Am I Being Too Pessimistic?

Am I Being Too Pessimistic?

Maspeth, NY · Member since 2016 · 75 posts · 62 votes

So I'm pretty much ready to start my house hunting process but it seems like my pessimism is overtaking everything that I think. I'm looking at Orange county NY and looking at a 2-4 unit property, where I'll live in one unit and rent the others. It seems like every deal that I look at, I either come to one of the conclusion: the property taxes are too high to pull a decent profit (Monroe); the area isn't a desired area (Port Jervis, Newburgh); or the property needs a lot of work and may have a huge hidden repair that is unknown to it due to old age. I'll be using FHA to finance and have no problem with using the 203k loan for rehab. My goal is to make the property as cheap as possible because I only plan on living in it for the one year required as I purchase another investment afterwards. I run the numbers on the deals accounting for all costs (capex, maintenance, vacancy included), and many seem like good deals.... But I always see myself coming back and questioning myself on whether it really is a good deal based on one of the subjects stated earlier. Am I being too picky or cautious, or is this feeling justified??

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Newburgh, NY · Member since 2016 · 10 posts · 17 votes
9y

@Jon B. As a 17 year resident of Newburgh, I won't argue about the violence in the city, I personally know one of the families of the most recent fatality. The "town" area is not so violent. Nonetheless, people still live here and are not moving. Habitat for Humanity is "in the city" of Newburgh - growing strong!! Discouraging investors is unfair. Everyone investor will and should analyze EVERY property they consider. At the end of the day real estate is risky ANYWHERE, people still need a place to live, and if the numbers work for us we have a decision to make. Wishing you all the best in every endevour. 

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  • Rental Property Investor · Chappaqua, NY · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 947 votes
    7y

    I just love to bump these old Newburgh threads.  Who is happy with the beta that they made just a few short years ago.  

    Anyone have a bead on how much they made or lost based on their strategy location and the current market?

    I was going into contract on my first Newburgh property right about this time two years ago 

  • Real Estate Broker · Newburgh, NY · Member since 2016 · 62 posts · 54 votes
    7y

    @John Hickey oh my goodness, yes. 

    I bought my 2-unit house on Liberty Street for 7k in 2016.... 

    Appraising in the 200ks now. The market will go up and down like everywhere else, but I feel like I've made my fair share of good deals in Newburgh, and acquired some good neighbors, clients, and friends in the process. 

  • Rental Property Investor · Poughkeepsie, NY · Member since 2013 · 262 posts · 96 votes
    7y

    Hi Sarah. That is unbelievable, did you invest a lot in it or was it move in ready.  

    I have bought a lot of 50k homes in Poughkeepsie,but always 30k rehabs min.  They are all arv in the 200’s but nothing like the returns you are talking about.   Congrats.  

    What brought you to newburgh in the first place?

    We’re you like John Hickey, watching it for many years before you jumped in.  

    Just curious?

    I have been working in the area for 14 years and seen a lot of positive.   

  • Rental Property Investor · Chappaqua, NY · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 947 votes
    7y

    @Eric Hrlbock good observations. newburgh has changed. A lot of people are making money right now that bought 2-5 years ago or more.

    But that’s not the end of that story. I think folks that buy now and hold long term will make a fortune. Way more then ppl that sell now. Just me tho. Could be wrong.

    the market will go up and down and up and down.

    Market timers will lose a fortune of course.

    I know I’m sold two houses recently made a partners and I made a killing but I didn’t want to sell.

  • Real Estate Broker · Newburgh, NY · Member since 2016 · 62 posts · 54 votes
    7y

    @Eric Hrlbock Good question... purchase price sure isn't everything! My house needed maybe 20k of work when I bought it for 7k. It was vacant and the roof was leaking with some subsequent water damage, but besides that it was just ugly, not broken. The hair salon on the first floor was totally intact, including supplies the owner just left... we didn't buy shampoo for two years. ;) 
    I choose to put in more because it was going to be my personal home. I'm now moving out and onto the next project because my family grew, but I clear between $1600-1800 in airbnb short term rental income from a smartly designed 700 sq ft studio apartment on the upper floor. I'll keep the downstairs storefront as my RE office. Not bad. 
    Also ended up buying the two properties next door with a partner. These bad boys needed more work, even though they were tenanted. Still, with renovation over this year, I'm looking at a 18% cap rate on one and a 20% cap on the other. Rent roll on three residential and one commercial units went from $3495/mo to $4725/mo in one year, and an art gallery is moving in.  Looots of elbow grease, don't get me wrong. It's not an easy investment area, and I learned a ton about dealing with people in the process. 100% sure it made me a better person with more wrinkles. Newburgh is all about project development, not just straight investment.

  • Rental Property Investor · NY · Member since 2020 · 16 posts · 1 vote
    6y

    @Eric Hrlbock hi i am happy to reach out to you..

    well lats discuss more about Newburgh NY i bought some stuff there as investment i do believe that area is changing .. 

    But its going very slowly.. i expect more at this point so what's your mined !?

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