Which cash flow markets lost little equity during last downturn?
Most Popular Reply
Rental Property Investor · Durham, NC · Member since 2016 · 7k+ posts · 7k+ votes
8yI’d check Little Rock AR. It’s a diversified economy with industries that tend to be better in recessions. I plan to buy there down the road myself
24 Replies
- Rental Property Investor · Durham, NC · Member since 2016 · 7k+ posts · 7k+ votes8yI’d check Little Rock AR. It’s a diversified economy with industries that tend to be better in recessions. I plan to buy there down the road myself
Originally posted by @Caleb Heimsoth:
I’d check Little Rock AR. It’s a diversified economy with industries that tend to be better in recessions. I plan to buy there down the road myself
Isn't that gang territory?
- 8yJay HinrichsBusiness MemberReal Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
this was in my mind a hot debate... when I first found that I could talk about real estate on a website .. it was the Property investors forum in Australia.. did not know BP existed .. and actually it was an Aussie who turned me on to this site..
Anyway the raging debate was do you buy in ATL were prices were crushed.. or Texas were prices did not go down.
Well right now that's an easy answer ATL the prices came back up.. FLA they came back up Vegas they came back up.. and Texas has had some appreciation but I think prop tax's keep it mellow on that end.. although Austin is an outlier.
with mid west its not values that are the risk its buying in the right asset class.. and most of the cities are interchangeable. Vis a vi tenant base and so on an so forth..
So then I think it comes down to prop tax's and weather.. and quality of construction going in.. and buying in the right class of property to mitigate tenant risk..
But if you buy a small multi in say Washington.. you have to pay excise tax to sell why not buy in state.. no income tax.
look at Wenatchee ... Walla Walla Spokane etc.. Even Longview is having a resurgence with the over flow from PDX super high prices.. just some thoughts..
- Investor · Greenville, SC · Member since 2016 · 5k+ posts · 13k+ votes8y
I am re-allocating out of some value plays into cash flow plays as well. I am not targeting the Midwest...I'm looking for medium term population growth and assets classes that are recession resistant (and always value add). I held rentals in upstate SC through the last recession and my rents actually went up. My recent investments have been in Bradenton FL and Arlington TX (and self-storage and MHP throughout the country).
- 8yJay HinrichsBusiness MemberReal Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
@Mike Dymski are you targeting anything in the Charleston North Charleston Summerville area.. with Volvo now opening up and Mercedes behind it and the 787 becoming the new 747. Along with the cruise lines coming in and the mothballed Navel base now starting to redevelop.. . seems like this area is prime for long term holding.. Although from what I heard tax's on non owner occ are something to consider in SC.. I had a 8 plex I built in Charleston and sold in April.. did not own it long enough to really look at the tax bill. But its high demand real estate no doubt. And one that I think is pretty solid given market corrections..
Originally posted by @Jay Hinrichs:
this was in my mind a hot debate... when I first found that I could talk about real estate on a website .. it was the Property investors forum in Australia.. did not know BP existed .. and actually it was an Aussie who turned me on to this site..
Anyway the raging debate was do you buy in ATL were prices were crushed.. or Texas were prices did not go down.
Well right now that's an easy answer ATL the prices came back up.. FLA they came back up Vegas they came back up.. and Texas has had some appreciation but I think prop tax's keep it mellow on that end.. although Austin is an outlier.
with mid west its not values that are the risk its buying in the right asset class.. and most of the cities are interchangeable. Vis a vi tenant base and so on an so forth..
So then I think it comes down to prop tax's and weather.. and quality of construction going in.. and buying in the right class of property to mitigate tenant risk..
But if you buy a small multi in say Washington.. you have to pay excise tax to sell why not buy in state.. no income tax.
look at Wenatchee ... Walla Walla Spokane etc.. Even Longview is having a resurgence with the over flow from PDX super high prices.. just some thoughts..
Jay, I know you aren't a fan of Texas, And I get why, high property taxes, and foundation issues. but there has been serious price appreciation in Dallas. ITs actually smoked Atlanta for price appreciation both since 2000 and 2008 according to Case-Shiller.
- Investor · Greenville, SC · Member since 2016 · 5k+ posts · 13k+ votes8y
Originally posted by @Jay Hinrichs:
@Mike Dymski are you targeting anything in the Charleston North Charleston Summerville area.. with Volvo now opening up and Mercedes behind it and the 787 becoming the new 747. Along with the cruise lines coming in and the mothballed Navel base now starting to redevelop.. . seems like this area is prime for long term holding.. Although from what I heard tax's on non owner occ are something to consider in SC.. I had a 8 plex I built in Charleston and sold in April.. did not own it long enough to really look at the tax bill. But its high demand real estate no doubt. And one that I think is pretty solid given market corrections..
Charleston and Myrtle will definitely be the high growth markets in SC for the near future. I am getting better opportunities through my passive investing network (i.e. they have very mature deal flow pipelines) than through my active investing network; so, my investing in 2018 has all been out of state.
- 8yJay HinrichsBusiness MemberReal Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
Originally posted by @Bart H.:
Originally posted by @Jay Hinrichs:
this was in my mind a hot debate... when I first found that I could talk about real estate on a website .. it was the Property investors forum in Australia.. did not know BP existed .. and actually it was an Aussie who turned me on to this site..
Anyway the raging debate was do you buy in ATL were prices were crushed.. or Texas were prices did not go down.
Well right now that's an easy answer ATL the prices came back up.. FLA they came back up Vegas they came back up.. and Texas has had some appreciation but I think prop tax's keep it mellow on that end.. although Austin is an outlier.
with mid west its not values that are the risk its buying in the right asset class.. and most of the cities are interchangeable. Vis a vi tenant base and so on an so forth..
So then I think it comes down to prop tax's and weather.. and quality of construction going in.. and buying in the right class of property to mitigate tenant risk..
But if you buy a small multi in say Washington.. you have to pay excise tax to sell why not buy in state.. no income tax.
look at Wenatchee ... Walla Walla Spokane etc.. Even Longview is having a resurgence with the over flow from PDX super high prices.. just some thoughts..
Jay, I know you aren't a fan of Texas, And I get why, high property taxes, and foundation issues. but there has been serious price appreciation in Dallas. ITs actually smoked Atlanta for price appreciation both since 2000 and 2008 according to Case-Shiller.
I don't think so frankly.. I was buying foreclosures in ATL brand new construction homes for 50k 1800 sq ft rent 1000 .. I bought 54 of them.. in 2013.. they are now all pushing 125 to 150k.. did properties literally triple in dallas ??? I like Texas for Texans just like I like any other state for the locals.. but Texas to me has inherent risk factors I just don't want to deal with.. but that's me and I am just one guy..
- 8yJay HinrichsBusiness MemberReal Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
Originally posted by @Bart H.:
Originally posted by @Jay Hinrichs:
this was in my mind a hot debate... when I first found that I could talk about real estate on a website .. it was the Property investors forum in Australia.. did not know BP existed .. and actually it was an Aussie who turned me on to this site..
Anyway the raging debate was do you buy in ATL were prices were crushed.. or Texas were prices did not go down.
Well right now that's an easy answer ATL the prices came back up.. FLA they came back up Vegas they came back up.. and Texas has had some appreciation but I think prop tax's keep it mellow on that end.. although Austin is an outlier.
with mid west its not values that are the risk its buying in the right asset class.. and most of the cities are interchangeable. Vis a vi tenant base and so on an so forth..
So then I think it comes down to prop tax's and weather.. and quality of construction going in.. and buying in the right class of property to mitigate tenant risk..
But if you buy a small multi in say Washington.. you have to pay excise tax to sell why not buy in state.. no income tax.
look at Wenatchee ... Walla Walla Spokane etc.. Even Longview is having a resurgence with the over flow from PDX super high prices.. just some thoughts..
Jay, I know you aren't a fan of Texas, And I get why, high property taxes, and foundation issues. but there has been serious price appreciation in Dallas. ITs actually smoked Atlanta for price appreciation both since 2000 and 2008 according to Case-Shiller.
In addition I was buying brand new homes and duplex's In Fort Myers at court house steps for 20 to 30k and maxx 40k that are all now well over 100k... there are many areas that had greater appreciation than most of Texas.. my point was TExas did not melt down like other markets did.. so the rebound was not as pronounced and that was good for anyone who needed to exit their Texas properties in the rough times.. And I funded a turn key company in Orlando to the tune of several hundred homes that were all bought for 30 to 50k and are now all selling at 125k and above and turnkey is no longer viable there and wholesalers at least the big ones all closed shop..
Originally posted by @Jay Hinrichs:
Originally posted by @Bart H.:
Originally posted by @Jay Hinrichs:
this was in my mind a hot debate... when I first found that I could talk about real estate on a website .. it was the Property investors forum in Australia.. did not know BP existed .. and actually it was an Aussie who turned me on to this site..
Anyway the raging debate was do you buy in ATL were prices were crushed.. or Texas were prices did not go down.
Well right now that's an easy answer ATL the prices came back up.. FLA they came back up Vegas they came back up.. and Texas has had some appreciation but I think prop tax's keep it mellow on that end.. although Austin is an outlier.
with mid west its not values that are the risk its buying in the right asset class.. and most of the cities are interchangeable. Vis a vi tenant base and so on an so forth..
So then I think it comes down to prop tax's and weather.. and quality of construction going in.. and buying in the right class of property to mitigate tenant risk..
But if you buy a small multi in say Washington.. you have to pay excise tax to sell why not buy in state.. no income tax.
look at Wenatchee ... Walla Walla Spokane etc.. Even Longview is having a resurgence with the over flow from PDX super high prices.. just some thoughts..
Jay, I know you aren't a fan of Texas, And I get why, high property taxes, and foundation issues. but there has been serious price appreciation in Dallas. ITs actually smoked Atlanta for price appreciation both since 2000 and 2008 according to Case-Shiller.
I don't think so frankly.. I was buying foreclosures in ATL brand new construction homes for 50k 1800 sq ft rent 1000 .. I bought 54 of them.. in 2013.. they are now all pushing 125 to 150k.. did properties literally triple in dallas ??? I like Texas for Texans just like I like any other state for the locals.. but Texas to me has inherent risk factors I just don't want to deal with.. but that's me and I am just one guy..
We own a property in Dallas right near downtown, 2012 it sold for 69,900. We bought it in 2015 for 180K, it appraised when we refinanced it in the fall it appraised at $350K. I think it right now might be worth as much as $450 or 500K today. Granted we caught some good fortune with a developer picking up a huge area, maybe a 40 square block area for redevelopment.
Properties right on the South side of the Trinity could be bought just a couple of years ago for 50-60K and the land is in the 180-200K range now.
Case View, Elmwood, Bishop arts, Medical Districts and other neighborhoods have had similar increases.
All I can point to is the Case-Shiller report that I linked to.
- 8yJay HinrichsBusiness MemberReal Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
Originally posted by @Bart H.:
Originally posted by @Jay Hinrichs:
Originally posted by @Bart H.:
Originally posted by @Jay Hinrichs:
this was in my mind a hot debate... when I first found that I could talk about real estate on a website .. it was the Property investors forum in Australia.. did not know BP existed .. and actually it was an Aussie who turned me on to this site..
Anyway the raging debate was do you buy in ATL were prices were crushed.. or Texas were prices did not go down.
Well right now that's an easy answer ATL the prices came back up.. FLA they came back up Vegas they came back up.. and Texas has had some appreciation but I think prop tax's keep it mellow on that end.. although Austin is an outlier.
with mid west its not values that are the risk its buying in the right asset class.. and most of the cities are interchangeable. Vis a vi tenant base and so on an so forth..
So then I think it comes down to prop tax's and weather.. and quality of construction going in.. and buying in the right class of property to mitigate tenant risk..
But if you buy a small multi in say Washington.. you have to pay excise tax to sell why not buy in state.. no income tax.
look at Wenatchee ... Walla Walla Spokane etc.. Even Longview is having a resurgence with the over flow from PDX super high prices.. just some thoughts..
Jay, I know you aren't a fan of Texas, And I get why, high property taxes, and foundation issues. but there has been serious price appreciation in Dallas. ITs actually smoked Atlanta for price appreciation both since 2000 and 2008 according to Case-Shiller.
I don't think so frankly.. I was buying foreclosures in ATL brand new construction homes for 50k 1800 sq ft rent 1000 .. I bought 54 of them.. in 2013.. they are now all pushing 125 to 150k.. did properties literally triple in dallas ??? I like Texas for Texans just like I like any other state for the locals.. but Texas to me has inherent risk factors I just don't want to deal with.. but that's me and I am just one guy..
We own a property in Dallas right near downtown, 2012 it sold for 69,900. We bought it in 2015 for 180K, it appraised when we refinanced it in the fall it appraised at $350K. I think it right now might be worth as much as $450 or 500K today. Granted we caught some good fortune with a developer picking up a huge area, maybe a 40 square block area for redevelopment.
Properties right on the South side of the Trinity could be bought just a couple of years ago for 50-60K and the land is in the 180-200K range now.
Case View, Elmwood, Bishop arts, Medical Districts and other neighborhoods have had similar increases.
All I can point to is the Case-Shiller report that I linked to.
got it but those are not really vanilla rentals that most of BP chases.. I love regentrifying areas.. good job.. keep It up. !!! Remember the BP mantra appreciation like your talking about is gambling and its all about cash flow :) you speculator you !!! LOL
Originally posted by @Will G.:
@Bart H. I hear Dallas is the new hotspot for california migration and hence the appreciation, true?
I have heard that as well, but I haven't personally come across it directly.
There had been an influx into the metro area from Toyota moving from California. And I think there are some investors who are just buying into this area because others say its a great place to me.
Personally I think the run here has happened. I don't know that it is likely to continue, at least not in the dramatic pace we have seen over the last few years.
I see a lot of people posting on BP talking about Dallas like it is an easy place to buy real estate. All I know is its getting very tough to find decent deals right now. I see a lot of wholesalers trying to flip the same garbage around multiple times.
But we would see a big gap up in price if Amazon came to Dallas
- Flipper · Fort Myers, FL · Member since 2017 · 182 posts · 98 votes8y
@Jay Hinrichs just curious though, you bought stuff in Fort Myers as well? are u still holding them now ?
- 8yJay HinrichsBusiness MemberReal Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
Originally posted by @Kevin Dong:
@Jay Hinrichs just curious though, you bought stuff in Fort Myers as well? are u still holding them now ?
Nope doubled my money and cashed out.. which is what I do.. I don't hold anything for more than a year if I can help it.. value add sell take profit and take no market risk of long term hold. one 07 to 2011 is enough for me in my lifetime.. I had about 30 million in real estate and loans out.. and it was not pretty.. never again.. I will leave it to you all to be landlords plus I am too old and don't like it particularly.. too dull and money with leverage is too small.
- Flipper · Fort Myers, FL · Member since 2017 · 182 posts · 98 votes8y
@Jay Hinrichs haha, I got u. My main job is a property manager. So being an landlord is not so much an headache to me. I am loving the rental checks coming in every month. which basically fund most of my rehabs on the flips. Should I cash out for instant profits or should I hold it for the cash flow? That is the problem I have. but I do notices that if I don't sell at all I wont grow as fast as I would like. Started with 200k last year. I M triple my money in a year. Cant complaint at all. trying to see if I can double my current networth by the end of 2018 !
@Jay Hinrichsundefined - 8yJay HinrichsBusiness MemberReal Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
Originally posted by @Kevin Dong:
@Jay Hinrichs haha, I got u. My main job is a property manager. So being an landlord is not so much an headache to me. I am loving the rental checks coming in every month. which basically fund most of my rehabs on the flips. Should I cash out for instant profits or should I hold it for the cash flow? That is the problem I have. but I do notices that if I don't sell at all I wont grow as fast as I would like. Started with 200k last year. I M triple my money in a year. Cant complaint at all. trying to see if I can double my current networth by the end of 2018 !
Keep in mind net worth is numbers on paper it does not become real until you exit.. exit at the right time its real.. hold and net worth can evaporate just like what happened to all of us who were fully engaged in real estate in 07 to 2011.. did not matter who you were with exceptions of very small areas of the country and niches.. I looked at a package of 100 homes there in your market in 06 all new construction they were not moving they were selling for 200 to 250k.. I was in contract at 125k per and did not close I was just nervous.
and next thing I know in 09 I am buying same assets at 25 to 40k per home and a few duplexs.. will it drop like that again I am not seeing it.. but I just want to build a few more communities keep my teams running in the cash flow markets and keep a low profile..
I do not want to take on ANY debt other than debt that can be retired quickly. when I sell.. but that's me.. I lived through 4 downturns now and to me its all about no debt on property and cash.. and then value add make your 30 to 200k per sale and do a bunch of them .. pay your tax's and try to stay healthy.. but I get it landlording is the number one investment for most and that is what they should do.. its the easiest to get into and has the most available financing.. very few could get the type of loans I get unless your in the business.
- Investor · Chicago, IL · Member since 2009 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes8y
I have a contrarian opinion here. Seattle, today, is high quality real estate. It is where people want to be. The difficulty in producing new housing, protects the value of well located properties.
My second contrarian opinion. The real estate market is not going to crash to the degree it did in 2010. That may have been the deepest correction in our lifetime.
I'd keep the Seattle properties long term. There are big advantages because you live there and know the market. Midwest properties might end up being a headache, plus you don't have the experience of being a local.
- Flipper · Fort Myers, FL · Member since 2017 · 182 posts · 98 votes8y
@Jay Hinrichs. I am Chinese. I am still hesitate about debt as well due to my background. Chinese people buy with cash. but this mind set holding me back quit a bit. I realized if I could use the healthy leverage on my currently profile. I could easily double my money in couple months which is kind of hard to resist in my age. I totally agreed with u about the net worth evaporate in the downturn. but you don't really lose money if you can hold it tight and not sell in the downturn.
Originally posted by @Jay Hinrichs:
Originally posted by @Bart H.:
Originally posted by @Jay Hinrichs:
Originally posted by @Bart H.:
Originally posted by @Jay Hinrichs:
this was in my mind a hot debate... when I first found that I could talk about real estate on a website .. it was the Property investors forum in Australia.. did not know BP existed .. and actually it was an Aussie who turned me on to this site..
Anyway the raging debate was do you buy in ATL were prices were crushed.. or Texas were prices did not go down.
Well right now that's an easy answer ATL the prices came back up.. FLA they came back up Vegas they came back up.. and Texas has had some appreciation but I think prop tax's keep it mellow on that end.. although Austin is an outlier.
with mid west its not values that are the risk its buying in the right asset class.. and most of the cities are interchangeable. Vis a vi tenant base and so on an so forth..
So then I think it comes down to prop tax's and weather.. and quality of construction going in.. and buying in the right class of property to mitigate tenant risk..
But if you buy a small multi in say Washington.. you have to pay excise tax to sell why not buy in state.. no income tax.
look at Wenatchee ... Walla Walla Spokane etc.. Even Longview is having a resurgence with the over flow from PDX super high prices.. just some thoughts..
Jay, I know you aren't a fan of Texas, And I get why, high property taxes, and foundation issues. but there has been serious price appreciation in Dallas. ITs actually smoked Atlanta for price appreciation both since 2000 and 2008 according to Case-Shiller.
I don't think so frankly.. I was buying foreclosures in ATL brand new construction homes for 50k 1800 sq ft rent 1000 .. I bought 54 of them.. in 2013.. they are now all pushing 125 to 150k.. did properties literally triple in dallas ??? I like Texas for Texans just like I like any other state for the locals.. but Texas to me has inherent risk factors I just don't want to deal with.. but that's me and I am just one guy..
We own a property in Dallas right near downtown, 2012 it sold for 69,900. We bought it in 2015 for 180K, it appraised when we refinanced it in the fall it appraised at $350K. I think it right now might be worth as much as $450 or 500K today. Granted we caught some good fortune with a developer picking up a huge area, maybe a 40 square block area for redevelopment.
Properties right on the South side of the Trinity could be bought just a couple of years ago for 50-60K and the land is in the 180-200K range now.
Case View, Elmwood, Bishop arts, Medical Districts and other neighborhoods have had similar increases.
All I can point to is the Case-Shiller report that I linked to.
got it but those are not really vanilla rentals that most of BP chases.. I love regentrifying areas.. good job.. keep It up. !!! Remember the BP mantra appreciation like your talking about is gambling and its all about cash flow :) you speculator you !!! LOL
LOl….agreed, I always learn a lot listening to you.
Our bread and butter are neighborhoods that are just beginning to turn in the path to progress (usually near downtown, or a major highway) where we can do a little value add, maybe reconfigure it a little, paint, new flooring etc, to get the rent to a place it breaks even/has a little return.
We don't have your deep pockets, so we have to have our properties make a little on the cash flow side, or at least break even when factoring in capex, repairs, vacancy, management etc.
But I agree with you , when you hit a gentrifying neighborhood, you will make multiples of what someone trying to play a pure class /D neighborhood for 2% will make.
- Investor · Malakoff, TX · Member since 2017 · 2k+ posts · 2k+ votes8y
Originally posted by @Jay Hinrichs:
Originally posted by @Kevin Dong:
@Jay Hinrichs haha, I got u. My main job is a property manager. So being an landlord is not so much an headache to me. I am loving the rental checks coming in every month. which basically fund most of my rehabs on the flips. Should I cash out for instant profits or should I hold it for the cash flow? That is the problem I have. but I do notices that if I don't sell at all I wont grow as fast as I would like. Started with 200k last year. I M triple my money in a year. Cant complaint at all. trying to see if I can double my current networth by the end of 2018 !
Keep in mind net worth is numbers on paper it does not become real until you exit.. exit at the right time its real.. hold and net worth can evaporate just like what happened to all of us who were fully engaged in real estate in 07 to 2011.. did not matter who you were with exceptions of very small areas of the country and niches.. I looked at a package of 100 homes there in your market in 06 all new construction they were not moving they were selling for 200 to 250k.. I was in contract at 125k per and did not close I was just nervous.
and next thing I know in 09 I am buying same assets at 25 to 40k per home and a few duplexs.. will it drop like that again I am not seeing it.. but I just want to build a few more communities keep my teams running in the cash flow markets and keep a low profile..
I do not want to take on ANY debt other than debt that can be retired quickly. when I sell.. but that's me.. I lived through 4 downturns now and to me its all about no debt on property and cash.. and then value add make your 30 to 200k per sale and do a bunch of them .. pay your tax's and try to stay healthy.. but I get it landlording is the number one investment for most and that is what they should do.. its the easiest to get into and has the most available financing.. very few could get the type of loans I get unless your in the business.
Is an exception to this vacant lots that you hold long term?
- 8yJay HinrichsBusiness MemberReal Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
Originally posted by @Eric James:
Originally posted by @Jay Hinrichs:
Originally posted by @Kevin Dong:
@Jay Hinrichs haha, I got u. My main job is a property manager. So being an landlord is not so much an headache to me. I am loving the rental checks coming in every month. which basically fund most of my rehabs on the flips. Should I cash out for instant profits or should I hold it for the cash flow? That is the problem I have. but I do notices that if I don't sell at all I wont grow as fast as I would like. Started with 200k last year. I M triple my money in a year. Cant complaint at all. trying to see if I can double my current networth by the end of 2018 !
Keep in mind net worth is numbers on paper it does not become real until you exit.. exit at the right time its real.. hold and net worth can evaporate just like what happened to all of us who were fully engaged in real estate in 07 to 2011.. did not matter who you were with exceptions of very small areas of the country and niches.. I looked at a package of 100 homes there in your market in 06 all new construction they were not moving they were selling for 200 to 250k.. I was in contract at 125k per and did not close I was just nervous.
and next thing I know in 09 I am buying same assets at 25 to 40k per home and a few duplexs.. will it drop like that again I am not seeing it.. but I just want to build a few more communities keep my teams running in the cash flow markets and keep a low profile..
I do not want to take on ANY debt other than debt that can be retired quickly. when I sell.. but that's me.. I lived through 4 downturns now and to me its all about no debt on property and cash.. and then value add make your 30 to 200k per sale and do a bunch of them .. pay your tax's and try to stay healthy.. but I get it landlording is the number one investment for most and that is what they should do.. its the easiest to get into and has the most available financing.. very few could get the type of loans I get unless your in the business.
Is an exception to this vacant lots that you hold long term?
yes I only have a few of those and those are set it and forget it.. LOOOONG term.. with huge upsides.. but I grew up in the land business so its what I know.
Originally posted by @Brian Ploszay:
I have a contrarian opinion here. Seattle, today, is high quality real estate. It is where people want to be. The difficulty in producing new housing, protects the value of well located properties.
My second contrarian opinion. The real estate market is not going to crash to the degree it did in 2010. That may have been the deepest correction in our lifetime.
I'd keep the Seattle properties long term. There are big advantages because you live there and know the market. Midwest properties might end up being a headache, plus you don't have the experience of being a local.
I think we will see a downturn in Seattle, its a pretty hot market. Similar to the downturns in property we saw in California back in the day. 2000 being one example.
Nationally, I do agree that I don't see a significant downturn in property values or rental rates, at least not a sustained one. What I do think might happen is we might get a return to significantly higher inflation.
And it might be a good time to own hard assets. 10 years from now, I am fairly confident that we will be glad to have long term fixed rate amortizing debt on our buy and hold properties.
I do think there is risk to those syndications that HAVE to either sell or refinance in the next 3-5 years.. If interest rates spike up, I have to think the returns on those projects could have some refinance risk.
Join the conversationCreate a free account to reply, vote on answers and follow this thread.