Where will people move - Exodus from Cali and NY

Specialist · Salt Lake City, UT · Member since 2018 · 30 posts · 5 votes

California has long been seeing people exiting, and I'd speculate that COVID will increase that trend. Especially as we see tech companies like Twitter, Square, and Facebook allowing Work From Home. I personally see people from the Blue "high tax" states leaving.

Where will they go? I'd speculate: Texas, Colorado, Arizona, and Utah. (probably Idaho too)

Any states in the Midwest or places with cheaper property that you would expect people to move to?

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Andrew Kiel

Investor · Tucson, AZ · Member since 2017 · 208 posts · 235 votes

A fun trick I like to use to check one market over another: U-Haul rates for trucks.

I just looked up a one way trip on U-Haul's site from Phoenix, AZ to San Jose, CA for a 20 ft truck (June 5th pick up date). It was $153 one way.

The same truck, dates and trip from San Jose, CA to Phoenix, AZ is $1804.

This says it all.

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John D.
Investor · Wake Forest Area NC · Member since 2020 · 42 posts · 70 votes
6y
North Carolina does not have the weather to appeal to Californians.
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Filipe Pereira
Property Manager · Windsor Locks, CT · Member since 2016 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
6y
Realtor here from CT - definitely seeing an uptick in calls from NY area codes. Not sure why we're getting the calls being that we don't really service the southern part of the state, but it's happening. My broker's agents (down in East Hampton) are also reporting seeing my NY'ers.

We'll see how much of it is temporary, and how many are here to stay.
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Jess Paskach
Member since 2019 · 8 posts · 4 votes
6y
First, there are some wonderful insights in this thread, thank you to all that have shared! Second, I see a few mentions of Californians leaving their state and bringing the 'liberal' (or however you want to label it) ideals/politics to other states, which is potentially upsetting locals and I can understand where they're coming from. That said I believe this is a misunderstanding. In my experience, Californians are generally leaving the state because they want to get away from California politics, not bring those politics to their new community. About 18 months ago we moved from the central coast of California to Boise, ID and it was the best decision we could have made. Idaho continues to see a large influx of west coasters to the city (of the 80K who moved to Boise in 2018, ~21K were from CA and ~17K from WA) which is certainly boosting the local economy, but also creating tension in other places like traffic and housing costs. It will be interesting to see what takes place over the next twelve months, and we're certainly watching it closely, however I'd put my money on even more Californians moving to the Gem State.
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Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
6y
Originally posted by @Robert C.:
@Jeff Lundeen, My only beef with the "California exodus" posts is that the conversations always make it seem like this is THE END for the state, and everyone is getting out of here. I just want to point out that it's not mutually exclusive. There can be lots of people leaving the state, and California can still continue to grow and succeed. Even if it is the case that Cali is past its prime, it would take a long time for places like the Bay Area to unravel.
That being said, I think your list makes plenty of sense currently, and there are plenty of Californians to go around. There seems to be loads of data from the last several years already showing where they've been going. However, if the remote working gospel spreads in a significant way, that could actually disrupt existing migration trends. At the end of the day, people have been leaving California for places that are less expensive but that also still have good job opportunities - so often other metros. But if people really are allowed (and decide to) work from anywhere, then they will no longer be restricted to places that have strong job markets, because the company they work for is going to be based somewhere else anyhow.
I think one thing folks miss is that they pay state income tax in the state where their company is.. Not where they live..
this is a common theme here in Portland/Vancouver go to WA no state income tax.. but work for an Oregon company and you still pay Oregon income tax.. I suspect that could be true for many CA based companies.. ???

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Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
6y
Originally posted by @John D.:
North Carolina does not have the weather to appeal to Californians.
Although reality is CA has the most diverse weather in the entire United states.. Depends on where you live in CA..
its not all Lala land and 80 degrees in the winter. :) on any given day there will be one location that is the hottest in the US
"Death Valley or Red Bluff area " or the coldest Truckee just north of Tahoe. other than of course Alaska.. But mainland US.
One thing CA does not have though is HUMIDITY generally speaking.. and that is to me the toughest weather to take.

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Robert C.
Investor · San Francisco, CA · Member since 2016 · 338 posts · 444 votes
6y
@Jay Hinrichs, You're right. California charges foreign business tax at the same rates, and also claws back everything that they can even if you move. Even if you 1031 out, you will have to pay taxes from the time of you exchange out of state if you ever sell in the future. The biggest escape is still stock options that you can sell after you move away. Had I known how bad the taxes were here before I started, I would have planned ahead.
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Paul Shannon
Rental Property Investor · Fishers, IN · Member since 2016 · 337 posts · 470 votes
6y
Midwest is where its at. Low cost of living, good jobs, friendly people and most states in the region are landlord friendly. No mountains or ocean, but a good place to get ahead, build wealth, and raise a family.
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Ron Dayley
Clarksville, TN · Member since 2016 · 238 posts · 96 votes
6y
@Jess Paskach you are 100% correct, it's the Republicans that are moving to TN. I have been told by clients that they wanted to move here because of taxes and gun laws.
1 Reply
Shawn Regnier
Realtor · Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2017 · 99 posts · 97 votes
6y
As a California resident of 7+ years (my wife has been here 20 years), I think where you are in life (age, finances, if you have children), and whether you want to be close/closer to family are also determining factors.
We're both from NH originally, and while neither of us want to deal with the winters any longer, we do want to be able to jump on a quick flight to get home (or have family come to us); especially with the reality check of Covid. So for us personally, we've been starting to check out NC, SC, and FL; not for investment purposes, just as possible moves.
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Robert McAllister
Real Estate Agent · Menomonee Falls, WI · Member since 2016 · 54 posts · 45 votes
6y
Milwaukee, WI is a growing marketplace. Lots of potential here. However, the housing market is nearly tapped out. There are too many people and not enough homes. Apartments are being built at record pace and it's still not enough. Rents are high, homes sell quickly if priced right, most of the time with multiple offers! I had 11 offers on my last listing in New Berlin, 6 on my listing in Addison. If you're in a good school district, you have all the power a seller wants to have... but... where you gonna go?
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Brock Mogensen
Real Estate Syndicator · Milwaukee, WI · Member since 2018 · 1k+ posts · 907 votes
6y
I think the states you mentioned are where the bulk of people will go - FL as well. I invest in the Milwaukee area and would love to see some more migration here, however the cold might scare some west coasters away.
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Matt Millard
Lewisville, TX · Member since 2015 · 344 posts · 264 votes
6y
@Jeff Lundeen don’t come to TX we have had enough & hate the politics & prices!
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Daniel HymanBusiness Member
CPA · Milwaukee, WI · Member since 2016 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
6y
I can see the appeal of Idaho to West Coasters. I also wonder if Bozeman, Montana might pick up steam.
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Bryce Allen
Rental Property Investor · Milwaukee, WI · Member since 2016 · 62 posts · 28 votes
6y
@Daniel Hyman Bozeman is adding, on average, four people a day. The housing market there hasn’t slowed down one bit in this nonsense. There is a divide in Bozeman, IME, between people that have recently moved there and people who have lived there 20+ years. It’s not bad but it lets one know migration patterns. Bozeman has a great location and a robust economy, so it is a very viable option.
My opinion that that there will be more people moving to ID and MT using social arbitrage to become “wealthier”. So yes, I think there is going to be more growth to come out of this.
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Bill B.
Investor · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2013 · 8k+ posts · 10k+ votes
6y
More adults that live in Las Vegas were born in California than Nevada. Has been so fir a long time. Cheap houses, no income tax, cheap airfare and reasonable entertainment and food choices. And Like Jay H. Mentioned, once you’re used to low humidity, it’s hard to give up.
My wife has had 3 coworkers move to Florida and one to Texas. All 4 made it one year before moving back. Luckily they rented first.
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Cara Murray
Investor · Redding CA · Member since 2019 · 55 posts · 24 votes
6y
@Jay Hinrichs- Don't pick on us too much, I think it only got to a high of 102 degrees in the last week of May.
- A Red Bluff area girl investor
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Andre' Arceneaux
Rental Property Investor · Orange County, CA · Member since 2019 · 151 posts · 92 votes
6y
@Damaso Bautista It's been nicknamed "Orange County North" for a little while now ...
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Nick Rutkowski
Rental Property Investor · Ithaca, NY · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
6y
@Jeff Lundeen
New Yorkers are always moving to warmer weather. NY is beautiful 3 weeks out of the year. Normally it’s between the arctic tundra we call winter and the baking oven we call summer.
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Jay HinrichsBusiness Member
Real Estate Consultant · Summerlin, NV · Member since 2014 · 45k+ posts · 66k+ votes
6y
Originally posted by @Cara Murray:
@Jay Hinrichs- Don't pick on us too much, I think it only got to a high of 102 degrees in the last week of May.
- A Red Bluff area girl investor
U know what I mean it can get wicked hot there 110 to 116 not uncommon at all..

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Michael Noto
Real Estate Agent · Southington, CT · Member since 2008 · 5k+ posts · 3k+ votes
6y
There has already been multiple news articles here in CT that people are moving up here from NY. We will see if that becomes a trend or just a blip.
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Damaso Bautista
Rental Property Investor · Hawthorne, CA · Member since 2018 · 655 posts · 900 votes
6y
Originally posted by @Andre' Arceneaux:
@Damaso Bautista It's been nicknamed "Orange County North" for a little while now ...
That is what I have been hearing. A little bit too cold for my taste. But alot of good people moving up there though!!!

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Nicholas L.Pro Member
Flipper/Rehabber · Pittsburgh · Member since 2018 · 6k+ posts · 5k+ votes
6y
@Michael Noto I saw the articles about the "exodus" from NYC to CT and eagerly read, as I have some rentals in Stamford, and I found the articles...full of anecdotes and no actual stats. =)
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Fernan Nava
Rental Property Investor · Barstow, CA · Member since 2015 · 131 posts · 102 votes
6y
Watch out for them Californians, they’ll help you grow your economy. However, they bring their politics with them and if enough of them keep coming, before you know it they turn your state blue, then the search for a new state to move stars all over again.
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Account Closed
Investor · Singapore · Member since 2013 · 1k+ posts · 3k+ votes
6y
Originally posted by @Damaso Bautista:
I know many of my fellow Californian's that I have conversations with are looking for places with tax benefits and second amendment rights.
Nevada, Texas, Florida, Tennessee, and Arizona are some that come to my mind immediately.
As far as I know the second amendment applies to the whole country.

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Damaso Bautista
Rental Property Investor · Hawthorne, CA · Member since 2018 · 655 posts · 900 votes
6y
@Account Closed
Yes in concept but regulated differently in different states.
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