How do you interpret renewal probability, downtime, and vacancy?

How do you interpret renewal probability, downtime, and vacancy?

Real Estate Investor · Miami, FL · Member since 2015 · 7 posts · 0 votes

The definition of all those terms are obvious, but if you're trying to back into a pro forma you're looking at or create your own how do all those elements work together?

For example, if there is a 75% chance of renewal, expected downtime of 3 months for a new lease, and an assumed 5% vacancy how would you put all those elements together?

Would you do .75 * market renewal rate + .25 * renewal rate*(/12)? Plus would you add a general vacancy or would that be double counting the general vacancy?

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  • Doug McLeodPro Member
    Investor · Cypress, TX · Member since 2014 · 496 posts · 205 votes
    11y

    Not sure what the right formula is, but since downtime is essentially vacancy, it seems you would be double dipping to add the 5% vacancy.

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