Investor · Hollywood/Ft Lauderdale, FL · Member since 2021 · 29 posts · 11 votes
Hi everyone,
We're looking at properties in South Florida for a possible STR. Tough market for sure, but we have time and wanted to be within driving distance for our first property. I'm trying to get data and looking for good sources.
AirDNA is telling me avg occupancy in Ft Lauderdale for STRs is 61%, but I'm kind of skeptical. Listings I see on Airbnb don't look even 30% booked after the season. AlltheRooms says 53% for FtL. I also found InsideAirbnb.com and their numbers are worse... 31% estimated occupancy. They have a negative stance on Airbnb though.
I'm sure the numbers are an average, but want to make sure I'm not missing anything. Have you guys found better sources or you do you just conservatively guesstimate based on AirDNA? Any help would be appreciated. Thanks.
Investor · New York, NY · Member since 2019 · 91 posts · 92 votes
5y
@Sofia Sharkey
I’ve also found AirDNA to be inaccurate. One important item to know is many of these websites ‘scrape’ data from Airbnn, VRBO, etc using automated program. The analysis is inherently inaccurate for many of the reasons others have stated and I won’t repeat. We’ve found two solutions - 1) find local operators and ask how their properties are performing. You’ll be surprised at how people are willing to help and 2) find a data provider that using ‘first party data’ to generate rental estimates. Keydata provides this service. It’s more expensive but I’ve found it to be much more accurate.
Rental Property Investor · Hot Springs, AR · Member since 2017 · 37 posts · 23 votes
5y
Bookings in urban cities (Miami) are still down since Covid. Ft Lauderdale might be included in that group bc its so close to Miami.
That’s the big question though: will bookings return to normal? Bookings are actually up in many smaller, rural or non urban markets by way of comparison. Personally I think bookings will return to normal once we are done with covid. But when will that be? It could be this year or next year or the year after that.
I would say to just plan accordingly if you want to buy in Ft Lauderdale for STR use. Use very conservative booking revenue numbers/forecasts. Just plan for worst case scenario 1-2 years of mediocre STR bookings and if you can survive this you'll probably do well.
You’ve already down the best research you can do- Air DNA plus just looking at the calendars of current Air Bnb listings in your desired area. You might go one step further and contact a current Airbnb owner in your desired area and ask them about it.
Olympia, WA · Member since 2016 · 8k+ posts · 7k+ votes
5y
Hey @Barbara Chaney, if anything, your research shows the flaws of all the software out there that predict nightly occupancy and rates. If they are all pulling the same data, that is a large discrepancy between those services.
Your gut check to look at the calendars on your own will give you the best numbers. They are real. Figure out your budget then compare what you are buying with all the similar places on AirBNB and VRBO.
That is what we did and it has been great. AirDNA showed our nightly rate at 3x what it should have been. Our occupancy is up over AirDNA numbers as well starting in year 3.
Investor · Hollywood/Ft Lauderdale, FL · Member since 2021 · 29 posts · 11 votes
5y
Thanks @Dan Johnson. Yeah, we'll be super conservative with numbers. I'm sure bookings are still bad with Covid, so we're taking our time to look for something that makes sense. Just wondered if I'm missing any good sources. Contacting another host is a good idea, thanks.
Investor · Hollywood/Ft Lauderdale, FL · Member since 2021 · 29 posts · 11 votes
5y
Hi @Michael Baum, interesting to hear your numbers are so different from AirDNA's. None of these tools are perfect, so I guess I'll just keep looking at calendars on local listings. Forget to check VRBO too, thanks.
Bethel, PA · Member since 2014 · 32 posts · 9 votes
5y
I don't think the calendars tell the whole story. I was looking in my area of interest on airbnb to see if I could figure out why some calendars have so many months blocked out. I emailed a few hosts to see why. A couple of things: one host said they only book one month in advance because of covid...so for this one you can not get a good number. Also, hosts block out the dates that they are going to use the rental. It might also not get used in the winter due to weather. Some people rent it out only half of the year because they live there the other 6 months. Just not sure looking at the calendars helps to see true occupancy rate.
Olympia, WA · Member since 2016 · 8k+ posts · 7k+ votes
5y
Hey @Barbara Chaney, like @Becky Haag says, nothing is perfect but here is what I think about those algorithms.
What they do is use the data they have to come up with numbers. Often times they pull data from what they think are comps, but are really outliers.
For example, in our area, there aren't a ton of vacation rentals down the lake where we are at. It is split between the traditional Idaho lake cottage built in 1910. 800sqft with 2 bed and a bath. Then there are places that were built in 2010, 10 bedrooms, 12 baths in 8500sqft. Are these comparable properties as far as nightly rate goes? Nope.
Our home is 2700sqft 3/3 with a kids bunkroom (essentially a 4th bedroom). 2 decks right on Lake Coeur d'Alene (well across the road) with a beach and right on the 72 mile bike trail.
What was happening is that our property was getting lumped in with the 8500sqft place which rents for $2500+ a night. It's calendar is full almost all year long. It is probably a 8 million dollar property. With that and others being included, it pushed our nightly rate to $900 a night. That wasn't close to what I calculated for the nightly rate using my research.
I will say that now we are probably under on nightly as we are full for our season right now. We will get more fall bookings as spring and summer progresses so I will be raising our rate for 2022.
Now if you are in an area with 3000+ rentals, you will get a better cross-section of data. That will make the numbers more accurate. Also, I haven't tried the service in 3 years so maybe they have made adjustments to account for outliers (both over and under).
But with your results from 3 different services being so different, I don't think so.
Investor · Hollywood/Ft Lauderdale, FL · Member since 2021 · 29 posts · 11 votes
5y
@Michael Baum Yes, I'm sure that's a factor here too with expensive properties skewing the numbers. It seems like these tools default to matching by the # of bedrooms, which isn't great either. Thanks for your input. Your home on Lake Coeur d'Alene sounds nice.
I have a STR rental in Portland, OR (+2 more on the way in other areas) and we've been full despite COVID. We average just 1 night of vacancy per month. This particular unit is a 1 bd and sleeps 4 (with sofa bed), so your experience may vary depending on the size of your property.
From what I've heard FL is much more open than OR and I'd expect there are plenty of people who are looking for some sunshine.
One thing I'd caution you when looking at other calendars is that most of our bookings happen about 30 days out. So you may see wide open calendars for the summer, but they will fill up as we get closer to those dates. You obviously have some seasonality, but use the next 30 days as a gauge for demand since I don't think right now would be considered peak season in your area.
From some testing that I've done on Airbnb in Portland, there is always a rate that will get you booked with near 100% occupancy. If that rate is acceptable to you...is up to you.
Property Manager · Kansas City, MO · Member since 2018 · 280 posts · 221 votes
5y
@Barbara Chaney the issue with Airdna is that it works with averages and many people use these houses as their second homes. They block the calendars for their own stays or sometimes are newbies figuring out the pricing and systems so they may not be booked. Those things skew the numbers on Airdna. Check out the Airbnb profiles of popular STR management companies in the area you're interested in. If not management companies, look for hosts who have 10+ units. Those accounts are managed by seasoned people and the calendars will be more accurate - after you get a general idea, you can look at your immediate area and compare.
Another thing to keep in mind is cash flow vs occupancy. Many people aim to stay booked and lower the prices too much, that attracts unwanted guests. Figure out the range that makes sense for you and know that great cash flow doesn’t always mean 99% occupancy.
Investor · New York, NY · Member since 2019 · 91 posts · 92 votes
5y
@Sofia Sharkey
I’ve also found AirDNA to be inaccurate. One important item to know is many of these websites ‘scrape’ data from Airbnn, VRBO, etc using automated program. The analysis is inherently inaccurate for many of the reasons others have stated and I won’t repeat. We’ve found two solutions - 1) find local operators and ask how their properties are performing. You’ll be surprised at how people are willing to help and 2) find a data provider that using ‘first party data’ to generate rental estimates. Keydata provides this service. It’s more expensive but I’ve found it to be much more accurate.
Real Estate Broker | Investor | Property Manager · Plantation, FL · Member since 2015 · 228 posts · 68 votes
5y
@Barbara Chaney
The first lauderdale area also has little variations whether it's the South Side, near Wilton Manors, Pompano, etc. Would love to discuss further in greater detail.
Investor · Hollywood/Ft Lauderdale, FL · Member since 2021 · 29 posts · 11 votes
5y
Thanks for the tips @Sofia Sharkey, @Max Lock and @Michael C.! Appreciate the offer @Kevin Kohler. My husband used to be a broker and has kept up his license, so we're pretty good in that area. Just trying to find something in a crazy market, lol.