Investor · Round Rock, TX · Member since 2010 · 8k+ posts · 4k+ votes
Unemployment claims are inching down, the economy’s Q2 numbers were revised up a bit, and the sentiment in the articles I see all point to a recovery. Is this election propaganda or are we actually seeing what will amount to a sustained recovery?
Landlord · Seattle, WA · Member since 2010 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes
15y
Sure has a lot of propaganda value right before the elections. There are so many short term ways that can temporarily boost an economy or business. I don't think much has really changed.
Landlord · Seattle, WA · Member since 2010 · 3k+ posts · 1k+ votes
15y
Sure has a lot of propaganda value right before the elections. There are so many short term ways that can temporarily boost an economy or business. I don't think much has really changed.
Real Estate Investor · Aurora, CO · Member since 2010 · 175 posts · 92 votes
15y
Bailouts? Stimulus packages?
The streets in my neighborhood are getting new pavement this month even though there aren't any potholes. In fact, they still look pretty much the same as when we moved in 4 years ago despite scraping from heavy snow and they only serve the residents, not thoroughfares.
It's gotta be stimulus money that will be lost if they don't spend it so in this case the paving company saves a few jobs. But what is the real cost? Anyway you slice it, it's robbing Peter to pay Paul.
The numbers and the news share a lot in common....revised and edited for our amusement.
Investor · Southlake, TX · Member since 2009 · 950 posts · 338 votes
15y
My impression is that we've bottomed out but I cant imagine that we will see much improvement in employment and or home prices for the next year or so. What good are low rates if no one can qualify?
Investor · Chattanooga, TN · Member since 2009 · 1k+ posts · 903 votes
15y
Based on articles and estimates I've read, the Fortune 500 is sitting on somewhere between 1 and 2 TRILLION dollars. There is probably two to three times that amount sitting offshore. That is money that is not active or really doing much other that earning a meager interest rate. The fact that companies continue to sit on those reserves tells me we aren't getting any better.
I would think jobless claims being down is simply explained as people who are past the 99 week mark and can no longer collect bennies. We are stuck in the mud for the time being.
Orlando, FL · Member since 2009 · 2k+ posts · 282 votes
15y
I believe a recession is defined as two or more quarters of consecutive negative growth. So it's possible that the recession could technically end while unemployment remained at 7-8%, which would still be very bad. I remember the recession of Bush 41 and the economy basically stank until about 1995, even though it was technically over long before then. And the unemployment rate is so much higher now than it was during that recession.
Investor · Round Rock, TX · Member since 2010 · 8k+ posts · 4k+ votes
15y
The recession officially ended last June. The question is if we are really recovering based on what people are seeing. I am seeing positive signs, but Austin will likely be one of the first places to exit the doldrums.
Investor · Round Rock, TX · Member since 2010 · 8k+ posts · 4k+ votes
15y
I don't see jobs coming back very quickly. We mostly have a service economy now and there is strong competition from overseas. Employers will just work people to death until they *have* to hire someone because some valuable resources escape somewhere else.
With U6 unemployment at 22% we certainly have a long way to go. I think the biggest impediment to growth right now is just fear of the unknown. The economy is growing slowly so I am not sure that anyone needs to hire folks yet. Without employment growth how do we get a recovery?
I think the classical definition of a recession no longer applies. That may work well for a goods-based manufacturing economy, but I think there needs to be consideration for employment in the definition now too.
Orlando, FL · Member since 2009 · 2k+ posts · 282 votes
15y
Originally posted by Bryan Hancock:
I don't see jobs coming back very quickly. We mostly have a service economy now and there is strong competition from overseas. Employers will just work people to death until they *have* to hire someone because some valuable resources escape somewhere else.
With U6 unemployment at 22% we certainly have a long way to go. I think the biggest impediment to growth right now is just fear of the unknown. The economy is growing slowly so I am not sure that anyone needs to hire folks yet. Without employment growth how do we get a recovery?
I think the classical definition of a recession no longer applies. That may work well for a goods-based manufacturing economy, but I think there needs to be consideration for employment in the definition now too.
Ideas?
I agree, recession needs to be redefined. There are so many factors to hinder employment now that didn't exist 30 or 40 years ago--H1B, outsourcing, the fact that anyone over 50 (45?) looking for a corporate job is considered radioactive these days (although maybe that's always been the case?).
Real Estate Investor · Aurora, CO · Member since 2010 · 175 posts · 92 votes
15y
I agree, recession needs to be redefined. There are so many factors to hinder employment now that didn't exist 30 or 40 years ago--H1B, outsourcing, the fact that anyone over 50 (45?) looking for a corporate job is considered radioactive these days (although maybe that's always been the case?).
Exactly! If you held a job in manufacturing 20 years ago or more and your plant closed, you're still out of work unless you retrained for another field.
My husband got laid off from his job at a Home Depot subsidiary a couple years ago and if he didn't already have his side business in place he'd be SOL at age 60.
We either have to bring back what worked for America in the past or adopt a new paradigm.
Investor · Round Rock, TX · Member since 2010 · 8k+ posts · 4k+ votes
15y
Well it seems that the gov-mint is interfering with the recovery again. Any new thoughts about how long it will take to be back to "normal"? I am convinced that some people are burned for life by this one.
Investor · Round Rock, TX · Member since 2010 · 8k+ posts · 4k+ votes
15y
The real unemployment rate is 22% and has stayed there for a long time.
Having said that I think things are getting better. It certainly won't be a brisk recovery, but I think the worst is behind us and things are ticking up finally.
Real Estate Investor · Milwaukee, WI · Member since 2008 · 1k+ posts · 671 votes
15y
It might be simple and might not be real, but it seems like I see a lot more people collecting cans and it isnt always the normal crowd. Either tin has gone up or times are really bad for some who never would stick their hands in the trash in the past.
Banker · Seattle, WA · Member since 2010 · 3 posts · 1 vote
15y
Originally posted by Jeffrey Koenig:
It might be simple and might not be real, but it seems like I see a lot more people collecting cans and it isnt always the normal crowd. Either tin has gone up or times are really bad for some who never would stick their hands in the trash in the past.
Yes I've seen a lot more of these types, and the creepy part is that they are lining up at the liquor stores at 9am. I don't think it's because they worked all night collecting liquor empties. :(
Real Estate Consultant · Minneapolis, MN · Member since 2010 · 9 posts · 3 votes
15y
No matter what the propaganda points to the fact of the matter is that there are more and more empty buildings, houses up for sale, foreclosures are still happening and there are a lot of people out of work. I think it will still be quite some time before we see a large scale recovery and growth.
Charleston, SC · Member since 2010 · 1 post · 1 vote
15y
I think that while the economy itself is gradually creeping up, the housing market may pull it back down, especially if the robosigning crisis in the foreclosures drags on..
Investor · Round Rock, TX · Member since 2010 · 8k+ posts · 4k+ votes
15y
Hi David...welcome to BP!
Yeah...that is definitely a concern. The housing cycle feeds on itself in reverse too! More foreclosures mean more price drops mean more lost equity mean more foreclosures. Ugh!
Flipper/Rehabber · Seminole, FL · Member since 2010 · 859 posts · 316 votes
15y
Something must be done about unemployment. And by something I dont mean more Govt jobs.
Somehow we need to strengthen small business more, so people can get back to work. Sadly it seems that small businesses are getting the short end of the stick.