27 Units SW Florida - Help Me Analyze This Deal - Raising Capital

27 Units SW Florida - Help Me Analyze This Deal - Raising Capital

Portland, OR / SW Florida · Member since 2017 · 41 posts · 32 votes

Looking at a 27 unit complex in SW Florida. Two and three bedroom town homes, built in 2016 & 2017. Have the rent rolls and financials since inception. Fully rented with average rent of $1550. Vacancy running around 5% (limited operating data but this is in line with market for the area). Property is in a great location, close to employers, the beach, shopping etc. Would attract retirees and younger professionals. Expenses have been running 25% of gross rents. ~$483,000 gross rents, ~$123,000 annual expenses (includes prof mgmt @ 10% of rents). Off market buying direct from the developer who wants cash out to move on to new projects. I've reason to believe we can close the deal in the $4.5-$4.75M range. Going in cap roughly 7.5. Market caps for the area have been in the 6-6.5 range and at the lower end for new build, in strong locations like the subject property. Conservative market value estimate $5.5M. Property should easily support debt at 75% LTV. Would be looking to raise ~$1.2M of which $500k coming from personal funds. I'm based in Portland, Oregon but have other properties in SW Florida and have been invested in Florida for almost 20 years. Also have people on the ground in Florida I've known for several years, done deals with, and trust. So even though I'm out of state this is not outside my core competence.

Thoughts on the deal? 

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Real Estate Technology · San Francisco, CA · Member since 2016 · 262 posts · 265 votes
7y

@Matthew Ringer

Upon first glance, your operating expense ratio looks low. 

You might consider running this by a few property managers in the area. Do you have a favorite picked out?

Put your operating strategy into an underwriting model. If you're planning to hold in perpetuity, use year 10 as your "hypothetical" sale date. This will help you measure how viable this deal is given various financing and downside scenarios.

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  • Real Estate Technology · San Francisco, CA · Member since 2016 · 262 posts · 265 votes
    7y

    @Matthew Ringer

    Upon first glance, your operating expense ratio looks low. 

    You might consider running this by a few property managers in the area. Do you have a favorite picked out?

    Put your operating strategy into an underwriting model. If you're planning to hold in perpetuity, use year 10 as your "hypothetical" sale date. This will help you measure how viable this deal is given various financing and downside scenarios.

  • Portland, OR / SW Florida · Member since 2017 · 41 posts · 32 votes
    7y

    @Tyler Kastelberg, my thoughts too on the OpEx. I've never done a new build before, so could understand some lower maintenance cost. I've got my property manager down there looking at it. I've not done a deep dive diligence yet, but from the financials I've seen nothing smells but overall the expenses do seem light. 

  • Real Estate Technology · San Francisco, CA · Member since 2016 · 262 posts · 265 votes
    7y

    @Matthew Ringer

    All caveats about not being informed on the market aside ... I'd expect a new build of that size to be running at a 35% opex ratio. When modeling, I'd expect the opex ratio to increase over your hold period as repair and maintenance costs and turnover costs become more relevant to your operations.

  • Portland, OR / SW Florida · Member since 2017 · 41 posts · 32 votes
    7y

    @Tyler Kastelberg Thanks for the input. I'll model it over 10 ramping the OpEx to more typical levels and see if it holds up. 

  • Real Estate Investor · Smithtown, NY · Member since 2015 · 14 posts · 12 votes
    7y

    I look at expenses in 4 buckets: 1) Utilities, 2) Administration, 3) Taxes & Insurance and 4) Maintenance. The first three (3) are very definable. The last one is where all the wiggle room is. Breaking it down in this manner may help you triangulate on a tighter estimate of overall expenses a bit more.

    That said, 10% for Management on a rent roll of that size strikes me as quite high. 

  • Bjorn AhlbladPro Member
    Investor · Shelton, WA · Member since 2017 · 6k+ posts · 6k+ votes
    7y

    @Matthew Ringer congrats on the find! Sounds like a solid property. I agree the expenses are light probably because you are using actuals and there is no accounting for building up reserves, as in capex, vacancies, bad debt etc. I would use 40% of income, @Tyler Kastelberg suggested 35 and he is probably right; but you want to be conservative. Stick with it and keep us posted!

  • Portland, OR / SW Florida · Member since 2017 · 41 posts · 32 votes
    7y

    @Richard Masino Great call out. As I look at the taxes/insurance they look really light. May be from when they were paying tax on the land. Would be considerably more now that it’s developed. Thanks for the feedback.

  • Portland, OR / SW Florida · Member since 2017 · 41 posts · 32 votes
    7y

    @Bjorn Ahlblad Thank you. I’ll run it at 40% and see how it shakes out.

  • Investor · Grovetown, GA · Member since 2015 · 100 posts · 67 votes
    7y

    @Matthew Ringer I agree with Tyler. The expenses are low. Conservatively expenses should run between 40%-50%. (Closer to 40%) That aside, you should get the full rent roll and expenses from the developer. Even though he developed the property that information should be available through him or the property management.

    If you go forward on this transaction make sure it’s on actuals. I’m concerned the developer may be fluffing the numbers. If you haven’t checked out Joe Fairless’s syndication book take a look! It gives a great example of the process. Good luck!

    Richard

  • Rental Property Investor · Clearwater & Daytona Beach, FL · Member since 2019 · 194 posts · 197 votes
    7y

    Just make sure they provide the actual income/expenses. Not the “what it should do” version. I like it though at $4.5m if everything is legit. Passes the 1% rule 😂

  • Portland, OR / SW Florida · Member since 2017 · 41 posts · 32 votes
    7y

    @Richard Capers Jr Thanks for the input. Agree expenses seem low. I’ve got rent roll and financials from the developer. I know enough about the rental market that the income looks reasonable, but expenses not so much. Right now I’m negotiating on what I’ve been given and then will retrade if during diligence actuals are materially different.

  • Portland, OR / SW Florida · Member since 2017 · 41 posts · 32 votes
    7y

    @Eric Mayer yeah we’ll see as I’m just digging in. Think it will likely be “errors of omission” on the expense side. Income will verify through lease audit, deposits, etc and I don’t expect to find much as what has been provided thus far seems reasonable. We shall see though. Appreciate your input.

  • London · Member since 2019 · 722 posts · 386 votes
    7y

    A general principle for negotiations.

    If one side things the numbers say X and the other side thinks there is a gap in the numbers (under reporting of expenses for example), consider a buy out that is spread over time.

    You run the totals the way the seller wants to present things. You run the numbers the way the buyer thinks the numbers stack. Then you agree that any difference can be deferred until the info becomes more clear. This is how a lot of businesses are sold when the the seller is the owner operator.

    I am not saying that many property owners looking to sell will like this. Some will go for it. Or, they will be OK to agree seller financing for part of the amount. You can make two offers. Your price based on the numbers you believe and an offer that can work if the seller's numbers stack up once you have control.

    If the data does not support the seller's price, that is the seller's problem. If you do not buy, there may be a chump who will step up and buy even with the gaps. Let them do so if they want to take the risk.

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