REPORT FROM THE SMOKIES: The worm is turning

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REPORT FROM THE SMOKIES: The worm is turning

Collin HaysBusiness Member
Property Manager · Gatlinburg, TN · Member since 2020 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes

Our October thru December bookings are up about 15 percent year over year, and early 2027 is trending well ahead of 2026. Demand is up. Occupancies are not yet up, but Average Daily Rate certainly is.

I believe we finally are emerging from the COVID bubble bust.

[email protected]806-672-7102
SMOKY MOUNTAIN FALLS INC.51 Review
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  • Kent Morgan
    Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2018 · 16 posts · 3 votes
    8h

    Good to hear, Collin. ADR up while occupancy stays flat is an interesting mix. Is that mostly guests booking further out for the holidays and early 2027, or are you seeing fewer new cabins come online around Gatlinburg and Pigeon Forge than in the last couple of years?

    Also curious whether the lift is across the board or concentrated in certain cabin sizes. Owners in other markets keep asking when the post-COVID supply glut finally works through, so a read from someone who manages in the Smokies is useful.

    Disclosure: I own One Fine BnB, a vacation rental management company.

    (Drafted with AI help.)

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  • Collin HaysBusiness Member
    OP
    Property Manager · Gatlinburg, TN · Member since 2020 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    8h

    We aren't seeming much in the way of new inventory, which is a good thing, because there is already an oversupply. Advanced bookings are up, but that is misleading, because half of the reservations anymore end up cancelling. What it does show me is that increased demand is there.

    Large cabins are still struggling. There is an oversupply and demand is very soft.

    [email protected]806-672-7102
    SMOKY MOUNTAIN FALLS INC.51 Review
    WebsiteView Page
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  • Kent Morgan
    Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2018 · 16 posts · 3 votes
    6h

    Thanks Collin, that is useful. The cancellation rate is the part I would have missed. Are those mostly groups booking more than one cabin and dropping the extras once plans firm up, or more guests rebooking when they find a lower rate closer to the date?

    And has it pushed you toward stricter cancellation policies, or would that cost you too many bookings in the Smokies right now?

    (Drafted with AI help.)

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  • Collin HaysBusiness Member
    OP
    Property Manager · Gatlinburg, TN · Member since 2020 · 3k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    3h

    It's really hard to know Kent.

    The fundamental problems with large cabins are this:

    1. There is a huge oversupply now.

    2. A large cabin typically requires multiple families. Right now, I think it's hard to get the budgets of multiple families synced up for vacations. Money is tight.

    I do think that the generous cancellation policies of the OTAs are encouraging a "book now ask questions later" habit among travelers. We have many guests book, and then turn around and cancel a day or two later. But we are often backfilling these cancellations with reservations at higher rates.

    [email protected]806-672-7102
    SMOKY MOUNTAIN FALLS INC.51 Review
    WebsiteView Page
    0Reply
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