Where will people move - Exodus from Cali and NY
Specialist · Salt Lake City, UT · Member since 2018 · 30 posts · 5 votes
Where will people move - Exodus from Cali and NY
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Investor · Tucson, AZ · Member since 2017 · 208 posts · 235 votes
6yA fun trick I like to use to check one market over another: U-Haul rates for trucks.
I just looked up a one way trip on U-Haul's site from Phoenix, AZ to San Jose, CA for a 20 ft truck (June 5th pick up date). It was $153 one way.
The same truck, dates and trip from San Jose, CA to Phoenix, AZ is $1804.
This says it all.
80 Replies
- Member since 2017 · 1 post · 1 vote6y
Being in CT myself, and speaking with my realtor while looking for various types of investment properties, many NYC'ers are coming here, its a bit quieter, within an hour of the City, good taxes etc. They're looking for a quieter place for the short term to escape the lockdowns of NYC
- Member since 2020 · 3 posts · 0 votes6y
Spot on. The more remote work becomes accepted, the less location will matter. I'd expect to see a spike in all LCOL areas in the US.
- Investor · Great Neck, NY · Member since 2016 · 679 posts · 467 votes6y
As a born and raised NYer I can tell you that things are not the same here anymore. The ridiculous real estate laws mixed with infrastructure that can't support the overwhelming amount of people is just a recipe for disaster. Personally, I am extremely happy I decided to invest out of state many years ago versus dealing with the enormous amounts of headaches you get owning properties here (I am generalizing as I'm sure this doesn't apply for everyone). In my opinion it makes a huge difference when laws favor owners.
It will be very interesting to see where things go from here considering the storm of events that have impacted us (pandemic and looting).
- Member since 2020 · 437 posts · 675 votes6y
I am taking a contrarian view and opportunistically looking to increase my RE purchases in SF and in 2021 double my investments in Manhattan.
Btw, I am not alone. As we speak several overseas investors have been calling brokers to “explore market trends”.
Roughly same guys who doubled down on RE in 2008 in SF and other large cities.
These guys happily sold back RE to local FOMO buyers in 2017.
- Folsom, CA · Member since 2018 · 134 posts · 100 votes6y
@Andrew Kiel pretty neat trick!
- Contractor · State College · Member since 2018 · 51 posts · 25 votes6y
Check this video out, he has a good explanation of migration trends and what (and why) states are looking to be hot and trending up. Stumbled across this fella pretty recently, his fundamentals are good from what I've seen so far. If you watch the video let me know what you think!
- Real Estate Agent · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2015 · 149 posts · 75 votes6y
Los Angeles agent and San Diego native here... tooting my own horn
There will be great opportunities in other markets that see great demographic trends (Boise, SLC, Phoenix), but places like Southern California will always attract top talent. I'm incredibly bullish on Los Angeles. With what's going on with the technology and entertainment industry here, there will always be great opportunities to make money in LA. - Investor · Wake Forest Area NC · Member since 2020 · 42 posts · 70 votes6y
North Carolina does not have the weather to appeal to Californians. We also lack the culture new Yorkers require. North Carolina would not be a good choice for the exodus.
Texas, Colorado and Arizona are much better choices.
- Real Estate Agent · Boise, ID · Member since 2018 · 58 posts · 39 votes6y
This is an interesting thread...always enjoying seeing everyone’s feel on the market across the country. Lots of Californians headed our way.
- Real Estate Agent · Spokane, WA & North Idaho · Member since 2017 · 135 posts · 170 votes6y
@Jeff Lundeen it’s not necessarily out of state where people are moving to. Here in Washington I’m seeing a lot of people leave the Seattle area and head for the slightly more conservative East side like Spokane.
Having said that we have no state income tax so that makes WA a slightly unique situation.
- Realtor · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2018 · 952 posts · 1k+ votes6y
@Jeff Lundeen, it’s a myth that CA has an exodus problem.
This data’s a little old, but it’s all I could find in the 5 minutes before dinner time:
In 2018, net outflow was 190K. That sounds tremendous, but it represents just 1.8% of the state. Only two states, MI and TX, have smaller departure rates as a percentage of the population.
So, CA doesn’t rank #1 in net outflow or even close to it. It ranks #48 out of 50! No problem here.
- Realtor · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2018 · 952 posts · 1k+ votes6y
@Jeff Lundeen, forgot my source: https://www.ocregister.com/190122-more-people-left-california-last-year-vs-arrived-a-38-jump
- Member since 2020 · 437 posts · 675 votes6y
As a native Californian who has traveled and lived all over the world, I will without hesitation say this is the best place to live on the planet. Affordability can be a challenge but this is also where the best jobs and companies are created!!
When I visit other countries people’s eyes light up when you tell them you are from SF (or NYC) and if they are youngsters 8 out of 10 times they tell me they have plans to come live here.
I have seen similar reactions from youngsters in several states within the US. Like it or not, cities like SF, NYC, LA will remain the hotbeds of progress, innovation, culture, lifestyle for a very long time to come. Internationally the same applies to London, Paris and Berlin.
Those who are talking about leaving the Golden state are just talking. Most are just waiting and watching it now.
Bluntly the “exodus” to us locals is like Big Foot, an urban legend about whom we hear about (almost always from people living in flyover states) but never see it in real life. Yup I know someone is going to fish out U Haul data and toss it in my face to prove me wrong but please remember the people coming in to the state may not be using U Haul, these are likely highly educated, higher paid pros who use more expensive and customized moving services rather than a DIY movers option.
- San Jose, CA · Member since 2015 · 4k+ posts · 3k+ votes6y
Originally posted by @Phil Wells:
@Jeff Lundeen it’s not necessarily out of state where people are moving to. Here in Washington I’m seeing a lot of people leave the Seattle area and head for the slightly more conservative East side like Spokane.
Having said that we have no state income tax so that makes WA a slightly unique situation.
This is my thought re: CA, too. If people here can work from anywhere, they'll probably just move somewhere cheaper in CA. What people aren't taking into consideration in this discussion, as far as why someone would or maybe should stay in CA, is Prop 13 - our law that says our properties can't be reassessed as long as we own it - and - we can pass that benefit on to our heirs. The taxes can only go up - by law - a max of roughly 1.5%/year. That's huge for homeowners or buy and hold investors.
I've lived in WA and TN, and there's a lot to like about both, except the weather. It's hard to move from the west coast to the south, culturally. Our joke about WA when I lived in the mountains a couple hours from Portland, OR, was that we had 9 months of winter and 3 months of bad sledding.
And by the way, a large portion of CA is red, as far as how the counties vote, or it's pretty evenly split red and blue. It's just in the major metropolitan areas, which are a tiny part of the entire state, that vote blue. So, you can simply move to another county and hang out with cowboys and hunt. Like Idaho with CA weather :-)
As to taxes - any place with decent amenities pays for them with taxes. So, if it isn't sales taxes, or income taxes, it will be property taxes. The taxes are there, though.
EDIT: I found this map that shows how different counties vote by party affiliation in CA: https://s.hdnux.com/photos/01/05/55/34/18274072/7/640x0.jpg
People forget how big this state is and that we still have real cowboys and cowgirls.
- Property Manager · Raleigh/Durham NC · Member since 2015 · 210 posts · 293 votes6y
@Jeff Lundeen great post topic!
After 20 years all throughout So Cal and after getting married and having my 1st kid in Santa Monica my wife and I decided there was in fact no room for the middle class in the beautiful state of Ca. We discussed Seattle, Colorado, Austin, Fort Worth, Northern Va., NorCal (for her parents), and we settled on Raleigh North Carolina. We're specifically in the town of Cary which is often turned into the acronym, C-containment A-area R-for relocated Y-Yankees.
I see a lot of people here from NY & NJ often to escape the high property taxes and cost of living. It's not often I run into too many others from California.
I will say as someone else joked earlier in this post. Our state is full :)
- Real Estate Agent · Raleigh, NC · Member since 2020 · 38 posts · 15 votes6y
Raleigh gets a lot of transplants. I don't know if many will make it all the way from the west coast but we get a ton of people from NY, MD, & DC.
- Rental Property Investor · Sioux Falls, SD · Member since 2015 · 9k+ posts · 18k+ votes6y
Originally posted by @Jay Hinrichs:
Originally posted by @Robert C.:
@Jeff Lundeen, My only beef with the "California exodus" posts is that the conversations always make it seem like this is THE END for the state, and everyone is getting out of here. I just want to point out that it's not mutually exclusive. There can be lots of people leaving the state, and California can still continue to grow and succeed. Even if it is the case that Cali is past its prime, it would take a long time for places like the Bay Area to unravel.
That being said, I think your list makes plenty of sense currently, and there are plenty of Californians to go around. There seems to be loads of data from the last several years already showing where they've been going. However, if the remote working gospel spreads in a significant way, that could actually disrupt existing migration trends. At the end of the day, people have been leaving California for places that are less expensive but that also still have good job opportunities - so often other metros. But if people really are allowed (and decide to) work from anywhere, then they will no longer be restricted to places that have strong job markets, because the company they work for is going to be based somewhere else anyhow.
I think one thing folks miss is that they pay state income tax in the state where their company is.. Not where they live..
this is a common theme here in Portland/Vancouver go to WA no state income tax.. but work for an Oregon company and you still pay Oregon income tax.. I suspect that could be true for many CA based companies.. ???
That is interesting that Oregon charges Washington residents state taxes. Do you have to physically work in Oregon or does it still apply if you are a remote employee for a company based out of Oregon? That may be a nuance in the laws. I live in a non-tax state, but work for a company in a state with state taxes. However, I have a home office, so I never "work" in the same state my company is located. I think these are two different situations:
1. Live in one state, go to work in another state.
2. Live in one state, work in that state, but for a company located in another state.
I have coworkers who are in sales and left California to live in Nevada. Since their home office is in Nevada, they don't pay California taxes. They have no office, desk, cubicle, etc. in California. I think that is a way around this. The company probably establishes your location based on how they treat you.
- Investor · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2017 · 523 posts · 476 votes6yCA investor who likes both our market and out of state markets. I used to live in NYC also, so I feel like I have some insights on that. A few things to consider:
1. Immigration: Those who immigrate to this country seem to disproportionately move to CA and NY. Down the line, they may move elsewhere (not the influx of people who immigrated to CA from Mexico in the 70's and 80's into Texas and Arizona), but we still seem to be the first stop for a lot of these folks, and many stay.
2. CA is losing folks making under $40,000 or $50,000, and gaining people making over $150,000. That's not great in the sense that you need workers of all types, but we should be careful about making it sound like the entire state is leaving to go live in Texas. People who can afford to stay here, or affluent folks from elsewhere, continue to move here.
3. B and C class rentals in major areas in CA have the lowest vacancy rates in the country, so obviously there are still plenty of people who are willing to live here, whether because of climate, family, cultural affinity, whatever.
I'm happy for all the folks succeeding in real estate in Arizona or Florida or Texas. But, let's not pretend that CA or NY are disappearing, especially at the higher end of the market. Also, investors who are able to figure out CA or NY market and adapt do very well. I don't think it's a coincidence that the wealthiest real estate families in this country (Lefrak, Goldman, Rudin, Durst, many others) are heavily anchored in NYC. - Investor · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2017 · 523 posts · 476 votes6y
Originally posted by @Justin Thorpe:
As a native Californian who has traveled and lived all over the world, I will without hesitation say this is the best place to live on the planet. Affordability can be a challenge but this is also where the best jobs and companies are created!!
When I visit other countries people’s eyes light up when you tell them you are from SF (or NYC) and if they are youngsters 8 out of 10 times they tell me they have plans to come live here.
I have seen similar reactions from youngsters in several states within the US. Like it or not, cities like SF, NYC, LA will remain the hotbeds of progress, innovation, culture, lifestyle for a very long time to come. Internationally the same applies to London, Paris and Berlin.
Those who are talking about leaving the Golden state are just talking. Most are just waiting and watching it now.
Bluntly the “exodus” to us locals is like Big Foot, an urban legend about whom we hear about (almost always from people living in flyover states) but never see it in real life. Yup I know someone is going to fish out U Haul data and toss it in my face to prove me wrong but please remember the people coming in to the state may not be using U Haul, these are likely highly educated, higher paid pros who use more expensive and customized moving services rather than a DIY movers option.
Well said Justin!
- 6yJay HinrichsBusiness MemberReal Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
Originally posted by @Joe Splitrock:
Originally posted by @Jay Hinrichs:
Originally posted by @Robert C.:
@Jeff Lundeen, My only beef with the "California exodus" posts is that the conversations always make it seem like this is THE END for the state, and everyone is getting out of here. I just want to point out that it's not mutually exclusive. There can be lots of people leaving the state, and California can still continue to grow and succeed. Even if it is the case that Cali is past its prime, it would take a long time for places like the Bay Area to unravel.
That being said, I think your list makes plenty of sense currently, and there are plenty of Californians to go around. There seems to be loads of data from the last several years already showing where they've been going. However, if the remote working gospel spreads in a significant way, that could actually disrupt existing migration trends. At the end of the day, people have been leaving California for places that are less expensive but that also still have good job opportunities - so often other metros. But if people really are allowed (and decide to) work from anywhere, then they will no longer be restricted to places that have strong job markets, because the company they work for is going to be based somewhere else anyhow.
I think one thing folks miss is that they pay state income tax in the state where their company is.. Not where they live..
this is a common theme here in Portland/Vancouver go to WA no state income tax.. but work for an Oregon company and you still pay Oregon income tax.. I suspect that could be true for many CA based companies.. ???
That is interesting that Oregon charges Washington residents state taxes. Do you have to physically work in Oregon or does it still apply if you are a remote employee for a company based out of Oregon? That may be a nuance in the laws. I live in a non-tax state, but work for a company in a state with state taxes. However, I have a home office, so I never "work" in the same state my company is located. I think these are two different situations:
1. Live in one state, go to work in another state.
2. Live in one state, work in that state, but for a company located in another state.
I have coworkers who are in sales and left California to live in Nevada. Since their home office is in Nevada, they don't pay California taxes. They have no office, desk, cubicle, etc. in California. I think that is a way around this. The company probably establishes your location based on how they treat you.
I really dont know for sure.. I do know that most airline pilots that are based out of PDX live in WA instead of Oregon :)
- 6yJay HinrichsBusiness MemberReal Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
Originally posted by @Shiva Bhaskar:
Originally posted by @Justin Thorpe:
As a native Californian who has traveled and lived all over the world, I will without hesitation say this is the best place to live on the planet. Affordability can be a challenge but this is also where the best jobs and companies are created!!
When I visit other countries people’s eyes light up when you tell them you are from SF (or NYC) and if they are youngsters 8 out of 10 times they tell me they have plans to come live here.
I have seen similar reactions from youngsters in several states within the US. Like it or not, cities like SF, NYC, LA will remain the hotbeds of progress, innovation, culture, lifestyle for a very long time to come. Internationally the same applies to London, Paris and Berlin.
Those who are talking about leaving the Golden state are just talking. Most are just waiting and watching it now.
Bluntly the “exodus” to us locals is like Big Foot, an urban legend about whom we hear about (almost always from people living in flyover states) but never see it in real life. Yup I know someone is going to fish out U Haul data and toss it in my face to prove me wrong but please remember the people coming in to the state may not be using U Haul, these are likely highly educated, higher paid pros who use more expensive and customized moving services rather than a DIY movers option.
Well said Justin!
Agreed while i have not lived in other countries or for that matter anywhere but the west coast.. However spend a lot of my business time in other states primarily mid west and did have a 9 month stint in Jackson MS.. Trying to compare these areas is not possible. for many many reasons.. Just like folks talking about IL dying when i am in Chicago its anything but dead :) However growing up in 60s Cupertino i saw the transfermation.. its a wonder of the world all until itself.
- Property Manager · Henderson, NV · Member since 2018 · 501 posts · 317 votes6y
Yesterday I had several people call on a rental listing here in Henderson NV. Every single person was from NYC. The reasons for moving were (1) now working remotely so no need to pay such high rent in NYC and (2) getting away from covid.
- Investor · Raleigh, NC · Member since 2015 · 81 posts · 210 votes6y
Originally posted by @Chris London:
@Jeff Lundeen great post topic!
After 20 years all throughout So Cal and after getting married and having my 1st kid in Santa Monica my wife and I decided there was in fact no room for the middle class in the beautiful state of Ca. We discussed Seattle, Colorado, Austin, Fort Worth, Northern Va., NorCal (for her parents), and we settled on Raleigh North Carolina. We're specifically in the town of Cary which is often turned into the acronym, C-containment A-area R-for relocated Y-Yankees.
I see a lot of people here from NY & NJ often to escape the high property taxes and cost of living. It's not often I run into too many others from California.
I will say as someone else joked earlier in this post. Our state is full :)
Yeah me too, I bought my new house in West Cary, moved from NJ 2 years ago. I miss really good Japanese food but that's about it.
- Real Estate Broker · Redwood City, CA · Member since 2014 · 679 posts · 888 votes6y
@Jeff Lundeen
Over the last 17 years I have been here in Bay Area, the population and highway traffic consistently increased, causing huge traffic problems.
Some retirees will move out, but most do not. Causing low inventory in the Bay Area.
The fact is money and talent are attracted to Bay Area, unlike anywhere else in the world.
This directly caused huge appreciation return on Real estate investment in the Bay Area - The best real estate investment location.
- 6yAnthony MorrowPro MemberRental Property Investor · Concord, CA · Member since 2020 · 37 posts · 11 votes
@Fernan Nava as a resident of Northern California I am hoping all my liberal friends will move to Texas and quietly California turns red.
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