Where will people move - Exodus from Cali and NY
Specialist · Salt Lake City, UT · Member since 2018 · 30 posts · 5 votes
California has long been seeing people exiting, and I'd speculate that COVID will increase that trend. Especially as we see tech companies like Twitter, Square, and Facebook allowing Work From Home. I personally see people from the Blue "high tax" states leaving.
Where will they go? I'd speculate: Texas, Colorado, Arizona, and Utah. (probably Idaho too)
Any states in the Midwest or places with cheaper property that you would expect people to move to?
A fun trick I like to use to check one market over another: U-Haul rates for trucks.
I just looked up a one way trip on U-Haul's site from Phoenix, AZ to San Jose, CA for a 20 ft truck (June 5th pick up date). It was $153 one way.
The same truck, dates and trip from San Jose, CA to Phoenix, AZ is $1804.
This says it all.
@Jeff Lundeen it’s not necessarily out of state where people are moving to. Here in Washington I’m seeing a lot of people leave the Seattle area and head for the slightly more conservative East side like Spokane.
Having said that we have no state income tax so that makes WA a slightly unique situation.
This is my thought re: CA, too. If people here can work from anywhere, they'll probably just move somewhere cheaper in CA. What people aren't taking into consideration in this discussion, as far as why someone would or maybe should stay in CA, is Prop 13 - our law that says our properties can't be reassessed as long as we own it - and - we can pass that benefit on to our heirs. The taxes can only go up - by law - a max of roughly 1.5%/year. That's huge for homeowners or buy and hold investors.
I've lived in WA and TN, and there's a lot to like about both, except the weather. It's hard to move from the west coast to the south, culturally. Our joke about WA when I lived in the mountains a couple hours from Portland, OR, was that we had 9 months of winter and 3 months of bad sledding.
And by the way, a large portion of CA is red, as far as how the counties vote, or it's pretty evenly split red and blue. It's just in the major metropolitan areas, which are a tiny part of the entire state, that vote blue. So, you can simply move to another county and hang out with cowboys and hunt. Like Idaho with CA weather :-)
As to taxes - any place with decent amenities pays for them with taxes. So, if it isn't sales taxes, or income taxes, it will be property taxes. The taxes are there, though.
EDIT: I found this map that shows how different counties vote by party affiliation in CA: https://s.hdnux.com/photos/01/05/55/34/18274072/7/640x0.jpg
People forget how big this state is and that we still have real cowboys and cowgirls.
Do you think they will repeal Prop-13 to cover extreme budget shortfalls? I've heard that idea tossed around. Especially if tech co.s start leaving the state then CA tax revenue will continue to drop and they'll at additional revenue sources.
@Shiva Bhaskar You are on to something. Its true, imo. Austin has been booming for a very long time, no doubt about it. But at the same time the richest real estate families in Austin are considerably less wealthy than the LeFraks, the Durst, etc. I know of a few folks that own a ton of real estate here. They are doing very good as they drive Maserati's etc. But my friends are not even in the same ball park. Not even close
@Jeff Lundeen it’s not necessarily out of state where people are moving to. Here in Washington I’m seeing a lot of people leave the Seattle area and head for the slightly more conservative East side like Spokane.
Having said that we have no state income tax so that makes WA a slightly unique situation.
This is my thought re: CA, too. If people here can work from anywhere, they'll probably just move somewhere cheaper in CA. What people aren't taking into consideration in this discussion, as far as why someone would or maybe should stay in CA, is Prop 13 - our law that says our properties can't be reassessed as long as we own it - and - we can pass that benefit on to our heirs. The taxes can only go up - by law - a max of roughly 1.5%/year. That's huge for homeowners or buy and hold investors.
I've lived in WA and TN, and there's a lot to like about both, except the weather. It's hard to move from the west coast to the south, culturally. Our joke about WA when I lived in the mountains a couple hours from Portland, OR, was that we had 9 months of winter and 3 months of bad sledding.
And by the way, a large portion of CA is red, as far as how the counties vote, or it's pretty evenly split red and blue. It's just in the major metropolitan areas, which are a tiny part of the entire state, that vote blue. So, you can simply move to another county and hang out with cowboys and hunt. Like Idaho with CA weather :-)
As to taxes - any place with decent amenities pays for them with taxes. So, if it isn't sales taxes, or income taxes, it will be property taxes. The taxes are there, though.
EDIT: I found this map that shows how different counties vote by party affiliation in CA: https://s.hdnux.com/photos/01/05/55/34/18274072/7/640x0.jpg
People forget how big this state is and that we still have real cowboys and cowgirls.
Do you think they will repeal Prop-13 to cover extreme budget shortfalls? I've heard that idea tossed around. Especially if tech co.s start leaving the state then CA tax revenue will continue to drop and they'll at additional revenue sources.
This gets tossed around constantly. The only way this could get changed would be if a majority of the renters in the state went to the polls and voted to change it. And who would pay for that push? Who would have the money to wage a media campaign that would then only appeal to renters in the state? I suppose it could happen, but it hasn't happened yet. It's been 42 years.
My parents who lived in CA all their lives relocated to Whitefish, MT and they love it there. They said there are a lot of CA transplants (mainly from LA ) and they've heard Bozeman referred to as "Boz Angeles"
@Drew Holland, yes it's on the ballot again for November - https://ballotpedia.org/California_Tax_on_Commercial_and_Industrial_Properties_for_Education_and_Local_Government_Funding_Initiative_(2020)