STR Projection Question

[Matt Payne]

Here is a scenario and questioning how I may project nightly rate and occupancy:

I'm going to round up numbers to make it easy.

House for sale that is 3/2 and is essentially identical to a local (1 mile away) high performing STR, same rooms, baths and beds and yard etc.

The high performing STR has over 200 reviews and is 4.85 in AIRBNB.

It is charging an average of $200 a night with dynamic pricing and looks like it is booked at about 80% occupancy.

Assuming I buy the new place, fix it up and outfit it the same as the local STR, what % could I expect just starting out relative to an established STR in the same market (neighborhood)?

I understand perhaps charging less to drive traffic, especially initially and I of course would not expect same occupancy levels.

But what % of nightly rev and occupancy should I plug into the pro-forma to start the process?

Or broad question is how does the new STR home flow in vs the existing proven one in the same locale?

And just assume the market can handle another one.

Thanks-

[Leslie Anne Morris]

Depending where you are looking you could get a property manager to assist with projections, but you can also use AirDNA. There is also a new tool called STR Insights. If you are just listing on Airbnb it usually takes some time to climb rate wise, especially considering you already know there are well established STR near you.