Why Airbnb Listing Counts Are a Lagging Indicator (and What We Watch Instead)
Member since 2026 · 8 posts · 3 votes
Why Airbnb Listing Counts Are a Lagging Indicator (and What We Watch Instead)
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Member since 2022 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
8moI don't disagree with the methodology but that's not the main thing I look at. I compare how full the calendars are relative to the quality of the listings. If their calendars are well booked at a mid-to-high price and the quality of the finishes and furnishings is average, then I know there is room for solid profits if I go a few notches above that. Conversely, if the house looks amazing and the photos have good looking live models playing games and drinking by the pool, with sparsely filled calendar and competitive pricing, then I stay away. Joshua Tree is a perfect example of that.
Not to say that a wave of saturation could not follow a starting period of easy competition, although I find that there is always room for great even in a competitive environment. If you buy in at the right price then you can stay competitive when things get tough.
Also- high bedroom count homes are always a win. Just did a search of a market I'm currently renovating in and it goes from 1000+ to less than a dozen once you are at 10 or more people.
9 Replies
- 8moMike GrudzienPro MemberLender · Eugene, OR · Member since 2019 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
Thanks for the insight. Smart tip.
- Member since 2026 · 8 posts · 3 votes8mo
Quote from @Mike Grudzien:
Thanks for the insight. Smart tip.
Mike - appreciate that. We learned it the hard way in a couple markets where supply hit in waves and the “obvious” data showed up too late. If it’s useful, I’m happy to drop the simple checklist we use (mostly public breadcrumbs + a few quick sanity checks).
- Member since 2022 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes8mo
I don't disagree with the methodology but that's not the main thing I look at. I compare how full the calendars are relative to the quality of the listings. If their calendars are well booked at a mid-to-high price and the quality of the finishes and furnishings is average, then I know there is room for solid profits if I go a few notches above that. Conversely, if the house looks amazing and the photos have good looking live models playing games and drinking by the pool, with sparsely filled calendar and competitive pricing, then I stay away. Joshua Tree is a perfect example of that.
Not to say that a wave of saturation could not follow a starting period of easy competition, although I find that there is always room for great even in a competitive environment. If you buy in at the right price then you can stay competitive when things get tough.
Also- high bedroom count homes are always a win. Just did a search of a market I'm currently renovating in and it goes from 1000+ to less than a dozen once you are at 10 or more people.
- Member since 2026 · 8 posts · 3 votes8moJon - totally agree with you. Calendar density vs. listing quality is one of the best real-world signals out there (and Joshua Tree is the poster child for “great product, still soft demand”). We look at that too - we just add a “what’s about to enter the arena” layer so we don’t underwrite into a near-term supply wave that compresses ADR/occ before we can stabilize.
Quote from @Jon Martin:
I don't disagree with the methodology but that's not the main thing I look at. I compare how full the calendars are relative to the quality of the listings. If their calendars are well booked at a mid-to-high price and the quality of the finishes and furnishings is average, then I know there is room for solid profits if I go a few notches above that. Conversely, if the house looks amazing and the photos have good looking live models playing games and drinking by the pool, with sparsely filled calendar and competitive pricing, then I stay away. Joshua Tree is a perfect example of that.
Not to say that a wave of saturation could not follow a starting period of easy competition, although I find that there is always room for great even in a competitive environment. If you buy in at the right price then you can stay competitive when things get tough.
Also- high bedroom count homes are always a win. Just did a search of a market I'm currently renovating in and it goes from 1000+ to less than a dozen once you are at 10 or more people.
On the high-bedroom point: also agree. The demand curve gets weirdly favorable once you’re into true large-group inventory.
Curious how you do this practically:
Are you checking calendars manually on a handful of comps, or using a tool/workflow to normalize it?
And when you see “average finish + strong bookings,” how do you adjust for seasonality vs. genuine depth of demand?
If helpful, I can share the methodology we use to flag incoming supply (permits/regs + a couple proxy signals) and how we weight it in underwriting. - Member since 2022 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes8moI do it manually. I check the flexible weekend box and all the months. I start with 8 guests for my first search (I wont consider buying a property that sleeps <10) and scale up by 2 people with every search to get a feel for how well represented each head count is in an area.
Quote from @Bill Clark:
Jon - totally agree with you. Calendar density vs. listing quality is one of the best real-world signals out there (and Joshua Tree is the poster child for “great product, still soft demand”). We look at that too - we just add a “what’s about to enter the arena” layer so we don’t underwrite into a near-term supply wave that compresses ADR/occ before we can stabilize.Quote from @Jon Martin:
I don't disagree with the methodology but that's not the main thing I look at. I compare how full the calendars are relative to the quality of the listings. If their calendars are well booked at a mid-to-high price and the quality of the finishes and furnishings is average, then I know there is room for solid profits if I go a few notches above that. Conversely, if the house looks amazing and the photos have good looking live models playing games and drinking by the pool, with sparsely filled calendar and competitive pricing, then I stay away. Joshua Tree is a perfect example of that.
Not to say that a wave of saturation could not follow a starting period of easy competition, although I find that there is always room for great even in a competitive environment. If you buy in at the right price then you can stay competitive when things get tough.
Also- high bedroom count homes are always a win. Just did a search of a market I'm currently renovating in and it goes from 1000+ to less than a dozen once you are at 10 or more people.
On the high-bedroom point: also agree. The demand curve gets weirdly favorable once you’re into true large-group inventory.
Curious how you do this practically:
Are you checking calendars manually on a handful of comps, or using a tool/workflow to normalize it?
And when you see “average finish + strong bookings,” how do you adjust for seasonality vs. genuine depth of demand?
If helpful, I can share the methodology we use to flag incoming supply (permits/regs + a couple proxy signals) and how we weight it in underwriting.
Beyond that Im basically putting myself in the shoes of the guest and what would drive me to book one place over the other. I can usually get a sense of what amenities will really stand out and the general quality of the furnishings and finishes. Although like you said, you do have to do this in season or shortly before to really have a good idea of the potential. Also use AirDna to cross check, although that seems to miss a lot of properties.Your methodology sounds interesting, but I’m guessing that will vary by locality? One area I operate in doesn’t require permits or registration in county areas. Another market I’m in does, so I’m guessing I could call the county and find out ?
- Member since 2026 · 8 posts · 3 votes8mo
Quote from @Jon Martin:
I do it manually. I check the flexible weekend box and all the months. I start with 8 guests for my first search (I wont consider buying a property that sleeps <10) and scale up by 2 people with every search to get a feel for how well represented each head count is in an area.Quote from @Bill Clark:
Jon - totally agree with you. Calendar density vs. listing quality is one of the best real-world signals out there (and Joshua Tree is the poster child for “great product, still soft demand”). We look at that too - we just add a “what’s about to enter the arena” layer so we don’t underwrite into a near-term supply wave that compresses ADR/occ before we can stabilize.Quote from @Jon Martin:
I don't disagree with the methodology but that's not the main thing I look at. I compare how full the calendars are relative to the quality of the listings. If their calendars are well booked at a mid-to-high price and the quality of the finishes and furnishings is average, then I know there is room for solid profits if I go a few notches above that. Conversely, if the house looks amazing and the photos have good looking live models playing games and drinking by the pool, with sparsely filled calendar and competitive pricing, then I stay away. Joshua Tree is a perfect example of that.
Not to say that a wave of saturation could not follow a starting period of easy competition, although I find that there is always room for great even in a competitive environment. If you buy in at the right price then you can stay competitive when things get tough.
Also- high bedroom count homes are always a win. Just did a search of a market I'm currently renovating in and it goes from 1000+ to less than a dozen once you are at 10 or more people.
On the high-bedroom point: also agree. The demand curve gets weirdly favorable once you’re into true large-group inventory.
Curious how you do this practically:
Are you checking calendars manually on a handful of comps, or using a tool/workflow to normalize it?
And when you see “average finish + strong bookings,” how do you adjust for seasonality vs. genuine depth of demand?
If helpful, I can share the methodology we use to flag incoming supply (permits/regs + a couple proxy signals) and how we weight it in underwriting.
Beyond that Im basically putting myself in the shoes of the guest and what would drive me to book one place over the other. I can usually get a sense of what amenities will really stand out and the general quality of the furnishings and finishes. Although like you said, you do have to do this in season or shortly before to really have a good idea of the potential. Also use AirDna to cross check, although that seems to miss a lot of properties.Your methodology sounds interesting, but I’m guessing that will vary by locality? One area I operate in doesn’t require permits or registration in county areas. Another market I’m in does, so I’m guessing I could call the county and find out ?
Yeah, it definitely varies by market, sometimes a lot. That's why we don't lean on any one signal. In places without permits or registration, we've had to get a little scrappier. We look for things like clusters of remodel or septic permits, new utility hookups, HOA chatter in resort style communities, and even what local cleaners or vendors are seeing. None of those are perfect on their own, but when a few of them start pointing the same way, it's usually real supply coming online before it ever shows up in listings.
In permit heavy markets, calling or emailing the county actually works more often than people expect. Some are tight lipped, but others will share monthly or quarterly counts, which is plenty directional. And like you said, the manual calendar checks are still hugely valuable, especially in season. When bigger headcount homes suddenly have way more availability than you would expect, that’s often the first real sign of pressure.
If it’s helpful, I’m happy to share the actual data points and sources we track by market and how we pull them together. Just let me know.
- Rental Property Investor · Member since 2025 · 85 posts · 35 votes8mo
Just to mention - a dense calendar itself does not always mean bookings as owners can block dates for themself and/or for maintenance. More precise measurement is a dynamic of change. That's how I extract the comps revenue.
- 8moAndrew SteffensBusiness MemberTampa, FL · Member since 2022 · 3k+ posts · 3k+ votes
Since I am a PM as well as sales broker I have a general finger on the pulse of my market. I imagine if I was going into a new market I would need to rely on more actual metrics and indicators. The best path of success (which is subjective) is choosing a well located property and doing everything else right, such as a professional design, photos, and adding of amenities. The top listings in every market are hardly struggling.
Vacation Rentals of Florida53 Reviews- Member since 2026 · 8 posts · 3 votes8mo
Quote from @Andrew Steffens:
Since I am a PM as well as sales broker I have a general finger on the pulse of my market. I imagine if I was going into a new market I would need to rely on more actual metrics and indicators. The best path of success (which is subjective) is choosing a well located property and doing everything else right, such as a professional design, photos, and adding of amenities. The top listings in every market are hardly struggling.
Totally agree with you. If you’re operating day to day in a market as a PM, that on the ground intuition is hard to beat and probably better than any dashboard. Where we’ve found the extra metrics matter most is exactly what you said, when you’re underwriting a new market and don’t yet have that gut feel.
I also agree that great properties tend to win regardless. Location, design, photos, and the right amenities do a lot of the heavy lifting, and the top tier listings almost always stay busy. Where we get cautious is when a market looks healthy on averages, but a wave of new supply is about to hit. In those cases even strong homes still perform, but the margin for error gets thinner and mediocre inventory gets punished fast.
So for us it’s less about replacing good execution and more about avoiding markets where the odds are quietly shifting against you before it shows up in the rankings.
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