Fasten your seatbelts: Turbulence ahead.

Fasten your seatbelts: Turbulence ahead.

Collin HaysBusiness Member
Property Manager 路 Gatlinburg, TN 路 Member since 2020 路 3k+ posts 路 4k+ votes

As the shutdown drags on, there are starting to be some serious cracks in the travel industry, and quite likely, the economy in general.  Today, 3 percent of flights have been cancelled by the major airlines, and that ratchets up to 10 percent next week.  That doesn't sound like a lot, but it is huge.  Flights into secondary markets from the major hubs are already being cut as much as 20 to 30 percent.  

Meanwhile, an anti-travel sentiment is soaking in. Folks are delaying or cancelling travel, simply because of anxiety about getting there and back home on time, and safety concerns.  And as corporate layoffs in October were at their highest for the month in 22 years, we have some rough waters ahead in terms of consumer discretionary spending. That is going to affect STRs significantly.  

Even if the government re-opened today, a lot of damage has been done.  I suggest that you call your representlives. 

Fasten up.  Turbulence ahead.

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Investor 路 Greenville, SC 路 Member since 2016 路 5k+ posts 路 13k+ votes
11mo
Quote from @Carolyn Fuller:

I think you have misplaced the blame for the financial chaos we are experiencing right now.

The blame is on both parties.  Our government printed massive amounts of money, increased the money supply 40%, droves prices of everything way up, and people are upset.

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  • Cambridge, MA 路 Member since 2015 路 652 posts 路 736 votes
    11mo

    I think you have misplaced the blame for the financial chaos we are experiencing right now.

    • Collin HaysBusiness Member
      OP
      Property Manager 路 Gatlinburg, TN 路 Member since 2020 路 3k+ posts 路 4k+ votes
      11mo
      Quote from @Carolyn Fuller:

      I think you have misplaced the blame for the financial chaos we are experiencing right now. 

      I'm not a Trump fan. But whether you are or you aren't, we just passed a budget a few months ago. 

    • Investor 路 Greenville, SC 路 Member since 2016 路 5k+ posts 路 13k+ votes
      11mo
      Quote from @Carolyn Fuller:

      I think you have misplaced the blame for the financial chaos we are experiencing right now.

      The blame is on both parties.  Our government printed massive amounts of money, increased the money supply 40%, droves prices of everything way up, and people are upset.

  • Henry ClarkPro Member
    Developer 路 Member since 2020 路 4k+ posts 路 4k+ votes
    11mo

    Midterm elections are done.  Things should move forward from the political standpoint.  The thing I would watch is the U.S. dollar.  

  • Rental Property Investor 路 Phoenix, AZ and Rehoboth Beach DE 路 Member since 2019 路 1k+ posts 路 1k+ votes
    11mo

    I do not come to this forum to hear political bull. 

    • Collin HaysBusiness Member
      OP
      Property Manager 路 Gatlinburg, TN 路 Member since 2020 路 3k+ posts 路 4k+ votes
      11mo
      Quote from @Lauren Kormylo:

      I do not come to this forum to hear political bull.

      It isn't political. Regardless of your and my political leanings (I am not right wing by the way), Congress literally just passed a bipartisan budget this summer. Keeping the government shut down is unethical, regardless of the party. 

      In the final analysis, however, the damage from the shutdown is done.  

  • John UnderwoodPro Member
    Investor 路 Greer, SC 路 Member since 2014 路 13k+ posts 路 17k+ votes
    11mo

    It's good to have drivable getaways like Pigeon Forge!

  • John UnderwoodPro Member
    Investor 路 Greer, SC 路 Member since 2014 路 13k+ posts 路 17k+ votes
    11mo
    Quote from @Collin Hays:

    As the shutdown drags on, there are starting to be some serious cracks in the travel industry, and quite likely, the economy in general.  Today, 3 percent of flights have been cancelled by the major airlines, and that ratchets up to 10 percent next week.  That doesn't sound like a lot, but it is huge.  Flights into secondary markets from the major hubs are already being cut as much as 20 to 30 percent.  

    Meanwhile, an anti-travel sentiment is soaking in. Folks are delaying or cancelling travel, simply because of anxiety about getting there and back home on time, and safety concerns.  And as corporate layoffs in October were at their highest for the month in 22 years, we have some rough waters ahead in terms of consumer discretionary spending. That is going to affect STRs significantly.  

    Even if the government re-opened today, a lot of damage has been done.  I suggest that you call your representatives.

    Fasten up.  Turbulence ahead.

     I agree.

  • JD MartinBusiness Member
    Moderator
    Rock Star Extraordinaire 路 Northeast, TN 路 Member since 2015 路 10k+ posts 路 17k+ votes
    11mo

    No politics. You can call your reps all you like but placing blame is outside the permissions of these forums. 

    Skyline Properties
    View Page
    • Rental Property Investor 路 New Braunfels, TX 路 Member since 2021 路 291 posts 路 257 votes
      11mo
      Quote from @JD Martin:

      No politics. You can call your reps all you like but placing blame is outside the permissions of these forums. 

      It would be such a much more fun forum if we could talk politics. Real estate is getting kind of boring. 
    • JD MartinBusiness Member
      Moderator
      Rock Star Extraordinaire 路 Northeast, TN 路 Member since 2015 路 10k+ posts 路 17k+ votes
      11mo
      Quote from @Mike Kirby:
      Quote from @JD Martin:

      No politics. You can call your reps all you like but placing blame is outside the permissions of these forums. 

      It would be such a much more fun forum if we could talk politics. Real estate is getting kind of boring. 
       

       馃ぃ Maybe so, but them's the rules!

      Skyline Properties
      View Page
  • Collin HaysBusiness Member
    OP
    Property Manager 路 Gatlinburg, TN 路 Member since 2020 路 3k+ posts 路 4k+ votes
    11mo

    The real purpose of this thread was to increase my post count.  馃ぃ

    Thanks everyone for playing along!


    馃

    • Investor 路 Greenville, SC 路 Member since 2015 路 1k+ posts 路 1k+ votes
      11mo
      Quote from @Collin Hays:

      The real purpose of this thread was to increase my post count.  馃ぃ

      Thanks everyone for playing along!


      馃


       Nailed it! Hahaha

  • Investor 路 Milwaukee - Mequon, WI 路 Member since 2010 路 5k+ posts 路 7k+ votes
    11mo

    You add on the fact that we see the same 100 billion $ handed over in a circle from one AI company to the next, all reporting it as revenue, the P/E ratio of the S&P500 is over 30 and that makes you wonder where corporate profits are supposed to go from here, inflation eating into consumers spending power - I would say @Collin Hays is right, brace for impact.

    Fortunatley, residential real estate is a relativley recession proof.

  • Realtor 路 Boulder, CO 路 Member since 2016 路 3k+ posts 路 5k+ votes
    11mo

    Not a good sign when the president invests heavily in crypto and comes out and says that it鈥檚 the best hedge against the US dollar collapsing. 

  • Andrew SteffensBusiness Member
    Tampa, FL 路 Member since 2022 路 4k+ posts 路 3k+ votes
    11mo

    Well I just got 3 bookings today from stranded travelers so maybe there are silver linings?

  • Investor 路 FL 路 Member since 2016 路 332 posts 路 388 votes
    11mo

    Was just having this conversation about the impact of the shutdown yesterday with another investor. Keeping this apolitical, but also analyzing historical data could help investors. At this time of the year things slow down usually in most US STR markets outside of Christmas and Thanksgiving. Now the largest employer in the US has quit paying most workers for 40 days. Combine this with already high personal debt interest rates compared to previous 5 years and highest consumer debt amounts. Additionally, government contractors are curtailed at getting paid and doing work due to many of the government contracting rules in place. As @Collin Hays said brace for impact.

    Historically, during the last major shutdown under Obama, that was designed by the executive branch to hurt, I was active duty and saw it first hand.  Fear consumed military and civilian work forces.  I have already seen it happening in my social circles. When fear creeps in, people do not spend.

    The silver lining: all government workers will get back paid and their honey do list should be done since they had 6 weeks off (what most of my neighbors are doing). When they get back paid expect a bump in bookings as for some it will be like getting a tax return check and it will be burning a hole in their pocket.

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