Could this be a good deal even though it has negative cash flow?

Could this be a good deal even though it has negative cash flow?

chicago , IL · Member since 2014 · 61 posts · 3 votes

Hi guys. I'm in the process of purchasing a property, but I just realized it has negative cash flow when I factor in the maintenance and vacancies. However, I think one of the main reasons it has negative cash flow is because I'm going fha and I am putting a small out of money down, which makes the principal and interest payment higher than it would be if i had put down 20% in a conventional loan. I think the deal could improve over time if I refinance into conventional down the line and put more money down.  What do you think? Here are the numbers: 

purchase price is 270,000 

property is a triplex with all 3 units already rented to long term tenants. the bottom tenant is moving out and that is where I will be living for a year. 

Principal and interest is 1300.00

taxes are 2400 a year

insurance is 1800 a year

rents come out to 2100 per month total for all three units.

down payment is 3.5%

Here are a few bonuses

the property is in a really good neighborhood that is up and coming and this is a neighborhood I personally would want to live in for the next year. 

Also, the units are outdated: old kitchens, carpet, etc. With some rehabbing, I could raise the rent so that the total rent for all three units is about 2500 per month. 

So after i move out and get my unit rented. I think I'm looking at about a negative 169 a year or so. but if I refinance, pay down the mortgage and get rid of the PMI, things could look better.

Is this doable? Is this a bad deal? what are your thoughts on this? 

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Investor · Aiken, SC · Member since 2014 · 398 posts · 120 votes
11y

RUN.

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  • Real Estate Investor · San Antonio, TX · Member since 2014 · 785 posts · 190 votes
    11y
    Originally posted by @Joe Villeneuve:

    We had a new person come to our REIC last month that said she and her husband have experience in REI, and they were looking for some answers to questions. By the questions they had, they were lost and headed in the wrong direction...and, by their list of experience and knowledge, that direction was doom.

    Here is their experience and knowledge list:

    1 - Accounting degrees (Masters so less)
    2 - They rebuilt a kitchen.
    3 - They have a relative that is a RE Agent, and a PM.

    They figured they had it made.

    Bwhahahahahahaha! Einstein could be bankrupt in REI in a year if he doesn't understand arithmetic, how to find a deal at the right price and to not over rehab.

  • Hartsdale, NY · Member since 2015 · 874 posts · 218 votes
    11y

    We bought 2 Duplexes.  Side by side, identical duplexes.  Our first buy.

    last year. for 2014 we used all the cash flow (approx 24,000)  to do maintanence on the property  The houses were 25 years old and nothing had been done.  We did major stuff and used all the cash flow to do 1 new roof, gutters, front, 3  bathrooms replaced 3 major appliances and one co kitchen and apartment when there was a vacancy for 2 months.  We spent all the cash flow on the improvements,  but did not use any of our money.  We still have almost one more year of renovations that probably will leave us nothing out of the cash flow for 2015. or almost all of the 2nd year.

    We feel the 2 houses will have appreciated at least 100,000 (for the 2) when we are finished. Tax wise We got a $5,000 tax write off that we needed and we paid approx $2,000 off on our principal.  

    We put 25% down approx $83.000 and the 3rd year our cash flow should be approx $20, 000 0r $22,000a year with the 2 upleses  worth $100.000 or $125,000 more.  Now is this a bad deal, a so so deal or a good deal???  We self manage it, general contract it, know consturction, and do handi man work on it

    What does BP think here

  • Real Estate Investor · San Antonio, TX · Member since 2014 · 785 posts · 190 votes
    11y

    I'm sure others will have more specific feedback, but if you are not putting your own cash into it and are making renovations that add value, it seems like a defensible deal to me! :) You have a path forward with solid cash flow and are improving the asset, from what you say here. I'd say it's a solid deal. Other opinions? 

  • Real Estate Investor · San Antonio, TX · Member since 2014 · 785 posts · 190 votes
    11y

    having solid positive cash flow from the get go is.....pretty important! :) That's what matters above all else. Whatever you do with that cash flow is secondary in my opinion. Either use it to buy more, or improve your current asset to give it higher resale value. Makes a lotta sense to me. 

  • chicago , IL · Member since 2014 · 61 posts · 3 votes
    11y
    Originally posted by @Barbara G.:

    We bought 2 Duplexes.  Side by side, identical duplexes.  Our first buy.

    last year. for 2014 we used all the cash flow (approx 24,000)  to do maintanence on the property  The houses were 25 years old and nothing had been done.  We did major stuff and used all the cash flow to do 1 new roof, gutters, front, 3  bathrooms replaced 3 major appliances and one co kitchen and apartment when there was a vacancy for 2 months.  We spent all the cash flow on the improvements,  but did not use any of our money.  We still have almost one more year of renovations that probably will leave us nothing out of the cash flow for 2015. or almost all of the 2nd year.

    We feel the 2 houses will have appreciated at least 100,000 (for the 2) when we are finished. Tax wise We got a $5,000 tax write off that we needed and we paid approx $2,000 off on our principal.  

    We put 25% down approx $83.000 and the 3rd year our cash flow should be approx $20, 000 0r $22,000a year with the 2 upleses  worth $100.000 or $125,000 more.  Now is this a bad deal, a so so deal or a good deal???  We self manage it, general contract it, know consturction, and do handi man work on it

    What does BP think here

     this sounds like a good deal to me. However, I'm not sure if you're saying its similar to my deal due to the appreciation and what you had to put into it or if you are showing an example of a deal thats opposite of mine because you didnt have to use your own money. 

    where I live: New Jersey/Philadelphia it would be difficult to find a property that cashflowed like this with an FHA loan.

    I see what the other members are saying, but is it very unrealistic to take an FHA down to and 80% ltv by refinancing?? that's all I would need to positive cash flow. all the other stuff..rehabing etc would be extra but the miminum thats needed is to refi.

  • Investor · Cornwall On Hudson, NY · Member since 2014 · 77 posts · 25 votes
    11y

    MAYBE    I seem to be the only one who isn't ready to just say NO.  I want to know more about the deal.  What are the comps in the area?  This should not be a top price with it needing all this renovation.  You are going to live there.  To me that has a significant impact on the deal and it also effects the math.  If the math doesn't work for you, it won't work for anyone-put your numbers in a nice organized order and show the owner why it doesn't work.  20% down is not at all the standard for under 4 units and you shouldn't cut any slack in the price for that.  Some of your expenses look a bit off to me.  Shop the insurance a bit.  For an owner occupied property the insurance seems high.  Call if you want to talk thru the deal...I'll see if I can help and if it is really negative...I'll be saying no too.

  • Hartsdale, NY · Member since 2015 · 874 posts · 218 votes
    11y

    These 2 responses have been very reassuring.  Unfortunatley everything in these duplexes are at the end of their life span and there were a few problems with the electrical and plumbing and water damage that had to be addressed.  We knew about them ahead of time but still we imagined some of the things would hang in longer.  The new aluminum siding front was cosmetic but we wanted to do that.  

  • Hartsdale, NY · Member since 2015 · 874 posts · 218 votes
    11y

    @kay Hamilton

    I see what you are saying

    Suppose you just look at this as a flip.

    If you add up your entire rehab costs and add it to the price of the house you bought (cost + rhab)  will you come out of this with  profit?  What do the real estate comps say about your house rehabbed. What price can you selll this house for once it is rehabbed?   Does this give you a reasonable profit??

    When you occupy the apartment will you be figuring your rent at market value, after all you do have to pay rent?  Then you have to add your profit or subtract your loss to the end selling price.  If you made some cash add it, if you lost cash subtrract it.  

    I don't know if I am explaining this correctly?

    Where are you after you do this?

  • Rental Property Investor · Phoenix/Lima, Arizona/OH · Member since 2012 · 4k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    11y

    @Kay H. - I don't know much, but for this I don't need to...Walk way now!

  • Real Estate Investor · San Antonio, TX · Member since 2014 · 785 posts · 190 votes
    11y

    I'm not real smart, but if see negative numbers on cash flow on a potential 'deal,' I think you're better off going to vegas and trying to hit it big. My perspective is colored by my memory of a couple hundred sleepless nights from 2008-10. 

    Unless getting lots of registered mail is something you get pleasure from (as well as watching the mail truck pull up and get the sweats when the postal worker comes to the door), I'd run screaming from kay's deal.

    jmp

  • Real Estate Investor · San Antonio, TX · Member since 2014 · 785 posts · 190 votes
    11y

    barbara, you have positive cash flow. Good positive cash flow :). There are potential pitfalls such as rehab costing a ton on an old asset, but you are way ahead of the game with that cash flow! :)

  • Contractor · Round Rock, TX · Member since 2013 · 767 posts · 389 votes
    11y
    Originally posted by @Account Closed:

    I use my own money or OPM at reasaonble rates. If I don't have the cash to buy the house, I don't buy it (revolutionary concept!). I then do flips and make 10k or so and save it up to buy more. 

    I'm done with mortgages on investment properties. No freaking way.

    Words like that on this site could get you banned or scolded.    No mortgages and not leveraging yourself to the max???   Oh my.    I have a good friend of mine who has around 40 paid for rentals and I'm sure has more income and net worth than 95% of the people on this site. 

  • chicago , IL · Member since 2014 · 61 posts · 3 votes
    11y
    Originally posted by @Barbara G.:

    @kay Hamilton

    I see what you are saying

    Suppose you just look at this as a flip.

    If you add up your entire rehab costs and add it to the price of the house you bought (cost + rhab)  will you come out of this with  profit?  What do the real estate comps say about your house rehabbed. What price can you selll this house for once it is rehabbed?   Does this give you a reasonable profit??

    When you occupy the apartment will you be figuring your rent at market value, after all you do have to pay rent?  Then you have to add your profit or subtract your loss to the end selling price.  If you made some cash add it, if you lost cash subtrract it.  

    I don't know if I am explaining this correctly?

    Where are you after you do this?

     Well this is in south philly, a hot spot right now. There's a comp about .5 miles away that sold for 400,000 dollars. There's a comp a bit closer that sold for 270k buts it's probably in similar condition. There's another ones also for 400k.

    I don't really have to rehab. One tenant has even living there since 2008 and she's fine. But to get cash flow I would have to either rehab and raise rent or refinance.

    I guess my exit strategy would be to sell.

    It's a little hard considering I have to live in the place. I just really like the area for living.

  • Real Estate Investor · San Antonio, TX · Member since 2014 · 785 posts · 190 votes
    11y

    Amen brother! There will be refreshments after the meeting! 

    ;)

    My partner retired at 28 with 20k in cash flow off free and clear houses. He started dirt poor. Anyone who wants to challenge me on that - call me right now. I'll educate you. (I know the criticisms - why does he still work then Joe? Why isn't he sitting on the beach? - he did that for awhile and got bored, and because he loves what he does and is dedicated to transforming the south side into a population of homeowners not renters? good enough for you, negative types? :)

    Owning real estate in cash is the way to go. It isn't easy but it's a lot safer. 

    I don't do rentals, but paid for, free and clear real estate is the way to go. 

    I've been scolded and nearly banned on here for preaching what I preach. Whatever. I do not seek or need the approval of the Bigger Pocket Fathers/Mothers. :). 

    Go with God Brian! :)

  • Joel OwensBusiness Member
    Moderator
    Real Estate Broker · Canton, GA · Member since 2010 · 15k+ posts · 11k+ votes
    11y

    To the people making the numbers work by the doing repairs yourself and doing the PM yourself just realize when you go to sell that most buyers will use retail trade averages for ongoing repairs and having a PM manage the property.

    If you look for buyers that do not include those things you will severely limit your resale value and the buyer pool to sell too.

    Also do not talk yourself into " If I can just rehab and get the rents higher THEN the property works! "

    You DO NOT  pay for potential in the buy price that the seller has yet to work for to achieve. Either the seller does it and you think of paying for it or there is a discount for the buyer doing it.

    Think about why would a homeowner buy a house that needs 15,000 worth of work for 150,000 when they can get one that has all those problems fixed for 165,000?? The buyers all things being equal will go for the finished product and avoid the unnecessary work. Now if the buyers bought for 120,000 and put in 15,000 for 135,000 and it's worth 165,000 then the 30,000 upside might make it worth going through all those repairs and updates.

    Do not buy something just to try and invest. Yes maybe you put 3.5% down BUT if that deal goes bad you have a ton of debt around your neck dragging you down. I have seen people buy the wrong property and be stuck for years and years trying to get rid of it.

    This would be a NO to me. Even if you had a really strong rental market where it might eventually get you cash flow positive those markets do not stay at that level forever. If  a market is going up by 8 or 10% a year the odds of it staying that way for 5 or 10 years is slim. More realistic is maybe a few good years and then goes to 2 or 3% a year. The rents could even deflate as the hot markets tend to go to cold.

    Some markets look like a roller coaster on a graph and other have a small incline and a small decline. I like the more average markets with good steady returns because losses are more limited in a downturn. The highly volatile markets might be good for quick re-sales but holding long term might prove risky. Every investor has to decide what they like and do not like.

  • Specialist · Honolulu, HI · Member since 2014 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    11y

    Joe,
    Remember that deals where you will be living in one of the units are analyzed differently than a strict investment rental. If one of the units is not cash-flowing (ie. because you are living there), of course cash flow will be affected. But we should all set aside funds for our personal living arrangments anyways. Can't sleep under a bridge for free.. know what I mean?

  • Austin, TX · Member since 2015 · 102 posts · 33 votes
    11y

    I don't like this deal either. negative cash flow turns me off. 

  • Joe VilleneuvePro Member
    Plymouth, MI · Member since 2013 · 13k+ posts · 19k+ votes
    11y
    Originally posted by @Andrey Y.:

    Joe,
    Remember that deals where you will be living in one of the units are analyzed differently than a strict investment rental. If one of the units is not cash-flowing (ie. because you are living there), of course cash flow will be affected. But we should all set aside funds for our personal living arrangments anyways. Can't sleep under a bridge for free.. know what I mean?

    That's just a rationalization for negative cash flow.

  • Dana WhickerPro Member
    Investor · Fernandina Beach, FL · Member since 2014 · 557 posts · 374 votes
    11y

    I currently have 1 negative cash flow property.  It's soooo painful.  It's like walking barefoot on broken glass.  Pick your own torture and imagine what that feels like.  That's what negative cash flow feels like.  

    I won't get into how I ended up with it because it's one of those woe-is-me tales that no one wants to hear.  I've learned some good lessons from that property.  The main one being that I will never own another cash pig like that again.

  • Hartsdale, NY · Member since 2015 · 874 posts · 218 votes
    11y

    @Joel Owens  (how do you high light the @?)

    You are right.  Why would you buy something for $150 and do all that work when you could buy it for $165,000 with the work done

    Well we did that.  We  bought 2 duplexes for $165.000 each where we have worked for one year rehabbing it with the cash flow.  I think we would have had to pay at least $225,000 if these duplexes were in good condition and I think we would not have done that.  So we will be putting $30,000 or $35,000 into it (plus sweat) all from the cash flow and it will take us 1 1/2 to 2 years to pay for it out of the flow.  But it has been a job.  We don't want to go down to another crawl space

    We did it because that was all we could afford or so we thought.  It was the first thing we bought as an investment property

    Now we are looking at 2 more duplexes that are very new (about 1 1/2 years old) and nothing has to be done. Its a little further away and in another town  (we don't like this town as much as the first town but its good)   We think we can get them for $190,000 each?  Thats only $35,000 more or $70,000 total but   Nothing has to be done (they are new)  and the rent roll is the same and the expenses are close?  We can use the cash flow from the first month, instead of putting it back in to rehab for almost 2 years.    So you are right but sometimes you do what you have to do.  

  • Investor · Reno, NV · Member since 2015 · 69 posts · 48 votes
    11y

    @Kay H. 

    I'm not sure this is such a bad deal. If I calculate it correctly your monthly cash flow is $2100 and your nut is $1550 (piti) That leaves $ 550 month for repairs, vacancy. You are projecting only $169 year in negative cash flow which is essentially a break even. You will probably be paying down principal year 1 of $2000 and that amount will grow yearly. While I know a lot of people think appreciation is gambling I would disagree. Those same folks probably also consider the stock market gambling but the fact is it is investing. You cannot just count on appreciation but if you know your market and economics of your area and you make a reasonable assumption eg 3% year you have a reasonable shot. That does not mean you will appreciate every year but the odds are on a long holding period you will. Next you need to factor in your own circumstance. Do you have a stable job or skill set that you no you are not at risk for job loss. Do you have an emergency fund to cover six months of living expenses and 3-6 months of PITI. If you are financially fit and stable this could make sense as a long term hold. If on the other hand you do not have reserves and stable income the risks increase.

  • Joe VilleneuvePro Member
    Plymouth, MI · Member since 2013 · 13k+ posts · 19k+ votes
    11y

    @David Jay How is $169/year negative cash flow break even?

  • Investor · Reno, NV · Member since 2015 · 69 posts · 48 votes
    11y

    @Joe Villeneuve Vacancy, maintenance,etc...are all projections not fixed costs. $169/year is well below 1% of the yearly rent. You could probably be $169 positive just as easily. If $169 a year will break you than you need to be saving and not investing at all. Rather I think you need to consider the Principal pay down which can add $2000 year 1. At a 3.5% down this is ~20% on your invested cash, not too shabby. 

  • Real Estate Broker · Naples, FL · Member since 2013 · 9k+ posts · 6k+ votes
    11y

    @Kay H. I am starting to sound like a broken record or CD that skips:) Read "The Millionaire Investor" by Gary Kellar. His rule that states "you make money when you BUY the property" should be your FIRST rule. Unless you are making money on it: DONT BUY IT! If you don't have his book go buy it. It is an excellent read. 

  • Investor · Cornwall On Hudson, NY · Member since 2014 · 77 posts · 25 votes
    11y

    Well, if you live in Philly and you buy in Florida how does that cash flow look when you have to fly down for 3 weekends in a row to straiten out a mess?  Some markets are hard to break in to and there may be reasons to stay close even though it is not looking like the best opportunity to others.  To me, trying to own a property far away for a new investor is an invitation for disaster.  I would rather help them with getting the numbers clear and let them learn locally.  I see a bit in the original post that makes me think there are a lot of issues/questions still to be answered.  Due diligence mitigates risk.  

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