Real Estate Investor · Frisco, TX, TX · Member since 2010 · 388 posts · 138 votes
On another thread there has been some discussion on buying silver. Since I have been wanting to buy but am unsure I thought I would start a different thread for that. Here is my question. I go online to a site like:
I was watching that spike last night on a 1 min chart. Unbelievable. Guy adami from cnbc has been calling for a blowout move like this for the past couple weeks. Props to him.
I bought about 280 ounces in feb 09 at 13 something an ounce sould it at 25 and kicking myself in the a$$ .
Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2008 · 557 posts · 70 votes
15y
Originally posted by Kenneth Smith:
Sorry guys for harping on this. It's in my blood. Been there for a long time. Get's me all excited.
It's fascinating stuff. I feel the same. I've been in for a while. A skilled "or lucky" trader may do well and make $$$$ shorting the next big dip. It will happen soon (I hope).
My point, which sounds like yours, is that it's a dip on an uptrend...There are too many fundamentals in place that support metals going up for the next few years. Or at least until Dec 21 2012, which is the end of the world according to the Mayan calendar. :wink: Dec 22 2012 might be a great sell day :lol:
The inflation adjusted high is somewhere close to $130.00 silver. For gold it's around $2400.00.
Compared to the late 70s/early 80s spike we have less metal and many more large players, e.g. the BRICs.
During periods of questionable paper currency the maxim among central bankers seems to become, "He who owns the gold makes the rules"... or something like that. I don't see why central bankers are going to become sellers of metal in the next few months. Then there is the part about how the public is still not completely in it yet. Although awareness is up for sure now, finally.
Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2008 · 557 posts · 70 votes
15y
Originally posted by Rich Weese:
Matty- $32? Gut feeling or solid research? I don't invest in metals, but I'll buy a bit if it EVER drops below $35. I just don't see it. Rich
You might have me there Rich! It's not a gut feeling and it's not "solid" research. That statement was based on a long silver chart - I believe a 10 year chart - which suggests there has been a numerous 25% to 35% corrections from crazy silver spikes.
The last several weeks qualifies as a "crazy silver spike" IMHO. So from $50 that would take us down to the mid, and maybe even low 30s. But that certainly is not "solid" research. Thanks for asking and making me clarify.
Orlando, FL · Member since 2009 · 2k+ posts · 282 votes
15y
I know this thread is about silver but I just checked the gold price and it broke yet another record today. I'm starting to wonder if the "$2000 by the end of this year" claims could be true..
Real Estate Investor · Select a State · Member since 2010 · 79 posts · 17 votes
15y
$2000 for gold and $100 for silver - could totally happen this year. I wonder what will happen in 2, 3, 5 years. And I'm not shorting anything yet, IMHO both are still cheap enough to buy and hold till the bubble is about to burst.
Orlando, FL · Member since 2009 · 2k+ posts · 282 votes
15y
Wow, gold just broke another record today. I believe that Bernanke announced that they will NOT be doing a QE3--I thought that would have tamped gold and silver down a bit, but it hasn't.
Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2008 · 557 posts · 70 votes
15y
Originally posted by Bienes Raices:
Wow, gold just broke another record today. I believe that Bernanke announced that they will NOT be doing a QE3--I thought that would have tamped gold and silver down a bit, but it hasn't.
It almost looked as if the price of gold started climbing after every question he answered.
If Bernanke follows exactly what he said he would do in his thesis on the great depression he will not stop printing. Debasing is the way to go. That technique rhymes with centuries of history.
I think the markets are starting to see through his BS more clearly at this point: A different kind of transparency perhaps. For example, claiming that the oil/gas price issue is not related to the Fed. That claim was funny, except for the part about how it's more scary than funny.
That and maybe articles on Bloomberg quoting analysts whom are claiming that China is about to dump a Trillion of foreign reserve currency in to gold bullion.
Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2008 · 557 posts · 70 votes
15y
Originally posted by Rich Weese:
Matty- $32? Gut feeling or solid research? I don't invest in metals, but I'll buy a bit if it EVER drops below $35. I just don't see it.
We're getting there. It's at $39 today. I am relieved about the pullback. I am also relieved that the media was calling 49 the top (which means it's not of course).
Silver is on sale. It might go further on sale. And stay in this range over the summer. Either way this is a buying opportunity in my opinion.
Financial Advisor · Tampa Area, FL · Member since 2008 · 956 posts · 214 votes
15y
Originally posted by Matty M:
Originally posted by Rich Weese:
Matty- $32? Gut feeling or solid research? I don't invest in metals, but I'll buy a bit if it EVER drops below $35. I just don't see it.
We're getting there. It's at $39 today. I am relieved about the pullback. I am also relieved that the media was calling 49 the top (which means it's not of course).
Silver is on sale. It might go further on sale. And stay in this range over the summer. Either way this is a buying opportunity in my opinion.
many analysts are suggesting that we may go into the mid 30's and then move back into the 45 range in the nearer term. (not that they seem to know more than anyone else)
as i tell many of my clients, often times, securities can go up like a staircase and fall like an elevator. certainly not for the faint of heart.
Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2008 · 557 posts · 70 votes
15y
Originally posted by Josh Green:
many analysts are suggesting that we may go into the mid 30's and then move back into the 45 range in the nearer term.
I agree with that. Though, often during the summer the precious metals stay depressed. However, especially during these times you're right; you never know.
Mid and longer term I also consider what cartoon characters with modulated voices say: For example, a silver spot price of $20.00 per ounce and a physical silver price (I can hold it in my hand) of $80.00 per ounce.
Lexington, KY · Member since 2009 · 2k+ posts · 1k+ votes
15y
This is pretty much what I predicted would happen in the short term. People were way to bullish on silver and most commodities in my opinion. I think silver could go down below $30, but I would start to buy if it gets close.
Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2008 · 557 posts · 70 votes
15y
Originally posted by Jon Klaus:
Good timing, as opposed to a week ago.
Oh man I am sure some people got fleeced when they bought at $48, panicked, and are now probably selling at $34 to Rich.
Short term trading really can be a zero sum game. I am a horrible short term trader. Which is one reason why I didn't bother shorting (Though I hope every here who did short timed it well).
Real Estate Investor · Dania Beach, FL · Member since 2010 · 74 posts · 41 votes
15y
Well, I made a post back on the 25th about going short around 48.00. I ended up doing 3 trades that day. All profitable, but that's what I used to do - floor tade. I love scalping the market. I never did like holding positions overnight. Too much can happen. It looks as though the funds got out and a lot of stops got hit in the beginning. The market has been very volatile here. I'm staying on the sidelines for a couple of days to see where the technicals pan out. The July contract has some pretty good support a bit under 34.00. Could go either way.
Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2008 · 557 posts · 70 votes
15y
Originally posted by Kenneth Smith:
Well, I made a post back on the 25th about going short around 48.00. I ended up doing 3 trades that day. All profitable, but that's what I used to do - floor tade. I love scalping the market.
Very cool Kenneth. I can appreciate that skill. I tried day trading, or very short term swing trading for about nine months. I was bad. I even sold right in the middle of the flash crash last year :) My trader friends gave me a puzzled look on that one. I don't blame them. Actually that was my last trade for anything I don't want to sit on for more than at least six months.
For any trade I have to stick to mid and long term plays where I get the fundamentals.
As I learn more about real estate I am sure these quirks of mine will help me pick an appropriate niche.
Real Estate Investor · Dania Beach, FL · Member since 2010 · 74 posts · 41 votes
15y
Hey Matty,
That was my life for about 10 years. Long time ago. I just burned out. It takes it's toll. A lot has changed since I was on the floor, but I still like to keep a foot in there. I still have friends at the exchange. It's all electronic now, not like it was when I was doing it.
That's my issue getting started here - patience. But I'm confident I'll get the ball rolling soon. I'm starting to get that burn for R.E. as I had for trading.
But I'll probably always do a trade here or there. Once it get's in you it's hard to get it out.
Handyman · THUMB, MI · Member since 2010 · 72 posts · 14 votes
15y
Matty- good call...not exactly $32 but damn close and much faster than I expected. You seem to know your stuff so wheres it going from here???Do you still think it will stay stagnant thru the summer? Is it possible it could hit $25 even though its $37 as I post this...I've never play commodities before and am very surprised at how volatile they are. Stocks up slow down fast....silver up fast down fast....WTH
Los Angeles, CA · Member since 2008 · 557 posts · 70 votes
15y
Originally posted by DAVID GAGE:
Matty- good call...not exactly $32 but damn close and much faster than I expected. You seem to know your stuff so wheres it going from here???Do you still think it will stay stagnant thru the summer?
Thanks David.
Short term the call is tough for me. Mid to long term - sometime over the next few years - my money is on triple digit silver. I believe we'll beat the inflation adjusted high ($130 - $140) range by a lot (Definitely in physical silver. I am not sure about the Comex spot price.) This will probably happen in a spike similar to how we recently almost hit $50.00 . Once we take out the 80s high and have support above $50.00 for a few weeks it's going to be interesting.
I think we will take out $50.00 by late fall or next spring.
Ultimately it may all end in an early 80s style super spike. I am looking for 1 oz of gold - or 16 ounces of silver - to be nearly equal to whatever the number the Dow Jones industrial average is.
Likewise, I like the idea of exiting when 40 to 50 oz of gold - or around 500 oz of silver - is equal to the median price of a single family home. That is already the case in some markets. But I am using the overall USA median single family home price for that parameter.
I am using history as the guide for the aforementioned exit signals. At what dollar price that will happen I do not know.
And of course I am not going to wait for that to happen before investing in real estate.