Specialist · Salt Lake City, UT · Member since 2018 · 30 posts · 5 votes
California has long been seeing people exiting, and I'd speculate that COVID will increase that trend. Especially as we see tech companies like Twitter, Square, and Facebook allowing Work From Home. I personally see people from the Blue "high tax" states leaving.
Where will they go? I'd speculate: Texas, Colorado, Arizona, and Utah. (probably Idaho too)
Any states in the Midwest or places with cheaper property that you would expect people to move to?
Real Estate Agent · Scottsdale, AZ · Member since 2018 · 412 posts · 366 votes
6y
@Jeff Lundeen and @Damaso Bautista I believe Arizona will be attractive to many more West Coasters, since California already accounts for the largest number of new resident we gain each year. I think Texas may edge us out for their #1 destination, according to the most recent United Van Lines report I saw.
I was born in California, so I welcome the influx of new residents to keep the Arizona economy growing. It will be fascinating to see just how many people will accelerate their "we should move to ..." plans up to 2020.
Rental Property Investor · Torrance, CA · Member since 2016 · 724 posts · 1k+ votes
6y
@Jeff Lundeen
Arizona for the win...can’t wait to get to Phoenix. I’ll miss the ocean, that’s about it. Most people in talk to are planning on going to Arizona, Nevada, or Texas.
Boise, ID · Member since 2014 · 121 posts · 73 votes
6y
Most of my relocation business in Boise comes from California. Mostly people that are retiring or getting close They are able to build a custom home very affordably on larger lots. Most are second amendment advocates. Several have had me stop the car so they can take a photo of a sign going into a small town that says "We are not a gun free community". :) I know a lot are moving to Florida for tax reasons, but living in a retirement community of cookie cutter homes and playing bingo is not my idea of retirement.
Investor · Boise, ID · Member since 2011 · 1k+ posts · 736 votes
6y
We have been having daily conversations with Californians right now here in the Boise area. Just received a referral from a California agent an hour ago. Thankful to love where I live! I know that all the states mentioned above are big, but it feels like a lot of eyes are on Idaho right now.
Investor · Shelton, CT · Member since 2016 · 218 posts · 225 votes
6y
@Jeff Lundeen here in New England we hear and see more people talking about Tennessee! Great low tax state with a very similar 4 season climate especially in East Tenn. We have REI deals up this way but only on the cashflow end of the spectrum. There is virtually no appreciation factor to real estate up here.
I live in one of the bluest of blue states CT, and people and businesses who have the flexibility to do so are fleeing in droves. We keep hearing that NY’ers will be moving up this way following the fallout of the virus but I don’t buy it.
My family has a footprint in Tenn so in retirement it could be where we wind up, at least 6 months plus one day and live the rest of the year in New England. It takes a New Englander to realize it’s one of the most beautiful parts of the country and generally speaking the services and healthcare can’t be beat.
Rental Property Investor · Greenwich, CT · Member since 2015 · 4k+ posts · 2k+ votes
6y
I have a bit of a different perspective, @Jeff Lundeen. Most people don't live in NY-Metro or the Bay Area just for the jobs. They also live there because they like the culture, climate, amenities, and other aspects that are difficult to measure. This goes to @Jeff Piscioniere's point. Side note, Jeff, my realtor friends are fielding lots of calls from Manhattan families looking to move to Greenwich. The private school where my wife teaches has ~4X the number of inquires from Manhattan parents then they would normally get in years past. For well heeled Manhattan families, the city no longer makes sense.
I work for a very large company and have some insight into its location strategy. Much of it was driven by the high costs of office space (and to a lesser extent salaries) in places like NY. The flip side is shallower talent pools in the low-cost locations. Quality hiring is much more difficult and top talent commands top money, which starts to mitigate any savings on salary.
Companies are now finding themselves in a different position. They can potentially reduce the amount of expensive urban office space while still hiring from that very rich talent pool. I used to commute to Manhattan every day. I now question if I will ever be back, which is fine with me. I'm perfectly happy to save $300/month in commuting costs and have dinner with my family every night. I will miss the shawarma, though...
If a company can hire NY talent at NY prices, but not have to pay NY rents (or ANY rent), that's a major win-win. I actually wonder if that could slow the growth in places like DFW and Florida. We'll see.
Also, important to note that FB specifically said that any WFH employee that leaves the Bay Area will have their salary adjusted down for cost of living. I suspect most all companies will do that. This is actually the right thing for the communities that employees are potentially moving to as well. But that's a topic for another thread. The Marketplace podcast had a great discussion about this a few days ago.
Burleson, TX · Member since 2009 · 37 posts · 33 votes
6y
@Andrew Kiel
What a great insight Andrew. That makes total sense.
To answer the OP question, we here in DFW have California money and people flocking here all the time.
I only hope the newcomers who come here will adopt Texan culture. If they vote like they did back home, we here in Texas will be have a water crises, ridiculous housing prices, out of control local and state government, homeless everywhere and perpetual covid lockdowns too just like CA stuff they are trying to get away from.
Clarksville, TN · Member since 2016 · 238 posts · 96 votes
6y
I have people calling me from CA and IL all the time wanting to reinvest (1031) their money into real estate in Clarksville TN. It's crazy the number of people I work with from CA.
I have people calling me from CA and IL all the time wanting to reinvest (1031) their money into real estate in Clarksville TN. It's crazy the number of people I work with from CA.
I think Calif has 15% of the population and 30% of the RE wealth. If they come in droves it can drive RE prices in a significant way. Good luck !
Investor · New York City · Member since 2020 · 6 posts · 5 votes
6y
@Jeff Lundeen
I heard many New Yorkers aren’t necessarily leaving the state, they’re just leaving the city for the suburbs of Long Island, Westchester or maybe even the Tri-State area like the suburbs of NJ and/or Connecticut.
Buddlake, NJ · Member since 2017 · 76 posts · 21 votes
6y
@Jimmy Toussaint i definitely think ny will move out well. Then people in those city will move further out as well . I think we are seeing a 10 year jump .
Rental Property Investor · Tampa, FL · Member since 2020 · 77 posts · 42 votes
6y
@Jeff Lundeen people have long talked about how more people are leaving CA than ever. That’s true only to a point. Yes people are leaving, low income families who do not have college degrees are being pushed out by the high rents and cost. However, there’s also people moving in. You’re college grads, young with no kids and so on. So 5% may be leaving but 4% are moving in. It’s more of a change in tides than anything. I’ve read several stories on the issue after hearing this myself.
I’ve also read on the new issue brought on by Covid19. People working from home are now being told they can keep working from home. With that they no longer need to live close to work in the expensive cities. They talked about people moving to the suburbs just outside the city and abandoning the more expensive homes and apartments. The ones in the millions.
So from what I have read those leaving the cities are simply moving to the suburbs.
Investor · San Francisco, CA · Member since 2016 · 338 posts · 444 votes
6y
@Jeff Lundeen, My only beef with the "California exodus" posts is that the conversations always make it seem like this is THE END for the state, and everyone is getting out of here. I just want to point out that it's not mutually exclusive. There can be lots of people leaving the state, and California can still continue to grow and succeed. Even if it is the case that Cali is past its prime, it would take a long time for places like the Bay Area to unravel.
That being said, I think your list makes plenty of sense currently, and there are plenty of Californians to go around. There seems to be loads of data from the last several years already showing where they've been going. However, if the remote working gospel spreads in a significant way, that could actually disrupt existing migration trends. At the end of the day, people have been leaving California for places that are less expensive but that also still have good job opportunities - so often other metros. But if people really are allowed (and decide to) work from anywhere, then they will no longer be restricted to places that have strong job markets, because the company they work for is going to be based somewhere else anyhow.
Rental Property Investor · St Augustine, FL · Member since 2019 · 264 posts · 279 votes
6y
@Jim Paulson hey Jim I guess you have never lived in Florida. We golf, fish, go to the beach, dine out at great restaurants, have a night life. Not much bingo going on here. Our retirees in Florida have a very active lifestyle without the tax burden
Rental Property Investor · San Francisco, CA · Member since 2013 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
6y
Indeed, people have been leaving prime costal CA for decades. Thing is though, they have been getting replaced by people with more money and resources.