ok, i live here in vegas. i have two homes, one as a primary residence and one as a rental. i am breaking even on the rental, which is fine because i am 35 and i plan on using it as retirement tool. i am looking to purchase another home this fall and i cant make any sense of the vegas real estate markert, nor the numbers.
i hope this link can come up.
http://www.lvrj.com/business/9731292.html
my questions are...
-why has the median home price gone up when everyone says the market is tanking.
-why is there over 24,000 homes & a 15 month supply of homes on the market here in vegas, yet prices keep modestly climbing?
-does this defy the supply/demand theory?
any feedback would be greatly appreciated.
vegas.
The median price was up slightly one month, but was down 3.9% from the same month last year. A one month uptick doesn't mean prices aren't heading down.
According to the link you provided, prices are declining, not climbing.
Mike
1. Look up the definition of median. You will see that it represents something specific. If the mix of houses sold changes then the medium can rise or fall even if the market average goes the other way. Average and median are not the same.
Also understand that there are likely a number of factors you should be considering.
A large positive for LV is the fact that the population keeps growing. There is also high churn (many folks who move there pull out after a few years as they do not like it). There are opportunities in any community when you understand the demographic trends and other physical constraints (infrastructure, water, commute times, etc).
2. You are seriously cash flow negative given the way you describe being at break even.
Focus on doing better deals if you want to grow the portfolio. More alligators will only mean you are closer to death if you lose your job, etc.
As the LV market is not really all that healthy and there is high turnover there will be deals to be done. Even if it is just a gambler who's luck has run out. You only need one great deal a year if you want to fund a rich retirement. Focus on finding the diamond in the rough.
Then when you have a system that works (and only then) you can ramp it up and do more deals so retirement comes a lot earlier if you choose to go that route.
John Corey
-why has the median home price gone up when everyone says the market is tanking.
-why is there over 24,000 homes & a 15 month supply of homes on the market here in vegas, yet prices keep modestly climbing?
-does this defy the supply/demand theory?
any feedback would be greatly appreciated.
vegas.
National reports are just that, national. Every market has it’s own unique characteristics yet is still affected by national trends. There are some factors that have kept the Las Vegas market from tanking as you might expect.
1) Job Growth: Employment is very strong here. Just about anyone who actually wants to work can find a job. It may not be THE job they want but they can find a job.
2) New Residents: There are in excess of 6,000 people moving here each month. These people need to live somewhere.
3) Lack of Land: There are fewer and fewer large tracts of land that can be built on. Las Vegas is in a valley and building has extended to all ends of it. The Federal Government has restricted a lot of land sales by the BLM by creating disposal boundaries and builders cannot find the large tracts for master planned communities. Estimates have the available land supply running out in about 7 years based on current trends.
4) While the supply is high there are still many transactions being closed. While these numbers are not as high as in the boom time, they are still much higher than they were pre-boom.
Negative Factors:
1) Record number of homes on the market.
2) #1 Foreclosure market in the country.
3) Over 40% of homes listed for sale are vacant.
The other thing that is happening is that rents are rising significantly. At some point a qualified renter will determine that he is better off buying than renting. This will help reduce the supply which now has the days on market figure very high.
Many of the foreclosures and vacant listings are homes that were purchased by wanna-be investors who refinanced their existing homes to purchase properties in order to cash in on the boom. Many realtors were touting negative cash flow as acceptable because you would make it up through appreciation. Many of these investors have lost these homes to foreclosure because they couldn’t support the negative cash flow. These novice investors have now left the market with their tail between their legs.
The long-term out look for Las Vegas is extremely bright. The supply will eventually be absorbed and the market will eventually return to normal. In the meantime I would hold what I have and look for opportunities to buy more. This certainly isn’t the time to sell.
8)
thank you so much Rehab702,
i was thinking about many of the points you made, it just makes sense. vegas is such a unique market. there is really no other city to compare vegas to in terms of characteristics.
in my humble opinion, many so called experts do not take the tip/gratuity income into account. i work in the service industry myself and know plenty of tip earners that earn well over a six figure income by working valet, bartending, or wating tables.. but these numbers don't show up on the tax returns. the tip earner job seems to be the antithesis of a white collar job, where as every part of income is tracked and reported. these tip earner jobs play a part in the economic foundation of vegas.
maybe it is a mistake to group vegas into the 'Southwest' cities like Phoenix, scottsdale, and some southern california area's?
vegas
Hi I just got here. Somebody posted a link on Craig's List. What a wonderful forum, and what a great question.
I agree with what was said above about the Las Vegas market. I just have a few thoughts to add.
It is inevitable that the market will turn positive at some point, but it is going to be very difficult to see the point of inflection until we are already past it. It may be happening now, or it could happen in a year or two. It's difficult to gauge the competing pressures.
On the one hand we have the negatives listed above, the foreclosures, the empty houses, the barriers to entry for 1st-time homeowners, and the shrinking mortgage market.
On the other side, we have the booming economy, the big projects on the strip, population growth, decreasing supply of land, and most important, the jobs.
So in response to your question... why is the median price of homes not dropping? My answer is, why should it? Only someone who is severly distressed is going to sell at a discount in Las Vegas, and there are plenty of forward-thinking investors competing for those severly distressed sellers. Everybody else is just holding on, hoping to wait out this little dip. The competing pressures appear to be in balance right now, tipping the market slightly towards the negative, but will inevitably go positive. The time to shop for bargains is now.
Vegas Gal,
There are three stages in a real estate downturn:
1) Housing inventory increases (days on market increases) - this is where Las Vegas is now. During this stage, homeowners don't want to believe that prices will drop and try to wait it out.
2) Prices drop as people finally realize that the market isn't turning around anytime soon. Although this stage is painful for sellers, this is needed to start lowering the inventory levels.
3) Recovery - as the existing inventory is used up, the market will finally begin to recover. However, historically it takes 8-10 years for inflation adjusted prices to reach their previous highs.
While I agree with you that we won't recognize the bottom until after it has occurred, we certainly are not there yet - not even close.
Mike
I can't say I agree with you, Mike. Those are the conditions for a typical downturn and recovery. Las Vegas is anything but typical. We have $30 billion in construction happening on the South Strip right now. That's a big number. That has got to enter into the equation somewhere. I don't know any other city that is experience a cash influx of that magnitude, excepts perhaps Macao.
Mike,
While there is some logic to the cycles the details are not accurate for all markets all of the time.
Some markets have downturns which really means prices stop going up but they do not really fall.
There are markets where prices fall but the recovery is closer to 3 years rather than the 8-10 you are expecting in your cycles.
To all:
DYOR - Do Your Own Research for you market. The cycles Mike talks about are real in many cases but not exactly in the same way as the next market implies.
There are three stages in a real estate downturn:
1) Housing inventory increases (days on market increases) - this is where Las Vegas is now. During this stage, homeowners don't want to believe that prices will drop and try to wait it out.
2) Prices drop as people finally realize that the market isn't turning around anytime soon. Although this stage is painful for sellers, this is needed to start lowering the inventory levels.
3) Recovery - as the existing inventory is used up, the market will finally begin to recover. However, historically it takes 8-10 years for inflation adjusted prices to reach their previous highs.
While I agree with you that we won't recognize the bottom until after it has occurred, we certainly are not there yet - not even close.
Mike
I see the point you are making about tip income.
When it does not show up on the tax returns it also does not show up as verifiable income on the loan applications. Hence people can not qualify for loans where self-certification is no longer the easy option.
More seller financing is one solution. More renters is another option.
John Corey
MikeOH has a great grasp on real estate investing and national trends but I would disagree with him in that I believe we are at the early part of stage 2. Prices have been coming down slightly and I believe that trend will accelerate as we head into the later part of the year. The market here is not as dead as the numbers might have you believe. There is still a lot of buying and selling going on but it is nowhere near the feeding frenzy that we experienced in the past when the city was investor crazy. The sales pace is pretty much at the pre-boom level, which is healthy in the long-term. As prices soften further the existing supply will be absorbed. The key to identifying the trend change will be the supply numbers. An economy is based on supply & demand, when the supply dries up prices will start rising again.
Historical numbers and national trends can tell you as lot. However, each market has it’s own characteristics and you need to look at underlying factors to see if a market will have trends that are better or worse than the average. Based on current trends Las Vegas should be to the shorter side of the historical average. As long as the job growth is steady and we still have a great number of people moving here the supply will be absorbed faster than it might be otherwise. The people who move here have to live somewhere, they will either buy or rent. If they buy the supply gets absorbed, if they rent the rents will rise (as is happening now) and it will eventually be cheaper to own than to rent. This will not happen overnight but it will probably happen sooner than the historical average might suggest. My opinion is that we will see the trend start changing in the next 2-3 years with a return to a normal market in about 5 years. That’s just my opinion and we know how opinions are.
8)
VegasGirl, I have trouble understanding the words "atrocious and predatory". You sound like you see yourself as a victim.
I have taken out a dozen loans in Las Vegas over the past 4 years, from various lenders including Republic Mortgage, Silver State Mortgage (now defunct), Washington Mutual, Bank of America, and Countrywide. In every case, the loan officer explained to me carefully what the terms of the loan were. Not only that, when I closed escrow at the title company, the escrow officer went over every page I signed and explained all the terms to me. This happened every single time, without fail.
How can you, after the fact, say your loan is atrocious and predatory? Did you not know what you were signing? How could you not know? Please explain this to me.
Wow, vegas gal, good for you that you got the truth. However, just becasue you did, doesnt mean everyone does. I asked the proper questions, and i was lied to. Period. My real estate agent led me astray. I dont do real estate or mortgages. If I knew the business, as apparently you do, I would of done the damn loan myslef. However I work in a different field and trusted the supposed experts. But hey, Vegas Gal, thanks for the judgement. Are you always this much better than everyone else?
You asked the proper questions... but you were lied to.
I have trouble believing that. Escrow officers in Las Vegas do not lie to buyers during document signings. They just don't. Why would they?
You signed the forms. The terms of the loan were in the forms you signed. The escrow officer explained each form to you and witnessed your signature on each one.
This isn't a matter of being superior. This goes to the heart of the question, do the victims deserve a bail-out? Are they, in fact, victims?
Having gone through this so many times, I just don't see how you, or any other buyer in Las Vegas, can claim to be uninformed. You had to know what you were signing. How could you not?
First of all, you weren't there--there were unusual circumstances during my signing with an escrow officer, and quite frankly I dont need to explain them to you, your heiness. There are a ton of people like me much to your apparent dismay. So do me a favor and take your judgements and expectations, and your "better than everyone else" attitude and shove it. It must be overwhelming to be so damn perfect, but not everyone else is. Congrats, I wish i was you--or maybe I dont.
Thank you for your reply. Obviously we have gotten off topic. We should start another thread about remedies for victims of "atrocious and predatory" loans.
Maybe if you softened your rhetoric and actually answered the question, you'd get more sympathy. As it is, the more contact I have with people who claim to be victims of bad mortgages, the less I am inclined to support any kind of bail-out.
If your only defense is a bad attitude, then I'd rather wait until your house goes to auction and buy it from the bank.
Maybe if you softened your rhetoric and actually answered the question, you'd get more sympathy. As it is, the more contact I have with people who claim to be victims of bad mortgages, the less I am inclined to support any kind of bail-out.
If your only defense is a bad attitude, then I'd rather wait until your house goes to auction and buy it from the bank.
Excuse me, but if you read your posts to me, you would see, I hope anyways, that you are accusing of me of lying, as opposed to the Mortgage and real Estate agent lying. You keep saying you dont believe that I didnt know. You keep saying that you find it hard to believe it happened becasue it never happened to you.
It happened to me. I was lied to. period. You werent there, so you dont know. I dont appreciate you accusing me of lying and assuming you do know my situation. You dont. I'm telling you what happened, I would appreciate if for one moment you would just believe what I am saying.
I own 2 homes. I am a good person with good credit who trusted the wrong people, and there are alot of us out there. this problem with foreclosures is happening, to many people--people like me who dont understand the mortgage business. Unsuspecting consumers who have been preyed on by shady, take the money and run lenders. I didnt invent the words "predatory lending" . I'm not the first, and Im not the last. Your refusal to believe that this is actually happening is ignorant.
My closing was also a shambles, problems here, problems there, everyone waas in a hurry--was everything explained propoerly? No. I was in a hurry due to the fact that all the paper work and whatnot was late--wrong--and I had to go earn my living. THINGS WERE NOT EXPLAINED PROPERLY BECAUSE IT WAS RUSHED.
You find it hard to beleive that I didnt know the deal---Well, I asked what it was going to cost me. I was told a couple of hundred dollars a month. Well, its more like $1300 a month. I was told a few thousand year. Well its more like 17k a year. I asked if I could re-fi when the arm came--I was told yes. But the way the deal is as it turns out, there is no way in hell I can refi. Why in the world would I, or anyone else, agree to that deal? I was LIED to. period. I trusted them. I shouldnt of, obvioulsy, but there you have it. So, your right, I didnt know the deal.
Did I learn form this? Absolutley. Apparently I need to learn this business to protect myself. So, am I angry that your posts semed mor elike attacks on my character? Yes. I am about to lose my home and my credit standing becasue I trusted the wrong people and then I have you questioning my sitaution as if I'm making it up or something. So excuse my BAD attitude, but I'm a little sensitive right now. You would be too if you were in my shoes.
This is a ridiculous exchange. Granted some people got themselves into bad situations because they never did their work, but it sounds like everthing was done properly here and someone got screwed. There is no reason to be nasty, Vegas Gal. Please discontinue your nasty rhetoric to fellow members.
I know many people, all of whom are quite well versed in the real estate biz who have been screwed in one way or another by sheisty lenders. It happens. Because it didn't happen to you doesn't mean it couldn't have happened to others.
I hope this discussion heads back into the direction it was initially intended.
Thanks for the understanding.