Are you seeing 2019 numbers?

Short-Term & Vacation Rental Discussions
3yFollow

Are you seeing 2019 numbers?

Brittany Stradling
Investor · Indianapolis, IN · Member since 2021 · 38 posts · 85 votes

Are people seeing 2019 numbers this year or is it just my property? My property is new and I'm not sure if this is normal. I evaluated the property based on an average of 2019, 2020, and 2021 numbers, so it cannot survive based on 2019 numbers alone. 

0Reply
21 views

Most Popular Reply

Nathan GesnerBusiness Member
Moderator
Real Estate Broker · Cody, WY · Member since 2010 · 28k+ posts · 41k+ votes
3y
Quote from @Brittany Stradling:

Are people seeing 2019 numbers this year or is it just my property? My property is new and I'm not sure if this is normal. I evaluated the property based on an average of 2019, 2020, and 2021 numbers, so it cannot survive based on 2019 numbers alone. 

2020/2021 were banner years and shouldn't be used for projecting future revenue. 

Bookings for my area are back to 2019 levels. Revenue is up because we've increased rates, but expenses are up on utilities, taxes, insurance, consumables, cleaning fees, etc. In my neck of the woods, it's a wash and we're essentially performing like we did in 2019.

EDIT: If you can't survive without performing like 2020/2021, then I recommend you start finding creative ways to increase revenue. Don't wait for the inevitable. Can you convert to a month-to-month rental, place traveling nurses, and produce a more stable income? Cut expenses? Add some features that increase bookings? Create add-on services that generate additional revenue? Don't say "I can't" and give up. Ask "how can I?" and then find solutions.

The DIY Landlord Book4.7247 Reviews
WebsiteView Page
5Reply
See this reply in the discussion

18 Replies

Jump to latestLatest
  • Bill B.
    Investor · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2013 · 8k+ posts · 10k+ votes
    3y

    I’m not sure which numbers you mean?

    For me, compared to 2019:

    Rents are up about 20%, prices are up maybe 30%, interest rates are up about 50%, insurance is up about 15%, property taxes are up 6%, appliances are up 30%. I can’t think of one number that’s near 2019 numbers. 

    3Reply
  • Brittany Stradling
    OP
    Investor · Indianapolis, IN · Member since 2021 · 38 posts · 85 votes
    3y
    Quote from @Bill B.:

    I’m not sure which numbers you mean?

    For me, compared to 2019:

    Rents are up about 20%, prices are up maybe 30%, interest rates are up about 50%, insurance is up about 15%, property taxes are up 6%, appliances are up 30%. I can’t think of one number that’s near 2019 numbers. 


     I'm referring to 2019 revenue 

    0Reply
  • Andrew SteffensBusiness Member
    Tampa, FL · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    3y

    I think it is too early too tell (would need the full year data as we are seeing more bookings than usual in Sept and Oct) but rev was up around 50% 2020-2022 and I think we may end up down 10-15% off 2022. 

    [email protected]813-563-0877
    Vacation Rentals of Florida53 Reviews
    WebsiteView Page
    1Reply
  • Collin HaysBusiness Member
    Property Manager · Gatlinburg, TN · Member since 2020 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    3y

    I took a quick look at the various properties that we manage.  The average property revenue is 25-30 percent higher than 2019.  The bulk of that is purely inflation.

    2021 and 2022 were bubble years.  They do not indicate future performance, because there were extraordinary forces related to COVID that likely will not be repeated.  These forces created a temporary market imbalance of an oversupply of guests chasing an undersupply of rentals.  The imbalance is now gone.

    [email protected]806-672-7102
    SMOKY MOUNTAIN FALLS INC.51 Review
    WebsiteView Page
    4Reply
  • Michael BaumPro Member
    Olympia, WA · Member since 2016 · 8k+ posts · 7k+ votes
    3y

    Hey @Brittany Stradling, we are seeing about a 10% increase in revenue from 2019. That is more due to a rate increase I implemented in 2022. 

    How new is your STR? The first year of operation is normally light. Very rarely do you see 100% of your projections in the first year. You need to build up some 5 star reviews. After the first year, things start to get rolling.

    3Reply
  • Sarah KensingerPro Member
    Real Estate Consultant · OH · Member since 2023 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    3y

    You may need to give you property a bit of a revamp to boost bookings.

    [email protected]330-557-3021
    0Reply
  • Account Closed
    Rental Property Investor · New Braunfels, TX · Member since 2022 · 409 posts · 408 votes
    3y
    Quote from @Michael Baum:

    The first year of operation is normally light. 

    We are in trouble then. Our first month has been incredible..........
    0Reply
  • Collin HaysBusiness Member
    Property Manager · Gatlinburg, TN · Member since 2020 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    3y
    Quote from @Account Closed:
    Quote from @Michael Baum:

    The first year of operation is normally light. 

    We are in trouble then. Our first month has been incredible..........

     Let me guess, you're killing it?  ;)

    [email protected]806-672-7102
    SMOKY MOUNTAIN FALLS INC.51 Review
    WebsiteView Page
    2Reply
  • Brittany Stradling
    OP
    Investor · Indianapolis, IN · Member since 2021 · 38 posts · 85 votes
    3y
    Quote from @Michael Baum:

    Hey @Brittany Stradling, we are seeing about a 10% increase in revenue from 2019. That is more due to a rate increase I implemented in 2022. 

    How new is your STR? The first year of operation is normally light. Very rarely do you see 100% of your projections in the first year. You need to build up some 5 star reviews. After the first year, things start to get rolling.


     Yup, very new! We went live in June. Occupancy is great but ADR is just too low. 

    0Reply
  • Scott K.
    Member since 2020 · 223 posts · 233 votes
    3y

    If you based your revenue off of pandemic numbers, that's a bad assumption. Revenue skyrocketed and now it's falling again. It'll probably normalize out next year, but also keep in mind that competition in airbnbs is super high this year. Everyone saw pandemic numbers and thought gee I should buy an Airbnb!

    As an aside, New listings generally perform just fine. Reviews are not that important at the start. I get booked within hours of a new listing. If you get bad reviews then you're screwed. But people view a new listing the same as a listing with positive reviews. YMMV

    0Reply
  • Nathan GesnerBusiness Member
    Moderator
    Real Estate Broker · Cody, WY · Member since 2010 · 28k+ posts · 41k+ votes
    3y
    Quote from @Brittany Stradling:

    Are people seeing 2019 numbers this year or is it just my property? My property is new and I'm not sure if this is normal. I evaluated the property based on an average of 2019, 2020, and 2021 numbers, so it cannot survive based on 2019 numbers alone. 

    2020/2021 were banner years and shouldn't be used for projecting future revenue. 

    Bookings for my area are back to 2019 levels. Revenue is up because we've increased rates, but expenses are up on utilities, taxes, insurance, consumables, cleaning fees, etc. In my neck of the woods, it's a wash and we're essentially performing like we did in 2019.

    EDIT: If you can't survive without performing like 2020/2021, then I recommend you start finding creative ways to increase revenue. Don't wait for the inevitable. Can you convert to a month-to-month rental, place traveling nurses, and produce a more stable income? Cut expenses? Add some features that increase bookings? Create add-on services that generate additional revenue? Don't say "I can't" and give up. Ask "how can I?" and then find solutions.

    The DIY Landlord Book4.7247 Reviews
    WebsiteView Page
    5Reply
  • Michael BaumPro Member
    Olympia, WA · Member since 2016 · 8k+ posts · 7k+ votes
    3y
    Quote from @Brittany Stradling:
    Quote from @Michael Baum:

    Hey @Brittany Stradling, we are seeing about a 10% increase in revenue from 2019. That is more due to a rate increase I implemented in 2022. 

    How new is your STR? The first year of operation is normally light. Very rarely do you see 100% of your projections in the first year. You need to build up some 5 star reviews. After the first year, things start to get rolling.


     Yup, very new! We went live in June. Occupancy is great but ADR is just too low. 

    Ok! So if your occupancy is really high, then you need to increase your daily rate. How did you come up with your nightly? Are you using some kind of auto adjuster like Pricelabs?

    I hope you are on both AirBNB and VRBO. Where are you seeing your occupancy coming from?

    Finally, where is the place located?

    0Reply
  • Michael BaumPro Member
    Olympia, WA · Member since 2016 · 8k+ posts · 7k+ votes
    3y
    Quote from @Account Closed:
    Quote from @Michael Baum:

    The first year of operation is normally light. 

    We are in trouble then. Our first month has been incredible..........
    Well that is awesome! It is just a general rule. If you have setup a special place at a good price in an area that is hot, then you might just hit the ground running!

    Gratz!
    0Reply
  • Account Closed
    Rental Property Investor · New Braunfels, TX · Member since 2022 · 409 posts · 408 votes
    3y
    Quote from @Collin Hays:
    Quote from @Account Closed:
    Quote from @Michael Baum:

    The first year of operation is normally light. 

    We are in trouble then. Our first month has been incredible..........

     Let me guess, you're killing it?  ;)

    Yes sir. We listed on May 28, first guest on Jun 8, 10 nights booked in June and 21 nights booked in July and have Aug and Sept bookings already too. All 5 star reviews so far! 
    1Reply
  • Account Closed
    Rental Property Investor · New Braunfels, TX · Member since 2022 · 409 posts · 408 votes
    3y
    Quote from @Michael Baum:

    Gratz!
    Thanks to you we have a 55 inch smart TV in the living room that we got for a very good price during the super bowl...
    0Reply
  • Michael BaumPro Member
    Olympia, WA · Member since 2016 · 8k+ posts · 7k+ votes
    3y
    Quote from @Account Closed:
    Quote from @Michael Baum:

    Gratz!
    Thanks to you we have a 55 inch smart TV in the living room that we got for a very good price during the super bowl...
    You are welcome! I love finding deals others can take advantage of.
    0Reply
  • Brittany Stradling
    OP
    Investor · Indianapolis, IN · Member since 2021 · 38 posts · 85 votes
    3y
    Quote from @Michael Baum:

     Yup, very new! We went live in June. Occupancy is great but ADR is just too low. 

    Ok! So if your occupancy is really high, then you need to increase your daily rate. How did you come up with your nightly? Are you using some kind of auto adjuster like Pricelabs?

    I hope you are on both AirBNB and VRBO. Where are you seeing your occupancy coming from?

    Finally, where is the place located?

    I am using pricelabs but going under what they recommend. Whenever I use their recommended prices, I don't get booked. I'm definitely the least confident regarding how to price my cabin.

    I'm on both airbnb and vrbo. I'd say 85% of bookings are coming from Airbnb right now. I plan on creating a direct booking site in the next few months. 

    My space is a 1 br cabin in the smokies. It's very comfortable but could use some updates. I plan on updating during the off season.

    0Reply
  • Ken Boone
    Investor · Greenville, SC · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    3y

    Yea if you bought a 1 bedroom in the smokies you are not going to hit a number that you based off of the last 2 years.  It's just not gonna happen.  The 1 bedrooms have a ton of competition.  There are really only 2 things you can do to get more bookings - upgrade/add more amenities (more games, bigger smart TVs, add a game console, etc)  If you have an arcade cabinet and a hot tub only then you are average just like every other 1 bedroom cabin.  It may be that you just can't fit anything else in your space as well.  To get more bookings from the other guys, in this lower demand market, then you need to stand out more.  The other option is simply price.  The lower price is gonna get the booking first.  

    Unfortunately I think there are a lot of people in your shoes right now.  

    1Reply
Join the conversationCreate a free account to reply, vote on answers and follow this thread.
Log InJoin for Free