OK-mathematicians, where are you??

OK-mathematicians, where are you??

Real Estate Investor · the villages, FL · Member since 2008 · 5k+ posts · 3k+ votes

A reply on another thread made me wonder about something. Mikeoh mentioned fannie mae is showing 5% appreciation annually over the past 50 years on average. The Rule Of 72 says that to find out how long it takes to double your money, divide the % rate(5) into 72. Your money would double in 14.4 years.
Here is my question. At the same rate, what would be my value of property in 30 years when loan is paid off, with no extra principal payments?
If you put the standard 20% down as an investor, what would be your "annual " rate of return for the 30 years on the 20% down ? Much more than the 5% we've chatted about above!!
When someone posts the calculations, it will help the newbies to understand why we love this stuff. Leverage is truly an amazing thing, especially for those young enuff to enjoy the 30 year ride.
Now, what will your estate be worth if you buy one a year , each year for the 30 years??? Probably too difficult to calculate, but it might be enuff to stay ahead of the changes current administration is making... Someone, do the math for us. Thanks. Rich.

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Rental Property Investor · Mercer Island, WA · Member since 2008 · 22k+ posts · 14k+ votes
17y

Not sure I buy the 5% annual appreciation number, if you factor out the recent bubble, but we'll go with it. Inflation over that period has averaged 4.07%.

After 30 years of averaging 5% appreciation per year, a property will be worth 4.32 times its initial price, in nominal terms. However, during that time, assuming 4.07% inflation, inflation has made overall prices 3.31 times what they were at the start of the time. So, in real terms (real means inflation adjusted, that's, what you can buy with the money), the property is worth only 1.3 times its initial value.

The calculation is down as a power function in Excel: Power (1+rate, term) where rate is the appreciation rate (5%) and term is the number of years (30).

There's not quite enough information to fully answer you second question, so I'll make a few assumptions. Say you purchase a house for $100K with a 30 year loan at 6%. You put down 20%. Your payment is $599.55. After 30 years, in nominal terms (i.e., the price you would sell it for in current dollars) would be $432,194. The total of your payments would be $215,838. So, in nominal terms, you would have just about doubled your money. To apply the rule of 72, you've doubled you cash in 30 years, so your return was 72/30=2.4%. Pretty crummy.

Another way to consider this is to compare it to putting the money in CDs. I don't have historical CD rates, so lets back into the equivalent rate. Say instead of buying the house you used the $599.55 to buy one CD a month for 30 years. What rate would you need to get to end up with the $432K? 4.275%.

Now, of course, with a property you don't just pay. You have rent coming in. My rule of thumb is I assume 40% for expenses because I manage them myself, and I'm not looking for monthly cash flow. So, if I could rent this house for $1000 with this payment, it would meet my bare minimum criteria. I have an asset that's (at least in nominal terms) increasing in value and I'm not out of pocket anything.

If I bought one house a year at $100,000, put nothing down, got a loan as above, and rented it for $1000 a month, then after 30 years I'd have total equity of $5.1 million. The properties themselves would be worth a total of $7 million, but I'd have $1.9 million in debt.

Note that most of the value is in the earliest purchases. If I just bought one a year for 10 years, then waited for 20 more years, I'd have a worth of $3.2 million and only $270K in debt.

Now that's all in nominal terms, and if you want real comparison, you have to convert to real terms. If you adjust for inflation, the one house a year for 30 years gives you the equivalent of $1.6M in todays dollars, and the one for 10 years and wait 20 gives you just under $1M in todays dollars.

Again, I don't buy that 5% is the right number, so what if we use the same 4.07% for both inflation and appreciation. In nominal terms I end up with $4.0 M in the 30 house scenario and $2.5M in the 10 house scenario. In real terms, I have $1.2M with 30 houses and $760K with 10 houses.

Either of those would make for a decent retirement. In fact, I'd have to say that's pretty much my plan.

See this reply in the discussion

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  • Investor · Willow Spring, NC · Member since 2009 · 5k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    17y

    David, I appreciate your contribution.

    Example numbers in quotes. In Raleigh we had quite a run in 2003 where we would buy a "lightly worn" property ($63K), fix it up to retail condition to minimize maintenance ($14K), rent it ($900/month), then refinance it with a new mortgage ($77K.) In the end, we have $0 in, 30% equity, and cash flow of $250/month that is tax deferred after depreciation. The company still has most of its 2002-2004 property, which is performing without any appreciation (other than the "forced appreciation".) Jay DeCima would be happy.

    Not sure how the numbers and ratios add up... and I'm not sure I care that much. Our LLC members are happy. Lots of long-term benefits from my field service contribution to the LLC;)

  • Real Estate Investor · the villages, FL · Member since 2008 · 5k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    17y

    Chris,
    I wanted to use an example that had been owned long enuff to have the hyper, avg and near no appreciation. There are a lot of short term stories like yours, but the longer the term, the more credibility it would have, imo. Rich.

  • Real Estate Investor · Bergen County, NJ · Member since 2008 · 390 posts · 72 votes
    17y

    Rich I have recently read the following book by David Schumacher, have you ever hearf of him.
    You and him seem to have similar thoughts on acquiring wealth and it was an good book to read. There are difference of course but the main point I think is to look at real estate as along term hold. I'd recommend it.

    Buy and Hold : 7 Steps to a Real Estate Fortune

    In this book his 7 step approach includes:
    1. Finding the Location
    2. Buy
    3. Long-term Financing
    4. Hold for the long term
    5. Appreciation
    6. Sell
    7. Attain Your Fortune

  • Will BarnardPro Member
    Moderator
    Developer · Santa Clarita, CA · Member since 2008 · 15k+ posts · 10k+ votes
    17y
    Originally posted by MikeOH:
    The math as it appears today may be quite different tomorrow. This has happened to many businesses in the past.
    Not sure I agree. The RE investment business has been around for centuries and while there are always changes, I don't see any evidence that this business could become "non-desirable" to the point it was not profitable. Regardless of politics, investors who are expereinced and creative will always be one step ahead of the pack and the government.
    As to the math, it does not change at all. Math is math and larger costs on items can be offset by increases to income, increases to deductions, etc.
  • Real Estate Investor · the villages, FL · Member since 2008 · 5k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    17y

    Robert Mack-
    Don't know the book. I agree with 6 of the 7 points. The one we disagree is HUGE. Whey ever sell and LOSE so much??? Just keep property and refi. All the proceeds are tax free, and almost what you'd net compared to selling, paying costs, commissions etc.. You might exchange the property on a 1031 to increase your basis, but selling in most cases would hurt the wealth you worked so hard to create. Rich.

  • Real Estate Investor · Bergen County, NJ · Member since 2008 · 390 posts · 72 votes
    17y

    I was in a hurry when I posted, I had a strong feeling that was the difference in the thinking. If it is generating cashflow then why sell, unless you 1031 it into another investment possibly...
    Would also love to read your book sometime.

  • Real Estate Investor · Fenton, MI · Member since 2008 · 946 posts · 153 votes
    17y
    Originally posted by Joshua Dorkin:
    Guys - lets keep discussions of Obama in the political threads, please.

    The current political climate in which we must do business is so pervasive I think it is unwise if not impossible to keep political considerations out of future considerations.

  • Investor · the desert !, CA · Member since 2008 · 78 posts · 9 votes
    17y

    hello all i find this thread very interesting ,,, i have a very long term example for you my grandfather bought a 4plex in sanclemente Ca in 1971 the building was only a few years old at the time for $75,000 he passed away 2 years ago and the estate values the building today at 1.2 million

    i dont know what the rents were in 71 but im guessing about 125 a month at the time
    i lived in the building from 1989 to 1999 and paid avrage of 700 a month and that was under market
    so 700x 12= $8400 x 10 years = $84000 during the 10 year period i stayed there i bought the building for him ! in one UNIT !

    today rents in the building are $1450 a month x 4
    if that does not get you excited about realestate i dont know what will :mrgreen:

  • Rental Property Investor · Mercer Island, WA · Member since 2008 · 22k+ posts · 14k+ votes
    17y

    That's really just the power of compound interest. In that example, the rate of appreciation is 7.57%. The S&P 500 appreciated 6.22% and inflation averaged 4.50% over that same period. So, this particular building outpaced both.

    OTOH, if he bought this with a 7.5% loan (about the going residential rate in 1971), and 20% down, he actually paid a total of $166K with the total of payments and down payment. Assuming he took the full 30 years to pay it off, the IRR is still 7.61%.

    The current rents of $1450 is equal to $272 in 1971 dollars. The $1.2M current value is equal to $225K in 1971 dollars.

    So, yes, I think real estate is a good investment. But much of these results simply come from the long time period. Any investment over a long time period can show good results. If you looked at those stock returns in March 2000 or sometime last year they would have far outpaced this building. When you account for inflation, which you must over these long time periods, those big numbers are not nearly so impressive.

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