Property Manager 路 Gatlinburg, TN 路 Member since 2020 路 3k+ posts 路 4k+ votes
As the shutdown drags on, there are starting to be some serious cracks in the travel industry, and quite likely, the economy in general. Today, 3 percent of flights have been cancelled by the major airlines, and that ratchets up to 10 percent next week. That doesn't sound like a lot, but it is huge. Flights into secondary markets from the major hubs are already being cut as much as 20 to 30 percent.
Meanwhile, an anti-travel sentiment is soaking in. Folks are delaying or cancelling travel, simply because of anxiety about getting there and back home on time, and safety concerns. And as corporate layoffs in October were at their highest for the month in 22 years, we have some rough waters ahead in terms of consumer discretionary spending. That is going to affect STRs significantly.
Even if the government re-opened today, a lot of damage has been done. I suggest that you call your representlives.
I think you have misplaced the blame for the financial chaos we are experiencing right now.
The blame is on both parties. Our government printed massive amounts of money, increased the money supply 40%, droves prices of everything way up, and people are upset.
I think you have misplaced the blame for the financial chaos we are experiencing right now.
The blame is on both parties. Our government printed massive amounts of money, increased the money supply 40%, droves prices of everything way up, and people are upset.
I do not come to this forum to hear political bull.
It isn't political. Regardless of your and my political leanings (I am not right wing by the way), Congress literally just passed a bipartisan budget this summer. Keeping the government shut down is unethical, regardless of the party.
In the final analysis, however, the damage from the shutdown is done.
As the shutdown drags on, there are starting to be some serious cracks in the travel industry, and quite likely, the economy in general. Today, 3 percent of flights have been cancelled by the major airlines, and that ratchets up to 10 percent next week. That doesn't sound like a lot, but it is huge. Flights into secondary markets from the major hubs are already being cut as much as 20 to 30 percent.
Meanwhile, an anti-travel sentiment is soaking in. Folks are delaying or cancelling travel, simply because of anxiety about getting there and back home on time, and safety concerns. And as corporate layoffs in October were at their highest for the month in 22 years, we have some rough waters ahead in terms of consumer discretionary spending. That is going to affect STRs significantly.
Even if the government re-opened today, a lot of damage has been done. I suggest that you call your representatives.
You add on the fact that we see the same 100 billion $ handed over in a circle from one AI company to the next, all reporting it as revenue, the P/E ratio of the S&P500 is over 30 and that makes you wonder where corporate profits are supposed to go from here, inflation eating into consumers spending power - I would say @Collin Hays is right, brace for impact.
Fortunatley, residential real estate is a relativley recession proof.
Was just having this conversation about the impact of the shutdown yesterday with another investor. Keeping this apolitical, but also analyzing historical data could help investors. At this time of the year things slow down usually in most US STR markets outside of Christmas and Thanksgiving. Now the largest employer in the US has quit paying most workers for 40 days. Combine this with already high personal debt interest rates compared to previous 5 years and highest consumer debt amounts. Additionally, government contractors are curtailed at getting paid and doing work due to many of the government contracting rules in place. As @Collin Hays said brace for impact.
Historically, during the last major shutdown under Obama, that was designed by the executive branch to hurt, I was active duty and saw it first hand. Fear consumed military and civilian work forces. I have already seen it happening in my social circles. When fear creeps in, people do not spend.
The silver lining: all government workers will get back paid and their honey do list should be done since they had 6 weeks off (what most of my neighbors are doing). When they get back paid expect a bump in bookings as for some it will be like getting a tax return check and it will be burning a hole in their pocket.