THE REO MYTH !!!

THE REO MYTH !!!

Appraiser · BURBANK, CA · Member since 2008 · 18 posts · 0 votes

This message is for investors in CA, NV or AZ. I am a licensed broker and certified appraiser. How many of you are profiting form investing in REO properties? I can honestly tell you that the myth the gurus are spreading around that you can purchase REO properties at 50-75% of after repairs value is just as much a myth and as rare as hitting the lottery in California specially. I am not talking about states like Kansas, Arkansas or other areas where I see investors posting that they picked up a foreclosure or short sale for $15,000 that was worth $40,000 and after rehab and closing costs they make $5,000-$10,000 after three months of time. Those numbers do not fly in most states.

In my experience and after submitting approximate 50 offers in March alone on REO inventory, the lenders after they acquire the property are not willing to sell at a great discount even after 100-200 days on market. They just gradually follow the market decline until the property sells to a owner occupant at 90-95% discount which for us investors is nothing. I mean think about it, once a lender acquires the property they have it listed with an agent, which most of the time lists the property at or close to market and reduces every 30 days a little to sell. If you were the bank, wouldn't you want the maximum price attainable in the current market give or take 5-10%. I think you would have a better chance of purchasing below market if you concentrated on regular sellers since there is some desperation or emotion involved. Does anyone from Ca. agree or have a different experience?

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  • Real Estate Agent · Tucson, AZ · Member since 2008 · 10 posts · 0 votes
    18y

    As an REO Team I agree 110%. My rule of thumb for properties in the Inland Empire of Southern California is that properties 1-30 days on the market will see no more that a 3% reduction - enough to cover buyer closing costs. 30-90 DOM will see a monthly price reduction and maybe 5%- to 8% tops. By the time a property sees 120 DOM, or more and the banks, like any seller will be more open to lower offers - but not bottom feeders. after 120 DOM and 4 price reductions, we are talking 10 to 15% from then list price.

  • Appraiser · BURBANK, CA · Member since 2008 · 18 posts · 0 votes
    18y

    Mr. Hemet, also don't forget market depreciation. As the property stays longer in this depreciating market the market value gets lower as well. So, in essence your not getting any deals from the bank at all.

  • Real Estate Agent · Tucson, AZ · Member since 2008 · 10 posts · 0 votes
    18y

    You are correct Rick. I just had this conversation with a "Flipper" investor today and told him I could not help. If he was able to buy a property at even 70% below current Fair Market Value.

    By the time he closes on his escrow, typically 45 days have gone by in my market. Then he gets the property back and does his 'rehab', for say another 30 days. Then market the property - 60 to 90 days is typical - more if he wants retail value. In some categories, we currently have a 4+ year inventory of homes available...all sitting on the shelf.

    Once he gets an offer, and closes on that escrow (if it closes) and other 45 days. We are now 6 months from his original offer date. Hm, let's see a 3% monthly declining market for 6 months, why thats an 18% hit. He bought at 70% below, add his a8% and he has to sell for 88% plus double closing costs and commissions.

    That my investor friends is a tough deal to see daylight and I do not see anything going that low.

    Now, on the other hand if you want to buy and hold...well, we all know that is how wealth is created.

  • Appraiser · BURBANK, CA · Member since 2008 · 18 posts · 0 votes
    18y

    Mr. Hemet what would you suggest as far as flipping goes? How do you or your investors make money ?

  • Real Estate Investor · Katy, TX · Member since 2008 · 430 posts · 22 votes
    18y

    That's pretty crazy. Here in Houston you can get some really good deals on REO's. We are rehabbing a deal we found not too long ago now. The house is worth $130,000 ARV, which is actually really conservative. We bought the house for $78,000, and are only putting around $6,000 in repairs, pretty much all cosmetic.

    I have also seen other deals other people are making where the REO's are 50 cents on the dollar here in Houston.

  • Will BarnardPro Member
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    Developer · Santa Clarita, CA · Member since 2008 · 15k+ posts · 10k+ votes
    18y

    Flipping is a strategy best suited for un upward market, not a declining one. BUy and hold is the correct strategu right now. The market will continue to decline in 08-10. We will most likely not hit bottom until then and then recovery could start in 2011. Of course, new pres. and the fed stepping in with drastic measures may affect this.

    Stick with the safe and smart play and buy as much as you can to hold for 5-7 years, then cash out when everyone is buying.

  • Real Estate Agent · Tucson, AZ · Member since 2008 · 10 posts · 0 votes
    18y

    RICK430, the best strategy in my never humble opinion is the one described by "nationwidepi" just above - it is time to buy and hold. Find a property that will generate positive cash flow.

    In todays market, I don't think finding the right property is the key, because there are many new deals that will generate a Positive Cash Flow, even after rehab costs.

    The tricky part about investing today is finding the money. Unless you are cash rich, the banks tend to get nervous once you have 4 investment properties in your name.

  • Appraiser · BURBANK, CA · Member since 2008 · 18 posts · 0 votes
    18y

    Flipper I 100% agree. There is no way to cash flow in Ca properly, for any investor. I am thinking of investing in other states, since I know that many investors are making money on Flips. The guy from Houston above reflects what many of my associates are saying about out of state investment. You have to go where the money is. If an investor with cash can put a team together in states like Houston, Michigan, Atlanta and other places the opportunity to make money on flips or Reo's will be pretty good. I would appreciate to hear more from flippers. In other states and their experiences

  • Real Estate Agent · Tucson, AZ · Member since 2008 · 10 posts · 0 votes
    18y

    You may be right, but with the average home now selling for under$200K we are seeing positive cash flow homes come on the market almost every day...I know, I have several listed right now!

  • Appraiser · BURBANK, CA · Member since 2008 · 18 posts · 0 votes
    18y

    Thanks flipper for the example. I have been looking at Kansas for awhile and Flips only. How did you purchase the 1O house package? Was it REO or Standard ? I find that vacancy factors in Kansas are close to 10%

  • Appraiser · BURBANK, CA · Member since 2008 · 18 posts · 0 votes
    18y

    Fipper thanks for sharing, so you purchased the 10 house package for flipping and if so do you have a team in place for finding, analyzing and managing your flipps? That is the stage I am in right now for Kansas and some other states.

    Also, if I may ask, what was the profit margin on the flip of the 10 house project. Your proforma states the purchase price, but how much did you sell it for and how quick?

  • Member since 2008 · 6 posts · 0 votes
    18y

    I was frustrated with REO offers for the last several months......but there is a recent success story.
    I am investor in Ca, SF East Bay area.
    Totally agree, that buying REO under market value is very tough, for all of the above mentioned reasons.
    Recently I was able to purchase 2 SFD's significantly below market value,
    thanks to one reason only!!!!!! COOPERATIVE AND HELPFUL REO LISTING AGENT.
    I know these are difficult to come by, but if you don't have them on your side, you're wasting your time, especially if you make your offer thru another agent.
    One SFD, purchased at $129k (zillow $540k), another $175k( zillow 440k).
    The last one 3/2 will rent to a decent tenant for $1700-1800 easily (figure the cash flow)
    They are both in GOOD urban area.
    The main thing is, to be able to avoid competitive buying situation, when reasonably priced property will get overbid. I'll leave the rest to your interpretation.

  • Member since 2008 · 6 posts · 0 votes
    18y

    I'm sorry, but for obvious reasons I won't discuss the specifics. All I can say East Bay, good urban area. In bad areas you can get "on paper" cash flow easily, but the key is the area.

  • Appraiser · BURBANK, CA · Member since 2008 · 18 posts · 0 votes
    18y

    Flipper you are absolutely correct. Zill0w is a joke, as an appraiser I can tell you that most investors or brokers have no clue what market value is or how to determine if a property will cashflow properly , especially in these depreciating times. REO broker cant help much in today's foreclosure market place, they really don't have that much control over the lenders final decision making process I. Should know, since most of my offers were thru Listing agents.

  • Real Estate Investor · Knoxville, TN · Member since 2008 · 98 posts · 13 votes
    18y

    Flipper, I'm not challanging your expertise, just trying to gain a better understanding. You stated (and I totally agree) that costs do not equal "rent minus house payment, taxes, and insurance," but in the analysis you posted, the Total Operating Expenses consists of taxes, insurance, and a maintenance reserve equal to 5% of gross sched. rents. What is the basis for that last figure? It seems low to me, at least over the long-term.

    I believe some of the rental experts on here (MikeOH, for example) would use the 50% rule and analyze the deal like this:

    Gross monthly rents: 7045
    -Expenses (taxes, ins., maintenance, repairs) 3523
    (using 50% rule)
    =Net income 3522
    -debt service (490k @ 7%, 30y)
    (if you could get it at 100% LTV!) 3260
    =cash flow 262

    With a cash flow of only $26 per door per month, that doesn't look like such a great deal to some investors. I do realize that your objective was to make the portfolio look as good a possible and sell it. Now I must agree that if someone did the rehab themselves, they would have the beginnings of a good rental portfolio with $1566/mo. positive cash flow.

    Is there some reason that the 50% is not appropriate to use in your example? Perhaps I am misunderstanding something. Thanks for any clarification you can provide.

    JMac

  • Member since 2008 · 1 post · 0 votes
    18y

    Hi,

    Following the thread of finding a cash flow deal in Southern Cal is difficult, I couldn't agree more. That is why I scratch my head and wonder how is it some investors are buying and holding REOs/Short sales in SoCal in which they pay $350k or more? It doesn't make sense. Maybe someone more experience can enlighten me as to how an investor can buy and hold a property that costs more than $350k and cash flow it?

    Obviously, if these investors are using leverage then they are certainly not cash flowing as the rents don't support the expenses. So, how/why are these folks doing these deals? Even if they use 100% cash, what is their return?

    Thanks, JJ

  • Real Estate Investor · Orlando, FL · Member since 2008 · 146 posts · 5 votes
    18y

    I LOVE REO's in Florida. There is one bank in particular who I know from experience will dump property if you just ask them for it.
    Case in point, a nice 4/2 got listed in January for $430,000.00 (yeah OK)
    The actual ARV was $350K. I offered $160K right off the bat, they came back and said $170K. LOL

    Listed at $430K and accepted $170 within 30 days, nice going bank!
    Of course we bought it :D

  • Scottsdale, AZ · Member since 2008 · 342 posts · 15 votes
    18y

    FLF, you got a great deal there, just don't think that every bank will do the same type of deals for every REO.

    We have monthly goal of 35% recovery of UPB (unpaid balance) for every loan we close. Some close at 75%, some close at 0%. We typically want to see a larger size loan liquidate for no more than a 50% loss.

    I don't understand why a bank would just accept your offer @ $170K when the UPB was probably upwards of $400K. They should have at least listed it for $325K (if the ARV was $350K) and expected to see $280K for it. I suspect something was either very wrong with the property, or the numbers were messed up somewhere.

  • Real Estate Investor · Orlando, FL · Member since 2008 · 146 posts · 5 votes
    18y

    I certainly don't think that would happen every time but I know I can get REO's at 50 cents on the dollar all day long.
    The banks seem to finally be realizing the true current market value of some of this stuff though.

    Another one, a brand new 4/3 2800 sg ft SFR about 6 months ago. The home had somehow been flooded and had what some might consider to be a major mold issue.
    The bank listed it at $280K saying it was valued at $420K!
    I told them it was worth $350K (which is was) and offered them $190K which I thought was pretty fair (the repairs would have cost $20K)

    They of course refused the offer with no counter.
    Now, after being withdrawn and relisted, they now want $199K and I got a call last week from the agent informing me that the bank had kept my initial offer and they would now accept it.

    I told them that offer was 6 months old and my new one is now $160K
    I don't really want it now but if they go for the $160K I'll wholesale it straight to someone else.

    One 4/3 3100 sq ft SFR I am actually in the process of buying was listed at $330K
    It is valued at $385K I did nothing but watch it and within 45 days, the new listing price is $200K (yep, a $130K drop in 45 days!) and I have just put in an offer of $170K
    I'm guessing I'll get it for what I offered. The rehab is $35K

    There are plenty like that and we are not talking about crap houses in crap areas, these are all nice homes that just need updating.
    None have major issues (been 3rd party inspected and appraised)

    My only point is, getting to know which bank will do what is the key, knowing exactly how many homes they have in any given county helps and taking advantage of a situation when it presents itself is the only way to find out what you can get and at what price.

    Of course they also like the fact that financing is basically cash and I can close within a week helps too.

    Don't be scared to put in 15 offers on 15 homes, what's the worst they can say? No?

  • Appraiser · BURBANK, CA · Member since 2008 · 18 posts · 0 votes
    18y

    FLflipper, I am certain that your numbers on your REO's are not valid. As an certified appraiser and 20 year real estate investor, I come across all kinds of investors throwing out numbers and statements that the lender gave a 50-60% discount on a REO property and time and time again when you dissect the deal, you will see the following:

    A. Determination and analysis of market value on these properties are probably not valid.

    B. Property needs major rehab, not minor!!!!

    C. Some people are full of bull, thats right, there are many human beings who blurt out a load of bull expecting people to believe it. Don't ask me why they do it, but I have seen it happen.

    I want all newbies and investors to understand that in most high end states like, CA., NV, AZ, FL, NY and so forth, lenders have appraisers and brokers who determine market value for them not once but several times on any one given property. Back in the old days, 1980-!998 you were able to deal with a bank head on without any intermediaries and you were able to pick up properties at 70 cents or less. Today, 99% of lenders have realtors representing them and 99% of all properties are listed. There is no way that a lender will cut 40-60% on a property. Don't believe it and if they do, then might as well play the lottery. Lenders drop the listed price every 30-45 days until some purchases and usually sell about 80-90% of market value, which is great for an owner occupant but not for an investor.

    So do not let these statements from some of these people on this board get you thinking why this is not happening for you. I can tell you that most of these 40-60 cent on the dollar claims, again I am talking about high end states only, are full of bull crap.

  • Scottsdale, AZ · Member since 2008 · 342 posts · 15 votes
    18y

    Amen RICK430.

    Banks aren't stupid. They are in business for a reason. Banks typically do not like to lose money, and RE is no exception.

    As a servicing company, we get an appriasal and a BPO for any property with an unpaid balance of $100K or more. Then we have a team of in-house appraisers who set a fair market value based on the better of these two valuations. 99.9% of the time it is the appriaser who uses better comps, so the appraisal is closest to FMV.

    I am not calling FLFlipper out on anything here, maybe this is just his unique case, but I am tired of the majority thinking that you can buy every habitable REO in good condition for 50% of the Fair market value.

  • Real Estate Investor · Orlando, FL · Member since 2008 · 146 posts · 5 votes
    18y

    Thanks for your comments guys.

    Rick430, erm, I'm not too sure how you can be certain that my numbers are not valid!
    All I'm telling you is, I can make offers all day long and I will NEVER pay more than 50 cents on the dollar.
    The appraisals are done by certified appraisers chosen by the lender and they are people I do not know or have any influence over. Plus, why would I want an incorrect appraisal?

    I actually couldn't care less what a bank wants for a property. I'll offer half or less of the ARV all day long. They can take it or leave it and in my experience it has worked out just fine for me.

    RoyalT I must apologize but I do disagree that banks aren't stupid.
    Not all of them of course (maybe) but show me someone who has a wonderful fuzzy feeling for a bank. They change asset managers like they change their socks and if these guys want to dump property the way they do then there will always be people like me around to take advantge of it.

    As I clearly said in my previous post, getting to know which bank will do what is key. The cases I have mentioned are with two banks, neither of whom I will mention here. I also never mentioned anything about minor repairs although we have yet to buy anything with extensive damage, we simply don't have the need to worry about those.

    Also, remember this. It is our lender who gets the appraisal, it is our lender's inspector who comes out to determine if the rehab cost estimate matches the one we prepare and it is our lender who ultimately decides if we get the money or not.

    Based on that, why would I have any reason to throw BS out there?

    Finally, if any investors want to come down and take advantage of these 50% deals, come on down, I'd be happy to pass some your way.

  • Appraiser · BURBANK, CA · Member since 2008 · 18 posts · 0 votes
    18y

    Flipper, just because you are offering 50% of what the banks asking doesn't mean your getting the property at 50% of market value. Here is the mistake that most inexperienced investors or newbies make. I have seen lenders over list property by 15-30% and stay in the market for months. So Flipper if your offer gets accepted on a property which is 25-30% over listed considering its current condition, it does not equate to purchasing a property at 50% of its present or ARV market value.

    What I am trying to tell you is this: there is no way that I have seen within the high end states that any investor can get a property at 50 cents of as is or even ARV value. Consider it a good deal if you get 70% of ARV.

  • Scottsdale, AZ · Member since 2008 · 342 posts · 15 votes
    18y

    I agree with you on one thing FL, and its not being afraid to make a low ball offer. Like I said earlier, some of our REOs liquidate at a recovery rate of 90% some 0%. If the numbers work for the bank, then they may very well accept an offer for 50% of the fair market value, or less.

    Time is a huge factor though. If these properties sit on the market for longer than 90 days, you will usually see the banks more willing to deal. If they were just listed yesterday, they would be dumb not to see what kind of activity the listing generates in the first 30 days or so, unless the offer just meets the numbers they are seeking right off the bat.

  • Real Estate Investor · Orlando, FL · Member since 2008 · 146 posts · 5 votes
    18y

    Ok, I guess things are getting misread.
    I said before, I couldn't care less what the bank is ASKING, I offer 50% of The REAL ARV.
    WE BUY AT 50% OF ACTUAL APPRAISED ARV!
    Thanks anyway, I guess we will have to agree to disagree on this one.

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