Appreciation Over Cashflow...Will Get You More Cashflow

Appreciation Over Cashflow...Will Get You More Cashflow

Real Estate Agent · Chandler, AZ · Member since 2022 · 216 posts · 156 votes

I know this title might be confusing but this is what I tell new investors or friends when I meet with them. 

Cashflow Should Not be the only thing you Consider when Buying Rental Properties. Like many I started my Real Estate Investing Journey obsessed with the idea of Cashflow and gaining my own Financial Freedom. I mean in theory it makes perfect sense, If I could create more cashflow than my monthly expenses. Than theoretically I would be financially free. I wouldn't have to work another day in my life doing things that I didn’t want to do.

I think a lot of other new investors come to that conclusion as well. If I could get X amount of rental properties bringing me this amount of cashflow monthly, I'll be financially free. While I think cashflow has its purpose, it’s the way we get to the heavy cashflow and financial freedom that I have a different perspective on.

I see this with a lot of friends, beginner real estate investors and others on platforms like Bigger Pockets. As I did my first couple of years, a lot of these investors want to invest in markets that are really cheap to get into but have high cashflow

I know friends who bought homes in states like Ohio for 50K, and it rents for $800/month. This easily achieves the 1% rule which means its rents are 1% of the total purchase price.

And theoretically this would be a great deal. The problem with these cheap rentals are that when you really start to look at the true cashflow. After all the headaches, maintenance and management issues it doesn’t end up being much. And then when you go to sell the property after you realize that you end up selling it for about the same as what you paid for it. That's why I don't invest in these markets…..for now.

A couple of reasons I don't like investing in cheap markets. #1) a lot of times when the rents are lower your property has a lot more issue and headaches with the tenants, they are generally more challenging to manage.

Another reason I don't like them is that one repair can completely wipe out your cashflow for the year. If your rents are 1000/month only call it 20% of that is kept from cashflow that amounts to $2400 for the entire year. One repair like a furnace or electric panel will eat up all of that cashflow. Let's cross our fingers and hope that we don't have any issues with larger ticket items like the roof or sewer.

I also don't mind putting nice things into a home when it raises the value of the property but in a lot of these cheaper markets that's the thing it doesn’t increase the value. The biggest reason why I don't like cheap markets is because of the appreciation. That's the trade off markets that have a high cashflow right out of the gate typically don't appreciate. If I buy a house for 80K today chances are its going to be about the same price in 10 years if I go to sell it or refinance.

So these are some of the reasons I don't like cashflow markets. Now let's talk about what I do like……the high appreciation markets. If you buy properties in these markets, like Phoenix. These markets give you the best chance to build your net worth. Let's look at what happened from 2019 to 2023 in the Phoenix market.

If you purchased a home for 300K in 2019 chances are that home almost double in value in the 4 your period up to 2023, that same home is probably worth about 550K today increasing your net worth 250K.

That's just one house. What if you owned 5 properties. If each of these properties went up by 250K in value your net worth would have increased $1.25M. Not bad and for most of us that would easily surpass our income over that same period. Now I know its not realistic that home prices double again over such a short period of time but if you look at how much money our government is printing and how bad inflation has been over the last couple of years. Real Estate is a hedge against inflation and inflation is directly responsible for home prices going up so drastically.

Do I think home prices will double again over the next 10 years in these high appreciation markets?

I personally do believe they will.

Now let's take a look at your average home here in the Phoenix market and how you really get a huge monthly cashflow that can not only greatly increase your net worth but also give you the monthly cashflow you need to retire comfortably.

If you purchase a home for $550K it will typically rent for $2700 a month which doesn't get you even close to the 1% rule and is likely not going to cashflow. However I would still rather buy this property than the cheap property in the midwest that makes me 200-300/cashflow a month. In 15 years from now the 550K property in Phoenix could potentially be valued at over $1M. Your going to make some great cashflow once its paid off and it is still renting for $4K/month. Now what's that 80K property in the Midwest worth, I don't know but I'm guessing best case $100K to $120K.

My philosophy is this, while you are working and making a good income and you don't need the cashflow, you don't need to be financially free right away. I would rather increase my net worth and balance and then take the cashflow later on. It’s not like you will not have cashflow forever, it will cashflow in time. I'm not suggesting that you buy properties that are losing money monthly. What I am suggesting is find properties in high appreciation markets, rent them aggressive strategies such as Airbnb or Room by Room. To where your mortgage and utilities are covered by the rents. Then let the market do the work to greatly increase your net worth.

If you want do get financially free buy more homes than you need. If you think it will take 5 paid off homes to make you financially free. Do your best to acquire 10 of these homes. Let the market do the work. Once they’ve increased in value, sell half of them off and payoff the remaining mortgage on the 5 properties you keep

In conclusion I don't think you should not only be thinking about cashflow. You should also be thinking about increasing your net worth and balance sheet. We just talked about appreciation, but there is also so many other benefits to owning more expensive real estate. Depreciation being one of them. I do want to say this video was in relation to single family homes. When you are looking at larger multifamily properties. I do think it makes sense to go to these cheaper and higher cashflow markets because of scale and the ability to force appreciation when improving the properties cashflow.

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Investor · Arroyo Grande, CA · Member since 2014 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
3y

I had to stop reading when you tritely cited Ohio rentals and the on paper numbers not translating to reality. People love to say this, but it's just not true.

I have 12-doors in Detroit, a market you would classify as "cheap". I have capex and repair data for these properties and I can tell you that, yes, the theoretical numbers work in practice.

I focused on cash flow with a mind for appreciation. I chose areas of Detroit I believed had potential to appreciate that also offered strong cash flow immediately. 

It's been insanely rewarding for me. I will soon be financially free from the cash flow... and I live in California, a high cost of living area.

The appreciation has also been fantastic. My portfolio has increased 2.5x on average over the last four years. 

Focusing purely on appreciation now and taking those profits to invest in cash flow later makes sense for some folks. If you enjoy your job and aren't in a hurry to be free of it... who cares about waiting a couple decades. 

I didn't want to wait that long so I took a more aggressive, yet calculated approach. I'm constantly grateful I ignored warnings like these about "cheap markets" and instead decided the risk/reward for at least testing the market was far too favorable to ignore.

See this reply in the discussion

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  • Morris County, NJ · Member since 2020 · 5k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    3y

    @Andrew McGuire

    Thanks for the long post.  I THINK we just covered this in the below thread:

    Cash flow is NOT king!

  • Real Estate Agent · Chandler, AZ · Member since 2022 · 216 posts · 156 votes
    3y
    Quote from @David M.:

    @Andrew McGuire

    Thanks for the long post.  I THINK we just covered this in the below thread:

    Cash flow is NOT king!


  • Phoenix, AZ · Member since 2022 · 2 posts · 0 votes
    3y

    Completely cringe take lol

  • Real Estate Agent · Phoenix, AZ · Member since 2022 · 19 posts · 13 votes
    3y
    Quote from @Andrew McGuire:

    I know this title might be confusing but this is what I tell new investors or friends when I meet with them. 

    Cashflow Should Not be the only thing you Consider when Buying Rental Properties. Like many I started my Real Estate Investing Journey obsessed with the idea of Cashflow and gaining my own Financial Freedom. I mean in theory it makes perfect sense, If I could create more cashflow than my monthly expenses. Than theoretically I would be financially free. I wouldn't have to work another day in my life doing things that I didn’t want to do.

    I think a lot of other new investors come to that conclusion as well. If I could get X amount of rental properties bringing me this amount of cashflow monthly, I'll be financially free. While I think cashflow has its purpose, it’s the way we get to the heavy cashflow and financial freedom that I have a different perspective on.

    I see this with a lot of friends, beginner real estate investors and others on platforms like Bigger Pockets. As I did my first couple of years, a lot of these investors want to invest in markets that are really cheap to get into but have high cashflow

    I know friends who bought homes in states like Ohio for 50K, and it rents for $800/month. This easily achieves the 1% rule which means its rents are 1% of the total purchase price.

    And theoretically this would be a great deal. The problem with these cheap rentals are that when you really start to look at the true cashflow. After all the headaches, maintenance and management issues it doesn’t end up being much. And then when you go to sell the property after you realize that you end up selling it for about the same as what you paid for it. That's why I don't invest in these markets…..for now.

    A couple of reasons I don't like investing in cheap markets. #1) a lot of times when the rents are lower your property has a lot more issue and headaches with the tenants, they are generally more challenging to manage.

    Another reason I don't like them is that one repair can completely wipe out your cashflow for the year. If your rents are 1000/month only call it 20% of that is kept from cashflow that amounts to $2400 for the entire year. One repair like a furnace or electric panel will eat up all of that cashflow. Let's cross our fingers and hope that we don't have any issues with larger ticket items like the roof or sewer.

    I also don't mind putting nice things into a home when it raises the value of the property but in a lot of these cheaper markets that's the thing it doesn’t increase the value. The biggest reason why I don't like cheap markets is because of the appreciation. That's the trade off markets that have a high cashflow right out of the gate typically don't appreciate. If I buy a house for 80K today chances are its going to be about the same price in 10 years if I go to sell it or refinance.

    So these are some of the reasons I don't like cashflow markets. Now let's talk about what I do like……the high appreciation markets. If you buy properties in these markets, like Phoenix. These markets give you the best chance to build your net worth. Let's look at what happened from 2019 to 2023 in the Phoenix market.

    If you purchased a home for 300K in 2019 chances are that home almost double in value in the 4 your period up to 2023, that same home is probably worth about 550K today increasing your net worth 250K.

    That's just one house. What if you owned 5 properties. If each of these properties went up by 250K in value your net worth would have increased $1.25M. Not bad and for most of us that would easily surpass our income over that same period. Now I know its not realistic that home prices double again over such a short period of time but if you look at how much money our government is printing and how bad inflation has been over the last couple of years. Real Estate is a hedge against inflation and inflation is directly responsible for home prices going up so drastically.

    Do I think home prices will double again over the next 10 years in these high appreciation markets?

    I personally do believe they will.

    Now let's take a look at your average home here in the Phoenix market and how you really get a huge monthly cashflow that can not only greatly increase your net worth but also give you the monthly cashflow you need to retire comfortably.

    If you purchase a home for $550K it will typically rent for $2700 a month which doesn't get you even close to the 1% rule and is likely not going to cashflow. However I would still rather buy this property than the cheap property in the midwest that makes me 200-300/cashflow a month. In 15 years from now the 550K property in Phoenix could potentially be valued at over $1M. Your going to make some great cashflow once its paid off and it is still renting for $4K/month. Now what's that 80K property in the Midwest worth, I don't know but I'm guessing best case $100K to $120K.

    My philosophy is this, while you are working and making a good income and you don't need the cashflow, you don't need to be financially free right away. I would rather increase my net worth and balance and then take the cashflow later on. It’s not like you will not have cashflow forever, it will cashflow in time. I'm not suggesting that you buy properties that are losing money monthly. What I am suggesting is find properties in high appreciation markets, rent them aggressive strategies such as Airbnb or Room by Room. To where your mortgage and utilities are covered by the rents. Then let the market do the work to greatly increase your net worth.

    If you want do get financially free buy more homes than you need. If you think it will take 5 paid off homes to make you financially free. Do your best to acquire 10 of these homes. Let the market do the work. Once they’ve increased in value, sell half of them off and payoff the remaining mortgage on the 5 properties you keep

    In conclusion I don't think you should not only be thinking about cashflow. You should also be thinking about increasing your net worth and balance sheet. We just talked about appreciation, but there is also so many other benefits to owning more expensive real estate. Depreciation being one of them. I do want to say this video was in relation to single family homes. When you are looking at larger multifamily properties. I do think it makes sense to go to these cheaper and higher cashflow markets because of scale and the ability to force appreciation when improving the properties cashflow.


    I agree with this 1000%. The areas that are desirable now (and therefore harder to cashflow presently) are historically generally going to appreciate at a much faster rate than something cheap in a tiny market that shows good cashflow on paper. Rents should follow that same pattern logically. I'd rather be sitting on an massive pile of equity in 10 years than cashflow a few extra thousand annually in the meantime (assuming rents don't increase to the point that you end up with more cumulative cashflow over that same time period anyways).

    Obviously this isn't a hard science and I'm not knocking the high cash flow/low appreciation approach in any way. Just giving my two cents.

    @James Walworth lets hear your point of view

  • Real Estate Agent · Chandler, AZ · Member since 2022 · 216 posts · 156 votes
    3y

    @James Walworth Well said. First one that said this to me in a much shorter and direct way was ben leybovich. I asked him what is one thing you wish you knew about Real Estate when you first started out? He told me you don't get into Real Estate for cashflow, you get in it to build massive wealth and that is done through appreciation. 

  • Rental Property Investor · Boston, Massachusetts (MA) · Member since 2016 · 2k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    3y

    cheap is expensive

  • Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    3y
    Quote from @Andrew McGuire:

    I know this title might be confusing but this is what I tell new investors or friends when I meet with them. 

    Cashflow Should Not be the only thing you Consider when Buying Rental Properties. Like many I started my Real Estate Investing Journey obsessed with the idea of Cashflow and gaining my own Financial Freedom. I mean in theory it makes perfect sense, If I could create more cashflow than my monthly expenses. Than theoretically I would be financially free. I wouldn't have to work another day in my life doing things that I didn’t want to do.

    I think a lot of other new investors come to that conclusion as well. If I could get X amount of rental properties bringing me this amount of cashflow monthly, I'll be financially free. While I think cashflow has its purpose, it’s the way we get to the heavy cashflow and financial freedom that I have a different perspective on.

    I see this with a lot of friends, beginner real estate investors and others on platforms like Bigger Pockets. As I did my first couple of years, a lot of these investors want to invest in markets that are really cheap to get into but have high cashflow

    I know friends who bought homes in states like Ohio for 50K, and it rents for $800/month. This easily achieves the 1% rule which means its rents are 1% of the total purchase price.

    And theoretically this would be a great deal. The problem with these cheap rentals are that when you really start to look at the true cashflow. After all the headaches, maintenance and management issues it doesn’t end up being much. And then when you go to sell the property after you realize that you end up selling it for about the same as what you paid for it. That's why I don't invest in these markets…..for now.

    A couple of reasons I don't like investing in cheap markets. #1) a lot of times when the rents are lower your property has a lot more issue and headaches with the tenants, they are generally more challenging to manage.

    Another reason I don't like them is that one repair can completely wipe out your cashflow for the year. If your rents are 1000/month only call it 20% of that is kept from cashflow that amounts to $2400 for the entire year. One repair like a furnace or electric panel will eat up all of that cashflow. Let's cross our fingers and hope that we don't have any issues with larger ticket items like the roof or sewer.

    I also don't mind putting nice things into a home when it raises the value of the property but in a lot of these cheaper markets that's the thing it doesn’t increase the value. The biggest reason why I don't like cheap markets is because of the appreciation. That's the trade off markets that have a high cashflow right out of the gate typically don't appreciate. If I buy a house for 80K today chances are its going to be about the same price in 10 years if I go to sell it or refinance.

    So these are some of the reasons I don't like cashflow markets. Now let's talk about what I do like……the high appreciation markets. If you buy properties in these markets, like Phoenix. These markets give you the best chance to build your net worth. Let's look at what happened from 2019 to 2023 in the Phoenix market.

    If you purchased a home for 300K in 2019 chances are that home almost double in value in the 4 your period up to 2023, that same home is probably worth about 550K today increasing your net worth 250K.

    That's just one house. What if you owned 5 properties. If each of these properties went up by 250K in value your net worth would have increased $1.25M. Not bad and for most of us that would easily surpass our income over that same period. Now I know its not realistic that home prices double again over such a short period of time but if you look at how much money our government is printing and how bad inflation has been over the last couple of years. Real Estate is a hedge against inflation and inflation is directly responsible for home prices going up so drastically.

    Do I think home prices will double again over the next 10 years in these high appreciation markets?

    I personally do believe they will.

    Now let's take a look at your average home here in the Phoenix market and how you really get a huge monthly cashflow that can not only greatly increase your net worth but also give you the monthly cashflow you need to retire comfortably.

    If you purchase a home for $550K it will typically rent for $2700 a month which doesn't get you even close to the 1% rule and is likely not going to cashflow. However I would still rather buy this property than the cheap property in the midwest that makes me 200-300/cashflow a month. In 15 years from now the 550K property in Phoenix could potentially be valued at over $1M. Your going to make some great cashflow once its paid off and it is still renting for $4K/month. Now what's that 80K property in the Midwest worth, I don't know but I'm guessing best case $100K to $120K.

    My philosophy is this, while you are working and making a good income and you don't need the cashflow, you don't need to be financially free right away. I would rather increase my net worth and balance and then take the cashflow later on. It’s not like you will not have cashflow forever, it will cashflow in time. I'm not suggesting that you buy properties that are losing money monthly. What I am suggesting is find properties in high appreciation markets, rent them aggressive strategies such as Airbnb or Room by Room. To where your mortgage and utilities are covered by the rents. Then let the market do the work to greatly increase your net worth.

    If you want do get financially free buy more homes than you need. If you think it will take 5 paid off homes to make you financially free. Do your best to acquire 10 of these homes. Let the market do the work. Once they’ve increased in value, sell half of them off and payoff the remaining mortgage on the 5 properties you keep

    In conclusion I don't think you should not only be thinking about cashflow. You should also be thinking about increasing your net worth and balance sheet. We just talked about appreciation, but there is also so many other benefits to owning more expensive real estate. Depreciation being one of them. I do want to say this video was in relation to single family homes. When you are looking at larger multifamily properties. I do think it makes sense to go to these cheaper and higher cashflow markets because of scale and the ability to force appreciation when improving the properties cashflow.


     this has been the secret since 1972 I guess LOL

  • Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    3y

    one secret recipe is:

    If you have 100k cash rather than buying 4 cash flowing 100k midwest class C house, it's best just to buy one 400k house out of CO,HI,CA ; leave it for 5 years and sell.

    Usually, the rate of appreciation is higher because it's run from exponential rise, while cash-flow is simple rise.
    10% rising from 1 mil house is very different than 10% rising from a 100k miles.

  • Real Estate Agent · Chandler, AZ · Member since 2022 · 216 posts · 156 votes
    3y
    Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

    one secret recipe is:

    If you have 100k cash rather than buying 4 cash flowing 100k midwest class C house, it's best just to buy one 400k house out of CO,HI,CA ; leave it for 5 years and sell.

    Usually, the rate of appreciation is higher because it's run from exponential rise, while cash-flow is simple rise.
    10% rising from 1 mil house is very different than 10% rising from a 100k miles.


    I agree with that, the idea of only one roof, water heater, electric box etc. sounds better to me as well. 

  • Rental Property Investor · San Francisco Bay Area · Member since 2022 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    3y

    @Andrew McGuire

    I really like this perspective. My Bay Area properties (one SFH solely owned, one a multi unit co-owned) will outperform my Indiana ones. My SFH in very nice Indianapolis suburb has increased 100% in value (up by $140,000) since 2013. I'm pretty sure the appreciation on any California, Arizona or Nevada SFH has been higher than that in the past 10 years. Cash flow $224 - it used to be higher but my property taxes go up with no limit (no Proposition 13 like in California). I bought a Class C potentially B turnkey in March 2023 for $130,000 - this is in a transitional area in Indy with rough looking homes next to renovated ones. Cash flow $176 a month. With the interest rates at 7.5 to 8% now, I'm buying more for tax benefits and appreciation not CF.

    I started looking at how many properties I would need to buy to replace my W2 income if I’m using cash flow as the model. It sounds like a huge headache to have 50 to 60 properties (mostly SFHs with a few duplexes) in the Midwest - all those roofs and HVAC systems to replace, property management fees, tenant turnover. I’m also of the mindset of owning fewer high quality properties than having 100 doors. I’m re-considering California, Nevada and Arizona. The price points for the Bay Area, LA or San Diego will be really tough but Arizona and Nevada are more attainable for me. 

  • Investor · Atlanta, GA · Member since 2021 · 20 posts · 25 votes
    3y

    I generally agree with your take. The appreciation in a good market will likely far exceed any cash flow that you get in a less desirable market. It still comes down to location, location, location.

    That said, I would never take on a property that was negative cash flow. 

  • Real Estate Agent · Chandler, AZ · Member since 2022 · 216 posts · 156 votes
    3y
    Quote from @Becca F.:

    @Andrew McGuire

    I really like this perspective. My Bay Area properties (one SFH solely owned, one a multi unit co-owned) will outperform my Indiana ones. My SFH in very nice Indianapolis suburb has increased 100% in value (up by $140,000) since 2013. I'm pretty sure the appreciation on any California, Arizona or Nevada SFH has been higher than that in the past 10 years. Cash flow $224 - it used to be higher but my property taxes go up with no limit (no Proposition 13 like in California). I bought a Class C potentially B turnkey in March 2023 for $130,000 - this is in a transitional area in Indy with rough looking homes next to renovated ones. Cash flow $176 a month. With the interest rates at 7.5 to 8% now, I'm buying more for tax benefits and appreciation not CF.

    I started looking at how many properties I would need to buy to replace my W2 income if I’m using cash flow as the model. It sounds like a huge headache to have 50 to 60 properties (mostly SFHs with a few duplexes) in the Midwest - all those roofs and HVAC systems to replace, property management fees, tenant turnover. I’m also of the mindset of owning fewer high quality properties than having 100 doors. I’m re-considering California, Nevada and Arizona. The price points for the Bay Area, LA or San Diego will be really tough but Arizona and Nevada are more attainable for me. 


    You hit it right on, it would be much easier to own 5-10 properties that out earn 40 in the cheaper markets and you will likely gain many times more appreciation on those 5-10. 

  • Dan H.Pro Member
    Investor · Poway, CA · Member since 2015 · 7k+ posts · 8k+ votes
    3y

    I was in agreement until

    >If you think it will take 5 paid off homes to make you financially free. Do your best to acquire 10 of these homes. Let the market do the work. Once they’ve increased in value, sell half of them off and payoff the remaining mortgage on the 5 properties you keep

    There goes your leverage.  I question how long you been using your approach.  The reason I ask is leverage combined with the appreciation is the wealth generator.

    Do you know which state has the most investor owned property by percentage?  Ca.  Ohio that is well represented on BP is near the lowest.  My point is many investor realize that appreciation trumps cash flow.  The stats demonstrate historically appreciation provides better return for long holds and that investors recognize this.  

    Good luck

  • Real Estate Agent · Chandler, AZ · Member since 2022 · 216 posts · 156 votes
    3y

    I agree that leverage is one of the things that makes Real Estate a powerful wealth generator and is a good thing. I was using as an example as a low risk easy way to attain financial freedom, if of course you were okay not going big and living on that income that the 5 homes would provide. I personally have a goal of putting 10 paid off homes into a bullet proof structure that will always be there should I shoot for the moon and leverage larger multifamily properties and it doesn't work out, will have that to fall back on worry free. 

  • Rental Property Investor · San Francisco Bay Area · Member since 2022 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    3y
    Quote from @Dan H.:

    I was in agreement until

    >If you think it will take 5 paid off homes to make you financially free. Do your best to acquire 10 of these homes. Let the market do the work. Once they’ve increased in value, sell half of them off and payoff the remaining mortgage on the 5 properties you keep

    There goes your leverage.  I question how long you been using your approach.  The reason I ask is leverage combined with the appreciation is the wealth generator.

    Do you know which state has the most investor owned property by percentage?  Ca.  Ohio that is well represented on BP is near the lowest.  My point is many investor realize that appreciation trumps cash flow.  The stats demonstrate historically appreciation provides better return for long holds and that investors recognize this.  

    Good luck

    Dan, I appreciate this perspective. I started making 2 extra principal payments on 2 different rentals (at 6.5% and 6.99% rate) because my "sort of financial advisor" (I don't pay him a fee since I haven't bought any funds through him) said if can't find another investment with better return than 6.5 to 7% I should pay down those mortgages. He isn't a real estate investor and thinks I have too much tied up in RE. I have 4 rentals (1 SFH Bay Area, 1 Bay Area multi-unit co-owned with family mortgage free, 2 SFHs in Indy) so I don't think I'm over leveraged. Mortgage on primary residence here. I stopped paying extra principal payments after I talked to a few investors. I'm also looking at the interest payments on those mortgages and are the interest payment part of rental expense tax write offs on those rentals more beneficial than paying down the mortgages?

    If I'm trying to retire early from W2 job or reduce it to contract work in 3 to 7 years (3 years is really ambitious), should I be using leverage to acquire more properties or pay down those mortgages? Also my kids would be inheriting properties with mortgages if I don't pay off/pay down any of the mortgages. My thought process was also to save up more funds to buy in Arizona or Nevada in 6 to 12 months instead of buying another inexpensive SFH in Indy right now.

  • Morris County, NJ · Member since 2020 · 5k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    3y

    @Becca F.

    You basically have a "good problem" to have.  It really depends on how conservative you want to be.  realize that if you have a mortgage at 7% interest, since you able to deduct it your effective cost is reduced by the tax savings.  That makes it easily less than 5%.  Since, currently its about "even"

    I think which is "more beneficial" is more attributable to your investment strategy and risk tolerance.  The "power of leverage" would suggest to keep the mortgages in place, but that is a long term strategy.  However, if you want to generate cash flow sooner than later, then paying them down is a good idea.  The trade-off is the "leverage gain."

    Not sure what is your concern with your chidlren inheriting the properties with mortages.  The rents should still be there to cover the mortgage payment, right?  They will still become landlords...  If you are trying to pass along more "wealth," however, that is again dependent on how you determine it.  

    I hope that helps.  Good luck.

  • Eric FernwoodBusiness Member
    Realtor · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2014 · 996 posts · 1k+ votes
    3y

    Excellent comments on this thread. I decided to add my 2¢’s.

    Return Calculation Limitations

    Return calculations only predict how a property is likely to perform on day one under ideal conditions. Return calculations tell you nothing about the future. Because you will hold a property for many years, what happens after the first day is far more important than what happens on day one.

    Financial Independence

    In order to have financial independence you need a income replacement equal to your current income that also meets three requirements:

    • Inflation compensating: Rental income keeps pace with inflation, enabling you to pay inflated prices to maintain your standard of living.
    • Persistent income: Your income will last so you will not run out of money.
    • Reliable income: Your income continues even in difficult economic times.

    Unless rents keep pace with inflation, your time off the daily worker treadmill will be short. This is because inflation will continue to increase prices, and you will not have the additional dollars you need. Regardless of how many “Property A’s” you own, your buying power will decrease each month, and you will be forced back onto the treadmill of daily work.

    Rent Follows Prices

    Property prices are driven by supply and demand.

    • If there are more sellers than buyers, prices will fall.
    • If there are more buyers than sellers, prices will rise.

    Rental rates are driven by property prices.

    • If prices rise, fewer people can afford to buy and will be forced to rent. Demand for rental properties increases as will rents.
    • If prices fall, more people will be able to buy so fewer people will rent. Demand for rental properties decreases as will rents.

    In short, where prices go, rents follow. However, rents typically take 2 to 5 years to catch up with changes in property prices. This lag is primarily due to leases, which are usually for one year or longer.

    What Drives Demand?

    Population change is what drives housing demand.

    In cities where the population is increasing, the demand for housing exceeds the current supply. This causes prices to rise until a balance is reached between the number of sellers and the number of people who can afford to buy.

    In cities where the population is static or declining, there are more sellers than buyers. This results in a decrease or stagnation of property prices. This trend continues until there is a balance between sellers and buyers. Low property prices are the result of years of low demand for housing. In other words, housing prices have not kept pace with inflation, resulting in lower property prices when compared to cities with increasing populations. Rents follow property prices, so if prices have not kept pace with inflation, neither will rents. If you buy in such a location, rent increases will not keep pace with inflation, and your buying power will continue to decline over time. No matter how many low-cost properties you own, your days of financial freedom are limited by how long you can continuously decrease your living costs.

    If you purchase property in a city with higher demand, prices will be higher, but rent increases are likely to keep pace with inflation. If they do, you will achieve permanent financial freedom.

    Your financial independence is tied to the city's ability to quickly grow its economy, create jobs, and increase its population. Do you want to risk your financial independence by betting that cities like Detroit, Cleveland, and many others with declining populations will somehow turn around and become economic powerhouses?

    Do You Make the Most Money With Cash Flow or Appreciation?

    An example will explain far better than text.

    Suppose you have two properties. Property A has a 7% appreciation rate with no cash flow. Property B has a 7% cash flow but no appreciation. To keep the example simple, I ignored all other variables except for personal income taxes, which I assumed to be 30%.


    Why Low-Cost Properties Are the Most Expensive

    To replace your current income, you will likely need to acquire multiple properties. The total amount of capital required to acquire multiple properties depends on the city's appreciation rate. In the following examples, I will assume you need 20 properties to replace your current income. I will also assume the downpayment is 25% of the purchase price.

    In a low-priced location, I will assume each property costs $200,000. To keep things simple, I will only consider the capital needed for down payments and ignore all the other costs like renovation, closing costs, etc., and no inflation.

    Total capital from savings required for 20 down payments: 20 x $200,000 x 25% = $1,000,000 in after-tax dollars. The fact that all capital will come from after-tax dollars means that if your marginal tax rate is 35%, you will need to earn (gross) 1,428,571 to have $1,000,000 after taxes. $1.4M will take a lot of years to accumulate. And, if there is inflation you will need a lot more capital.

    Higher price location - Suppose you purchased in a high appreciation market and each property costs $400,000. In a high-appreciation location, you use cash-out refinance when there is sufficient equity for the down payment on the next property. In this case, the total capital required for down payments will be:

    First property capital requirement: $400,000 x 25% = $100,000

    Each additional property is purchased with accumulated equity from the previous properties. This is how many of our clients grew their portfolios. The process is illustrated below.

    In summary, if you buy in low-cost locations, every investment dollar must come from your after-tax savings. If you buy in a high-appreciation location, even though prices are higher, you will need significantly less capital because the majority of the capital required can be obtained from cash-out refinance.

    Summary

    Low-cost locations may seem alluring initially, but it's important to look beyond the first-day returns and consider the long-term performance of the property over the next 20 to 40 years.

    FERNWOOD Team, KW VIP Realty520 Reviews
  • Rental Property Investor · Member since 2018 · 826 posts · 810 votes
    3y

    @Becca F. Been interesting observing your RE journey. I thought it would take you longer to realize the value of high cost markets once you left, but you came around quickly.

    I don’t think replacing W2 income will be easy with passive investing on the coasts, but efficient equity build is very achievable. You can always refi to access the equity, so it’s less liquid…but still accessible.

  • Scott TrenchPro Member
    Rental Property Investor · Denver, CO · Member since 2014 · 2k+ posts · 6k+ votes
    3y

    I completely subscribe to your premise, which is why I invest in denver, but also acknowledge its truths only if the investor can achieve “enough” and at some point let debt amortize and not continually releverage.

    meaningful Cash flow is achieved in a growing market, for the most part, after repositioning an asset to highest and best use, or when it is lightly leveraged or debt free.

  • Investor · Arroyo Grande, CA · Member since 2014 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    3y

    I had to stop reading when you tritely cited Ohio rentals and the on paper numbers not translating to reality. People love to say this, but it's just not true.

    I have 12-doors in Detroit, a market you would classify as "cheap". I have capex and repair data for these properties and I can tell you that, yes, the theoretical numbers work in practice.

    I focused on cash flow with a mind for appreciation. I chose areas of Detroit I believed had potential to appreciate that also offered strong cash flow immediately. 

    It's been insanely rewarding for me. I will soon be financially free from the cash flow... and I live in California, a high cost of living area.

    The appreciation has also been fantastic. My portfolio has increased 2.5x on average over the last four years. 

    Focusing purely on appreciation now and taking those profits to invest in cash flow later makes sense for some folks. If you enjoy your job and aren't in a hurry to be free of it... who cares about waiting a couple decades. 

    I didn't want to wait that long so I took a more aggressive, yet calculated approach. I'm constantly grateful I ignored warnings like these about "cheap markets" and instead decided the risk/reward for at least testing the market was far too favorable to ignore.

  • Sam YinPro Member
    Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2021 · 584 posts · 738 votes
    3y

    @Travis B.

    Ditto!!!

    There are many approaches. There is no one perfect approach. This topic has been discussed often. It's nice to see more people thinking about it.

    Travis said something profound... if you love your job, then it will be great for you to wait decades to achieve FI from your appreciation strategy. However, for those of us that want freedom quicker, the appreciation strategy that has been laid out is not the answer.

    Then the question is: do you want your time freedom now at an able young age, or do you want it a few decades later when you are not as able and not as young?

    Easy comparison, 2 to 5 years of investing intentionally for cash flow and be free of W2 OR 20 to 30 years of investing for appreciation while working W2? Which is more worth it to you, the cash flow investment strategy that allows you to have the freedom to transition to appreciation later WITH the freedom of time meanwhile? OR the W2 that you love for the next 20+ years to get to time freedom? Then at the end of the day, will your children (if that's your 'why' like mine) appreciate and be able to carry on the generational wealth??? If you were never free enough to fully influence them in their childhood years??? Or do you think that after 20+ years of sacrifice to build wealth you will have any influence on the adult they became as they were influenced by societal norms?

    These are questions people may not have asked themselves. Only you know what the right answer is for YOU. As for me, and a few others that I have read from on BP, investing for cashflow now to get to FIRE sooner is the answer. When I made the conscious choice to go down this REI path, it took a few years to get to FIRE. I get to spend ALL DAY with my family if I want to and I'm still investing for generational wealth. But there is no W2 holding my time down. Had I gone the other way, I might likely create even more wealth because my W2 would have supported my investments longer. I chose the first path for my family legacy.

  • Real Estate Agent · Chandler, AZ · Member since 2022 · 216 posts · 156 votes
    3y
    Quote from @Scott Trench:

    I completely subscribe to your premise, which is why I invest in denver, but also acknowledge its truths only if the investor can achieve “enough” and at some point let debt amortize and not continually releverage.

    meaningful Cash flow is achieved in a growing market, for the most part, after repositioning an asset to highest and best use, or when it is lightly leveraged or debt free.


     Agree, cashflow is great and is something every investor wants but most of my cashflow has been created by appreciation and refinancing then buying more properties that are heavy cashflow. If that makes sense...

  • Real Estate Agent · Chandler, AZ · Member since 2022 · 216 posts · 156 votes
    3y
    Quote from @Allan C.:

    @Becca F. Been interesting observing your RE journey. I thought it would take you longer to realize the value of high cost markets once you left, but you came around quickly.

    I don’t think replacing W2 income will be easy with passive investing on the coasts, but efficient equity build is very achievable. You can always refi to access the equity, so it’s less liquid…but still accessible.


     Yes and when it is accessible you can buy more Cash flowing real estate in an expensive market. 

  • Real Estate Agent · Chandler, AZ · Member since 2022 · 216 posts · 156 votes
    3y
    Quote from @Eric Fernwood:

    Excellent comments on this thread. I decided to add my 2¢’s.

    Return Calculation Limitations

    Return calculations only predict how a property is likely to perform on day one under ideal conditions. Return calculations tell you nothing about the future. Because you will hold a property for many years, what happens after the first day is far more important than what happens on day one.

    Financial Independence

    In order to have financial independence you need a income replacement equal to your current income that also meets three requirements:

    • Inflation compensating: Rental income keeps pace with inflation, enabling you to pay inflated prices to maintain your standard of living.
    • Persistent income: Your income will last so you will not run out of money.
    • Reliable income: Your income continues even in difficult economic times.

    Unless rents keep pace with inflation, your time off the daily worker treadmill will be short. This is because inflation will continue to increase prices, and you will not have the additional dollars you need. Regardless of how many “Property A’s” you own, your buying power will decrease each month, and you will be forced back onto the treadmill of daily work.

    Rent Follows Prices

    Property prices are driven by supply and demand.

    • If there are more sellers than buyers, prices will fall.
    • If there are more buyers than sellers, prices will rise.

    Rental rates are driven by property prices.

    • If prices rise, fewer people can afford to buy and will be forced to rent. Demand for rental properties increases as will rents.
    • If prices fall, more people will be able to buy so fewer people will rent. Demand for rental properties decreases as will rents.

    In short, where prices go, rents follow. However, rents typically take 2 to 5 years to catch up with changes in property prices. This lag is primarily due to leases, which are usually for one year or longer.

    What Drives Demand?

    Population change is what drives housing demand.

    In cities where the population is increasing, the demand for housing exceeds the current supply. This causes prices to rise until a balance is reached between the number of sellers and the number of people who can afford to buy.

    In cities where the population is static or declining, there are more sellers than buyers. This results in a decrease or stagnation of property prices. This trend continues until there is a balance between sellers and buyers. Low property prices are the result of years of low demand for housing. In other words, housing prices have not kept pace with inflation, resulting in lower property prices when compared to cities with increasing populations. Rents follow property prices, so if prices have not kept pace with inflation, neither will rents. If you buy in such a location, rent increases will not keep pace with inflation, and your buying power will continue to decline over time. No matter how many low-cost properties you own, your days of financial freedom are limited by how long you can continuously decrease your living costs.

    If you purchase property in a city with higher demand, prices will be higher, but rent increases are likely to keep pace with inflation. If they do, you will achieve permanent financial freedom.

    Your financial independence is tied to the city's ability to quickly grow its economy, create jobs, and increase its population. Do you want to risk your financial independence by betting that cities like Detroit, Cleveland, and many others with declining populations will somehow turn around and become economic powerhouses?

    Do You Make the Most Money With Cash Flow or Appreciation?

    An example will explain far better than text.

    Suppose you have two properties. Property A has a 7% appreciation rate with no cash flow. Property B has a 7% cash flow but no appreciation. To keep the example simple, I ignored all other variables except for personal income taxes, which I assumed to be 30%.


    Why Low-Cost Properties Are the Most Expensive

    To replace your current income, you will likely need to acquire multiple properties. The total amount of capital required to acquire multiple properties depends on the city's appreciation rate. In the following examples, I will assume you need 20 properties to replace your current income. I will also assume the downpayment is 25% of the purchase price.

    In a low-priced location, I will assume each property costs $200,000. To keep things simple, I will only consider the capital needed for down payments and ignore all the other costs like renovation, closing costs, etc., and no inflation.

    Total capital from savings required for 20 down payments: 20 x $200,000 x 25% = $1,000,000 in after-tax dollars. The fact that all capital will come from after-tax dollars means that if your marginal tax rate is 35%, you will need to earn (gross) 1,428,571 to have $1,000,000 after taxes. $1.4M will take a lot of years to accumulate. And, if there is inflation you will need a lot more capital.

    Higher price location - Suppose you purchased in a high appreciation market and each property costs $400,000. In a high-appreciation location, you use cash-out refinance when there is sufficient equity for the down payment on the next property. In this case, the total capital required for down payments will be:

    First property capital requirement: $400,000 x 25% = $100,000

    Each additional property is purchased with accumulated equity from the previous properties. This is how many of our clients grew their portfolios. The process is illustrated below.

    In summary, if you buy in low-cost locations, every investment dollar must come from your after-tax savings. If you buy in a high-appreciation location, even though prices are higher, you will need significantly less capital because the majority of the capital required can be obtained from cash-out refinance.

    Summary

    Low-cost locations may seem alluring initially, but it's important to look beyond the first-day returns and consider the long-term performance of the property over the next 20 to 40 years.


     This chart summarizes nicely what I've seen in my own journey. 

  • Real Estate Agent · Chandler, AZ · Member since 2022 · 216 posts · 156 votes
    3y
    Quote from @David M.:

    @Becca F.

    You basically have a "good problem" to have.  It really depends on how conservative you want to be.  realize that if you have a mortgage at 7% interest, since you able to deduct it your effective cost is reduced by the tax savings.  That makes it easily less than 5%.  Since, currently its about "even"

    I think which is "more beneficial" is more attributable to your investment strategy and risk tolerance.  The "power of leverage" would suggest to keep the mortgages in place, but that is a long term strategy.  However, if you want to generate cash flow sooner than later, then paying them down is a good idea.  The trade-off is the "leverage gain."

    Not sure what is your concern with your chidlren inheriting the properties with mortages.  The rents should still be there to cover the mortgage payment, right?  They will still become landlords...  If you are trying to pass along more "wealth," however, that is again dependent on how you determine it.  

    I hope that helps.  Good luck.


     No concern with them inheriting mortgage, I just don't want them to by as heavily leveraged as I was myself when I first began :) 

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