REPORT FROM THE SMOKIES: We've reached the bottom

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REPORT FROM THE SMOKIES: We've reached the bottom

Collin HaysBusiness Member
Property Manager · Gatlinburg, TN · Member since 2020 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes

July is even with last year, and the remainder of the year and into 2027 is pacing ahead of last year.  It appears that the worm, heading downward for the last 5 years, has finally turned.  It is interesting, because gas remains comparatively high due to the geopolitical matters, but travelers seem to be shrugging it all off and planning vacations to the Smokies.

A breath of fresh air!  

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Mike GrudzienPro Member
Lender · Eugene, OR · Member since 2019 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
3mo

I'm not in a resort area, but I had a killer June and July.  But August is blank...
We have the weirdest ups and downs.

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  • John UnderwoodPro Member
    Investor · Greer, SC · Member since 2014 · 13k+ posts · 17k+ votes
    3mo

    We are seeing the same. June and July of this year has been great and those months are already booking for next year at our cabin.

    The Fall is looking great already.

    August is still slow but we have 3 good bookings for August and hopefully it will fill in more.

    2Reply
  • Ken Boone
    Investor · Greenville, SC · Member since 2015 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    3mo

    I had a pretty high July last year and we matched it this year. August right now is a little behind last year but I still have a number of open dates in August that are starting to fill in so I think we will match August as well.

    1Reply
  • Mike GrudzienPro Member
    Lender · Eugene, OR · Member since 2019 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    3mo

    I'm not in a resort area, but I had a killer June and July.  But August is blank...
    We have the weirdest ups and downs.

    4Reply
    • Jon Martin
      Member since 2022 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
      3mo
      Quote from @Mike Grudzien:

      I'm not in a resort area, but I had a killer June and July.  But August is blank...
      We have the weirdest ups and downs.


      August can be an awkward month (by summer standards). My calendar looks pretty good but the latter half tends to be more last minute. Too much in transition with kids going back to school, and people tend to want to take trips earlier in the summer. 

      I find that September and October always do better than August, which seems to be true about a lot of US markets. 

      0Reply
    • Trent Reeve
      Atlanta · Member since 2022 · 716 posts · 645 votes
      3mo
      Quote from @Mike Grudzien:

      I'm not in a resort area, but I had a killer June and July.  But August is blank...
      We have the weirdest ups and downs.


       same. in PCB market, june and july were outstanding. august, i have 1 property without an august booking , 3 that only have 1 booking. september i have 2 properties that dont have a booking at all. people are definitely continuing the trend of booking closer to their arrival date

      1Reply
  • Andrew SteffensBusiness Member
    Tampa, FL · Member since 2022 · 4k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    3mo

    I see similar in Tampa market, and agree with Trent that close in bookings continue trending.

    [email protected]813-563-0877
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  • Patricia Andriolo-Bull
    Member since 2022 · 529 posts · 413 votes
    3mo

    Interesting, I am not seeing the same but I am at the higher end in my beach market.  I am getting many very last minute bookings that seem to be making up for some of the loss but I am definitely a bit down from last year.  Very few bookings in August and nothing in the fall yet.

    0Reply
  • Angela Venger
    Member since 2026 · 47 posts · 21 votes
    3mo

    Good to hear, Collin. The one thing I'd check before calling it a turn is what rate the pacing is built on. My calendar can look full and still be a bad year if I filled it by dropping the rate. Last year was painful for me too, so instead of discounting I did some soft upgrades to my listings, and now I charge about 30% more than before and one property hit 100% occupancy this month. Occupancy pacing ahead is only good news if the ADR held.

    0Reply
  • Collin HaysBusiness Member
    OP
    Property Manager · Gatlinburg, TN · Member since 2020 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    3mo
    Quote from @Angela Venger:

    Good to hear, Collin. The one thing I'd check before calling it a turn is what rate the pacing is built on. My calendar can look full and still be a bad year if I filled it by dropping the rate. Last year was painful for me too, so instead of discounting I did some soft upgrades to my listings, and now I charge about 30% more than before and one property hit 100% occupancy this month. Occupancy pacing ahead is only good news if the ADR held.


    Rates holding up well. 

    [email protected]806-672-7102
    SMOKY MOUNTAIN FALLS INC.51 Review
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  • Matthew Tregoning
    Property Manager · Melbourne, FL · Member since 2019 · 468 posts · 173 votes
    1mo

    Pacing ahead sounds good. At what ADR and with how much inventory left? I would compare booked revenue, rate and lead time on the exact same date last year before calling bottom.

    0Reply
  • Collin HaysBusiness Member
    OP
    Property Manager · Gatlinburg, TN · Member since 2020 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    1mo

    September:

    Reserved nights up 3.7%

    ADR up 14.8%.

    [email protected]806-672-7102
    SMOKY MOUNTAIN FALLS INC.51 Review
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