South coast real estate market ranked among worst?
Rental Property Investor · Manchester, NH · Member since 2017 · 59 posts · 23 votes
South coast real estate market ranked among worst?
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Investor · Fall River, MA · Member since 2014 · 399 posts · 300 votes
8yHi @Erik Pfundstein I saw that report last night as well and after review I believe that it is important that people keep in perspective that Fall River was included in the list of only 300 cities that have a population over 90,000 in the entire country.
Of the 19,354 "incorporated places" in the United States only 300 of those towns/cities have a population over 90,000.
The city of Fall River's average sales price was $227,900 in 2017 and in 2018 we are seeing it increase in the last 6 months:
Avg. Sale$: $260,238 for the Multi-families (which many of us on BP invest in) with an average days on market of 61
Avg. Sale$: $241,355 for the Single Families with an average days on market of 62
New Bedfords numbers are similarly improved:
The city of New Bedford average sales price was $204,100 in 2017 and in 2018 we are seeing it increase in the last 6 months:
Avg. Sale$: $228,209 for the Multi-families (which again many of us on BP invest in) with an average days on market of 83
Avg. Sale$: $227,072 for the Single Families with an average days on market of 59
To keep things in Perspective let's compare our south coast cities to the biggest in our state, which is our capitol city of Boston. The below chart is how the cities matched up according to the article:
| Overall rank (1=Best) | City | Total Score | 'Real-Estate Market' Rank | 'Affordability & Economic Environment' Rank |
| 154 | Boston, MA | 58.32 | 92 | 270 |
| 287 | Fall River, MA | 42.63 | 289 | 275 |
| 288 | New Bedford, MA | 42.62 | 290 | 266 |
As you can see all 3 cities ranked among the bottom of the list as far as Affordability and Economy is concerned. This is common in Massachusetts because as a whole we are certainly one of the less affordable states to live in.
The Important piece to look at is that this article was written based on “Home Appreciation”. Which most true investors agree is nothing more than speculative investing.
If you look at the lowest ranking cities on this chart you will find that just like Fall River and New Bedford, these cities are providing the highest and most stable “Return on Investment” in regards to monthly cashflow.
In Real Estate Cashflow is king and as an investor, Fall River and New Bedford currently have the most stable Cash on Cash potential. in the situation of another market crash, these properties are less likely to be as effected as the more appreciation focused markets like Boston.
I hope this helps and if you are serious about investing here on the southcoast feel free to reach out and we can discuss your goals and the strategies that are working in this current market.
Cheers to our success! #FallRiver #MakeItHere
11 Replies
- Investor · Fall River, MA · Member since 2014 · 399 posts · 300 votes8y
Hi @Erik Pfundstein I saw that report last night as well and after review I believe that it is important that people keep in perspective that Fall River was included in the list of only 300 cities that have a population over 90,000 in the entire country.
Of the 19,354 "incorporated places" in the United States only 300 of those towns/cities have a population over 90,000.
The city of Fall River's average sales price was $227,900 in 2017 and in 2018 we are seeing it increase in the last 6 months:
Avg. Sale$: $260,238 for the Multi-families (which many of us on BP invest in) with an average days on market of 61
Avg. Sale$: $241,355 for the Single Families with an average days on market of 62
New Bedfords numbers are similarly improved:
The city of New Bedford average sales price was $204,100 in 2017 and in 2018 we are seeing it increase in the last 6 months:
Avg. Sale$: $228,209 for the Multi-families (which again many of us on BP invest in) with an average days on market of 83
Avg. Sale$: $227,072 for the Single Families with an average days on market of 59
To keep things in Perspective let's compare our south coast cities to the biggest in our state, which is our capitol city of Boston. The below chart is how the cities matched up according to the article:
Overall rank (1=Best) City Total Score 'Real-Estate Market' Rank 'Affordability & Economic Environment' Rank 154 Boston, MA 58.32 92 270 287 Fall River, MA 42.63 289 275 288 New Bedford, MA 42.62 290 266 As you can see all 3 cities ranked among the bottom of the list as far as Affordability and Economy is concerned. This is common in Massachusetts because as a whole we are certainly one of the less affordable states to live in.
The Important piece to look at is that this article was written based on “Home Appreciation”. Which most true investors agree is nothing more than speculative investing.
If you look at the lowest ranking cities on this chart you will find that just like Fall River and New Bedford, these cities are providing the highest and most stable “Return on Investment” in regards to monthly cashflow.
In Real Estate Cashflow is king and as an investor, Fall River and New Bedford currently have the most stable Cash on Cash potential. in the situation of another market crash, these properties are less likely to be as effected as the more appreciation focused markets like Boston.
I hope this helps and if you are serious about investing here on the southcoast feel free to reach out and we can discuss your goals and the strategies that are working in this current market.
Cheers to our success! #FallRiver #MakeItHere
- Investor · Fall River, MA · Member since 2014 · 399 posts · 300 votes8y
I didn't want to put this all in one response, but below is the method which was used to build the original article:
Methodology
In order to determine the best real-estate markets, WalletHub compared 300 cities across two key dimensions, “Real-Estate Market” and “Affordability & Economic Environment.”
We evaluated those dimensions using 22 relevant metrics, which are listed below with their corresponding weights. Each metric was graded on a 100-point scale, with a score of 100 representing the healthiest housing market.
Finally, we determined each city’s weighted average across all metrics to calculate its overall score and used the resulting scores to rank-order our sample.
Each city in our sample was categorized according to the following population-size guidelines:
Large cities: More than 300,000 people
Midsize cities: 150,000 to 300,000 people
Small cities: Fewer than 150,000 people
Real-Estate Market – Total Points: 80
Home Value Forecast: Full Weight (~5.33 Points)Note: This metric is based on Zillow’s Home Value Forecast, which predicts the Zillow Home Value Index one year from June 2018.
Median Home-Price Appreciation: Full Weight (~5.33 Points)
Average Number of Days Until a House Is Sold: Full Weight (~5.33 Points)
Share of Homes Selling for a Gain: Full Weight (~5.33 Points)
Share of Listings with Price Cuts: Full Weight (~5.33 Points)
Share of ‘Underwater’ Homes: Full Weight (~5.33 Points)Note: This metric measures the percentage of homes with negative equity.
Home Sales Turnover Rate: Full Weight (~5.33 Points)
Ratio of Rent Price to Sale Price: Full Weight (~5.33 Points)
Foreclosure Rate: Full Weight (~5.33 Points)
Share of Delinquent Mortgage Holders: Full Weight (~5.33 Points)
Number of Bank-Held Homes: Full Weight (~5.33 Points)Note: This metric refers to unsold Real Estate Owned, or REO, housing units.
Vacancy Rate: Full Weight (~5.33 Points)Note: This metric was calculated as follows: Vacant Housing Units / Total Housing Units.
Buy vs. Rent Breakeven Horizon: Full Weight (~5.33 Points)Note: The “breakeven horizon” is defined by Zillow as the point, in years, at which buying a home becomes less expensive than renting the same home.
Share of Young Homes: Full Weight (~5.33 Points)Note: “Young Homes” refer to housing units built between 2010 and 2016.
Building-Permit Activity: Full Weight (~5.33 Points)Note: This metric measures the number of unit permits pulled per 1,000 residents.
Affordability & Economic Environment – Total Points: 20
Housing Affordability: Double Weight (~5.00 Points)Note: This metric measures home price as a percentage of income.
Maintenance Affordability: Full Weight (~2.50 Points)Note: This metric measures maintenance costs as a percentage of income.
Population Growth Rate: Full Weight (~2.50 Points)
Job Growth Rate: Full Weight (~2.50 Points)
Unemployment Rate: Full Weight (~2.50 Points)
Underemployment Rate: Full Weight (~2.50 Points)
Median Credit Score: Full Weight (~2.50 Points)
- Investor · Fall River, MA · Member since 2014 · 399 posts · 300 votes8y
Here are the websites I cited the above information from:
https://wallethub.com/edu/best-real-estate-markets/14889/
https://h3s.mlspin.com/search/results.asp
https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/newbedfordcitymassachusetts/PST045217
https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/fallrivercitymassachusetts/PST045217
- Rental Property Investor · Manchester, NH · Member since 2017 · 59 posts · 23 votes8y
@Gualter Amarelo Awesome perspective and analysis! I thought you might weigh in on this and thank you for doing so!
- New Bedford, MA · Member since 2015 · 71 posts · 48 votes8y
@Gualter Amarelo Great insight Gualter! I’ve never heard you speak so highly of New Bedford lol
- Investor · Fall River, MA · Member since 2014 · 399 posts · 300 votes8y
@Aaron Araujo don't get used to it brother, but you and @Matt Andrew have me seeing the brighter side of the city, lol.
It also helps that the numbers speak for themselves!
- Rental Property Investor · New Bedford, MA · Member since 2016 · 14 posts · 11 votes8y
It’s all about the cash flow and we both still got it strong. And yes @Gualter Amarillo thank you for all of your positivey about New Bedford! Lol.
- Investor · Andover, MA · Member since 2015 · 269 posts · 67 votes8y@Matt Andrew @gualter I agree it’s all about the cash flow but a simple question I have - and I am sure others here have as well - how is the rental market and how practical it is to find a reputable property management company locally? I have a friend who has over 60 doors in between Fitchburg-Orange area and he prefers there over FR/NB a million times given the likelihood to find good blue collar tenants. I am unfamiliar with both markets - only invest in and around Boston - but er definitely need to start adventuring outside the city as numbers are not making sense anymore here....
- Investor · Fall River, MA · Member since 2014 · 399 posts · 300 votes8y
You got it @Matt Andrew I might be starting to get a soft spot for New Bedford the more I see you, lol.
@Flavio Zanetti The market for tenants is very strong and we usually have more applicants than we know what to do with. The quality of the tenant will always be dictated by the landlord, so you will want a great property manager.
@Jimmy Murray owns Lyon Property Management. They are by far one of the best on BP and they manage a whole bunch of property for my investors and I am in the process of moving my personal portfolio over. Here is their website: https://www.lyonpropertygroup.com/
If you are looking to find out more about the local real estate market please feel free to send me a private message and we can connect. I am always happy to discuss my market and portfolio.
Cheers to our success!
- 8yJimmy MurrayBusiness MemberInvestor · Warwick, RI · Member since 2013 · 220 posts · 119 votes
@Gualter Amarelo appreciate the endorsement!
Really excited for the opportunity that Fall River presents for Investors!
Lyon Property Group4.5624 Reviews
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