STR that looks really good on AirDNA
Investor · Member since 2018 · 75 posts · 15 votes
STR that looks really good on AirDNA
Most Popular Reply
Collin HaysBusiness Member
Property Manager · Gatlinburg, TN · Member since 2020 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votesYou can shoot me the addresses and I can give you an analysis, no charge no strings.
33 Replies
- Investor · Member since 2018 · 75 posts · 15 votes3y
Thanks to everyone for your responses.
I have another question, what should I do? I've done some more research on AirDNA and Mashvisor however, I am coming up with two different analysis, this is what I am seeing from both:
AirDNA:
Annual Revenue - 121.6K
ADR - $378
Occupancy Rate - 88%
Mashvisor:
Annual Revenue - 24,552
ADR - $68
Occupancy Rate - 98%
Im also using BNB CALC as a PM tool to run my numbers, I change the data from AirDNA 88% to 60% Occupancy to be more conservative, here are my numbers:
Property Value - $299,000
ADR - $275
Annual Revenue - $60,225
Operating Expenses - (-$21,554)
Operating Income - $38,750
Mortgage & Taxes - (-$29,040)
Cash Flow - $9,710
I've compared other STRs however, there are not too many STRs close by, so why am I getting a huge difference from AirDNA & Mashvisor? I am wanting to pull the trigger, but I can’t seem to come up with numbers close enough to make a sound decision, I did speak with a PM in the area who gave me the following:
ADR $235
Occupancy – PM said that AirDNA was pretty accurate on the Occupancy Rate at 88%.
- 3yMichael BaumPro MemberOlympia, WA · Member since 2016 · 8k+ posts · 7k+ votes
They are algorithms @Murray Reginald. You never know what they are pulling, how they are pulling it and from when.
- 3ySarah KensingerPro MemberReal Estate Consultant · OH · Member since 2023 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
Quote from @Murray Reginald:
Thanks to everyone for your responses.
I have another question, what should I do? I've done some more research on AirDNA and Mashvisor however, I am coming up with two different analysis, this is what I am seeing from both:
AirDNA:
Annual Revenue - 121.6K
ADR - $378
Occupancy Rate - 88%
Mashvisor:
Annual Revenue - 24,552
ADR - $68
Occupancy Rate - 98%
Im also using BNB CALC as a PM tool to run my numbers, I change the data from AirDNA 88% to 60% Occupancy to be more conservative, here are my numbers:
Property Value - $299,000
ADR - $275
Annual Revenue - $60,225
Operating Expenses - (-$21,554)
Operating Income - $38,750
Mortgage & Taxes - (-$29,040)
Cash Flow - $9,710
I've compared other STRs however, there are not too many STRs close by, so why am I getting a huge difference from AirDNA & Mashvisor? I am wanting to pull the trigger, but I can’t seem to come up with numbers close enough to make a sound decision, I did speak with a PM in the area who gave me the following:
ADR $235
Occupancy – PM said that AirDNA was pretty accurate on the Occupancy Rate at 88%.
Airdna is pulling previous data off Airbnb and VRBO, which is why most people looking to analyze a property and even lenders use their data. Mashvisor is hardly used, and I don't think people find it very reliable. If you're looking for another source checkout Rabbu which is free and pulls the next 30 days of data off Airbnb/VRBO. And there is also STRinsights which is very reliable and less expensive than Airdna.
- 3yMichael PorchePro MemberRental Property Investor · Boise, ID · Member since 2017 · 220 posts · 101 votes
Hey @Murray Reginald, I actually just answered a similar question like this earlier. so I'll repost what I wrote and told him. Hope this helps:
- You need to check the comparables AirDNA decides to use and pull from to make sure they are 1) similar location in proximity. 2) like the property in terms of natural amenities (views, waterfront) and amenities you can put in yourself (hot tub, pool etc).
- Next you need to make sure you the data/comparables airdna is 1) pulling is good data. Meaning you want to make sure the data has reviews that is aligned with the amount of revenue it is making. Meaning if there is only 5 reviews but it says the comp made 200k.. well that might be telling airdna pulled bad data and you cant use that comp.
- 2) Next is you can check the calendar of the comps it pulls and see if its random blocked days or if there is any uniformity. This also may mean airdna is reading the blocked days that someone blocked as reservations.
Hope this helps!
- Member since 2023 · 1 post · 0 votes3y
Quote from @Sarah Kensinger:
We're buying this year as well as many in our mastermind....those deals are still very much around!Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Sarah Kensinger:
So, I assume you know STR since your here on this forum. STR cash flow 2-3 times more than an LTR, which is one of the reasons many of us just do short-term over long-term. So, no you won't find a LTR with a 30% cap rate, you can't charge that much a month. But with a STR the monthly income can double or triple if the owner has done proper research of location, market, etc. and the property is managed correctly. We won't' look at a property that is below 20% cap rate and we are part of a large group that does the same practice, it's partly why all of us can do so well. If you have patience and know how to look, there is usually a diamond in the rough.Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Murray Reginald:
Hi BP,
I am looking at a couple beach house properties that looks really good on AirDNA however, AirDNA gave me the following analysis:
Beach House Property:
Annual Revenue - 121.6K
Occupancy Rate - 88%
Cap Rate - 29.51%
I have another house I see that has the following analysis:
Two Story House Near Beach:Annual Revenue - 121.6K
Occupancy Rate - 88%
Cap Rate - 29.51%
I've ran some comps on the beach house however, I don't see any 3:1s to compare I only see 4:2s and 2:1s, I'm trying to figure how accurate are these numbers and is there anything else I can do to confirm this will be a good investment since the Beach House has never been on AirBnB/VRBO im wondering how accurate is this information and how did AirDNA come up with those numbers.AirDNA is far from accurate. Come on, 30 cap rate doesn't exist even in LTR space. The most reliable way of finding the marketability of STR is checking their future-30-90 days online booking, that's what I found so far.
If you buy in 2011 then you would get 20 cap rate Lol but not when you purchase in 2023
Hi Sarah, I am new to STR investing but have a couple of LTR in my hometown. How can I learn more about your mastermind group? Thank you!
- Bloomington, MN · Member since 2023 · 17 posts · 13 votes3yWhy are you not including $526 in HOA in your total expenses? Assuming that's an error, your cashflow would go down from $1,465 to $940. You also self-manage. Haircut another 20% off the top for 3rd party property management and you'll be left with $100 in your pocket every month. Not exactly a winner, is it?
Quote from @Sarah Kensinger:
2 bed/ 2 bath. Sandestin FL March of 2023Quote from @Sarah Kensinger:
Evolve?!? That just explained everything.Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Sarah Kensinger:
I'm not sure what to say but we almost bought a FL condo that required a bit of "lipstick" work that had 20% cap rate, just directed a client to a home in Ohio that had close to 27% cap rate, and as I look for other properties we may personally purchase I come across 20% fairly often. $200,000-$300,000 price range and once all utilities, taxes, insurance, supplies, furnishings, etc are accounted for, you're looking at a 20+ COC return. That's how we are able to have successful STR without dealing with "the Airbnb bust", over saturated, low bookings, and everything else you hear. We watch, wait and run numbers like crazy to find that "perfect" numbers property. I would highly suggest checking out Bill Faeth and Michael Sjogren since they regularly teach this and have used this strategy for years.Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Sarah Kensinger:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Sarah Kensinger:
We're buying this year as well as many in our mastermind....those deals are still very much around!Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Sarah Kensinger:
So, I assume you know STR since your here on this forum. STR cash flow 2-3 times more than an LTR, which is one of the reasons many of us just do short-term over long-term. So, no you won't find a LTR with a 30% cap rate, you can't charge that much a month. But with a STR the monthly income can double or triple if the owner has done proper research of location, market, etc. and the property is managed correctly. We won't' look at a property that is below 20% cap rate and we are part of a large group that does the same practice, it's partly why all of us can do so well. If you have patience and know how to look, there is usually a diamond in the rough.Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Murray Reginald:
Hi BP,
I am looking at a couple beach house properties that looks really good on AirDNA however, AirDNA gave me the following analysis:
Beach House Property:
Annual Revenue - 121.6K
Occupancy Rate - 88%
Cap Rate - 29.51%
I have another house I see that has the following analysis:
Two Story House Near Beach:Annual Revenue - 121.6K
Occupancy Rate - 88%
Cap Rate - 29.51%
I've ran some comps on the beach house however, I don't see any 3:1s to compare I only see 4:2s and 2:1s, I'm trying to figure how accurate are these numbers and is there anything else I can do to confirm this will be a good investment since the Beach House has never been on AirBnB/VRBO im wondering how accurate is this information and how did AirDNA come up with those numbers.AirDNA is far from accurate. Come on, 30 cap rate doesn't exist even in LTR space. The most reliable way of finding the marketability of STR is checking their future-30-90 days online booking, that's what I found so far.
If you buy in 2011 then you would get 20 cap rate Lol but not when you purchase in 2023
There is no STR market in 2023 that has two digit cap rate, it is just impossible in math
Ok when we purchase ours, I'll add it to the review and feedback forum and maybe send some of our mastermind friends to do the same. ;p
you can say whatever you want, unless the accounting is cooked or it's in rural area where booking is only few times a year/not sustainable. Double digit Cap rate market in most urban city is simply not available/not possible. Airdna even has writing on this: https://www.airdna.co/blog/you...
I've been researching STR, the only way you could do double digit cap rate only if:
1. you use the purchase price in 2010
2. it's somewhere rural that your purchase price is close to zero and rent it for three hundred bucks a month LOL
Good Honest PM like ArrivedHomes for example, is showing with STR, the positive addition of cap rate compare to LTR is only yielding additional 1 percent, so if LTR market is 3%, actual cap rate for STR is 4%.Also if one is reading Here PM STR "audited financial report", their actual profit loss statement is negative for all their 2022 properties, even in rural properties it is negative single digit cap rate (bought for 1.5 mil and rent for $400/night with 40% vacancy).
You could just share the address and how do you account for 20% cap rate in Florida condo :)
This calculation is coming from Evolve, this is few years ago number and after I calculated everything, the number looks to be accurate. The FL condo actual cap rate is only 4%: https://evolve.com/blog/homeow...
If anyone else is interested I can break the numbers for your property just like the above photo.
- 3ySarah KensingerPro MemberReal Estate Consultant · OH · Member since 2023 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
Quote from @Cindy Wilson:
Quote from @Sarah Kensinger:
We're buying this year as well as many in our mastermind....those deals are still very much around!Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Sarah Kensinger:
So, I assume you know STR since your here on this forum. STR cash flow 2-3 times more than an LTR, which is one of the reasons many of us just do short-term over long-term. So, no you won't find a LTR with a 30% cap rate, you can't charge that much a month. But with a STR the monthly income can double or triple if the owner has done proper research of location, market, etc. and the property is managed correctly. We won't' look at a property that is below 20% cap rate and we are part of a large group that does the same practice, it's partly why all of us can do so well. If you have patience and know how to look, there is usually a diamond in the rough.Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Murray Reginald:
Hi BP,
I am looking at a couple beach house properties that looks really good on AirDNA however, AirDNA gave me the following analysis:
Beach House Property:
Annual Revenue - 121.6K
Occupancy Rate - 88%
Cap Rate - 29.51%
I have another house I see that has the following analysis:
Two Story House Near Beach:Annual Revenue - 121.6K
Occupancy Rate - 88%
Cap Rate - 29.51%
I've ran some comps on the beach house however, I don't see any 3:1s to compare I only see 4:2s and 2:1s, I'm trying to figure how accurate are these numbers and is there anything else I can do to confirm this will be a good investment since the Beach House has never been on AirBnB/VRBO im wondering how accurate is this information and how did AirDNA come up with those numbers.AirDNA is far from accurate. Come on, 30 cap rate doesn't exist even in LTR space. The most reliable way of finding the marketability of STR is checking their future-30-90 days online booking, that's what I found so far.
If you buy in 2011 then you would get 20 cap rate Lol but not when you purchase in 2023
Hi Sarah, I am new to STR investing but have a couple of LTR in my hometown. How can I learn more about your mastermind group? Thank you!
We're part of Short-Term Rental Secrets and they should have info on their site. It's mostly for co-hosting, but if you own a couple and want to continue growing it's a good group for that as well. If you book a call with them, someone can walk you through your goals and then help you decided if it's a good fit for you. We love the mastermind and everyone we know and/or have met! Plus, there is so much value in one place from so many people, that are on the same page working towards a similar goal.
- 3yJay ThomasPro MemberReal Estate Agent · Houston, TX · Member since 2021 · 1k+ posts · 715 votes
It's a great idea to double-check the data's accuracy with local experts, pay a visit to the property in person, and stay in the loop with current market trends. With your expertise, conducting thorough due diligence will be your compass for a successful investment journey in Houston. Best of luck!
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