Group consensus on a deal

Member since 2023 · 11 posts · 2 votes

I found a brand new townhome in Kissimmee with luxury finishes, resort style amenities, the whole nine. The price is $435K and I was thinking of doing 20% down. This townhome is a 5 bed/ 4 bath with 2020 sqft so it's got more than enough room for bigger families while also being versatile to smaller families who may want to use the extra rooms for storing clothes and suitcases. With a $5,000 rebate back at closing I'm looking to buy down the rate by a point. AirDNA gave me the following estimates: $300/night | 65% Occupancy |$71,100 Revenue with this data I feel comfortable making a move on this one. Let me know your thoughts

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Ryan MoyerBusiness Member

Property Manager · Orlando Kissimmee Davenport Salt Lake City, Park City · Member since 2019 · 991 posts · 1k+ votes

I have 12 in the area. The estimates you're getting from AirDNA are way high and out of date. You're not going to rent that place for $300nt at 71% occupancy or anywhere near that with the extreme saturation in both number of properties and quality of property over the last 2 years.

Disney was slow in the offseason but traffic there has bounced back with avengeance. It is ridiculously packed there right now. The problem is the supply and quality of vacation rentals is through the roof. A regular really nice 5 br townhouse with resort amenities might be a top end desirable unit in Cocoa Beach but it's probably going to be bottom 20th percentile in this market.

As an example, this place is available for $135/nt next week. https://www.airbnb.com/rooms/1002836101465378764

And there are thousands of others like it. How does the place you're looking at compare to that?

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Michael Stoyanov
Realtor · Naples, FL · Member since 2020 · 16 posts · 6 votes
2y
Hi Michael,
Airdna is not a good place to get valid numbers unfortunately. I believe they are going to be lower unfortunately. The general rule of thumb is that the property generates about 10% +/- of its value in terms of annual income. If you can produce $71K off this property, I would say purchase it immediately, but I am afraid it will be closer to $40K-$50K annually currently, if it is set up and updated properly.
I would love to hear what others think of these numbers....
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