Stumbled across 200 pad deal - too clean - is it a trap?

Stumbled across 200 pad deal - too clean - is it a trap?

Investor · Redlands, CA · Member since 2015 · 56 posts · 35 votes

Hey guys,

So to the sleuths here - I smell a rat but I can't figure out where it is - 

I have "stumbled" across a 2-park package deal - a "pocket listing" e-mailed to me be a broker I have not done business with, but who lists (and claims to sell) a lot of parks in the mid-west.

Details: 200 pads total, paved roads, 95% occupied at both parks, city water/sewer, tenants pay all utilities including trash, and ZERO park owned homes in the two parks (no, not even any notes - so claims the broker anyway).

Rents are extremely low ($160 at the suburban park and $135 at the more rural one) and have been raised only once in the 10 years the seller has owned the parks (6 months ago).

Location: Park one has over 100 pads in a city of about 30,000 people 40 minutes from a metro of almost 1 million, unemployment rate very low, population growing, located directly next to many good businesses. Park two has under 100 pads but more than 50 - but is in a smaller town of under 10,000 people, 10 miles down the road from park 1. But according to city-data even this small town park is in a town that has grown 30% in the last 10 years and has an unemployment rate well under 5%.

Financing: Broker claims both parks will qualify for bank financing.

Seller will sell one or both parks: Broker claims seller will break the package apart but would prefer a buyer who will swallow up both at once.

Price: None given - seller wants to see what the market will bear and is asking for offers. Broker is telling me offers are coming in around 8-9 caps on actuals. Broker claims rents are under market an immediate $20 as-is and should be $50 higher within 36 months. If I can really immediately raise rents $20 then I should be at almost a 10 cap with two parks that are almost full with no POH's or private utilities to worry about. This seems too good to be true and sets of my "BS" meter.

Seller is located in a nearby state and is supposedly getting out of this state entirely - but owns almost 10 more parks in their home state (but will be selling them soon as well).

Fishy items: 1 - Why would you sell the "ideal" parks if you owned them? 2 - NO POH's? That seems odd - too good to be true. Broker has no explanation except "That's how this company runs their parks." 3 - NO PRICE, no financials available until it goes into diligence - they just want offers. Broker admits this is strange (none of his other listings are marketed this way), is apologetic for the opaqueness of the offer, but claims the seller is serious and just likes to market parks this way and see what the market will bear 4 - Broker also claims to not know why the seller is selling.

Yes I've been to boot camp and will follow to the letter Frank's 30 Day due diligence manual if we get this under contract.

Yes of course I can get it under contract and then see the financials - and I may do just that. But I'm still wondering if anybody has any thoughts on the BS factor of this deal going in. Just doesn't smell right to me.

Any feedback is appreciated!

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  • Mike CumbieBusiness Member
    REALTOR® · Brockport, NY · Member since 2015 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    10y

    Well I have a check, this check has numbers that may have values up to and including the price that is acceptable for the property. Based on the actual numbers this check may increase or decrease in value. 

    Somewhere between 50 and 100 increase are the values I would place the check for property of park 2, followed by a sum of park one that included values of the land henceforth defined. I may also decide that the value is increased or decreased by the value of the actual in the instance or the base variable of the available income to be determined. 

    ...

    Someone has to start somewhere and his is ... Pick a number an we can start... I would tell the broker to give me an idea and details or I wouldn't waste my time.

  • Houston, TX · Member since 2015 · 512 posts · 338 votes
    10y

    Lot rent x number of pads x 70 is the valuation of a Park at a 10% cap and 30% expense ratio.  If rent was so easy to increase they would have done it - don't give them extra money for things they have not done and will not logically explain.

    At the end of the day 90%+ Sellers that won't provide a price are just fishing.  Tell them to come back to you when they decide what they want and can justify it with financials.  Otherwise it's a 10%+ cap offer in my books until they can prove the opposite.

  • Rental Property Investor · Friendswood, TX · Member since 2010 · 663 posts · 508 votes
    10y

    @Chris Reeves

    What are the average home prices of these markets ?

    On the surface , rents seem a bit low based on being so close to a major metro unless the markets maybe not so great. 

    If he is getting an 8 cap offer and it's not under contract .... Sounds like more a story.....

    Also if this guy has 10 parks and they are this size , doesn't seem to fit the profile of one rent raise in 10 years. 

    If they don't have a price on it , offer what makes sense on it and then you will have to work on getting the rest of the sorry together ....:

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