How to calculate income on STR with no experience

[Mark Jacobs]

How do you begin to calculate projected income for a STR having no experience in that realm of REI.

I have a deal that may be worth doing, however its not as strait forward as a MF rental or SFH where you can very easily gauge the income of the property. This would really only work as STR. The math doesn't add for it to be cash flow positive maxing out realistic rents after value add for a long term rental. It's strictly a STR property in a coastal area next to the water (3 homes in the same lot with a pool) and the AIRdna data shows a lot of similar properties anywhere from 30-50% occupancy, anywhere from $150-500 per night.

Basically I have limited info on the data and projections and cant truly nail down income until i list the property, which really feels like a gamble vs an investment. Ive run different scenarios through my own spreadsheets but how does one pull the trigger on something like this?

Any input would be helpful. Thanks guys