SMOKIES REPORT: Demand 2025 numbers

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SMOKIES REPORT: Demand 2025 numbers

Collin HaysBusiness Member
Property Manager · Gatlinburg, TN · Member since 2020 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes

Most of the listings I see on MLS in the Smokies are still bragging about 2024 rental numbers. The properties are then priced at a multiple of the 2024 rents. Why are they not mentioning 2025 numbers? Because 2025 stunk.  I visited with Darlene Derosia yesterday.  She's one of the most knowledgeable realtors in the Smokies, working there for over 25 years.  

Darlene:  "EVERYONE was down in 2025.  It was a bad year."

So, if you are looking at properties in the Smokies, it is great the sellers are sharing with you what the annual rents are.  But what they were in 2024 is irrelevant.  Get the 2025 numbers and then apply a multiple to that.  

Cheers!

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JD MartinBusiness Member
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Rock Star Extraordinaire · Northeast, TN · Member since 2015 · 10k+ posts · 17k+ votes
9mo

I read in my local paper that visitation for 2025 was down 700k visitors. That's a pretty hefty drop off and a lot of nights not booked. I'd also be curious how many visitors were "one and dones" and didn't generate much at all in the way of nightly stay income. People like me, for example, can spend the day in Gatlinburg and be home sleeping in my own bed comfortably. That obviously doesn't work for someone coming from Atlanta or Nashville but I know our (my family) day trips into PFSG have fallen way off the last few years. 

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  • JD MartinBusiness Member
    Moderator
    Rock Star Extraordinaire · Northeast, TN · Member since 2015 · 10k+ posts · 17k+ votes
    9mo

    I read in my local paper that visitation for 2025 was down 700k visitors. That's a pretty hefty drop off and a lot of nights not booked. I'd also be curious how many visitors were "one and dones" and didn't generate much at all in the way of nightly stay income. People like me, for example, can spend the day in Gatlinburg and be home sleeping in my own bed comfortably. That obviously doesn't work for someone coming from Atlanta or Nashville but I know our (my family) day trips into PFSG have fallen way off the last few years. 

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    • Collin HaysBusiness Member
      OP
      Property Manager · Gatlinburg, TN · Member since 2020 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes
      9mo
      Quote from @JD Martin:

      I read in my local paper that visitation for 2025 was down 700k visitors. That's a pretty hefty drop off and a lot of nights not booked. I'd also be curious how many visitors were "one and dones" and didn't generate much at all in the way of nightly stay income. People like me, for example, can spend the day in Gatlinburg and be home sleeping in my own bed comfortably. That obviously doesn't work for someone coming from Atlanta or Nashville but I know our (my family) day trips into PFSG have fallen way off the last few years. 

      We are inverse from 2020, which was way too few properties and way higher demand.

      Now, we have decreased demand and way too many properties.

      That said, there are some deals to be had in the Smokies these days!

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    • JD MartinBusiness Member
      Moderator
      Rock Star Extraordinaire · Northeast, TN · Member since 2015 · 10k+ posts · 17k+ votes
      9mo
      Quote from @Collin Hays:
      Quote from @JD Martin:

      I read in my local paper that visitation for 2025 was down 700k visitors. That's a pretty hefty drop off and a lot of nights not booked. I'd also be curious how many visitors were "one and dones" and didn't generate much at all in the way of nightly stay income. People like me, for example, can spend the day in Gatlinburg and be home sleeping in my own bed comfortably. That obviously doesn't work for someone coming from Atlanta or Nashville but I know our (my family) day trips into PFSG have fallen way off the last few years. 

      We are inverse from 2020, which was way too few properties and way higher demand.

      Now, we have decreased demand and way too many properties.



       Same thing I'm dealing with on my property in Four Corners. Ridiculous amount of inventory, low level of visitors. 

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    • Collin HaysBusiness Member
      OP
      Property Manager · Gatlinburg, TN · Member since 2020 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes
      9mo
      Quote from @JD Martin:
      Quote from @Collin Hays:
      Quote from @JD Martin:

      I read in my local paper that visitation for 2025 was down 700k visitors. That's a pretty hefty drop off and a lot of nights not booked. I'd also be curious how many visitors were "one and dones" and didn't generate much at all in the way of nightly stay income. People like me, for example, can spend the day in Gatlinburg and be home sleeping in my own bed comfortably. That obviously doesn't work for someone coming from Atlanta or Nashville but I know our (my family) day trips into PFSG have fallen way off the last few years. 

      We are inverse from 2020, which was way too few properties and way higher demand.

      Now, we have decreased demand and way too many properties.



       Same thing I'm dealing with on my property in Four Corners. Ridiculous amount of inventory, low level of visitors. 

      Four corners as in NM, CO, UT, and AZ?
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    • JD MartinBusiness Member
      Moderator
      Rock Star Extraordinaire · Northeast, TN · Member since 2015 · 10k+ posts · 17k+ votes
      9mo
      Quote from @Collin Hays:
      Quote from @JD Martin:
      Quote from @Collin Hays:
      Quote from @JD Martin:

      I read in my local paper that visitation for 2025 was down 700k visitors. That's a pretty hefty drop off and a lot of nights not booked. I'd also be curious how many visitors were "one and dones" and didn't generate much at all in the way of nightly stay income. People like me, for example, can spend the day in Gatlinburg and be home sleeping in my own bed comfortably. That obviously doesn't work for someone coming from Atlanta or Nashville but I know our (my family) day trips into PFSG have fallen way off the last few years. 

      We are inverse from 2020, which was way too few properties and way higher demand.

      Now, we have decreased demand and way too many properties.



       Same thing I'm dealing with on my property in Four Corners. Ridiculous amount of inventory, low level of visitors. 

      Four corners as in NM, CO, UT, and AZ?
      No, Four Corners/Kissimmee (Disney) FL. I've got a house in 4 Corners that I rent out most of the year. Last 2 years bookings have been abysmal. Part of that is structural - I don't allow 2 night stays, for example, and I'm not willing to discount to $99 like a lot of the schleps around here (I'd rather be vacant) - but most of it is just a lack of traffic. My caretakers told me the other day all of their other properties had the same experiences last year, and the ones that did book a little better were mostly short-stay guests and there was considerably more wear/tear/cleaning work on those properties. 
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    • Mark Miles
      Rental Property Investor · Philadelphia, PA · Member since 2016 · 543 posts · 716 votes
      9mo
      Quote from @Collin Hays:
      Quote from @JD Martin:

      I read in my local paper that visitation for 2025 was down 700k visitors. That's a pretty hefty drop off and a lot of nights not booked. I'd also be curious how many visitors were "one and dones" and didn't generate much at all in the way of nightly stay income. People like me, for example, can spend the day in Gatlinburg and be home sleeping in my own bed comfortably. That obviously doesn't work for someone coming from Atlanta or Nashville but I know our (my family) day trips into PFSG have fallen way off the last few years. 

      We are inverse from 2020, which was way too few properties and way higher demand.

      Now, we have decreased demand and way too many properties.

      That said, there are some deals to be had in the Smokies these days!


       Sounds like the Poconos! Eternal state of having too many properties. Of course, to your point, that drives down home prices. And suckers in a lotta buyers at those low price points (many of whom later regret and sell within a few years)

      0Reply
    • JD MartinBusiness Member
      Moderator
      Rock Star Extraordinaire · Northeast, TN · Member since 2015 · 10k+ posts · 17k+ votes
      9mo
      Quote from @Mark Miles:
      Quote from @Collin Hays:
      Quote from @JD Martin:

      I read in my local paper that visitation for 2025 was down 700k visitors. That's a pretty hefty drop off and a lot of nights not booked. I'd also be curious how many visitors were "one and dones" and didn't generate much at all in the way of nightly stay income. People like me, for example, can spend the day in Gatlinburg and be home sleeping in my own bed comfortably. That obviously doesn't work for someone coming from Atlanta or Nashville but I know our (my family) day trips into PFSG have fallen way off the last few years. 

      We are inverse from 2020, which was way too few properties and way higher demand.

      Now, we have decreased demand and way too many properties.

      That said, there are some deals to be had in the Smokies these days!


       Sounds like the Poconos! Eternal state of having too many properties. Of course, to your point, that drives down home prices. And suckers in a lotta buyers at those low price points (many of whom later regret and sell within a few years)


       I spent a few years living in the Poconos as a kid late 70's early 80s, there were too many properties back then - I lived in a rental house that literally was the only occupied house on the entire street, and the ski crowd (there were virtually no summer guests back then) only were around for a few weekends in the winter. A lot of these same houses from back then have changed hands 20 times in the last 40/50 years, with the same structural rental issues. 

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  • Andrew SteffensBusiness Member
    Tampa, FL · Member since 2022 · 4k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    9mo

    They are valuing the property on a multiple of the rents to come up with value? I know that commercial real estate often the income directly affects price but at least here the residential real estate is valued off of comp sales not rents?

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    • Collin HaysBusiness Member
      OP
      Property Manager · Gatlinburg, TN · Member since 2020 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes
      9mo
      Quote from @Andrew Steffens:

      They are valuing the property on a multiple of the rents to come up with value? I know that commercial real estate often the income directly affects price but at least here the residential real estate is valued off of comp sales not rents?


       I would say that most prices are loosely linked to income.

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    • Jon Martin
      Member since 2022 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
      9mo
      Quote from @Andrew Steffens:

      They are valuing the property on a multiple of the rents to come up with value? I know that commercial real estate often the income directly affects price but at least here the residential real estate is valued off of comp sales not rents?

      I guess you can also list it at a price derived from rental estimates and maybe find a buyer.

      Whether the bank cares and appraises it accordingly is another matter. 

      0Reply
    • Dan H.Pro Member
      Investor · Poway, CA · Member since 2015 · 7k+ posts · 8k+ votes
      9mo
      Quote from @Jon Martin:
      Quote from @Andrew Steffens:

      They are valuing the property on a multiple of the rents to come up with value? I know that commercial real estate often the income directly affects price but at least here the residential real estate is valued off of comp sales not rents?

      I guess you can also list it at a price derived from rental estimates and maybe find a buyer.

      Whether the bank cares and appraises it accordingly is another matter. 


      In vacation markets where a large percentage of properties are STRs, the comps reflect the STR revenue and the STR revenue reflects the comps. Why would you expect anything else?

      0Reply
  • John UnderwoodPro Member
    Investor · Greer, SC · Member since 2014 · 13k+ posts · 17k+ votes
    9mo

    So if visitation was down 700k what was the cause for this? 

    Uncertain economy? Even though the numbers on the economy are really good.

    Something else?

    0Reply
    • Collin HaysBusiness Member
      OP
      Property Manager · Gatlinburg, TN · Member since 2020 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes
      9mo
      Quote from @John Underwood:

      So if visitation was down 700k what was the cause for this? 

      Uncertain economy? Even though the numbers on the economy are really good.

      Something else?


      For one, Interstate 40 to the east of Gatlinburg is a complete mess still (post flooding/hurricane), and it will be years before it is fully operational again.  

      Also, my sense is that discretionary income is a lot smaller than it has been historically, due to the inflation bug.

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    • John UnderwoodPro Member
      Investor · Greer, SC · Member since 2014 · 13k+ posts · 17k+ votes
      9mo
      Quote from @Collin Hays:
      Quote from @John Underwood:

      So if visitation was down 700k what was the cause for this? 

      Uncertain economy? Even though the numbers on the economy are really good.

      Something else?


      For one, Interstate 40 to the east of Gatlinburg is a complete mess still (post flooding/hurricane), and it will be years before it is fully operational again.  

      Also, my sense is that discretionary income is a lot smaller than it has been historically, due to the inflation bug.


       Forgot about I40. They said completion date is in 2028 for that road.

      0Reply
    • Collin HaysBusiness Member
      OP
      Property Manager · Gatlinburg, TN · Member since 2020 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes
      9mo
      Quote from @John Underwood:
      Quote from @Collin Hays:
      Quote from @John Underwood:

      So if visitation was down 700k what was the cause for this? 

      Uncertain economy? Even though the numbers on the economy are really good.

      Something else?


      For one, Interstate 40 to the east of Gatlinburg is a complete mess still (post flooding/hurricane), and it will be years before it is fully operational again.  

      Also, my sense is that discretionary income is a lot smaller than it has been historically, due to the inflation bug.


       Forgot about I40. They said completion date is in 2028 for that road.


       Yeah, that's a legit problem.

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      SMOKY MOUNTAIN FALLS INC.51 Review
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  • Bo SmithPro Member
    Hinton, WV · Member since 2026 · 1k+ posts · 375 votes
    9mo

    This is exactly why I stopped trusting seller-provided rental numbers without doing my own research. Most sellers cherry-pick their best months or years and conveniently forget about vacancy rates. The Smokies market shift is happening everywhere - what worked in 2022-2024 doesn't apply anymore. A question that most people need to ask themselves is "are you running your own rental comps or just taking the report's word for it?"

    2Reply
    • Collin HaysBusiness Member
      OP
      Property Manager · Gatlinburg, TN · Member since 2020 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes
      9mo
      Quote from @Bo Smith:

      This is exactly why I stopped trusting seller-provided rental numbers without doing my own research. Most sellers cherry-pick their best months or years and conveniently forget about vacancy rates. The Smokies market shift is happening everywhere - what worked in 2022-2024 doesn't apply anymore. A question that most people need to ask themselves is "are you running your own rental comps or just taking the report's word for it?"

      Sellers and realtors will tell you anything.
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  • Luka Milicevic
    Real Estate Agent · Nashville, TN · Member since 2015 · 2k+ posts · 2k+ votes
    8mo
    Quote from @Collin Hays:

    Most of the listings I see on MLS in the Smokies are still bragging about 2024 rental numbers. The properties are then priced at a multiple of the 2024 rents. Why are they not mentioning 2025 numbers? Because 2025 stunk.  I visited with Darlene Derosia yesterday.  She's one of the most knowledgeable realtors in the Smokies, working there for over 25 years.  

    Darlene:  "EVERYONE was down in 2025.  It was a bad year."

    So, if you are looking at properties in the Smokies, it is great the sellers are sharing with you what the annual rents are.  But what they were in 2024 is irrelevant.  Get the 2025 numbers and then apply a multiple to that.  

    Cheers!


     Exactly....

    The same is in my market of Nashville. 2023-2024 financials available...no one wanting to post about 2025. 

    The investors that are trying to sell their properties at 2023-2024 numbers and have them priced accordingly will be sitting for a long time. If you're realistic and price your property accordingly you can get it moved.

    1Reply
  • Andreas MuellerBusiness Member
    Real Estate Agent · Nashville, TN · Member since 2019 · 409 posts · 181 votes
    8mo

    Smokies is tough, highly saturated. But you can still do well. 

    Much like in Nashville. It is still highly profitable on the high end/10+ sleeper properties. 

    BUT.

    STR is highly professionalized now and if you don't treat it like a mini hotel, you will lose money. Only the A players/operators will win this game. Mediocre doesn't cut it.

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  • Matt Mertz
    Leander TX · Member since 2020 · 179 posts · 150 votes
    8mo

    Our experience with our 16 guest cabin.

    2022 - Went live.  Good income.  Very happy.

    2023 - Big boost.  Best year yet.

    2024 - Still great.  Little under 2023.

    2025 - Worst year.  Slightly less than 2022.

    2025 was our worst year in the Smokies after an amazing 2023 and 2024.  We made a couple of mistakes on the calendar, but undeniably trended down on income.

    We visit often and see an increase in competition.  The construction isn't stopping.  Reduced visitor count and increased inventory online doesn't make a good trend line.

    0Reply
    • Collin HaysBusiness Member
      OP
      Property Manager · Gatlinburg, TN · Member since 2020 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes
      8mo
      Quote from @Matt Mertz:

      Our experience with our 16 guest cabin.

      2022 - Went live.  Good income.  Very happy.

      2023 - Big boost.  Best year yet.

      2024 - Still great.  Little under 2023.

      2025 - Worst year.  Slightly less than 2022.

      2025 was our worst year in the Smokies after an amazing 2023 and 2024.  We made a couple of mistakes on the calendar, but undeniably trended down on income.

      We visit often and see an increase in competition.  The construction isn't stopping.  Reduced visitor count and increased inventory online doesn't make a good trend line.


       Yeah, for the average property, it's going to be really difficult.  

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  • Russell Hamerski
    Member since 2021 · 1 post · 0 votes
    8mo

    Surprised to see this, we had our best year in 2025 in the Smokies, +10% vs. 2024 on our 3 bedroom cabin that we rent as a 4 bedroom with some bunks in our game room - small view.

     That said, we made the decision to allow pets (and charge a fee) in late 2024 and attribute some of the boost in revenue to that. 

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    • Collin HaysBusiness Member
      OP
      Property Manager · Gatlinburg, TN · Member since 2020 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes
      8mo
      Quote from @Russell Hamerski:

      Surprised to see this, we had our best year in 2025 in the Smokies, +10% vs. 2024 on our 3 bedroom cabin that we rent as a 4 bedroom with some bunks in our game room - small view.

       That said, we made the decision to allow pets (and charge a fee) in late 2024 and attribute some of the boost in revenue to that. 


       I actually went back to "no pets" on my own properties in hopes that would boost revenue.  One of us is wrong!  ;)

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