It's Coming - Will It Help or Hurt Your Market? - Housing Crash

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It's Coming - Will It Help or Hurt Your Market? - Housing Crash

Account Closed
Investor · Scottsdale, AZ · Member since 2016 · 1k+ posts · 885 votes

The Bubble is Building or Has Already Built

United States S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index Notes

The S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-City Composite Home Price Index measures changes in residential house prices in 20 metropolitan regions in the United States: 

Atlanta, Boston, Charlotte, Chicago, Cleveland, Dallas, Denver, Detroit, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Miami, Minneapolis, New York, Phoenix, Portland, San Diego, San Francisco, Seattle, Tampa and Washington D.C. 

This page provides the latest reported value for - United States S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index - plus previous releases, historical high and low, short-term forecast and long-term prediction, economic calendar, survey consensus and news. United States S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index - actual data, historical chart and calendar of releases - was last updated on April of 2017.

               Current  Previous  Highest   Lowest         Dates          Unit Frequency

                193.49  192.68    206.52     100.00     2000 - 2017     Index Points Monthly

2000=100 Anything Above 100 Means Increased Price

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Dan H.Pro Member
Investor · Poway, CA · Member since 2015 · 7k+ posts · 8k+ votes
9y

Not concerned.  Markets (stock, re, etc.) go through cycles.   I have been through them before.  If prices do not drop I will continue to make smart purchases.  If prices drop I will make even more smart purchases.  Similar to dollar cost averaging.   Either way, because I am not over leveraged, I have no concerns. 

The way I look at it a RE price decline is an opportunity but if there is no RE decline imminent then I will also be fine.  

by the way I would not automatically correlate a new RE high to a market decline.  Markets set all time highs all the time.  A decline would result from a recession, bad loans, change to tax laws that would affect RE values, etc.  I do not see any of those as obvious but do admit the price declines are often not obvious until they are upon us.  

No worries.  

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  • Account Closed
    Castlewood, VA · Member since 2012 · 177 posts · 57 votes
    9y

    Negative, Ghost Rider. 

    3Reply
  • Mike ReynoldsPro Member
    construction · Nacogdoches, TX · Member since 2011 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    9y

    @Account Closed Not here it wont. Hasn't ever in my town to be exact really. The multi family bubble hit us three years ago when our state college built 2500 (@750 month) units in two years. The other multis are hurting now and on the chopping block. One particular one the owner gave 12 months due diligence period and they still walked away. She BRRR'd it to the max. Once the bank takes a loss it may be a play. There is a high powered PM company out of San Antone that is trying to make sense of the carnage next week but I doubt they will. (whoops I wasn't supposed to know about that yet) The SFH are the same as many are vacant because of the cheap rent in the new apts. Soon they will be on the chopping block too. If you buy here you buy EAST of North st. Not west. 

    I think it all is regional and everyone should know their desired markets. 

    1Reply
  • Matt Motil
    Rental Property Investor · Cleveland, OH · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 880 votes
    9y

    we are still 2-3 years away from a softening of the market. Real investors make money in any market. Wannabes will weed themselves out 

    2Reply
  • Dan H.Pro Member
    Investor · Poway, CA · Member since 2015 · 7k+ posts · 8k+ votes
    9y

    Not concerned.  Markets (stock, re, etc.) go through cycles.   I have been through them before.  If prices do not drop I will continue to make smart purchases.  If prices drop I will make even more smart purchases.  Similar to dollar cost averaging.   Either way, because I am not over leveraged, I have no concerns. 

    The way I look at it a RE price decline is an opportunity but if there is no RE decline imminent then I will also be fine.  

    by the way I would not automatically correlate a new RE high to a market decline.  Markets set all time highs all the time.  A decline would result from a recession, bad loans, change to tax laws that would affect RE values, etc.  I do not see any of those as obvious but do admit the price declines are often not obvious until they are upon us.  

    No worries.  

    3Reply
  • Account Closed
    OP
    Investor · Scottsdale, AZ · Member since 2016 · 1k+ posts · 885 votes
    9y

    I buy in several of those states (AZ CA WA TX) and I agree, if you buy properly to invest, there is nothing to worry about. I buy "Subject To", so my low cost to get in is always relative to the market anyway.

    Buying for home ownership; the ratio of income to owner occupied home purchase cost is way above normal. That is, the cost of housing as a percentage of income is far greater than it normally is. Add people's student loan debt and a lot of people will be renters for a long time.

    0Reply
  • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
    Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
    9y

    Ken I keep hearing this and wondering but then I just look at my little bubble.

    I built 27 homes in Gresham Oregon last year... 4 sold for cash... 1 VA 3 FHA and the rest conventional.. in years past it would have been NO cash NO conventional and 2 VA and the rest FHA...

    I have 3 that I built in Charleston right now... Pending .. one 1.35  All cash  One 720 all cash the other just under 600k 20% down..

    So as I see price's of course have risen and we are the recipients of this wind fall.. in many cases we are making 100k more than we thought we would make a year ago on just one single home.

    Its not funny money buying this stuff.

    I see more risk in the sub prime stuff IE owner carry contracts with bad credit ... low to no downs that type of thing I think that is where the buys will be..

    Multi in Texas from what I have seen from when I first was introduced to it from a syndicator I worked for in the early 80's has always been a rocky road.. IE they just build new units and the old one's become financially  obsolete and end up with all sorts of vacancy problems.. but any way not really any kind of expert in that..

    Then I look at the turn key stuff that we work in.. and I see the huds ( sometimes 10 a week) they are either being sold for cash or 20 to 25% down and at DCR's that are 2 to 3X this leaves a lot of room for error.. as long as folks don't go for hood rats and buy the more stable assets I think those do fine.

    those that want to toil in the very low end if they do it for a living can make it work but lots of work in that asset class from what I see.

    However if the buyers in the super inflated areas like SF  just stop buying that could cause price compression but I don't think massive bubble burst..  Major Earth quake not withstanding.

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    0Reply
  • Jim Y.
    Real Estate Investor · Tacoma, WA · Member since 2013 · 87 posts · 55 votes
    9y
    Real estate price correction and real estate market crash are not the same thing. It is easy to walk away from a house you put nothing down on, then cash-out refinanced to buy a Hummer. It is entirely different to walk away from a house you put down 20% or more, and no one will walk away from a house they bought cash. There are no janitors and school bus drivers buying 700k houses with no doc loans today.
    2Reply
  • Andrew Johnson
    Real Estate Investor · Encinitas, CA · Member since 2016 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    9y
    Jim Y. Income verification just takes all of the fun out of life. I am curious to see the impact of foreign capital (ebbing and flowing) for markets like NYC and SF. Last thing I read was a softening of the $5M+ apartments in NYC but the $1M-$3M market was still cruising along well. But that was months ago...
    0Reply
  • Anthony GaydenPro Member
    Rental Property Investor · Omaha, NE · Member since 2014 · 2k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    9y
    Ken Min I don't see it here. Prices have increased but real estate is still quite affordable in Omaha metro.
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    1Reply
  • Yanis P.
    Steger, IL · Member since 2016 · 57 posts · 13 votes
    9y

    @ "

    There are no janitors and school bus drivers buying 700k houses with no doc loans today.

    "

    It happening, most of my mechanics buying houses with 2500$ monthly payment, and I am (the business owner)  still renting

    They found the ways to buy a house with 1% down in Illinois

    0Reply
  • Account Closed
    OP
    Investor · Scottsdale, AZ · Member since 2016 · 1k+ posts · 885 votes
    9y

    @Jay Hinrichs I used to play in the Sandy river and pick raspberries for the summer at Mershon's Farms up in Corbett. Sometimes we'd make the "long" drive into Gresham. (Sounds like we traveled by horse.) I love Gresham or at least I did 40 years ago before all of the building. ;-) Summer vacations, visiting relatives, long ago. I'm glad it has been profitable for you doing those projects in Gresham, tho'.

    0Reply
  • Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
    Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
    9y

    @Account Closed  I can't tell you how many folks I bought timber and timber land from that said they used to pick berries.. LOL... YUP Portlandia grew up

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    0Reply
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