What takes priority in MF properties, strategy or market cycle?

What takes priority in MF properties, strategy or market cycle?

Bethlehem, PA · Member since 2015 · 27 posts · 8 votes

So it seems there's a lot of conflicting info and I was hoping to get some clarification. I hear a lot of investors choosing to not buy multi-family properties due to the market being over-inflated.  But I also hear investors teach strategies depending on where the market cycle is. 

So my original strategy this year was to house-hack a 4-plex to begin building my portfolio. (I'm a newbie). However, with all the articles I'm reading, it seems mulit-family is reaching it's peak in the cycle, so I'm wondering if this option is still viable. I'm finally in a position to make this happen this year. So my question is, based on your experience, is house-hacking a 4 plex a good option this year, or would a different strategy work better considering the current market climate? 

(I'm currently renting, and don't want to waste money on someone else's mortgage. So whatever strategy you might suggest that's different from above, I would like to move into my own place, one way or another.)

Thanks in advance for any feedback!

Happy investing!

Mike

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Real Estate Agent · Renton, WA · Member since 2017 · 204 posts · 151 votes
7y

Hi @Mike Hoherchak there will always be a cycle in real estate, the thing to keep in mind that real estate is a long game for building wealth.   When analyzing your deals, does it meet your investment criteria.  If you Buy Right, Manage Right and Finance Right your on your way to creating financial freedom no matter what the market is doing. Happy Investing!

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  • Real Estate Agent · Renton, WA · Member since 2017 · 204 posts · 151 votes
    7y

    Hi @Mike Hoherchak there will always be a cycle in real estate, the thing to keep in mind that real estate is a long game for building wealth.   When analyzing your deals, does it meet your investment criteria.  If you Buy Right, Manage Right and Finance Right your on your way to creating financial freedom no matter what the market is doing. Happy Investing!

  • Multifamily Syndicator · Greater Los Angeles Area · Member since 2015 · 399 posts · 261 votes
    7y

    @Mike Hoherchak I completely agree with @Quito Keutla and would also say to focus on a niche and stick with it, it's very easy to get caught up in the shiny object game.  Make sure you have solid buying criteria and stick to those criteria.  The people who get in trouble are the ones who bend on their criteria to make a "deal" work because it's difficult to find something that actually fits their original criteria.  With the market where it is, it's important to stay disciplined and as long as you buy right you should be ok.

  • Rental Property Investor · Michigan City, IN · Member since 2015 · 530 posts · 741 votes
    7y

    @Mike Hoherchak in my opinion if you are buying a quality asset that cashflows and can provide moderate to strong returns you are in great shape. If you can lock in long-term fixed financing going after the small stuff, as long as you are ok hanging on if valuations turn around, you are ok. But if you are buying stuff just to buy and or really stretching the underwriting you can get yourself into a lot of trouble. The challenge is so many start to stretch the underwriting and it leaves fewer deals resulting in more people trying to stretch the underwriting to get a deal done. It is a vicious cycle until something forces a shock to the system. Stay patient and stay focused on the real goal with all this craziness and every day is always a good day to buy. 

  • Bethlehem, PA · Member since 2015 · 27 posts · 8 votes
    7y

    Thanks guys for the responses. I know there are things I don't know, so I'm just trying to shed a light on those things. 

    @Joel Florek

    @Joel Florek What do you mean by stretching the underwriting? I've never heard that phrase. I can assume what you mean by it, but was curious your definition.

  • Real Estate Agent · Phoenix, AZ · Member since 2016 · 69 posts · 83 votes
    7y
    @Quito Keutla is 100% correct. I hate hearing people holding off because of the market. If you buy a sustainable product correctly you can still make great money no matter what market cycle. You just have to plan properly in your underwriting. We are still buying multi family. I close on a property next week that we are buying at a 10% cap. The good deals are out there.
  • Bethlehem, PA · Member since 2015 · 27 posts · 8 votes
    7y

    Thanks, @Marjeanne Fields! I never planned on holding off, I am planning on making something happen this year regardless. I was just wondering if, as an example, a live-in SF flip might be a better strategy for the time being, over MF. 

  • Rental Property Investor · Michigan City, IN · Member since 2015 · 530 posts · 741 votes
    7y
    Originally posted by @Mike Hoherchak:

    Thanks guys for the responses. I know there are things I don't know, so I'm just trying to shed a light on those things. 

    @Joel Florek

    @Joel Florek What do you mean by stretching the underwriting? I've never heard that phrase. I can assume what you mean by it, but was curious your definition.

     When people say that they can get 5% rental increases every year for the next 7 years. Or they assume that they can sell at a lower cap rate then what the current market is at. They assume that they can still refinance the property at the 5 year balloon with the current rates we see today. They pinch all of property management to 5% or

  • Specialist · New York, NY · Member since 2018 · 17 posts · 27 votes
    7y

    If you're trying to house hack, as long as you're going to be able to carry your property in the event rents fall by 5-10% then you'll be fine.

    The real worry is for investors who are buying larger multifamily properties and banking on most of their returns coming from a sale at a low exit cap rate.

  • Bethlehem, PA · Member since 2015 · 27 posts · 8 votes
    7y

    Thanks Josh! That makes sense.

  • Russell BrazilBusiness Member
    Moderator
    Real Estate Agent · Washington, D.C. · Member since 2012 · 17k+ posts · 30k+ votes
    7y

    Most peoples investing timeline is only like 25 years, from age 30 to 55 or so. Our lives are simply not long enough to let timelines of cycles, of which we can not predict, to be the driving force in our investment decisions.

  • Rental Property Investor · St. Paul, MN · Member since 2016 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    7y

    Buying at peak cycle leaves little room for mistakes, where as buying at or near the bottom, gives you a lot of room to mess up. 

    If you buy now: 

    1. make sure you have ample cash reserves

    2. buy for cash flow first and appreciation through added value only.

    3. Use long term fixed debt

    4. Don't over leverage

    5. Don't over-pay (again base you purchase on the financials)

    6. Buy in decent neighborhoods

  • Real Estate Agent · Philadelphia, PA · Member since 2018 · 416 posts · 396 votes
    7y

    Investors create good deals!  There are deals in every cycle.  I am a newbie investor still working towards my first deal, but as a real estate agent I have seen this to be true.

  • Member since 2018 · 83 posts · 66 votes
    7y

    @Mike Hoherchak strategy all the way... buy right, buy for cashflow, and don’t over-leverage, and you’ll be fine.

  • Bethlehem, PA · Member since 2015 · 27 posts · 8 votes
    7y

    @Account Closed Thanks for the reply. This is what I was thinking from the jump..buy for cashflow, less vacancy risk with 4 units (vs. SFH). However, with being over-leveraged, do you mean putting a large down payment? My plan is to purchase the property using a VA loan and my intention was just to pay for closing costs.

  • Member since 2018 · 83 posts · 66 votes
    7y

    @Mike Hoherchak yes, putting zero down does make it more risky. If you wanted to be much safer, I’d say 25-30% down. If you’ll still be able to cover your loan payments with some vacancy, then it could work... just don’t get upside down on your loan-to-value requirements.

  • Real Estate Agent · Astoria, NY · Member since 2016 · 60 posts · 55 votes
    7y

    At the end of the day, you aren't buying a market, you're buying an asset or property. As long as the underlying numbers for that asset are strong (and accurate), then it shouldn't matter what sort of market you are in. The important caveat here is to account for all contingencies or possibilities (or as many as possible). In other words, be real with your numbers and account for "worst case scenario" possibilities.

    Where market cycle comes into play, in my opinion, is in the overall availability of properties that meet your criteria or are profitable, and in providing context for you to consider your numbers and your exit strategies. There are profitable properties in EVERY market, because each seller and each property is unique. But how you run your numbers and what considerations you make may shift depending on the market conditions. Nobody has a crystal ball, however, so the best thing to do is be conservative in your numbers and adhere to your criteria. Buy good assets with intrinsic value that are underperforming, undervalued, or distressed, and maximize their potential.

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