committing in the short term to paying hundreds of dollars extra a month in interest that if you waited a little you could avoid.  Sure, you can refi down the road when rates drop, but that comes with a $3,000-$5,000 price tag.  Probably 3-4 years worth of mortgage pay down you will lose to a refi.  So my advice would to be patient with the market and let both rates and housing prices settle a little.  I have read articles that suggest that mortgage rates will drop into the mid 5's by the end of the year (just someones guess, but supposedly educated).     

    All the best!

    Randy

    @Scott Falvey

  • Joe VilleneuvePro Member
    Plymouth, MI · Member since 2013 · 13k+ posts · 19k+ votes
    3y

    Market preference should be based on making money.

  • Scott FalveyPro Member
    OP
    Member since 2023 · 22 posts · 12 votes
    3y
    Quote from @Randall Alan:
    Quote from @Scott Falvey:

    I'm ready to jump in and buy my first actual investment (non-house hack/already doing it). I'm 50+ years old and generally want to purchase cash flow properties as I inch toward retirement. I'm in a fairly transient area in MD and the market is very competitive with primary focus on condos and apartments (longer term goal, in a couple years maybe - MF properties). Like many, I'm finding it difficult to locate properties in my preferred location that'll cashflow. I'm also starting to connect with wholesalers so I'm starting to see off market properties too. I have also come across some that require fixing up (which I'm not afraid to do) but they're a little out of my preferred location. I'm not fluent with classifying assets/markets but would guess my preferred market to be "B" and the "out of my preferred market" opportunities would probably be B-/C+.

    However, I just came across several properties that are about an hour and a half away that are in good shape and will actually cash flow. I'm considering a "package" of three condos that are discounted from market rate compared to a similar one in the same community. I would guess the area is class "C/C-". The area also has a higher than State average crime rate. On the flip side, the area is experiencing growth over at least the last three years.

    So, I'm stuck at, should I consider purchasing an hour and a half away for a property that seems like it doesn't need much work but will cash flow right out of the gate (planning to self manage) but is in a higher than average crime area but in a growing area, or should I be patient and diligent in seeking the good deals in my local/preferred area? 

    Should I consider pre-foreclosure and auction properties in my preferred area- though I admit, the idea is intimidating since I'm new and don't know where to start or who to contact at what stage in this arena.

    I'm looking forward to and appreciate everybody's comments! 

    I'm 53, and have 37 units we self manage...Started buying when I was 47

    A couple of words of advice and caution. On Condos - be sure you are accounting for the HOA fees in your analysis. Also know that HOAs are a major PITA to deal with at times. Some have rules that you can't rent the unit, or you can't AirBnB the unit. Some limit these by a percentage of the units in the building. They also have many rules that will typically frustrate landlords - like minimum lease term to tenants, the color of the unit, etc, etc, etc. Not to mention assessments that they can charge you. I personally try to avoid HOA properties so that I can be in complete control of my own situation. HOA fees don't go down... only up!

    Auctions done through the county where I am at are cash only deals.  You bid on a website just like eBay, and if you win the final payment is due the next day by noon or you lose your 5% deposit you already paid.  Don't know the deal in MD, but many are similar... just make sure you understand the rules. We have bought 2 properties off the foreclosure market.  Your first move after getting the title is to usually kick out whoever is still living there.  You also don't know the condition of those properties.  One that we bought the guy had 10 cats and 10 litter boxes he hadn't changed in years.  Even after stripping all the carpet out, the unit still wreaked of cat urine.  We were able to rent the unit back to the tenant though, so that worked out in the short term.  

    Next - know what a good deal is. For me, after accounting for principle, interest, taxes, insurance, and a $100 maintenance reserve, I want to at least make $300 a month in profit (at a minimum). So cash flow of $75 a month would be a nonstarter. One way to look at this is your ROI. Say you were buying a $100,000 condo and had to put done 25%. In return you are going to net $200 a month after the expenses listed above. You are earning $2,400 in a year, on a $25,000 investment. That's a 9.6% ROI (ignoring anything else that comes along the way). If you were only earning $100/month - your ROI would be 4.8%. Some high yield savings accounts are paying better than 4.8% right now. So $100 a month would be a bad investment in my opinion.

    Also, understand that your property taxes will increase once you buy your property.  If you are paying 3x what the previous owner paid for the property, your property taxes could in all likelihood triple at the end of the first year of ownership.  Your property taxes will be calculated the November following your purchase date and you will get a new bill in the mail that says, "Here is your new tax rate."  Keep in mind that if you didn't start escrowing for those higher taxes, you will also get an escrow shortage notice from your lender who will not only increase your payment for the shortage, but increase it again for the coming year to the new tax rate.  This can be hundreds of dollars a month in increased expenses - quickly wiping out a $300/month profit.

    Finally - know that it is just a really expensive time to try and get started.  Both houses and money are expensive, and market pressure should help push housing prices down over the short term.   By buying now you are committing in the short term to paying hundreds of dollars extra a month in interest that if you waited a little you could avoid.  Sure, you can refi down the road when rates drop, but that comes with a $3,000-$5,000 price tag.  Probably 3-4 years worth of mortgage pay down you will lose to a refi.  So my advice would to be patient with the market and let both rates and housing prices settle a little.  I have read articles that suggest that mortgage rates will drop into the mid 5's by the end of the year (just someones guess, but supposedly educated).     

    All the best!

    Randy

    @Scott Falvey

    Randy - thank you for the response and advice. I hope to have 10 units in the next 3-5 years and will gladly take on more if I can get them - I can currently only dream of having 35. My current house hack is a condo with an HOA and they definitely have some things to say about renters. That experience made me wise to be sure I know the condo/HOA rules before I purchase.

    I also hear the expression that HOA fees don't go down, but how does that compare to maintaining a single family property? That cost doesn't go down either unless you invest the time/money up front to reduce the longer term costs. 

    For Auctions, or foreclosures/pre-forclosures/bankruptcies, should I have an attorney involved for the first one or two (or all of them) to have the legal guidance? My understanding is that you can contact different parties depending on the financial stage the property is in, but I don't know who to contact when.

    Thanks for the advice on the investment. For my first property, I'll be thrilled to get something that cash flows especially in my area where the market is highly competitive. Once I've got something under my belt I can start to seek out the great deal and look forward to greater cash flow and forced appreciation.

    "Be patient" - it's difficult to not get frustrated. I'm not going to buy something that doesn't produce cash flow and will wait if I have to (again - it's frustrating where things are today) but if I find something that cash flows, I'm going to try and scoop it up.


    I appreciate your input and time spent typing your response. I'm sure you have better things to do, so I value that - thank you!

  • Scott FalveyPro Member
    OP
    Member since 2023 · 22 posts · 12 votes
    3y
    Quote from @Joe Villeneuve:

    Market preference should be based on making money.


     Thanks Joe! - I want to make money!!

  • Investor · Fairfax, VA · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 801 votes
    3y

    What is your preferred market?  

  • Scott FalveyPro Member
    OP
    Member since 2023 · 22 posts · 12 votes
    3y
    Quote from @John M.:

    What is your preferred market?  

    The triangle between DC, Baltimore and Hagerstown MD. I'm currently not interested in the DC and Batimore city proper, but outside of them.

    There are more small MF opportunities as you go north. I'm considering moving toward the small MF market.

  • Ned CareyPro Member
    Moderator
    Investor · Baltimore, MD · Member since 2008 · 17k+ posts · 13k+ votes
    3y

    @Scott Falvey
            "I also hear the expression that HOA fees don't go down, but how does that compare to maintaining a single family property? That cost doesn't go down either unless you invest the time/money up front to reduce the longer term costs."


    One problem with condos is you have no control. If a condo is poorly run it can hurt. As you mentioned in the above quote you do have some control over costs for non condo/HOA prperties.

    Regarding Multi family - Why?  Multi family is NOT automaticaly better. Back to what @Joe Villeneuve says; choose based on makeing money. If a SFH will bring a better return go that way. In Baltimore city SFHs tended to bring much better cash flow returns than Multi Family.

    PS: since you are new Joe V. would be a good guy to follow.. HIs posts are alwys wise.

    PPS: He has more votes than posts.  He got them the legitimate way by earning them with good posts. 

  • Joe VilleneuvePro Member
    Plymouth, MI · Member since 2013 · 13k+ posts · 19k+ votes
    3y
    Quote from @Ned Carey:

    @Scott Falvey
            "I also hear the expression that HOA fees don't go down, but how does that compare to maintaining a single family property? That cost doesn't go down either unless you invest the time/money up front to reduce the longer term costs."


    One problem with condos is you have no control. If a condo is poorly run it can hurt. As you mentioned in the above quote you do have some control over costs for non condo/HOA prperties.

    Regarding Multi family - Why?  Multi family is NOT automaticaly better. Back to what @Joe Villeneuve says; choose based on makeing money. If a SFH will bring a better return go that way. In Baltimore city SFHs tended to bring much better cash flow returns than Multi Family.

    PS: since you are new Joe V. would be a good guy to follow.. HIs posts are alwys wise.

    PPS: He has more votes than posts.  He got them the legitimate way by earning them with good posts. 

    Thanks Ned.  I assure you, the feeling is mutual.
    Now back to the topic.  "Follow the Money".  If you want to collect properties, buy anything that you can get, based on what it will take for the Seller to agree to terms...regardless of how much money you lose.  If you want to make money (look up  the word "investing" in the dictionary), then you only buy based on what terms "you" will agree to, and ONLY when those terms make you money. 
  • Member since 2023 · 10 posts · 1 vote
    3y
    Quote from @Ned Carey:

    @Scott Falvey
            "I also hear the expression that HOA fees don't go down, but how does that compare to maintaining a single family property? That cost doesn't go down either unless you invest the time/money up front to reduce the longer term costs."


    One problem with condos is you have no control. If a condo is poorly run it can hurt. As you mentioned in the above quote you do have some control over costs for non condo/HOA prperties.

    Regarding Multi family - Why?  Multi family is NOT automaticaly better. Back to what @Joe Villeneuve says; choose based on makeing money. If a SFH will bring a better return go that way. In Baltimore city SFHs tended to bring much better cash flow returns than Multi Family.

    PS: since you are new Joe V. would be a good guy to follow.. HIs posts are alwys wise.

    PPS: He has more votes than posts.  He got them the legitimate way by earning them with good posts. 


     Hi Ned, I'm curious how did you come to the conclusion that SFHs are better than Multi Family in Baltimore? Also curious, as a new investor, how you typically source rental deals in the Baltimore area?

  • Ned CareyPro Member
    Moderator
    Investor · Baltimore, MD · Member since 2008 · 17k+ posts · 13k+ votes
    3y

    @Tony Allen It is simple. Ther has been an explosion of gurus selling courses pushing multi family. Also "house hacking" has increased demand for small muti fmaily.  High demand for muti family has cause the prices to rise. When prices rise returns go down. 

    While in Baltimore today the situation has leveld off but for a while youbcould buy SFH that would cash flow much better on a Cash on Cash basis that you could small Multi family.

    Most of my properties come via foreclosures. But there are as many ways to find deals as ther are investors. What works for you given your goals, financial capacity and experience may not work for someone else. There have been soe very old forum and blog posts here on how to find deals 100 ways (or maybe 101 ways). TO get started try auctions, wholeslaers, direct mail, listed properties, For sale by owner, Vacant houses, etc. 

    I have been going through the MLS that sale couple of days comping properties. I am surprised at some of the deals I see people have picked up via listed properties.

  • Member since 2023 · 10 posts · 1 vote
    3y

    Thanks @Ned Carey. That makes a lot of sense.

  • Scott FalveyPro Member
    OP
    Member since 2023 · 22 posts · 12 votes
    3y
    Quote from @Joe Villeneuve:
    Quote from @Ned Carey:

    @Scott Falvey
            "I also hear the expression that HOA fees don't go down, but how does that compare to maintaining a single family property? That cost doesn't go down either unless you invest the time/money up front to reduce the longer term costs."


    One problem with condos is you have no control. If a condo is poorly run it can hurt. As you mentioned in the above quote you do have some control over costs for non condo/HOA prperties.

    Regarding Multi family - Why?  Multi family is NOT automaticaly better. Back to what @Joe Villeneuve says; choose based on makeing money. If a SFH will bring a better return go that way. In Baltimore city SFHs tended to bring much better cash flow returns than Multi Family.

    PS: since you are new Joe V. would be a good guy to follow.. HIs posts are alwys wise.

    PPS: He has more votes than posts.  He got them the legitimate way by earning them with good posts. 

    Thanks Ned.  I assure you, the feeling is mutual.
    Now back to the topic.  "Follow the Money".  If you want to collect properties, buy anything that you can get, based on what it will take for the Seller to agree to terms...regardless of how much money you lose.  If you want to make money (look up  the word "investing" in the dictionary), then you only buy based on what terms "you" will agree to, and ONLY when those terms make you money. 

    Investing - 1: to commit (money) in order to earn a financial return (Merriam-Webster)

    I think this is what we're all trying to do, at least this is what I'm trying to do.

    The definition certainly brings things back to basics.

Join the conversationCreate a free account to reply, vote on answers and follow this thread.