Hold or Sell help (Real Decision)

[Joshua Cook]

Looking for outside opinions on a hold vs. sell decision. Here's the full picture:

The property:

Single-family, 3bd/2ba, ~1,650 sqft, built 2021, Hernando County, FL

Purchased 2021 for ~$192-195k, 20% down.

Current estimated value: $260-280k (getting an actual listing estimate soon)

The problem:

Rent has been flat at $1,745 for 5 years. Feels like a hard local ceiling, not particularly a management issue (though I think they could do better in reducing vacancy by pre-listing the home and searching for tenants before it goes vacant/the prior lease is over). And while rent is stagnating, FL tax and insurance is rising.

Turnover has been almost every year (4 of the last 5 years). Vacancy + placement fee runs ~2 months' rent each time.

No obvious value-add lever. Since it's a newer build, there's nothing to renovate that would meaningfully move rent.

The longer I hold, the closer I march towards those more costly capex issues like more flooring replacements, AC, water heater, etc. And the further away I march from the post 2020 appreciation surge and subsequent settling.

The numbers (return on current equity, not original investment):

Cash flow:

Gross rent: $1,745/mo ($20,940/yr)

After a ~7% PM fee: $1,645/mo ($19,740/yr)

Mortgage (PITI): $1,128/mo ($13,536/yr) — $300 principal / $408 interest / ~$420 escrow

Raw cash flow before turnover/capex: $517/mo ($6,204/yr)

Turnover cost:

~2 months' rent per turnover (vacancy + placement fee) ≈ $3,246. I put this into a weighted average since I've had turnover the last 4/5 years: $2,597/yr

Capex reserve of 8-10% of gross rent: ~$1,900/yr

Net annual cash flow: $6,204 − $2,597 − $1,900 ≈ $1,707/yr

Principal paydown: $300/mo = $3,600/yr

Total annual return: $1,707 + $3,600 = ~$5,300/yr

Equity: $120,000-140,000 (loan balance $140k @ 3.5%, est. sale $260-280k)

ROE: ~$5,300 ÷ $130k ≈ 4.1% (range 3.8-4.4%)

If I self-managed and shopped for better insurance, I could potentially bump this up to a 5.3-5.9% ROE.

Other factors:

I have an old business judgment (~$105k, uncollectible for 5 years) I could potentially claim as a bad debt loss the same year I sell, offsetting most of the capital gains tax, pending my CPA confirming it's independently triggerable this year.

What I'm asking you all for help with:

Does a ~4-5.5% ROE with rent-capped upside sound like "sell" to you, or am I missing an angle in favor of holding? Should I be using a different metric to measure it? I've felt I should always be asking "how well is my current money performing," and ROE seems like a good metric for that. And yet that actual ROE number can fluctuate wildly if I don't have turnover or all my appliances hold up in a given year (a miracle!), making the investment performance swing wildly in a given direction.

Has anyone dealt with a similar rent-ceiling situation in a newer-build FL submarket? Did it ever break?

I know some of this is emotional rather than rational, but since cash-flowing FL properties are hard to find right now, part of me feels like I'd be giving up a "good find," even though the actual 5-year performance doesn't support that feeling. There's also a generational piece: I've always wanted to be a buy-and-hold guy, and it's hard not to think about what I'm passing up for my kids by selling, like I'm taking away a generational asset/opportunity from them. But when the return is barely ahead of a savings account (in part to how well it's managed) and yet comes with real landlord headaches on top, I'm having trouble justifying holding on emotion alone.

Maybe I'm missing something; I'm open to pushback. A tenant just moved out, completely trashing the carpet and walls, so I've been in a mind tunnel going back and forth between holding/selling, something that's been on my mind for a bit.

Thanks!

[Richard F.]

Annual turnovers of a 3 BR is highly unusual, even in "bad" neighborhoods. A two month cost for each is ridiculous. Add your statement about the most recent move out condition, seems obvious your PM is not properly marketing and/or properly screening applicants.