What’s Driving California’s Mass Exodus?

What’s Driving California’s Mass Exodus?

Rental Property Investor · Northern, CA · Member since 2012 · 5k+ posts · 5k+ votes

Just watched this fascinating and well-done story by CNBC on "What’s Driving California’s Mass Exodus?"

Now, I live and invest in California, so I'm definitely not a California hater.  However, I'm also no California fanboy.  I'm actually pretty open-minded and enjoy listening to something like this to perhaps get a different perspective.

There are certainly benefits to investing in California.  Like I said, I do it and I do quite well by doing so.  However, there's also no arguing there are downsides to doing business here.  

We have the #1 highest state income tax in the entire country!  It's also very business unfriendly here.  According to a CNBC study (mentioned in the story), we are ranked DEAD LAST in the country when it comes to the cost of doing business.

This is probably the reason we've actually been seeing a net migration LOSS of residents in this state to other states.  Not to mention the thousands of companies that have left (or are leaving) the state, including big name companies like Hewlett Packard (moving to Houston), Oracle (moving to Austin), and Tesla (Elon and the next Gigafactory will be in Austin).  

(Anyone see a theme there with Texas?)

Anyway, not trying to convince anyone of anything.  Except perhaps our state legislators better wake up if they want to stop this mass exodus.  Unfortunately, I'm not sure they get it yet.  At least the laws that continue to be proposed and passed in this state don't seem to signal (to me) that they do.

Thoughts?

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Investor · Dallas, TX · Member since 2017 · 31 posts · 51 votes
5y

No surprises here at all.  Even more a 🤔, is the fact that CA voters vote the same way each election cycle. SMH

See this reply in the discussion

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  • Flipper/Rehabber · Saratoga, CA · Member since 2015 · 49 posts · 16 votes
    5y
    Originally posted by @Account Closed:
    Originally posted by @Cody L.:

    I live in California (San Diego) and love it.  But I'm fortunate to just live here and not have a business here.  Here are the pros/cons:

    PROS:
    Weather / natural beauty

    CONS:
    Everything else.

    There is NO WAY I'd ever think about trying to build a business here (rental or otherwise).  Or if I was a high earning 9-5 person I'd do everything I could to get out.   how California has any billionaires (or 8 figure millionaires) that allow themselves to get brutalized by taxes is beyond me.   And who, when thinking about where to open a new business, would possibly think "California!  It's so business friendly!" 

    When people ask me about buying apartments in California I say "They may not offer much of a return, but at least the laws are tenant friendly"

    People reply "Oh I see... wait, what?"

     As a tenant of 18 year in Los Angeles, I'd even have to disagree about the tenant friendly part. From a tenants experience, HCIDLA will drag their heels and take the path of least resistance when you bring them a complaint. Landlord files a bogus owner-occupy eviction? "Oh, we'd really like to help, but-". There's always a but if it means they have to lift a pencil. Total bureaucracy.

    Not to mention staff who have workers who will openly verbalize their blatant pro-landlord opinions while ironically being empoyed in a rent stabilization organization. HCIDLA is headed by a woman named Marsella DeShurley, who if you can manage to reach her, will take about 5 min to expose her sympathy for "poor landlords who bought buildings and didn't know the laws". Not to mention the full blown corruption that is CalTrans- they are the only landlords I know of who are allowed to hike rents 10% every 6 months (their rental houses being  taken by eminent domain in Pasadena, no less).

    I'd say California is both anti-landlord and anti-tenant. 

     Wow! That's very insightful. I have not thought about it from that perspective. There's definitely a lot of bureaucracy and regulations in CA that slows down processes from permitting to court actions. I have only seen it as a negative for owners, but you have put a different perspective for me to digest and think about. Thanks for the insight!

    -Sonny

  • Investor · California, CA · Member since 2016 · 367 posts · 375 votes
    5y

    The media always over simplifies every story.  The fact is there is net out-migration, more people leaving that arriving.  Almost everyone I know in my age group, mid-late 50's, has either already moved out, or is seriously considering it. I am.  High cost of living, taxes, terrible government, rampant homelessness, bad schools, insane traffic (pre COVID).  Woke-ism at an extreme, affecting real estate investing, and it will only get worse. 

    If you've been here a long time, makes sense to sell your house for $1.5M and buy something really nice for $500k in a place where there are low, or no taxes, lower cost of living, to maximize cash for retirement.  

    But it's not so easy if all your family & friends are here, weather is unbeatable, so much natural beauty and things to do.  In the mean-time there are lots of high paying job, which attract people from all over the world.  They will keep coming.  I hire Engineers, I tell the younger ones, it's not worth it here, stay where you are.  $130k sounds like a lot, but doesn't go too far when rent is $3-4K.  They still come anyway.  With the pandemic, some of them decided to go back to where they came from, wanting to buy a house and have kids.  Nothing here in silicon valley for under a $million. Unless your company stock has skyrocketed, they will never be able to buy a house.  They eventually figure this out and move.  Or stay because so many high paying job, they think they will eventually make enough to live here, some will, some won't.  

    The point is the answer is different for everyone. It's not so simple.  But the fact remains, more people are leaving than arriving and I understand why they leave.  

  • Member since 2020 · 437 posts · 675 votes
    5y

    I don’t dispute the stance on taxes. That is an outcome of rampant financial mismanagement and those in office need to be held accountable. I however don’t get the rant on cost of living. Yes it’s high but for good reason. You can never make the COL equation work if you compare CA with most other US states but if you compare an SF or LA to say NYC or Paris or London or Tokyo, your numbers will not look so bad after all. I am not sure what people expect that they want to be in a high earning economy but want low cost of living! It will be a tough equation to work out. Again not disputing the taxes. That’s just criminal and I hope the present government is recalled or defeated in the next election.

  • Investor · California, CA · Member since 2016 · 367 posts · 375 votes
    5y

    Part of the problem is the annual propositions.  The populous votes to spend money every year, they often have no idea that taxes will have to go up to pay it back.  Prop 122:  everyone gets a free puppy and a Ferrari, yay sounds great, all the dum dums vote for it.  "The Rich" will pay for it.  Years and years of this insanity.

    @Justin Thorpe  People aren't comparing COL to NYC or Tokyo, they are comparing to Boise, Reno, Dallas, Orlando

  • Rental Property Investor · Broken Arrow, OK · Member since 2017 · 8 posts · 3 votes
    5y

    California residents that are multi millionaires live in cali and have a residence in TX.  No state income.  Saves quite a lot.  

  • Joe SplitrockPro Member
    Moderator
    Rental Property Investor · Sioux Falls, SD · Member since 2015 · 9k+ posts · 18k+ votes
    5y

    @Kyle J.  I think of the old Eagles song, Last Resort. Written about migration to California, the last line describes it well, "You call someplace paradise, kiss it goodbye". The sad reality is that people ruin places. 

    Sorry we are not taking more CA refugees in my state... (that last part was a joke)

  • Investor · Saint Paul, MN · Member since 2015 · 663 posts · 512 votes
    5y

    @Kyle J.

    I left California in 1995 because I couldn’t find a good enough paying job and expenses were so high. I loved California itself, I just don’t agree with their politics or tax issues. 

  • Member since 2019 · 332 posts · 171 votes
    5y
    Originally posted by @Kellie Davis:

    @Tushar P. thank you! I get to keep my California job and move elsewhere. I’m not relocating for a new position with a local brand. It’s the beauty of remote work. 

    I wasn’t assuming a new job either. My understanding was that companies would allow remote working outside California but apply cost of living adjustment. Someone earning $450k/yr in California would not keep earning $450k/yr if they relocated to Houston and started working remotely from there. They would earn much less. And how efficient is it to make the (high paying) critical jobs virtual is another consideration for the companies. Many regular functions (hr, payroll, finance, etc) are already outsourced to Mexico, Ireland, Poland, Philippines, etc.

    By the way, those who are priced out of California are still fairly rich for Texas or Florida. I’ve heard builders/turnkeys have projects specifically designed for California residents. Locals in these places will not touch such properties/investments as they are overpriced for their market, but California residents (who are priced out in California) are still rich enough to go for such properties.

  • Ben HowardPro Member
    Real Estate Agent · El Dorado Hills, CA · Member since 2017 · 160 posts · 67 votes
    5y

    @Kyle J.

    Last year 653,551 residents left the state according to the American Community Survey.

    Last year in 2019 there were 480,204 people who moved to California.

    http://sacramentoappraisalblog.com/2020/12/08/goodbye-california-is-everyone-leaving/

  • Investor · Hawaiian Gardens, CA · Member since 2015 · 308 posts · 386 votes
    5y

    Traffic is at its best for as long as I can remember, I hope this exodus keeps going strong! 

  • New to Real Estate · Denver · Member since 2020 · 75 posts · 81 votes
    5y

    Unfortunately once they move they still keep voting like they did in California. 
    Texas will become blue here soon, once they start coming and voting it’s a down hill spiral.  I don’t get it, you left because taxes are high, everything is over regulated so STOP voting your new state into a little California. You left for a reason, because the new place was not like the old place. 

    As an example: Colorado just voted to repealed the Gallagher amendment which kept our property taxes really low, one of the lowest in the country (One of the only benefits Colorado had over Texas)   They estimate the average house in Denver property taxes will go up by $2,000 THIS year alone. I don’t think most people have realized what has happened yet, but once tax bills are sent out it will be a BIG deal. 

    Yes California plates and Tesla’s everywhere. 

  • Dan H.Pro Member
    Investor · Poway, CA · Member since 2015 · 7k+ posts · 8k+ votes
    5y
    Originally posted by @Brian Ploszay:

    Since this is a real estate forum, I would like to add that expensive real estate prices is a main factor for the California exodus.   My connections to California are deep, and I was from Southern California.

    The prices of housing are too expensive.  How did we get there?   30 years of population growth not met by expansion of the housing stock.  In other words, it is difficult to build new construction in California.  It was ranked as the hardest state.

    The human costs of this are huge.  It is the reason for the large homeless population.  It is the reason for the large poverty rate.  And it is a major factor in the exodus.  

    State leaders, to some extent, understand this.  And are promoting more density housing.  But NIMBY (Not in my back yard) movements stall this.  Plus the enormous regulations and zoning issues.  

    A great article in the magazine the Economist, stated that California's housing issues have caused its economy to lose money.  That is more true than ever as companies, along with people, are fleeing the State.

    > stated that California's housing issues have caused its economy to lose money.

    But if CA was a country it would have 5th highest GDP in the world.  It is nearly double the 2nd highest state.  Imagine what It could be if the economy had not lost money (sarcasm). 

    My view is too many people want to live in coastal CA, even with the prices so high.   How dense is too dense?   Apparently the housing is not expensive enough in coastal CA as the high prices have not lowered the density.  The US has a lot of low density areas, but people want to live in coastal Ca even when they cannot afford it.   

    It should not be cheap to live where so many people strive to live.  Imagine if it was less expensive how crowded it could be.  

  • Member since 2020 · 437 posts · 675 votes
    5y

    I think this is a “Goldilocks” period where many will make a quick buck and be happy.

    1) Publishers of “click bait” articles on CA exodus will get a lot of clicks. Lots of ad revenue as it is a popular hot topic.

    2) Realtors and property owners in states which are seeing migration from CA. It’s boom time for them.

    3) People who are staying put in CA. This crowd is happy as punch. Traffic is better. Local economy is booming. Home prices are going through the roof and rents are coming down. Local job market is crazy hot and salaries are growing at double digits. IPO wealth is everywhere. Kewl!

    I think the end/containment of Covid whenever that happens will put an end to this Goldilocks period. But for now the part continues.

  • Investor · Millburn, NJ · Member since 2018 · 141 posts · 100 votes
    5y

    @Kyle J.

    We packed our bags when my son was about 10 months old and learned to walk. One day he was finding needles on the street and almost attempted to pick them up. I knew I didn’t want to raise him there then.

    Not to mention our packages always got stolen on the porch before we came home from work.

    The crime and pee and poops were disgusting and we lived in an expensive neighborhood and paid insane amount of taxes.

    Now we are in NJ, which also has high taxes and bad government. But we get our packages and often times forget to lock our doors, and def no pees and poops. Once you have lived in CA, you realize you only miss it in the winter. (And we head down to Fl)

  • Colleen F.Pro Member
    Investor · Narragansett, RI · Member since 2013 · 8k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    5y

    Cost of Living, Housing, and Taxes.  California Income Tax Brackets 2020 (tax-brackets.org)   At a living wage for California cost of living,  taxes are comparatively high compared to most other states. I think people leave when the state doesn't suit their needs. They cash out on their real estate and spend money elsewhere. I would be curious to see the in-migration income levels. Its a nice climate and I always thought walking down the street in warmer climates that your homeless population is higher because its easier to be homeless in warmer climates then the snow belt. I also think people come for college or a high tech job and out-migrate if the job lets them. 

    It won't be forever that California wages will carry to other states for remote workers and people who are getting that perk now are in a sweet spot. Companies will figure out they are overpaying for talent and the travel costs will figure in. Also I don't see a huge outflux in tech workers because at some level remote work costs promotions/opportunity and career climbers won't sacrifice that.  On the other hand if companies leave it is another story. 

  • Rental Property Investor · Gulf Shores, AL · Member since 2019 · 107 posts · 115 votes
    5y

    @Kyle J.

    I don’t know a person in real life that would want to live or invest in California.

    Maybe a visit but it doesn’t make sense for anything else. Cost of living, cost of doing business, politics, traffic, liberal extremism, crime, etc.

    I felt different 20 years ago but it has changed a lot in that time frame.

  • Member since 2020 · 437 posts · 675 votes
    5y

    @Joanne Tsai

    I lived in NYC and I couldn’t stand the frequent thunderstorms in the summer. Not sure why NJ would be different.

  • Investor · Chicago, IL · Member since 2009 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    5y

    @Dan Heuschele    Kudos to California's economy.  Indeed it is an economic powerhouse.  But people are leaving, so we're trying to figure out why.  And it is housing.

    ==Too many people want to live in Coastal California==   True, but my parent's house is in Pasadena which is 21 miles away from the nearest beach.  Inland California is pricey too.

    When I use the word "density,"  I mean the number of units on a particular parcel of land.  Manhattan is super high density.  California could be much higher density if zoning allowed it.  Santa Monica would be pure mid rise and high rise buildings if they could be built.  Yes, people would continue to come.

    Southern California is a major world metropolis.  And a very horizontal one.  They call it sprawl.  High prices are a factor of supply and demand.  When there is perpetual low supply, the prices are high.  That's California.  

    California has the lowest amount of units per capita in America.  Equalized to an average, California is short 2 million units.  Density housing, is the only way.  There is not enough land.

    That ain't gonna happen, so the state is having an exodus of people.  I don't think it is a major loss, but for a State that has a good economy, it should be the opposite.

  • Investor · Millburn, NJ · Member since 2018 · 141 posts · 100 votes
    5y

    @Justin Thorpe

    No place is perfect. U get over the thunderstorm in an hour or two but not the crimes and homeless.....

    And the shore is nice here in the summer, we lived in the Bay Area, the water there is just too cold even in the summer.

    Again, taxes here is insane too, but our school is open and teachers seem to be more diligent too.

  • Member since 2020 · 437 posts · 675 votes
    5y

    @Joanne Tsai

    With utmost respect, are you not comparing life in a city with that of a suburb. I live in an expensive suburb here in the Bay Area and I have not seen any theft of packaged much less needles and poop. Of course there are pockets in SF (Tenderloin, Parts of Market street/Civic center) where you may run into those issues but not everywhere.

  • Investor · Millburn, NJ · Member since 2018 · 141 posts · 100 votes
    5y

    @Justin Thorpe

    No, we lived in Albany, which is pretty expensive and has one of the best schools in east bay. And given it’s walkable from Berkeley, people’s houses and cars do get broken in. Main Street is not uncommon to see homeless and needles.

    Def not as bad as Berkeley, but why would anyone want to pay and live in a million dollar home and be surrounded by all these type of problems?

  • Contractor · Waukesha & Milwaukee County · Member since 2021 · 8 posts · 3 votes
    5y

    @Kyle J. I find it so petty that media, society, etc fails to notice real issues unless an Elon musk video announcement is aired to start conversations like this.

    Anyone else feel the same way???

  • New to Real Estate · CA · Member since 2020 · 15 posts · 3 votes
    5y

    @Mary Gafner I would assume because much of the business is still actually here and still in the exodus trend. Also, before Covid, people just put up with the conventional Californian ways of life. Now, because of Covid, that could change drastically over the next few years. Just a thought. Now with big names leaving + COVID this could be a bug turn around. I’m 24 and considering moving away myself even though all my family is here. Way expensive to live and bigger pockets has allowed me to realize the difference in opportunities and costs elsewhere.

    🤔

  • New to Real Estate · CA · Member since 2020 · 15 posts · 3 votes
    5y

    @Tyler Hull totally feel the same way pal. People need to do their own research and become more independent (myself included lol).

  • Real Estate Broker · Chicago, IL · Member since 2021 · 2 posts · 3 votes
    5y

    @Kyle J. As an ex Californian (In Chicago now) born and raised in Long Beach. Having gone to SDSU and lived in SD for 6 years with lots of So/Nor Cal kids (still friends with people from both). With divorced parents, a sister and Mom moving to Boise, ID where the transplant CA population is like 80%, I think I'm well qualified to speak about this situation.

    Reasons for leaving

    #1 = Opportunity

    #2 = Job/Career prospects

    * Unless you are very well connected with a great degree (Doctor/Lawyer/MBA) or have a family business to fall into it's very difficult to get ahead in CA. (Unless you want to join a union... I.e firefighter (GL!), Cop, city workers. That's another topic for a different day!

    #3 = It's a lonely place to live. Okay if you're uber rich there is plenty to do! For most average people in CA it's a pretty mundane place to to live. Go to work... Sit in traffic... Complain about traffic... Repeat. Okay maybe not with covid but if you lived and worked there you know!

    #4 = Entitled People with an image! Everyone is someone in CA! From the broke *** guy at the party to the billionaire in board shorts. It's so stressful to play the game but if you want to have any social life in CA you must!

    I can go on for awhile but I'm honestly exhausted just from thinking about this topic. From a real estate perspective I think CA will crash again when all the boomers grandfathered in on prop-13 die off. The majority of millennials are not going to pay $2.5m for some McMansion built in 2000.

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