A lot of the storage deals I see get priced out carefully and never get a real supply check.

Here's how I run it.

About 7 square feet of storage per person is my benchmark. That's my rule of thumb, not a universal law. Markets differ. A seasonal town is going to look different than a small year-round town. But if a market is way over that number, I'm usually fighting for every tenant, and the lease-up I just modeled starts to look optimistic.

Quick example with round, made-up numbers:

Say a town of 4,000 people already has 40,000 square feet of storage, and I'm looking at another 15,000-square-foot facility. That's 55,000 square feet against 4,000 people, or about 14 square feet per person. I don't need a fancy report to know that town is heavy. I'd want a very good reason to believe I can fill empty units, or I'd walk.

The number is only the start. Then I call the other operators and ask what's actually available. How many units are empty. Whether they've been running specials. How long a 10x10 has been sitting. An offering memo can say the market is tight. A five-minute phone call often says otherwise.

I also look at what's coming. A project that's already permitted can change the math before I close. Current vacancy is the present. New supply is the future.

This doesn't replace pricing the deal. It tells me whether the upside I underwrote is actually there. A cheap facility in an overbuilt market is still a cheap facility in an overbuilt market.

For those of you looking at small facilities right now, what's your supply test?

Do you use a square-feet-per-person number, or do you go straight to calling the other operators?