"No bookings for February"
Collin HaysBusiness Member
Property Manager · Gatlinburg, TN · Member since 2020 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes"No bookings for February"
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Ryan MoyerBusiness Member
Property Manager · Orlando Kissimmee Davenport Salt Lake City, Park City · Member since 2019 · 996 posts · 1k+ votesLet's not just blame it all on the newbies. There were plenty of people with a microphone (even well seasoned experts here on this forum) that got caught up in the excitement of 2021 and were telling newbies that it was the new norm.
ETA: And a lot of realtors these past few years were just as bad as the lenders in 2008.
Cosmic Vacations4.9174 Reviews
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- Investor · Scottsdale Austin Tuktoyaktuk · Member since 2021 · 4k+ posts · 4k+ votes3yPrice isn't always the answer. I've seen plenty of instances when people bought cars not worth their price, but the marketing worked and the car sold.
Quote from @Collin Hays:
"I have no bookings for February" (biggerpockets.com)
Looking forward to thoughts on this!
Sometimes when I have a slow period selling one of my flips, I actually raise the price, it enters into a different search level and the property sells. Sometimes the photos or descriptions need to be changed or updated. That's why photographers and script writers are successful.
I saw a post where the guy stated he had no bookings and provided a link. Half of the first photos were of prints on the bedroom walls that had fancy sayings but didn't show the room or the bed. Not sure why he thought showing marginal art work would get him a listing.
There was one indicating how close he was to 3 major freeways. Doesn't sound peaceful or restful to me. Convenient perhaps, but I have no idea why that was so important to him over the amenities of the property.
Some people believe they are the only grocery store in a town of hundreds of grocery stores. They are Not built for competition and always got an award in school for showing up, which now confuses them as to why they can't succeed when they don't get bookings.
Life is hard, STR marketing is harder. - 3yJohn UnderwoodPro MemberInvestor · Greer, SC · Member since 2014 · 13k+ posts · 17k+ votes
January and February are typically very slow. We have about $7,000 worth of bookings in February so far at the PF cabin but have an 8k mortgage.
I expect to be negative in January and February. We have strong bookings April through September and December so far.
- Cambridge, MA · Member since 2015 · 652 posts · 736 votes3y
I agree with the article. 2020 & 2021 were unusual years because a lot of people were able to work remotely and wanted to escape urban areas. That negatively impacted my urban STRs and boosted the STRs in non-urban vacation destinations.
Most of those remote workers have returned to the office at least part of the time. Also, travelers who avoided urban destinations in 2020 & 2021 have built up cravings to visit those destination cities, like Boston, again.
To add to the non-urban STR problem, there have been tons of investors who have jumped into the market in the last few years. Since a lot of urban markets have implemented strict regulations within the last few years, most of this investors purchased their STRs in non-urban markets, increasing competition, decreasing occupancy rates and driving nightly rates down in those markets, just as they had done in urban markets before they were regulated.
Anyone who purchased a non-urban STR based on 2020 & 2021 STR occupancy & nightly rates are facing a harsh reality today.
- Investor · Member since 2022 · 1k+ posts · 754 votes3y
You have to start booking for these months in October
Article is spot on. We are absolutely back to the norm in that market, yet with differences from 2019. But in addition to being back to normal, what I am seeing is algorithm changes from the OTAs also having an impact as well. It seems they are giving preference to newer listings, over older listings regardless of reviews. I have two very similar pool cabins, similar in size and amenities. One of them I have had for a few years and I have tons of 5 star reviews. The other one I also have 5 star reviews on, but not nearly as many since it just went live mid 2022. The cabin with many more 5 star reviews is even in a better location. By all manner of thinking on how things should be working, the cabin with the most 5 star reviews out of the two similar cabins should be ahead of the newer cabin with lesser reviews in the searches, but that is not the case. The new cabin for 2023 is outpacing the other cabin 2 to 1 on bookings right now. As an anecdote, the new cabin has a 75% occupancy rate so far for February and will probably increase before the month is over. All my other cabins are back to the 2019 levels for February. Things just don't make sense. But for whatever reason, both OTA are favoring my new cabin over the my other cabins with far more 5 star reviews.
I have done some incognito searches as well and I have seen new cabins popping up on the OTAs ahead of my other properties and the ratings on some of these cabins ahead of mine are as low 3.x on their average reviews. I saw this same thing happen back in September of last year, my others cabins just stopped popping up near the top of the searches like they always have been, but the new cabin was getting slammed. Although my research is not scientific I have talked with enough cabin owners about this that I do believe my theory of what is happening is happening, but who really knows what goes on inside their algorithms. Seeing this kind of activity is what has finally pushed me into the direct booking phase.
The other thing I am seeing is massive price drops in larger cabins, these I am assuming are from the plethora of folks who bought super high last year and are not getting the bookings they think they should be getting and are freaking out and slashing prices down super low to try to cover as much as their mortgage as they can it seems. But they will soon learn, when you go too low, you bring in problems. That will be unsustainable for those folks. This too I think is having an overall effect on the PF/Gatlinburg market.
- 3yRyan MoyerBusiness MemberProperty Manager · Orlando Kissimmee Davenport Salt Lake City, Park City · Member since 2019 · 996 posts · 1k+ votes
Let's not just blame it all on the newbies. There were plenty of people with a microphone (even well seasoned experts here on this forum) that got caught up in the excitement of 2021 and were telling newbies that it was the new norm.
ETA: And a lot of realtors these past few years were just as bad as the lenders in 2008.
Cosmic Vacations4.9174 Reviews - Real Estate Agent · Smoky Mountains, TN · Member since 2022 · 1k+ posts · 984 votes3y
Ouch - I am seeing this happening a lot and its pretty sad. Moral of the story get a team that is knowledgeable and also don't buy something because it is cheap (ie the house instead of the cabin). Well written!
- 3yMichael BaumPro MemberOlympia, WA · Member since 2016 · 8k+ posts · 7k+ votes
We normally get nothing in the winter after Christmas so we are right on target. Our first bookings arrive in April. That is normal for us.
- Member since 2022 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes3yI think the 2 sentences above might've been the same thread/listing. House was in AZ and had an anchor & ship wheel on the first page .. .. Seriously?!I saw a post where the guy stated he had no bookings and provided a link. Half of the first photos were of prints on the bedroom walls that had fancy sayings but didn't show the room or the bed. Not sure why he thought showing marginal art work would get him a listing.
There was one indicating how close he was to 3 major freeways. Doesn't sound peaceful or restful to me. Convenient perhaps, but I have no idea why that was so important to him over the amenities of the property.
Those kinds of threads give me hope, because I can see the blatant mistakes that a lot of hosts are making. The fact that they got away with it for so long is actually quite impressive. - Investor · Scottsdale Austin Tuktoyaktuk · Member since 2021 · 4k+ posts · 4k+ votes3y
Quote from @Jon Martin:
I think the 2 sentences above might've been the same thread/listing. House was in AZ and had an anchor & ship wheel on the first page .. .. Seriously?!I saw a post where the guy stated he had no bookings and provided a link. Half of the first photos were of prints on the bedroom walls that had fancy sayings but didn't show the room or the bed. Not sure why he thought showing marginal art work would get him a listing.
There was one indicating how close he was to 3 major freeways. Doesn't sound peaceful or restful to me. Convenient perhaps, but I have no idea why that was so important to him over the amenities of the property.
Those kinds of threads give me hope, because I can see the blatant mistakes that a lot of hosts are making. The fact that they got away with it for so long is actually quite impressive.@Jonathan W.: Yep. You're right on the money. He is in Tempe. A nice enough town in it's own right but not where people go for holiday or vacation. Does one go to Riverside CA for vacation or do they choose Anaheim, Newport Beach & Santa Barbara? Location, location, location.
Mine is on the edge of Scottsdale in North Phoenix, with king & queen beds, 5 bed 3 bath, pool, pets allowed, views of the mountains, safe neighborhood and easy drive to where the Superbowl is being played, the TPC where the golf tournament is, near spring training, near hospitals so families can have a place to stay when grandpa is having a splinter removed from his buttocks, near old town Scottsdale and near where everything is happening. The listing has no pictures of pictures on the walls and was designed by a professional interior designer and so on.
Which would you choose?
Is it extra work to make a really nice VRBO/AirBNB, yes. It starts with location and property. The rest, (interiors, amenities and so on) you can improve to make things even better. - Rental Property Investor · Phoenix, AZ and Rehoboth Beach DE · Member since 2019 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes3y
Quote from @Jon Martin:
I think the 2 sentences above might've been the same thread/listing. House was in AZ and had an anchor & ship wheel on the first page .. .. Seriously?!I saw a post where the guy stated he had no bookings and provided a link. Half of the first photos were of prints on the bedroom walls that had fancy sayings but didn't show the room or the bed. Not sure why he thought showing marginal art work would get him a listing.
There was one indicating how close he was to 3 major freeways. Doesn't sound peaceful or restful to me. Convenient perhaps, but I have no idea why that was so important to him over the amenities of the property.
Those kinds of threads give me hope, because I can see the blatant mistakes that a lot of hosts are making. The fact that they got away with it for so long is actually quite impressive.And I told the guy what his main problem was. He only has the next 3 months open on his calendar, and Airbnb doesn't like that. They give preference to listings open a year or more out. He never responded, and he hasn't changed his calendar, I just checked.
- Member since 2022 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes3y
Quote from @Lauren Kormylo:
And I told the guy what his main problem was. He only has the next 3 months open on his calendar, and Airbnb doesn't like that. They give preference to listings open a year or more out. He never responded, and he hasn't changed his calendar, I just checked.
Yes, and i appreciate that tip as well, I would've never thought of that. And the multiple photos of the same pieces of cliche motivational word art . . .. ugh. The fact that he never replied suggested that he was just in a panic and vent mode, but maybe he will take the advise given. Or not.
- Realtor · Gatlinburg · Member since 2020 · 1k+ posts · 957 votes3y
Quote from @John Underwood:
January and February are typically very slow. We have about $7,000 worth of bookings in February so far at the PF cabin but have an 8k mortgage.
I expect to be negative in January and February. We have strong bookings April through September and December so far.
My 4 bed is doing similar. Jan and February are losing 1k but I blocked off 4 weeks for renovations. My guess is I probably would have had maybe 1 reservation. My property is heavily geared towards PF and dollywood crowd which is closed until early March.
Beyond February, everything is booking strong except may (only have Memorial Day weekend booked but at a high premium)p
I think January and February going forward are going to be dead months like I assume how it was pre Covid, you’ll be lucky to cover expenses if you have a mortgage . So this probably equates to a 20 percent haircut since during Covid Jan and February were likely booking at unsustainable numbers. I still think by the summer we could be looking at a precarious spot where even the peak months could see a decline in demand, but hopefully that’s not the case, but I’m planning for it.
This cleansing is definitely necessary though. The weak listings will close up shop or if they can afford it will pay out of pocket. New construction slows down and maybe another wild fire will hit and decrease supply again (obviously not wanting this to happen but just stating possibilities). Just hold on to your properties and don’t sell.I have a “lowest” price I’ll take for my properties. If I don’t book at that I’ll just eat it, but my lowest price is reasonable.
I see a big transition of self managing to property managers. It sounds counterintuitive that if you make less money you would pay a PM fee, but if your option is to sell and lose 300k on your cabin, or self manage and make peanuts for all the effort then the option of paying 20 percent on a declining revenue cabin to take a small loss with tax deductions as an expense makes it a whole lot more appealing than grinding self management for below minimum wage. - Rental Property Investor · North Fork, NY · Member since 2016 · 1k+ posts · 631 votes3y
Another voice of reason blog post, Collin. Especially your last sentence!!
@John Carbone What are you basing your comment on about an increase in PM from previous self managers? Do you see that trend @Collin Hays? - Realtor · Gatlinburg · Member since 2020 · 1k+ posts · 957 votes3y
Quote from @Nancy Bachety:
Another voice of reason blog post, Collin. Especially your last sentence!!
@John Carbone What are you basing your comment on about an increase in PM from previous self managers? Do you see that trend @Collin Hays?As a self manager myself, the appeal is having it make enough money to be worth my time to invest in doing it. For example, let’s assume someone has a million dollar cabin that rents for 150k revenue on 80k in expenses for a profit of 70k. For most people, they view that as 70k profit for themselves or 40k profit with a PM. For 70k profit more people will be willing to self manage as it will return a higher return to them hourly. However, if rents drop down to 100k and the owner is looking at a 20k profit to do all the work of self managing, that’s a 70 percent paycut for the self manager to still have to do the same work as before. The owner could have it managed by someone at this point and “break even” on cash flow but do no work, or do all the work to pocket the 20k themselves. The other option is selling the property at 300k or so less, but that won’t make sense either for most people.
At the end of the day does someone who has the means to own a million dollar property going to want to deal with self management to profit 20k a year? They may when it’s making 70k a year, but at 20K you are working for minimum wage and the inconvenience.
I’d say the trend will start to be noticeable if the slow down continues, and will be something people will be looking at doing when they see their 2023 numbers next year and they ask themselves, is my time worth the profits this makes for self managing in the new environment?
- Property Manager · Gatlinburg, TN · Member since 2020 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes3y
Quote from @Nancy Bachety:
Another voice of reason blog post, Collin. Especially your last sentence!!
@John Carbone What are you basing your comment on about an increase in PM from previous self managers? Do you see that trend @Collin Hays?Nancy, I've never really thought of it as John puts it. But I would guess half or more of our homeowner clients are previously self-managers. Most of them just get tired of the headache for the extra cash they could save. I don't know that they are doing all that much work - maybe it's just the extra worry when they lay down to sleep at night.
I have always said that it is no secret that one can keep a lot of money by self-managing. But each of us makes decisions like this daily. I can pocket quite a bit of money laundering and ironing my own shirts, having my wife clean the house, changing my car oil, mowing the lawn, and brewing my own Starbucks coffee. It is all really how much one values their free time. If it's worth the saved money to have a part time job managing your rental, then that's the best answer.
Most of our clients are white collar folks - attorneys, doctors, company executives, etc. They've bought properties for income and a store of value. They have no interest in managing property.
- Member since 2022 · 272 posts · 253 votes3y
Quote from @John Underwood:
January and February are typically very slow. We have about $7,000 worth of bookings in February so far at the PF cabin but have an 8k mortgage.
I expect to be negative in January and February. We have strong bookings April through September and December so far.
Agree with this statement. We cover 90-110% of the mortgage in Jan/feb. More in the busy season
- Rental Property Investor · Charlotte, NC · Member since 2021 · 71 posts · 49 votes3y
The article is well said. We can't anchor solely on historical revenue. Also identifying when to pivot rates is huge, dynamic pricing helps but only does so much.
- Cambridge, MA · Member since 2015 · 652 posts · 736 votes3y
Today my Airbnb stock shot up 13% in value because Airbnb bookings worldwide were much higher than expected in the last quarter of 2022.
The issue with hosts not getting expected bookings must have to do with an over saturated supply.
- Realtor · Gatlinburg · Member since 2020 · 1k+ posts · 957 votes3y
Quote from @Carolyn Fuller:
Today my Airbnb stock shot up 13% in value because Airbnb bookings worldwide were much higher than expected in the last quarter of 2022.
The issue with hosts not getting expected bookings must have to do with an over saturated supply.
I think this tells us that there is still demand, but the days of renting out tents, 200 square foot tiny homes, rvs, or severely outdated properties are in the past. Significant investment has been made into STRs so if you don’t have a high quality listing, you won’t do well.
It’s like with anything, in the long run the lazy will underperform or get out of the industry.
- Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes3y
Quote from @Ryan Moyer:
Let's not just blame it all on the newbies. There were plenty of people with a microphone (even well seasoned experts here on this forum) that got caught up in the excitement of 2021 and were telling newbies that it was the new norm.
ETA: And a lot of realtors these past few years were just as bad as the lenders in 2008.
actually, almost half of BP poster posted is rubbish and just a temporary trend, you can name it from long-term rental to cash flow market to Airbnb ,etc....
- Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes3y
Quote from @Carolyn Fuller:
Today my Airbnb stock shot up 13% in value because Airbnb bookings worldwide were much higher than expected in the last quarter of 2022.
The issue with hosts not getting expected bookings must have to do with an over saturated supply.
that money, rather than being used to purchase airbnb house, is btter used to buy Airbnb stock (or hilton hotel stock).
I can't believe people has this believe that someone would rent their house for 600 bucks per night continously lol - Realtor · Gatlinburg · Member since 2020 · 1k+ posts · 957 votes3y
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Carolyn Fuller:
Today my Airbnb stock shot up 13% in value because Airbnb bookings worldwide were much higher than expected in the last quarter of 2022.
The issue with hosts not getting expected bookings must have to do with an over saturated supply.
that money, rather than being used to purchase airbnb house, is btter used to buy Airbnb stock (or hilton hotel stock).
I can't believe people has this believe that someone would rent their house for 600 bucks per night continously lol$600 may be undercutting how ridiculous some people have taken it. I’ve read and heard stories from BP people that are underwriting over 1500-2000 a night at 80 percent occupancy on $3 mil dollar properties.
- Member since 2019 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes3y
Quote from @John Carbone:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Carolyn Fuller:
Today my Airbnb stock shot up 13% in value because Airbnb bookings worldwide were much higher than expected in the last quarter of 2022.
The issue with hosts not getting expected bookings must have to do with an over saturated supply.
that money, rather than being used to purchase airbnb house, is btter used to buy Airbnb stock (or hilton hotel stock).
I can't believe people has this believe that someone would rent their house for 600 bucks per night continously lol$600 may be undercutting how ridiculous some people have taken it. I’ve read and heard stories from BP people that are underwriting over 1500-2000 a night at 80 percent occupancy on $3 mil dollar properties.
I just surprise how investors is lacking basic common sense.
My STR is having full book capacity bcoz I'm against what most people preached here.
In basic economy, there's always dynamic between demand and supply LOL, 2K per night hahaha, I dont know what to say
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