Can u help me put this deal 2gether? $2mil partial owner finance

Can u help me put this deal 2gether? $2mil partial owner finance

Investor · Wichita, KS · Member since 2015 · 769 posts · 279 votes

Appreciate the help and advice as this topic moves along.  A little long however figure the more info you know the better tailored your advice can be.

What I've got so far.  I met with a local gentleman who started investing in the early 90's.  After meeting with him and expressing his desire for privacy/discretion in sharing information he strikes me as the "millionaire next door" type - lives in a modest neighborhood, drives a modest car, does not want to be flashy, show off his wealth etc.

We've had the chance to meet for 2.5 hours so far.

He's in his 60's best I could tell - ready to retire.  Wants to divest part of his commercial portfolio - his stated goal is to give someone younger an opportunity and he's against selling the properties to one of the few wealthy families/dynasties that control a lot of things around here, does not want to sell through a broker or to someone with great wealth.

He stated he would not prefer to leave the property to his family and is mainly concerned with having an income stream for the next 30 years to carry him through retirement, not worried about living an extravagant lifestyle etc.  Through our conversation I understood he had owned various businesses and may still have some in existence.  Sounded like at one point he had nearly 100 employees working for him - now just has one.

*********************************************
Property Breakdown - meat and potatoes
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6 Properties total - I'd call it a "C" grade area, an older area of town built up in the 50's and 60's.  All properties are supposed to be close together and  very close to one of the hospitals (we have 3 large ones in town) and all have very easy highway access, and fairly centrally located on main arterials.  It's not a bad area, just not "new & shiny."   Not the poorest of areas, definitely not the wealthiest of areas, the large local grocery chain still maintains grocery stores there, starbucks/wal greens can be found etc.

2 shopping centers, one free standing office building, 3 other mixed use properties that have restaurants, retail and office space.  He is reporting tax value is near 3 million.  He's willing to exit at 2 million, would like 20% down and he would finance the rest so 1.6 mil and he wants a payment of $5555.55 per mo for 30 years which equates to about a 1.65% interest rate.

He may also be willing to partner with a potential buyer -- ie they turn around the properties, and when they are in a better cash position or better able to secure financing for a 20% down payment they buy him out, he may still owner carry the rest at that point as well.

So far I've only only received limited info and have not been able to see the properties as we are just beginning to talk.  He mentioned a non disclosure agreement so would assume we'll need to put one together before being given the line by line details.  I was given the general vicinity and am 99% certain I met him at one of the restaurants included in the package.  I do not have the # of tenants, but he stated to me there is some deferred maintenance, and high vacancy, however he's still cash flowing on all the properties as I was able to see his IRS Schedule E - redacted of course.  States he does not have the desire to focus all of his attention on the properties and wants to move on.  Says someone with new energy should do fine.  He has stated he has been easy going on tenants and some he has not raised the rents in 20 years among other things.

#'s on the IRS Sched E  (rounding for easier math)  (He does not have mortgages on every property - just the 2 shopping centers)
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Prop 1 - Shopping Center 55,000 SF

  • $110500                  Rents (states if full should be appx $264000)
  • $36700                    Earnings after op expenses  before Dep & Mortgage Interest 

------------------------------------------------------------------------

Prop 2 - Office Building - 12,000 SF   (I believe he occupies about 1/3 of it but will move out -- he does not pay rent on this portion of course, uses it as a writeoff)

  • $22200                    Rents (says if you lease space he uses income would be higher)
  • $8075                      Earnings after op expenses before dep &  mortgage interest

-------------------------------------------------------------------------

Prop 3 - Restaurant & Offices   (wasn't given sq footage)

  • $11400                    Rents  (says it should be appx $18k)
  • $2000                      Earnings after op expenses before dep & mortgage interest

 -------------------------------------------------------------------------

Prop 4 - Shopping Center I believe...unk sq footage - didnt get a lot of details on this one

  • $72000                    Rents - unk if it should be higher
  • $24400                    Earnings after op expenses before dep & mortgage interest

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Prop 5 - Restaurant - unk sq footage - got the impression this bldg was near the end of it's life - said best thing is at some point, scrape and rebuild - this may be a national restaurant and for the most part a NNN lease - made the comment every couple of years they tell him what they will renew the lease for. Not much he does with this one

  • $12800                    Rents 
  • $10400                   Earnings after op expenses & before dep & mortgage interest

----------------------------------------------------------------------------

Prop 6 - Storefront - unk sq footage or if rents are low

  • $22200                    Rents
  • $7600                     Earnings after op expenses & before dept & mortgage interest

**************************************************************

(Based on what he provided me - he earned appx $88k on the 6 properties before taking into account the 2 mortgages he has left and depreciation so unsure of what his exact cash flow was)

I do not know the vacancy percentage at each property - he left the impression it was high, stated one of the large wealthy familes in town who own a lot of retail space have lured some of his former tenants to their properties while he wasn't paying as close attention as he should as they gave signs they were being courted elsewhere, however he missed that.

2 Nationals and lots of mom/pops - no tattoo shops, no vape shops, no check cashing places, no liquor stores.  Only one church - however has been a good long term tenant - reverends family is extremely wealthy and always makes sure the bills are paid.

Is there something here?  I believe there is.  Throwing this out there - anyone with experience in these deals interested in entertaining a partnership?  I'd consider with an experienced individual or will figure out how to do this on my own if this is worth doing.

I've got an email in to him asking for vacancy percentage and # of units at each property.  We plan to meet again soon.

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Rental Property Investor · Rockwall, TX · Member since 2015 · 891 posts · 701 votes
11y

@Shane H.

I'd recommend you proceed with caution. This doesn't seem like much of a deal and that's based on the figures he is giving you, not what you can verify. With a 1.6M Loan, you're looking at mortgage payments somewhere in the $9,000 range, depending on what terms you can negotiate on the seller side. That doesn't include CapEx, maintenance, management, taxes, insurance, etc.

Given that you're looking to borrow the capital for the down payment, I'm not sure how you will manage the instant negative cash flow you inherit.  Additionally, if anything breaks or you have unplanned additional vacancies, I can see this going downhill quick.

To me, this sounds like a deal where the current landlord is inexperienced and/or lazy and is hemorrhaging money and he is looking for someone who isn't savvy to buy his problem for him. This could explain his true reason for not wanting to sell to his wealthy friends.  I realize that I'm far more cynical than your average person, but it helps me get by in business :)

With that being said, there could be upside if what he said was true and you have the knowledge, experience, financial backing, and skills to turn around commercial properties. You will also need to examine your local market and determine what a fair cap rate is for properties of this nature. Given that he currently has ~250k in gross rents and is a Class C Neighborhood, If this were local to me, I would be interested if he halved his asking price. 

-Christopher

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  • Investor · Wichita, KS · Member since 2015 · 769 posts · 279 votes
    10y

    @Brent Coombs  @Account Closed

    The 4.5 cap was what I formulated based the actual #'s I was provided so far.  However his properties I believe are only 30-40% occupied and I'd obviously want a lower sales price so that there is more upside.

    Maybe he's trying to suck me into a vortex - I dont know at this point.  So far from what I've seen if you bought in bulk you could then dissemble and sell off the piece you do not want as location wise it's still somewhat desirable especially for potential medical use or other office/retail functions that would go well near a hospital and on a main arterial road.

  • Investor · Honolulu, HI · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    10y

    Occupancy won't change the cap rate.  If similar properties are selling for below 4.5% then he is selling under market.  Brent doesn't understand that that is good.

  • Investor · Cleveland, OH · Member since 2015 · 6k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    10y

    Bob, I understand that buying at 4.5 cap is better than buying in a market less than 4.5 cap!

    (But, do YOU understand that buying at higher than 4.5 cap is better than buying at a 4.5 cap)?...

    I don't recall the MARKET cap rate being mentioned. Is the OP buying  - for the purpose of selling?

  • Investor · Honolulu, HI · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    10y

    Exactly!  How do you know that you are not over paying when you don't know the market cap rate?

  • Investor · Cleveland, OH · Member since 2015 · 6k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    10y
    Originally posted by @Account Closed:

    Exactly!  How do you know that you are not over paying when you don't know the market cap rate?

    Yes, but your original response to Nick L. suggested that in some circumstances, buying at a cap rate of 4.5% would be "great". Whereas Nick said, and I agree: "Any way you cut it, a 4.5% cap rate is far from great" (especially when we are looking to invest using 75% leverage)!

  • Investor · Honolulu, HI · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    10y
    Originally posted by @Brent Coombs:
    Originally posted by @Account Closed:

    Exactly!  How do you know that you are not over paying when you don't know the market cap rate?

    Yes, but your original response to Nick L. suggested that in some circumstances, buying at a cap rate of 4.5% would be "great". Whereas Nick said, and I agree: "Any way you cut it, a 4.5% cap rate is far from great" (especially when we are looking to invest using 75% leverage)!

     Brent, you do not understand.  Buying at a 4.5% cap rate might very well be GREAT.   Obviously the market thinks so if each buyer has done an analysis and plunked their money down.  Leverage is not used in a cap rate analysis.  Why are you talking about 75% Leverage?  So exactly why do you think it is far from great and exactly how far?  

  • Investor · Cleveland, OH · Member since 2015 · 6k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    10y

    @Account Closed, I noticed elsewhere that you were boasting that (some of?) your properties have been consistently retaining a 7 cap over a 40 year period.

    Do you also have some that have consistently retained a 4.5 cap from day one? 

    Are you also boasting about those? (And how did you afford them without borrowed money)?...

  • Investor · Honolulu, HI · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    10y

    Brent, cap rates are a measure of what the market is paying for a NOI. I don't invest in commercial properties so I have nothing to "boast" about. Cap rates ARE NOT A PROFIT METRIC! You are confused about cap rates. Think about them much like $per sf. I buy at $500-1,000 sf. Some people buy at $80sf. There is no profit METRIC there just like cap rates. Does that clear things up for you?

  • Investor · Cleveland, OH · Member since 2015 · 6k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    10y
    Originally posted by @Account Closed:

    Brent, cap rates are a measure of what the market is paying for a NOI. I don't invest in commercial properties so I have nothing to "boast" about. Cap rates ARE NOT A PROFIT METRIC! You are confused about cap rates. Think about them much like $per sf. I buy at $500-1,000 sf. Some people buy at $80sf. There is no profit METRIC there just like cap rates. Does that clear things up for you?

    Nope. Sorry. But I do know that if my budget is $200.00, I want maximum square footage!

    Yes, (analogies aside) I will still look at the other metrics: future potential, tenant pool, and so on.

    But please, don't try to get ME to invest in 4.5 cap properties!

  • Investor · San Francisco, CA · Member since 2016 · 314 posts · 153 votes
    10y

    So, if I'm hearing you right, @Brent Coombs you'd turn down a property with the following features:

    Cap rate: 4%

    Market cap: 1%

    Reason for the discounted cap rate: the seller just wants out. No problems with the property, they're just tired.

    I would certainly consider it, assuming I was buying commercial properties. That's buying a $1m property for $250k...

  • Investor · Cleveland, OH · Member since 2015 · 6k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    10y
    Originally posted by @Wes Brand:

    So, if I'm hearing you right, @Brent Coombs you'd turn down a property with the following features:

    Cap rate: 4%

    Market cap: 1%

    Reason for the discounted cap rate: the seller just wants out. No problems with the property, they're just tired.

    I would certainly consider it, assuming I was buying commercial properties. That's buying a $1m property for $250k...

    Wes, my understanding is this: if it cost $1m in a market that has a cap rate of 4%, it generates $40k/y (4%) after operating expenses (not including mortgage). If it cost $1m in a market that has a cap rate of 1%, it generates $10k/y (1% NOI). Did I get that wrong?

    And the reason I don't want either of them is because I would largely be using other peoples money to buy it - at >4.5% interest rate! See where I'm going with that thought?

    Bob is just as likely to favor the $10k return market, because he believes that its future appreciation must continue in the same fashion as has resulted in such an abysmal cap rate in the first place! Does anyone see anything wrong with that mantra? Cheers....

  • Investor · San Francisco, CA · Member since 2016 · 314 posts · 153 votes
    10y

    @Brent Coombs - You have it backwards. If the market cap is 4%, then the NOI on a 250k house is 10k. If the market cap is 1%, then the NOI on a million dollar house is 10k. This is important, because what's changing is not the market cap rate. You need to compare the cap rate on your purchase against the market. In my example it's the same market, same market cap, but one seller is using a 1% cap rate to value their property, and the other seller is using a 4% cap rate. This is similar to one seller selling at $250/sqft and another at $1000/sqft. They can both exist, in the same market even, but there's a typical $/sqft for the market that you need to compare against. If the number is too high or low you need to ask why. You're hung up on thinking NOI is your profitability on a deal...it's not. The same way $/sqft is not a measure of profitability. You want to look at your total return INCLUDING appreciation and rent growth when you figure out how profitable something is.

    If we take the previous thought experiment and we add "the 1% cap rate property will appreciate at a rate of 20% / year" with market data to back that up (or reason to believe that it will continue to happen) due to, say, average rent growth (no speculating on property values going up at this time), while the 4% cap rate property will only appreciate at 2%/year (tracking inflation), well, we have a very different picture of which property will be more profitable over the long term. I realize this example is somewhat contrived, but I'm using it to illustrate a point, not that I think anyone can actually find something that matches it exactly.

    If you can't afford the cost of the debt then this discussion is moot, but at that point you're not making the best investment decision you can...you're compromising on potential because you need $ today. The same as saying "those <whatever> stocks are too volatile, I'm going to invest all my money in treasury bonds". You have a "safer" return on treasure bonds, but your returns are vastly lower due to the safety.

  • Investor · Cleveland, OH · Member since 2015 · 6k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    10y

    @Wes Brand, did you get trained by Bob? Or just came to the same conclusions all by yourself?

    Either way, I don't believe I got it backwards. Cap rate math works both ways. (I already updated my post, which as you say, makes the math moot).

    For FUTURE appreciation analysis, I prefer to allow zero - so I can be pleasantly "surprised" later!

    We know what Bob's mantra is. But MY go-to mantra is: positive cash flow from day one, thanks!

  • Investor · Honolulu, HI · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    10y
    Originally posted by @Brent Coombs:

    @Wes Brand, did you get trained by Bob? Or just came to the same conclusions all by yourself?

    Either way, I don't believe I got it backwards. Cap rate math works both ways. (I already updated my post, which as you say, makes the math moot).

    For FUTURE appreciation analysis, I prefer to allow zero - so I can be pleasantly "surprised" later!

    We know what Bob's mantra is. But MY go-to mantra is: positive cash flow from day one, thanks!

    @Wes Brand has it exactly right and Brent you still have it backwards. 

    As far as ignoring appreciation rates just because is poor investing.  My signature line of "it slowly dawned on me that we won the appreciation lottery" was taken from a Honolulu "investor" that ran all the "numbers" he wanted to but not the ones that really count if you are really in investing for profit.  Based just on what he pay for his property I could have told him within 5% exactly what his property was worth based on 40 years of appreciation rates. 

    What do you think my mantra is?  Educate yourself!  You have taken anything I have said and tried to turn it around backwards.  At least you're consistent.

  • Investor · Cleveland, OH · Member since 2015 · 6k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    10y

    @Account Closed, your mantra is (and I quote): "Cap rates ARE NOT A PROFIT METRIC!"

    Whereas: unless its cap rate is greater than borrowing costs (ie. significantly greater than 4.5%), there IS no profit from day one! 

    ie. Let Bob and Wes (and other appreciation-gamblers) buy those ones, so it's THEM who have to cough up lots of extra dollars every month for years, until the rents eventually catch up)!

  • Investor · Honolulu, HI · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    10y
    Originally posted by @Brent Coombs:

    @Account Closed, your mantra is (and I quote): "Cap rates ARE NOT A PROFIT METRIC!"

    Whereas: unless its cap rate is greater than borrowing costs (ie. significantly greater than 4.5%), there IS no profit from day one! 

    ie. Let Bob and Wes buy those ones, so he has to cough up lots of extra dollars every month for years, until the rents eventually catch up)!

    I'd be happy to review your math that shows cap rates as a profit metric but you continually fail to back up any of your statements.  Saying 4.5% is a bad number is not what a sophisticated investor says.  Bring on the math!  Cap rates are also calculated WITHOUT looking at borrowing costs.  You are making up some new thing.  Let's call it a CRAP rate.  Then I can agree with you.

  • Investor · Cleveland, OH · Member since 2015 · 6k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    10y

    @Account Closed, I agree that "Cap rates are also calculated WITHOUT looking at borrowing costs", but, my purchasing decisions AREN'T!

  • Investor · Honolulu, HI · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    10y
    Originally posted by @Brent Coombs:

    @Account Closed, I agree that "Cap rates are also calculated WITHOUT looking at borrowing costs", but, my purchasing decisions AREN'T!

    Then quit discussing cap rates when you don't understand that the borrowing costs have nothing to do with you purchasing decisions.  Have you made any purchasing decisions?  I don't remember you discussing any.

  • Investor · Cleveland, OH · Member since 2015 · 6k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    10y

    "Borrowing costs have nothing to do with you purchasing decisions"?

    It's been a blast, but here endeth my responses to Bob on this thread...

  • Investor · Honolulu, HI · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    10y
    Originally posted by @Brent Coombs:

    "Borrowing costs have nothing to do with you purchasing decisions"?

    It's been a blast, but here endeth my responses to Bob on this thread...

    Exactly, your time would be better spent educating yourself about REI. Then maybe actually make a real estate investment. All you seem to be doing here is wasting your time.

  • Investor and Commercial Real Estate Agent · New York City, NY · Member since 2013 · 109 posts · 67 votes
    10y

    If the seller stated that income is his main motivation, I would explore that route. Consider doing a Master Lease with an option on the entire portfolio. Lease the entire property and give him his present net income and sign an option contract for his asking at the 4.5% Cap. 

    Once you have control start making your improvements to increase rents and find ways to lower the property's expenses. Once you do this, you effectively increase your Cap rate and of course, you pocket the new cash flow that is created. Then exercise your option to buy or just flip your contract and take your profit. 

  • Investor · Honolulu, HI · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    10y

    Jonathan, increasing the rents does not change the cap rate.  

  • Investor and Commercial Real Estate Agent · New York City, NY · Member since 2013 · 109 posts · 67 votes
    10y

    If he has an option to buy at $2 million, which he says is at 4.5% Cap NOI would be $90K. If he increases his NOI 25% to $120k, Cap goes up to 6%. ($120K/$2 million)

  • Investor · Honolulu, HI · Member since 2013 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    10y
    Originally posted by @Jonathan Marcus:

    If he has an option to buy at $2 million, which he says is at 4.5% Cap NOI would be $90K. If he increases his NOI 25% to $120k, Cap goes up to 6%. ($120K/$2 million)

    No, he is buying $90,000 NOI for $2,000,000. If he increases the NOI then the value will go up, not the cap rate. $120,000/4.5% = $2,666,667.

  • Investor and Commercial Real Estate Agent · New York City, NY · Member since 2013 · 109 posts · 67 votes
    10y

    His acquisition Cap is 4.5% but by increasing his NOI, as we both agree the value goes up. But his purchase price remains the same at $2 million. When you apply the new NOI to his price of $2 million, CAP goes up to 6%. Now, if he then decides to sell also at 4.5% Cap based on the increased NOI he gets to pocket $666,667.

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