James & Tim's VERY off the wall late night discussion-LO

James & Tim's VERY off the wall late night discussion-LO

Member since 2008 · 2k+ posts · 0 votes

NOTE: This Topic was split from the 50% Rule Discussion in the Landlording Forums

Richard I was looking at your site and had some observations and questions. Your an honest and open guy so I am sure your open to a discussion and where I am off and wrong in my observation, you can tell me. Where I have some valid points you can comment as well. Were all here to learn, right?

Richard-Rehab702 current 80k profit deal, before expenses.

s.

150k estimated ARV, less 48k cash purchase, less 35k repairs (although the pictures indicate a MAJOR rehab) equals: 67k before selling expenses and holding costs.

13k shortfall off projection from the start.
Minor math error-could be a years rent if exit was hold and rent.
Or if ones strategy was 100 a month cash flow, that would be 130 months to make up for that mis calculation, or 10.8 years.

A minor math error?

The 35K in repairs includes:
Scope of Work:

Here are some labor time estimates considering Journeyman Labor. Keep in mind its a do it your self project so add 30% to 100% to these figures.
Very hard to figure from pictures.

New Roof 70 Hours
Replace Aluminum Siding with Vinyl 64
New Double-Pane Low-E Windows 25
New Exterior Doors 12
Electrical Upgrade With 200 Amp Service 7 panel only?
Plumbing Upgrade Using PEX 80 ? how extensive?
Tankless Water Heater 6
New Bathroom & Kitchen 120 ? how extensive?
New Drywall 150 minimum complete
New Flooring 35? type-tile inc more
New Landscaping 16 Minimum

Total typical Labor Hours: 585
So 2 guys 36 day sounds right.

Journeyman RETAIL labor: 95 per Hr. Bay Area CA 65 per hr NV?
So 65 times 585 hours equals- $38,035 Labor costs
Keep in mind most do it your self rehabers are going to go way over typical journey man hours.

Say I do ALL of the work my self and I have a modest 70k take home annual earnings. Annual income divided by 12, divided by approx 160 hours a month would be a minimum of $65.00 per hour that my time is worth.

Consider I could have used Journeyman anyways because most of them are not working regularly anyways. In my book, I would have saved 40 an hour if I paid 2 Journeyman 25 an hour each for the entire project.
Could have saved a total of $23,400 by NOT doing it my self!
Being a contractor, this is the ONLY way I can think.

60 and hour gross per guy is my game!

So, $38,035 Labor costs alone.

What is your time worth to you and how do you calculate?
Where are the materials coming from if I am anywhere near accurate?

Another way I see it is all said and done the deal is at just about wholesale cost in the end. Why not just get a property at wholesale and flip? Your into it almost 100k it seems all said and done and estimated value is 150k

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  • Attorney · Raleigh, NC · Member since 2008 · 4k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    18y

    "Although I live in an 1200sq ft house thats worth 900K !!! So my "perspective is no doubt jaded."

    Yep. I wouldn't pay more than 8 or 9 grand for a 1200 sf house...lol.

    "Where on earth is a property NOT low end at 10K?"

    Somewheres. How's the song go, "I ain't first class but I ain't white trash."

    "I can say that 3K barely covers the most cosmetic of improvements."

    Sometimes. I don't buy them all.

    "We have looked at and purchased pools of 5k - 20k homes and rehab is quite a bit more than 3k as many have been stripped of copper, doors, fixtures etc."

    Sometimes. I don't buy them all.

    "You guys keep mentioning the likely hood of bad renters destroying units with repair cost to exceed 10k, so if that happens your looking at a repair cost in excess of the property cost."

    Then we sell the to folks from California. ;-) Just kidding....lol. Had to have a little fun with that one.

    "So, do tell where these are located and and lets have a question and answer session here."

    Heh. Nope. :lol:

    "You not getting them in Chicago IL

    If you say so.

    ", so how do you get to them, rehab them and manage them?"

    I buy them as REOs, rehab them and manage them. It's no great secret how this works. It's work.

    "Last we spoke you mentioned that where you invest was secret as you sell this information to your students and your strategies."

    Yep and this is why I'm secretive. It's kinda like hiring a hunting guide. I take people into markets before they become publicized like Buffalo and KC are right now and prices get all jacked up. We all gotta make money somehow. You sell property like your Ely one you mentioned and I love my "guide service". :-)

    "Since were all spilling the beans and being "held accountable" for our posting and claims" etc. I invite you to get on here with some specifics we can all learn from."

    Enough specifics are mentioned. I'm not a flipper. My money is not made in selling portfolios but in holding property. Also, I have an obligation to my current students to protect their investment. Thats why I don't disclose geographic information and hold my properties in LLCs that would take an act of Congress to find are mine. Ironically hunting guides do the same (this analogy keeps working, I may have to use this)...lol.

    "Everyone is this thread has been asked a lot of questions and givin a lot of input to others, so your turn."

    I've given my share.

    "I will post some pictures of 10K homes and I ask you to do the same. Lets see my low end and your not low end and let the audience decide! "

    Ha! You don't want to do this one. I took photography in college and had a talent in turning some dog ugly women hot on film... :goofy:

    "The homes we get at 10k are not even close to as nice as many folks storage sheds or dog houses in main stream Silicon Valley. LOL On that note, a nice 12x14 shed does cost more than 10K..."

    I've seen what California women spend on dogs....

    All in good nature. James and I have talked in e-mails and get along fine....

    Tim

  • Attorney · Raleigh, NC · Member since 2008 · 4k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    18y

    Whoever said I'm nice? :lol:

    "kind of ironic to slice and dice the other guys deals that he didn't bring up until Mike went on his web site"

    Haven't even started on yours yet. MWUUHAHAHAHAHAAAAA! Lol :lol: Just kidding - yours are pretty solid numbers which is more than I can say for a lot of wholesalers.

    "your talking about 150k in properties with 7500 rents all the time and its a total secret not open to discussion. "

    Ummm....yeah. And that ain't gonna change any time soon. :wink: You ever hear of the Colonel's "11 secret herbs and spices"? What's the second word in "11 secret herbs and spices"? Business is built on the sale, protection and/or use of secrets. Ok...now I'm hungry for KFC....lol

    Tim

    P.S. And no - trying to get me drunk so I'll talk doesn't work either. I'm german. We get more efficient the drunker we get. We just smile a lot.

  • Attorney · Raleigh, NC · Member since 2008 · 4k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    18y
    Originally posted by "**********":

    I've been drinking some red wine but let me reread this...you will pay me $500 for every one that you can't find? Ummmm ok - I own 3,600,000,000 properties. Send the check to....oop AHHH! You almost got me there! :lol:

  • Attorney · Raleigh, NC · Member since 2008 · 4k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    18y

    As the president of F1 Max Mosely would say, "Eet Appears he needs more of ze punishment!"

    :lol:

  • Attorney · Raleigh, NC · Member since 2008 · 4k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    18y

    "Also anyone could sue you for any alleged reason and a good lawyer could file a motion for " order of examination" of your assets and you would have a tough choice to make.

    Considering any lawyer worth their salt would have already found most of your assets on their own, you would run the risk of contempt and or perjury or worse a felony by lying or end up in jail for refusing the order"

    But where do they send the summons? Mwuhahahahaa! lol I guess if someone really cared that much they could do it. I did learn in my divorce though how to make this process a real PITA (learned from my ex's example....) and it's probably cheaper to just pay me off. :lol: Learned one thing about our legal system, sometimes it's more effective to be annoying than right. :lol:

  • Joshua D.Pro Member
    BiggerPockets Founder · HI · Member since 2008 · 16k+ posts · 5k+ votes
    18y

    Wow, James and Tim . . . you guys really did a smash job in killing this thread. While I'm inclined to get frustrated, I guess it is a complement to BiggerPockets that you've had your conversation in the middle of the night, while drinking, here on BiggerPockets . . .

    Boy do I need to moderate this discussion!

    I'll come back in a few and make some cuts . . . don't freak out - you'll be able to continue your bet in the off-topic area.

  • Real Estate Investor · OH · Member since 2008 · 4k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    18y

    I agree that Tim's properties are LOW END ($10,000 - HUH!) I certainly don't have any properties that are THAT LOW, but I did want to post a picture of my very high end $11,000 duplex. Unfortunately, I don't seem to be able to post it as an attachment. How can we do that? The attachment gizmo doesn't seem to like my picture (.jpg) or maybe Josh is discriminating against Hillbillies from Ohio and our high end ($11K) properties! :violin:

    Hillbillies ARE a protected class here in Ohio!

    Mike

  • Joshua D.Pro Member
    BiggerPockets Founder · HI · Member since 2008 · 16k+ posts · 5k+ votes
    18y

    Typically when someone can't post a picture using the attachment feature, they are hillbillies from Ohio. It has happened before, believe it or not! :wink: We're not discriminating against you as a class, though Mike . . . it is hard running the internet on an old Commodore 64, I could imagine. :zzz:

    Odds are that your image file is too big to attach. Shrink the file size down and try to repost it.

    This website should help:
    http://resizr.lord-lance.com/

    Lets see this little beauty of yours!

  • Real Estate Investor · Member since 2008 · 340 posts · 34 votes
    18y

    If you want to be really lazy about it, go to www.filedropper.com and upload the file there and then share the URL with the rest of us.

    It takes about 5 second to do and you don't have to signup for the site in order to use it (unlike flickr, etc.).

  • Real Estate Investor · OH · Member since 2008 · 4k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    18y

    Thanks for the tip on the resize sites.

    Here is my $11,000 Duplex: (see the attachment)

    Wantta Buy It? California special: Only $1.2 Million!!!

    Mike

  • Real Estate Investor · Las Vegas, NV · Member since 2008 · 1k+ posts · 447 votes
    18y
    Originally posted by "**********":
    Richard I was looking at your site and had some observations and questions. Your an honest and open guy so I am sure your open to a discussion and where I am off and wrong in my observation, you can tell me. Where I have some valid points you can comment as well. Were all here to learn, right?

    13k shortfall off projection from the start. A minor math error?

    Another way I see it is all said and done the deal is at just about wholesale cost in the end. Why not just get a property at wholesale and flip? Your into it almost 100k it seems all said and done and estimated value is 150k

    Hey James,

    I’m glad that you took the time to look at my site.

    First off: The $80k figure was a test to see if anyone was paying attention, congrats, you were the first to check my math! Seriously though, it was a math error. It occurred because I lowered my ARV assumption but didn't change the end result. BPOs put the ARV at $165k but I decided to assume a lower figure, if it turns out to be more, then that's great.

    As far as the rehab, the pictures do make it look worse than it really is. But it is fairly extensive.

    As for your labor estimate, if I were hiring guys at that rate you would be correct. I will be doing the bulk of the work myself. When I need the extra pair of hands I have a handyman that I use at $10 per hour. This is rural Nevada and it is possible to get decent help at that rate.

    You point about the value of my time is correct if that was my concern. However, I enjoy doing the work and at this point in my life I’m not chasing deals. If I never wanted to work again I wouldn’t have to. I am very fortunate in that regard and I do things because I want to, not because I have to. Right now I am content to do one or two deals a year. In the past I’ve had five jobs going at once. I’ve been doing this for 15 years and I know exactly what is involved. If I were hiring the job out and acting as the project manager like I would normally do, I would figure the renovation cost at about $60k but may have altered the scope of work a little.

    That would still put it well within the formula for a profitable deal.

    ($150,000 * 70%) - $60,000 = $45,000 max purchase

    I paid $48k, but used cash so that there is no financing cost involved, that allows you to pay a little more. The ARV is most likely higher than $150k, but I prefer to use a lower figure in this market.

    My 35k estimate is based primarily on the cost of material and incidental labor. I will have the new electrical panel installed by a pro and I will have the drywall professional taped because it would take me a year and a day to do. My estimate will probably prove to be higher than the actual cost.

    We all look at deals form our own point of view because we have different goals. You naturally take a contractor’s perspective. I take one of someone who is looking for a fun project that will make a few dollars. If for some reason I am unable, or don’t want to, continue I can hire it out and still have a profit.

    The Website itself was put together simply to market my new book. I don’t use it to sell projects or look for new ones. If you want to look at a time vs. money formula, writing a book is a sure-fire loser. I spent almost a year writing it and getting it published yet will make very little from it. I would have to sell about 25,000 copies to make as much as I could on one RE deal. Money was not a motivating factor for sure, it was just something that I’ve always wanted to do.

    8)

  • Real Estate Investor · OH · Member since 2008 · 4k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    18y

    You don't know how right you are. Before I bought it, it had been a crackhouse. There were several 5 gallon buckets of human feces because they had been living there with no water. There was a mattress on the bathroom floor - I presume so that they could wake up and instantly throw up. I literally didn't see the floor ANYWHERE in the entire building before I bought it, due to the clothes (many undoubtedly stolen, complete with the tags), trash, toys, dog feces, etc.

    It's now a very nice duplex with a good tenant in one side and all my rehab stuff stored in the other side.

    Mike

  • Attorney · Raleigh, NC · Member since 2008 · 4k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    18y

    WTF? James you got crack and you're not sharing? Not cool man...

  • Attorney · Raleigh, NC · Member since 2008 · 4k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    18y
    Originally posted by "**********":
    Tim-

    [size=18]Would YOU PLEASE change the subject with some of your off the wall humor before I throw up![/size] :goofy:

    Let me knock back a few shots and get in the zone. :beer: :beer: :beer:

  • Attorney · Raleigh, NC · Member since 2008 · 4k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    18y
    Originally posted by "**********":

    High End Dog- High end home, what more could a man ask for? LOL

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kGOLijXhP0M

    Man, I hope no women read this thread....lol

  • Homeowner · reno, NV · Member since 2008 · 30 posts · 0 votes
    18y

    [b][i]Hey Tim, Saw the video, You just wait until you come rolling in on a stretcher at the hospital I work at! LOL

    Alexis

    [/i][/b]

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