"Weathering the storm" in Alaska (or anywhere for that matter)?

"Weathering the storm" in Alaska (or anywhere for that matter)?

Scott SewellPro Member
Investor · Anchorage AK and Hampton, VA · Member since 2012 · 140 posts · 82 votes

Hello again to all of the BP nation,
An Alaskan investor here looking for your input and advise.
To bring you up to speed on our situation here, Alaska is very much a “one horse” economy: OIL. Now we also have tourism, the U.S. government/military, and State government (which gets at least 90% of its funding from OIL). So with the recent downturn in oil prices, the oil companies are laying off, and the State is looking at unprecedented deficits, in the 50% of last years budget ballpark. All of us (here) know we are in for a downturn if not an outright recession. How long it will last, and how severe it will get is anyone’s guess.
As to our personal situation, my wife and I are what I would call “journeyman” investors. We’re not newby’s, but we’re not “master” investors by any measure. We have 17 multi-family units in 4 properties that we’ve self managed for going on ten years now and are happy with what we’ve been able to achieve (don’t get that wrong, we love this business and still want to expand, BTW, many thanks to @Brian Burke for the recent thread on 2016 markets, Great Stuff!). The majority of our property is about 75% leveraged, but we do generate and keep reserves for each property, as well as paying utilities ahead and having some small lines of credit for emergencies, and of course our net cash flow (for now).
So My question is this:
What would be your Strategy for “Hunkering down”, or “Weathering the storm” if you knew it was coming? Of course the obvious answer is sell, and it is a good time for that, but what if you couldn’t, or didn’t want to? What else would you do?

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Investor · Bethel, AK · Member since 2013 · 1k+ posts · 852 votes
10y

Hey @Scott Sewell

I am an investor in Bethel AK.  My properties are all out of state.  When the areas I am investing in turned sour a couple years ago I didn't sell any properties, I bought more.  The rents in my area never really fell much, but they never went up either. Interest rates did fall though.  I was upside down on one property in particular.  I refinanced that loan, witch lowered my payments.  This not only increased cash flow but made the payment easier to swallow when that house was empty.  I had no alternative, being upside down made selling the property a non option.  I held on and weathered the storm.  I then used lower pricing to increase my portfolio.  If your buy and hold, you gotta remember you don't loose till you sell. 

 The trouble in AK is different than it was in the lower 48.  we are talking about a recession over the whole economy not just a real estate bubble bursting.  I work for the state, and as we both know they are in deep DOO DO. I am just an airport maintenance person but  I predict a big number of state funded projects that may not get funding.  This will lower the construction /Davis Bacon jobs in the state.  I think many state jobs will not be refilled as people retire, or leave.  The slope has already laid off a bunch of people.  In addition much of the money from the fishing industry leaves the state, never to be seen in AK again.  I believe also a factor is that the State (as well as most Alaskans) is used to spending money like they had an endless supply.  I believe its going to take a while for Alaska's government and population to learn "basic economics".  Might be some opportunity here. if you want to expand your portfolio.   

 In the bush the big employers are the Feds.  the Hospital here is totally funded with federal money.  ALL supplys come to Bethal  by a thing called Bypass mail.  This keeps the air freighters out here afloat.  These things may or may not help us in the bush, as they are federal not state supported.

If I were in your shoes in Anchorage or somewhere depending heavily on the slope, or construction workers for renters, I would try to asses how low of a rent base my properties could support, and look at WHO my tenants are. Then make a decision to sell now or try to ride the storm.  If the people renting from you are not in the costruction trades or oil trades you may be ok.  Most of my tenants are the people who work at Wal-Mart, or 7-11 or retired. IE- $500-$900 a month rent in the lower 48.  In my opinion these people tend to take a financial hit a little better.  The gas station still needs clerks, Wal-Mart still needs clerks, fred myers will  still need help ETC. ETC.  I target this class because they appear to me to be more resilient in times of financial hardship.  I don't always get the big profits, but its a bit safer during an economic downturn.  This caliber of tenant also seems to be more stable.  of 7 doors I have had 2 vacancys in the last 3 years. 3 vacancys in the last 7 years.  one renter moved for severe health problems, one cos I raised the rent too much. (I should have known better)  both filled quickly.  I evicted the 3rd renter, for not paying rent.

please be aware this is just my take on wats coming for Alaska in the near future.  I am just an old guy that likes to look down the road a ways. 

Hope this helps!!

RR                     

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  • Real Estate Investor · Lansdowne, PA · Member since 2013 · 1k+ posts · 656 votes
    10y

    Oil prices seem to always take a significant dip every 7 to 8 years right around the final term of the presidency and then after the election it mysteriously goes through the sky...so by 2017 you will see that crude elevation.... at least that's been the case since the Clinton Admin...which is when I've first noticed the trend. my coin.

    Kudos,

    Mary

  • Scott SewellPro Member
    OP
    Investor · Anchorage AK and Hampton, VA · Member since 2012 · 140 posts · 82 votes
    10y

    Thanks for the reply @Mary B.,

    Always good to hear from you. But I would like to point out that we haven't seen a drop like this since the mid '80's (75%?). And I wouldn't want to 'bet the farm' on it coming back in the next year.

    My point was more of how would you invest what resources you have available to be confident you could/would make it? Refi existing debt while rates are still low? Do some CapX to make sure your property is on renters A list or lower expenses? Or, ignore this market and diversify into others?

    Also, if this trend continues, I believe there may be some opportunity on the other end (MF here has seen the same run up that I've seen others around the country talking about) and we'd like to be ready to take advantage of that.

  • Investor · Bethel, AK · Member since 2013 · 1k+ posts · 852 votes
    10y

    Hey @Scott Sewell

    I am an investor in Bethel AK.  My properties are all out of state.  When the areas I am investing in turned sour a couple years ago I didn't sell any properties, I bought more.  The rents in my area never really fell much, but they never went up either. Interest rates did fall though.  I was upside down on one property in particular.  I refinanced that loan, witch lowered my payments.  This not only increased cash flow but made the payment easier to swallow when that house was empty.  I had no alternative, being upside down made selling the property a non option.  I held on and weathered the storm.  I then used lower pricing to increase my portfolio.  If your buy and hold, you gotta remember you don't loose till you sell. 

     The trouble in AK is different than it was in the lower 48.  we are talking about a recession over the whole economy not just a real estate bubble bursting.  I work for the state, and as we both know they are in deep DOO DO. I am just an airport maintenance person but  I predict a big number of state funded projects that may not get funding.  This will lower the construction /Davis Bacon jobs in the state.  I think many state jobs will not be refilled as people retire, or leave.  The slope has already laid off a bunch of people.  In addition much of the money from the fishing industry leaves the state, never to be seen in AK again.  I believe also a factor is that the State (as well as most Alaskans) is used to spending money like they had an endless supply.  I believe its going to take a while for Alaska's government and population to learn "basic economics".  Might be some opportunity here. if you want to expand your portfolio.   

     In the bush the big employers are the Feds.  the Hospital here is totally funded with federal money.  ALL supplys come to Bethal  by a thing called Bypass mail.  This keeps the air freighters out here afloat.  These things may or may not help us in the bush, as they are federal not state supported.

    If I were in your shoes in Anchorage or somewhere depending heavily on the slope, or construction workers for renters, I would try to asses how low of a rent base my properties could support, and look at WHO my tenants are. Then make a decision to sell now or try to ride the storm.  If the people renting from you are not in the costruction trades or oil trades you may be ok.  Most of my tenants are the people who work at Wal-Mart, or 7-11 or retired. IE- $500-$900 a month rent in the lower 48.  In my opinion these people tend to take a financial hit a little better.  The gas station still needs clerks, Wal-Mart still needs clerks, fred myers will  still need help ETC. ETC.  I target this class because they appear to me to be more resilient in times of financial hardship.  I don't always get the big profits, but its a bit safer during an economic downturn.  This caliber of tenant also seems to be more stable.  of 7 doors I have had 2 vacancys in the last 3 years. 3 vacancys in the last 7 years.  one renter moved for severe health problems, one cos I raised the rent too much. (I should have known better)  both filled quickly.  I evicted the 3rd renter, for not paying rent.

    please be aware this is just my take on wats coming for Alaska in the near future.  I am just an old guy that likes to look down the road a ways. 

    Hope this helps!!

    RR                     

  • Scott SewellPro Member
    OP
    Investor · Anchorage AK and Hampton, VA · Member since 2012 · 140 posts · 82 votes
    10y

    Thanks @Ralph R.,

    That's exactly the kind of feedback I'm interested in. Our tenant base is not so dependent (directly) on the oil patch, but I'm wondering about the 'trickle down' effect, IE: good jobs leave the state, so the services they require dry up, causing more job loss, and so on through the market.

  • Investor · Bethel, AK · Member since 2013 · 1k+ posts · 852 votes
    10y

    @Scott Sewell

    I dunno how far the trickle down will go but I bet its pretty deep before its over.  The oil patch is responsible for a lot here in the upper1.  Im thinking it might be a good time to buy in the next couple years.  Anch had some pretty high prices last time I looked.  hopefully they will soften up a bit.  I was just talking to a guy in Juneau  He said they were seeing some softing a bit as Juneau is heavily dependant on the state.

    RR 

  • Real Estate Broker · Anchorage, AK · Member since 2015 · 170 posts · 46 votes
    10y

    @Ralph R. great post man! My father lives in Oregon and has a lot of family in California, and he last told me a lot of people he knows intend to move up to Alaska in the next couple of years. Not sure what for or if that is even accurate/relevant talk.

    For all of my properties I do consider the lowest rents I could establish a positive cash flow or just break black. In most cases I can lower my rent by quite a bit and still maintain my properties. I think forward thinking in a recession is pre-planning on what to do in a worst-case scenario.

    From an oil perspective, I can say globally we have an over-abundance of supply right now. With supply and demand 101, we know that is not good, especially with the Saudis not lowering their oil production.


    From what I've read, I expect a lot of the outfits that are fracking in Canada and the Northern states to probably file bankruptcy and be sold out, or do tremendous amounts of volume to stay afloat, worsening conditions. If they do declare bankruptcy, could be good for us if some of the oil companies up here can get there hands on them.

    From a RE perspective, I immagine a pretty stable this year, with perhaps a decline coming late in the year. If we do see a comparative decline, I would expect a 3-6% hit in the RE economy for 2017, continuing for about 3-5 years. I think the end of this year will be a good indicator of what is to come.

  • Investor · Eagle River, AK · Member since 2015 · 122 posts · 45 votes
    10y

    Great questions and answers @Scott Sewell, @Ralph R and @James Cash. I live in Eagle River and like you Scott, am concerned about our future. I really want to buy, but there are no bargains here and yes, I try to analyze based on lowest likely rent. I lived here during the mid-80's crash and I owned an apartment that usually rented for $900/month that I couldn't get $200 for in the midst of the crash. I'm very leery, probably too much so, I think that's the same as chicken??

    Ralph R are you looking for property in Bethel? Not mine, but I know someone.

  • J. MartinPro Member
    Rental Property Investor · Oakland, CA · Member since 2011 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    10y

    @Scott Sewell ,

    CASH IS KING WHEN THINGS ARE BAD.
    Keep savings, keep credit available, keep cash. You can service problems for a while if you have cash on hand. It's hard to see oil making a big comeback when supply is up and a worldwide slowdown is bringing demand down, along with China..

  • Scott SewellPro Member
    OP
    Investor · Anchorage AK and Hampton, VA · Member since 2012 · 140 posts · 82 votes
    10y

    Thanks for the input @James Cash, @Dolly Caswell,

    I think I agree with your forecast James, although late this year is definitely to late to have a plan! 

    I too remember the crash in the '80's Dolly (although I think RE is in a whole different place this time) and how I wish I'd had some cash available in '87-8 when I could have bought 2BR condo's for 20-30K all day long!

    And Thanks for chiming in as well @J. Martin, I was hoping to get some more input from outside AK. So you'd suggest becoming a cash Hoarder rather than making prudent CapX investments?

  • J. MartinPro Member
    Rental Property Investor · Oakland, CA · Member since 2011 · 3k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    10y
    Originally posted by @Scott Sewell:

    Thanks for the input @James Cash, @Dolly Caswell,

    I think I agree with your forecast James, although late this year is definitely to late to have a plan! 

    I too remember the crash in the '80's Dolly (although I think RE is in a whole different place this time) and how I wish I'd had some cash available in '87-8 when I could have bought 2BR condo's for 20-30K all day long!

    And Thanks for chiming in as well @J. Martin, I was hoping to get some more input from outside AK. So you'd suggest becoming a cash Hoarder rather than making prudent CapX investments?

     If there are great deals coming, or if you run into problems, I think you'll be happy you had extra cash. If no deals or problems emerge, you can always spend your cash on CapX. If deals or problems do emerge, you can't pay past due bills or buy discounted properties with your CapX.. 

  • Scott SewellPro Member
    OP
    Investor · Anchorage AK and Hampton, VA · Member since 2012 · 140 posts · 82 votes
    10y

    Thanks @J. Martin,

    Hard to argue with that. Probably time to direct some more pennies (ie: cash flow) toward the piggy bank (ie: reserves).

  • Residential Real Estate Broker · Portland, OR · Member since 2016 · 92 posts · 31 votes
    10y

    Hi Scott:

    While I cannot commend on you investment properties in particular, and also on Alaska economics. But on the commodities trading part, based on technical analysis, we are quite close to the bottom of crude price, maybe one more spike down to complete the whole downturn (maybe ~$22 to 23 range). It should be up for the next half of the year and 2017. Now, I am not sure how much and how fast it will rise, and how it will affect the property market in Alaska. :)

    Thanks

    Say

  • Investor · Hamilton, OH · Member since 2013 · 139 posts · 27 votes
    10y

    For me personally, I would try to remain as liquid as possible.  I would do this for 2 reasons: 1- should something bad happen (extended vacancy, inability to refinance or job loss...etc) you can cover those expenses.  2- if no major expenses occur you can use those funds (once market bottoms out) to buy at extremely great prices!!!

  • Scott SewellPro Member
    OP
    Investor · Anchorage AK and Hampton, VA · Member since 2012 · 140 posts · 82 votes
    10y

    Hope your right @Say Teoh,

    sounds like you might do this for a living?

    Thanks, @Dustan Marshall, sounds like that's the consensus.

    Already channeling those pennies!

  • Residential Real Estate Broker · Portland, OR · Member since 2016 · 92 posts · 31 votes
    10y

    @Scott Sewell, I do not do that for a living, but equity, options and futures investments are something I do on top of real estate broker/investment, which is on top of my day time job. :) So just take it as an observation from a noobie. We will see how the crude market perform a year from now... Personally, I sure hope it will rise and stabilize, plunging crude price is not good for anybody, except for my gas gussler. :)

  • San Diego, CA · Member since 2015 · 136 posts · 62 votes
    10y
    Originally posted by @Mary B.:

    Oil prices seem to always take a significant dip every 7 to 8 years right around the final term of the presidency and then after the election it mysteriously goes through the sky...so by 2017 you will see that crude elevation.... at least that's been the case since the Clinton Admin...which is when I've first noticed the trend. my coin.

    Kudos,

    Mary

     Mary - If you can make calls like this you should consider starting a commidities hedge fund. 

  • Real Estate Investor · Lansdowne, PA · Member since 2013 · 1k+ posts · 656 votes
    10y

    @James Paine I'm not quite that good but thank's for the vote of confidence. :-)

    Kudos,

    Mary

  • Real Estate Investor · Anchorage, AK · Member since 2015 · 117 posts · 42 votes
    10y
    Great post Scott Sewell !! As an Anchorage resident and rental property owner, this is something I have been worrying about for the last year. Thanks for the post! Start the savings!
  • Real Estate Broker · Anchorage, AK · Member since 2015 · 170 posts · 46 votes
    10y

    @Say Teoh I also hope you're right. From a supply/production perspective, we have not yet seen the low. If current production, supply and demand keep up, the low price of crude will extend beyond this year and perhaps even throughout 2017. However, I will say, any market may be synthetically inflated/deflated due to propaganda, politics, or gouging. Hard to say for sure. If we "knew" what was coming, we'd all be talking about this on our flying yachts. :P

  • Scott SewellPro Member
    OP
    Investor · Anchorage AK and Hampton, VA · Member since 2012 · 140 posts · 82 votes
    10y

    Whats the price tag on a "Flying Yacht" these days? I think I need one. Do they work in Hawaii? 

    I find the gravitational effect to be much stronger there.  

  • Investor · Orange County, CA · Member since 2015 · 2k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    10y

    I like the way Benajamin Graham (Warren Buffet's mentor) thought about things, and layed them out as the foundation of value investing: profit margins and discounts to intrinsic value aren't just for profits, but they are also your "margin of safety". If you buy it right, you will have plenty of margin of safety to insulate you from and even opportunitsticly take advantage of short term market fluctuations. Also, big margins also lend themselves to allowing flexibility for multiple exit strategies. It is much easier to keep your focus on the long game if you are well insulated in the short term. This is the underlying philosophy I try to guide my investments.

  • Scott SewellPro Member
    OP
    Investor · Anchorage AK and Hampton, VA · Member since 2012 · 140 posts · 82 votes
    10y

    Wow. @David Faulkner,

    I like it. Deep but simple.

    I had to read it twice to be sure I got it right, but then again carpenters aren't known for their intellect.

  • Flipper/Rehabber · York, UK · Member since 2013 · 895 posts · 453 votes
    10y

    Thanks for the thread guys, I was just talking with another Denver investor about prices dipping in Alaska. We both like the idea of owning something up there that we would hold for personal use but preferably with multiple units so it can pay for itself.  Do you see the largest impact of oil hitting Anchorage and northern "company town" areas?  What about places like Juneau or Sitka?

    I fell in love with AK when I worked up in Kennicott/McCarthy in the tourism industry.

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