$20 Oil and non-Houston Markets

$20 Oil and non-Houston Markets

Attorney · Katy, TX · Member since 2014 · 397 posts · 215 votes

I'm in Houston and work as an attorney with only energy clients and my business has been severely impacted.  I've also seen the real estate market locally cool over the past 6 months and the trend is down.

How are things going in Dallas, Austin, San Antonio, etc.?

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Investor · Peachtree Corners, GA · Member since 2014 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
10y

Please don't make the mistake of thinking this is about the big oil companies squeezing out the little guys.  This is about Saudi Arabia trying to maintain their market share.   Basically this ($50 or less oil) will stop when either the Saudis run out of money or there is a severe cutback in production, further than what we've already seen.  Don't forget the Saudis also have a great incentive to keep selling oil at almost any price to prevent Iran from taking market share when Iranian production comes back online, thanks to the lifting of sanctions.  

Also in the past we had a good bit of sway with the Saudis but after the end of sanctions that is no longer the case.   Saudis are more than smart enough to realize that long term it is definitely in their interests to severely damage US fracking operations.  Back to your point about big oil squeezing out the little guy, it would be much cheaper for them to simply buy out the little guys than have a multi year period of cheap oil.   Big oil has been cancelling lots of projects and laying off thousands of workers and that is very costly.   

One other more esoteric thought, frackers (for lack of a better term) have been borrowing heavily the last year to continue to finance their production, and now a lot of the loans (bonds) they took out are junk.   This will have negative effects on all oil companies' ability to get the best rates on loans for sometime to come.  

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  • Real Estate Agent · San Antonio, TX · Member since 2015 · 26 posts · 7 votes
    10y

    One of the most well-stated summaries of the Texas real estate market ever!  Gonz, that was well-said!  To me, Houston will be the tough spot in Texas for the next few years.  It's so oil-dependent, a short-term crash may be inevitable as Gonz said.  You all know how the cuts work during oil slumps.  First, the contractors, then the field workers, then they work their way up the chain.  Once they start cutting the upper-level executive ranks, things are bad, and not getting better in the short-term.  That's what seems to be happening right now.  Normally during real estate downturns, rental rates stay fairly consistent or increase (as people can't obtain financing, lose their homes, etc).  In Houston's case, vacancy rates are rising, and home values are starting to fall.  It's the perfect storm for a mini-slump.  Of course, all is well in the world if oil works its way back up, but all indications point to cheap oil for a while.

    As for Austin, as a general rule of thumb, any time real estate appreciation rates are WAY out of whack with wage appreciation rates, it's cause for concern.  That has been happening for a while now, but Austin is defying logic so far.  I said the same thing last year, and wished we would have invested more money there the past couple years, so who knows!

    San Antonio is where the majority of our clients are investing right now, although Austin is still popular for obvious reasons.  We don't invest in the DFW market, but it's a great one!

  • Investor · San Antonio, TX · Member since 2013 · 88 posts · 44 votes
    10y

    I invest mainly in San Antonio but also have rental units in Houston. Here are my thoughts:

    San antonio:  market is solid  for both rentals and flips. It has cooled down in the south san antonio areas where the eagle ford shale are was heavily hit. However I mainly invest close to downtown and in the northern east section and I see no significant decline in the rental demand. It's also tough to purchase  Overal: market is solid right now.  

    Houston: I can't comment on purchases because I have bough in Houston in a few years. However, rental demand is still strong in the Northwest area. It may be because I have rentals mainly in B+ neighborhoods with excellentschools.  I haven't been able to raise rents as I have been doing in San Antonio however  and so that's why I think the Houston market has cooled a little.  

    Finally: if you are diverse in REI it shouldn't matter whether the market cools down or become hot. If prices fall, it's a great time to pick up properties at a discount. Just don't become over leveraged and maintain a cash flow positive situation. This insulates you from a down market.

        Conversely if the market becomes hot and prices appreciate then you just ride that wave. I.e. hold on to your property and refinance to get cash out ir ell your properties if you need cash. 

    Happy investing. 

    Dan

  • Investor · Willow Spring, NC · Member since 2009 · 5k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    10y

    Oil clearly is and has been Boom and bust

    @Ethan G. I'm sure you know this already, but all the facts from Houston point to major short and intermediate term trouble ahead. The charts on page 11 would lead me to have great pause in making Houston RE investments.

    TX is a great state and a major economic force. But I hate to say, BLS statistics say TX had a -9.6% 12 month % change in employment in private Natural Resources and Mining employment in 2015(*). Better than -20.6% in ND, but the county map shows lots of red. This is the nature of a boom and bust type oil economy. I guess if the rest of TX doesn't have much exposure to the oil & gas business, the boom may continue. I don't know enough about TX to know if oil is 5%, 10%, 15%, ?% of job related industry in various regions of TX. I do know that as an investor these should be concerns, given that real estate is a long term, capital intensive business.

  • Investor · Plano, TX · Member since 2015 · 74 posts · 22 votes
    10y

    I live in Plano and they are developing an area called Legacy West.  Here is a description:

    Legacy West, a 240-acre mixed-use project, is under developmenton the southwest corner of the Dallas North Tollway and State Highway 121 in the Dallas suburb of Plano, Texas. J.C. Penney selected Team Legacy, a development partnership with KDC, The Karahan Cos., and Columbus Realty, to develop the acreage surrounding its corporate headquarters. Legacy West will consist of corporate office space, the 292-room Renaissance Hotel, a high-end shopping center with restaurants and other retail uses, and 621 apartment homes. KDC has two corporate build-to-suit projects underway in Legacy West including a 265,000-square-foot headquarters complex for FedEx Office and Toyota’s North American Headquarters.

    In addition Chase just announced adding a complex consolidating 10,000 jobs to this area.

    And just up the highway is the Grandscape development including Nebraska furniture mart.

    Building on 400+ acres, we are virtually a city within the center of the Dallas/Fort Worth market, an epicenter of growth, in the 4th largest metropolitan area in the nation.

    And we are attracting the biggest, boldest and brightest names in retail, starting with Nebraska Furniture Mart of Texas, a retail powerhouse that by itself will attract a projected 8 million shoppers a year.

    Our grand plans for Grandscape include more than just one-of-a-kind retail:

    • Convention center hotel and spa
    • Unique restaurants
    • An outdoor amphitheater
    • And more.

    So this area is still very active, both for sales and building.  Not easy to find deals. 

  • Attorney · Katy, TX · Member since 2014 · 397 posts · 215 votes
    10y

    Good to hear that Dallas and rest of state other than West Texas not that affected by the oil rout.  I am a bit pleasantly surprised by this - I would've thought there would be a bit of a ripple through the whole state.

  • Toronto, Ontario · Member since 2014 · 615 posts · 172 votes
    10y

    Projections are that we may not see oil prices in the $60s in near term...typically not less than 24 months from now..

    Oil pricing ( and fixing) has become more of a political phenomenon than 'pure market forces'... Saudi insists on maintaining its quota within OPEC and Iran will some flood the market with over 1mbpd.....

    However, in the rare event that Saudi & Iran reach a consensus ( more easier for the camel to pass through the eye of the needle !), then oil prices may rebound, otherwise, its a long haul.......

    OPEC members are already protesting the reluctance or rather insistence of Saudi to retain its quota.......lets see how it all pans out!!!!!!

  • Rental Property Investor · Phoenix/Lima, Arizona/OH · Member since 2012 · 4k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    10y
    Originally posted by @Cal C.:

    Please don't make the mistake of thinking this is about the big oil companies squeezing out the little guys.  This is about Saudi Arabia trying to maintain their market share.   Basically this ($50 or less oil) will stop when either the Saudis run out of money or there is a severe cutback in production, further than what we've already seen.  Don't forget the Saudis also have a great incentive to keep selling oil at almost any price to prevent Iran from taking market share when Iranian production comes back online, thanks to the lifting of sanctions.  

    Also in the past we had a good bit of sway with the Saudis but after the end of sanctions that is no longer the case.   Saudis are more than smart enough to realize that long term it is definitely in their interests to severely damage US fracking operations.  Back to your point about big oil squeezing out the little guy, it would be much cheaper for them to simply buy out the little guys than have a multi year period of cheap oil.   Big oil has been cancelling lots of projects and laying off thousands of workers and that is very costly.   

    One other more esoteric thought, frackers (for lack of a better term) have been borrowing heavily the last year to continue to finance their production, and now a lot of the loans (bonds) they took out are junk.   This will have negative effects on all oil companies' ability to get the best rates on loans for sometime to come.  

     This is also about Russia, and keeping it in line. This is also about nat gas to Europe through Syria, etc Russians and Saudis can maintain production at $20 - it'll hurt both (it already is), but both will do it for prolonged periods. 

    And in the medium term, the Tesla I am driving is so much more of a car than those BMW and Mercedes, and when they come out with Model 3 in two years for $35,000, and cost of ownership becomes identical to that of a nicely equipped Honda Accord, there will me a mass shift to electric transport at the household level. 

    There are just so many questions and concerns going forward about oil-dependent economies...

  • Investor · Sugar Land, TX · Member since 2012 · 554 posts · 232 votes
    10y

    @Ethan G., subscribe to the Tierra Grande magazine from the TAMU Real Estate Center. It has excellent research, data, and other news sent out monthly.

    https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/info/faq

    This month's issue dove into your question pretty deeply. The overall take I got was, it may be too soon to tell how Houston will do, but (like others said) a slowdown/blip is more likely than a crash.

  • Investor · Sugar Land, TX · Member since 2012 · 554 posts · 232 votes
    10y

    Correction to my above comment. Apparently they no longer offer paid subscriptions, but instead post past issues online.

  • Flipper/Rehabber · York, UK · Member since 2013 · 895 posts · 453 votes
    10y

    As I'm sure you know, the impact of oil is not limited to Texas.  Here in Denver I have a number of clients who work in oil & gas who are always concerned about job stability and relocation.  We've actually worked on educating them that job concerns shouldn't necessarily deter them from buying a home or investment property, but that real estate is a nice backup plan while they're raking in cash.  We make sure they buy in a way that the property will cash flow should they have to relo suddenly or in the case of once recent buyer take 1/2 time pay and spend six months in Southeast Asia traveling.

  • Real Estate Broker · Austin, TX · Member since 2012 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    10y
    Originally posted by @Nate Garrett:

    Here are two recent articles regarding oil prices and the rental market that we think are useful to investors in Oklahoma City, Tulsa, Dallas, and Houston (or really any market in Oklahoma or Texas).

    Oil Price Impacts and Multifamily Housing - Freddie Mac

    How is Oklahoma real estate positioned in this oil downturn? - Kansas City Federal Reserve

     The Freddie Mac article is a good one! Since Freddie Mac does alot of with the finance side of the multifamily business then its very important to know their thoughts. If they think that the market will tank then they will be less likely to buy multifamily loans which will mean less liquidity in the market which means lower prices. They are a behemoth in the secondary market.  Thanks for sharing Nate! 

    Since I have operations in Austin I know it really well. The city is very diversified with high tech, entertainment, government, etc but it will be affected through less tax revenue coming to the Capitol city from places like Houston. Less tax revenue means tightening of the budget at the State level which means less employment at the state level. I imagine that it won't significantly change the economy. After all, I heard recently that there were 200 people a day moving to Austin metro. Those are insane numbers. 

    Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae are important entities to pay attention with regards to multifamily, imo. My three cents with inflation factored in.

  • Hartford, CT · Member since 2015 · 6 posts · 1 vote
    10y

    I've always thought of Texas as a great place to invest. Good to know about Houston, San Antonio, Austin, and Dallas!!

  • Realtor · Scottsdale, AZ · Member since 2015 · 9 posts · 1 vote
    10y

    @Ben Leybovich

    "And in the medium term, the Tesla I am driving is so much more of a car than those BMW and Mercedes, and when they come out with Model 3 in two years for $35,000, and cost of ownership becomes identical to that of a nicely equipped Honda Accord, there will me a mass shift to electric transport at the household level."

    The Tesla is a great car, and I've driven multiple models, but it's also not yet economically feasible for either Tesla or the average consumer. By the 2nd quarter of 2015 Tesla lost $4000 per car it sold. That varies from year to year, but it's not a sustainable long-term business model either. That's after a Federally subsidized $7500 tax credit to make the car more palatable to consumers, with a base price AFTER credit of $70,000 for the lowest model. Also, as EV's Tesla drivers don't currently pay anything into the gas tax, so it's further subsidized by internal combustion cars at a current rate of $34 billion per year. The tax burden for road repair, etc would soon have to be shifted to EV's such as the Tesla if ICE cars were replaced. 

    If you were to try and let the Tesla stand on its own it wouldn't currently be able to. It's a great feat of engineering, and Tesla is going about it the right way by building the infrastructure and battery technology to grow their business, but we're a long way off from them having a large marketshare. 

  • Investor · Willow Spring, NC · Member since 2009 · 5k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    10y
    Originally posted by @Ryan Falconi:

    @Ben Leybovich

    "And in the medium term, the Tesla I am driving is so much more of a car than those BMW and Mercedes, and when they come out with Model 3 in two years for $35,000, and cost of ownership becomes identical to that of a nicely equipped Honda Accord, there will me a mass shift to electric transport at the household level."

    The Tesla is a great car, and I've driven multiple models, but it's also not yet economically feasible for either Tesla or the average consumer. By the 2nd quarter of 2015 Tesla lost $4000 per car it sold. That varies from year to year, but it's not a sustainable long-term business model either. That's after a Federally subsidized $7500 tax credit to make the car more palatable to consumers, with a base price AFTER credit of $70,000 for the lowest model. Also, as EV's Tesla drivers don't currently pay anything into the gas tax, so it's further subsidized by internal combustion cars at a current rate of $34 billion per year. The tax burden for road repair, etc would soon have to be shifted to EV's such as the Tesla if ICE cars were replaced. 

    If you were to try and let the Tesla stand on its own it wouldn't currently be able to. It's a great feat of engineering, and Tesla is going about it the right way by building the infrastructure and battery technology to grow their business, but we're a long way off from them having a large marketshare.  

    Reality Check time. Note that I don't own and have never driven a Tesla product.  

    1) Tesla, first calendar quarter numbers:

    Automotive Revenue 893,320,000
    cost of revenue 631,745 (70.7%)
    Margin: 261,575,000 (29.3%)

    So they made a quarter of a billion in gross profit on automotive sales. Let's compare. Ford Motor company, same time frame:

    Automotive Revenue 31,800,000,000
    cost of revenue 28,702,000,000 (90.3%)
    Margin 3,098,000,000 (9.7%)

    Tesla creates a fundamentally more profitable product. Tesla also spends 64% of its gross margin into R&D, which at this point in their existance creates a loss.

    Regarding "Also, as EV's Tesla drivers don't currently pay anything into the gas tax." Not true. Many states, like North Carolina, charge plug-in electric vehicle owners an additional $100 fee during first-time NC vehicle registration and registration renewal. That's about 10,000 miles driven equivalent.

    Regarding "If you were to try and let the Tesla stand on its own it wouldn't currently be able to." Tesla is a public company. It's standing on it's own already. Tesla has a market cap of $22.7B vs. $45.5B for Ford Motor.

    Yes, consumer's get a tax break. But in Ford's case the manufacturer gets the breaks.
    Ford annual report, page 17: "At December 31, 2014, we had Tax Attributes that would offset more than $15 billion of taxable income." Tesla had, at December 31, 2014, tax offsets of $12.7M. Tesla's tax benefits are 0.08% of Ford's.

    I have owned Ford products. I've driven Ford products 250,000+ miles. I like Ford products. They are a great company. But today's Tesla is to today's Ford as the model T is to a horse drawn carriage.

  • Realtor · Scottsdale, AZ · Member since 2015 · 9 posts · 1 vote
    10y

    @Chris Martin
    "Regarding "Also, as EV's Tesla drivers don't currently pay anything into the gas tax." Not true. Many states, like North Carolina, charge plug-in electric vehicle owners an additional $100 fee during first-time NC vehicle registration and registration renewal. That's about 10,000 miles driven equivalent."

    Your own link shows that the $100 fee is in substitute for the emissions test. So yes, there are fees, but there's also discounts for auto insurance, etc. All told the discounts and other incentives far outweigh the $100 fee. Also, $100 divided by the average gas tax in the US of $0.48/gallon yields multiplied by the average MPG (25) of a US vehicle equals 5200 miles not 10,000. The average American drives ~13500 miles per year, which even excluding the Federal tax credit, the lack of an emissions test fee, the extra discounts for auto insurance, etc. they still contribute approximately 1/3 of what ICE drivers do.

    "Automotive Revenue 893,320,000

    cost of revenue 631,745 (70.7%)

    Margin: 261,575,000 (29.3%)"

    Where are you getting these numbers? Tesla hasn't released quarterly earnings for Q4 2015 or their 10K for 2015 yet, but in the first 9 months of 2015 they had a net profit of NEGATIVE $568 million. Their net profit in 2014 was NEGATIVE $298 million. 

    http://ir.teslamotors.com/secfiling.cfm?filingID=1...

    Compare that to Ford, which posted $3.187 billion and $1.9 billion over the same two time frames. 

    "Tesla creates a fundamentally more profitable product. Tesla also spends 64% of its gross margin into R&D, which at this point in their existance creates a loss."

    Tesla has sold a grand total of just over 100,000 vehicles in the entire history of their company. They've posted a net loss in EVERY single year that I've seen an SEC filing, which includes every year from 2009-2015. Yes, some of this money is R&D, battery research, infrastructure, buying property, etc, but they've still yet to post a profit as a company. 

    This isn't an attempt to knock Tesla. Far be it from me to give an innovator and genius like Elon Musk business advice, but we're talking about Tesla in terms of the post I was originally responding to. Particularly these two quotes:
    "there will me a mass shift to electric transport at the household level."

    "There are just so many questions and concerns going forward about oil-dependent economies..."

    The Tesla fills a current market niche, which is a high-end luxury automobile that is eco-friendly. Yes, they're supposedly coming out with the more affordable Model 3 in 2017/2018, but it's still going to be a small market. All electric vehicles currently make up less than one half of 1% of new car sales in the US, and obviously a smaller number of total vehicles on the road. Even accounting for substantive growth over the next 10 years it's still not going to dramatically alter the US car market, and CERTAINLY not changing the investment outlook of an area that has Oil & Gas business such as Houston.

    We also have to consider that this is a US-based outlook. Much of the growth in demand in recent years is in areas that are developing such as China. That isn't a market that can afford to easily get into a $35,000 sedan, much less a $100,000 one when their per capita GDP is $6800 compared to $53000 for the US. 

    The whole point is that electric vehicles aren't going to drastically alter the Texas investing market when it comes to real estate.

  • Rental Property Investor · Phoenix/Lima, Arizona/OH · Member since 2012 · 4k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    10y

    @Ryan Falconi - you are sort of arguing the unarguable. If we can agree that relative to utility and performance an electric vehicle is much more attractive to a user/consumer, then we have to concede that the only limitation is the price. 

    I have limited experience, but all of it is personal experience. In my town little backwards town in the middle of Ohio of 50,000 population there are 2 model S vehicles, and I am not exaggerating to you - I can't go into a car wash, coffee shop next to my office, or to pick up my kids at school, the car is the subject of desire. Period!

    Now - can people afford it - no. But, as soon as this is no longer the case, these cars will be bought an-mass. If Tesla is able to deliver on the promise of a $35,000 vehicle, which seems inevitable at this point, these will be a mass shift in the marketplace - the oil industry knows it...

    Think of it this way. Imagine buying a boarded up apartment community. It is your job to re-position the project. Additionally, there are powerful forces at work who do not want you to succeed - are you going to bleed CF?!

    Great things take time, but the progression is almost never parabolic. The line bottom-feeds for a long time, and then explodes within a short time. I see this in my businesses, and this is what happened to BiggerPockets. The deciding product here was the brain child of my good friend @Brandon Turner - the podcast. Within 6-12 months BP exploded. But, for a decade @Joshua D. did what needed to be done, and much of it wasn't sexy...

    When that $35,000 Model III comes out, it'll be a vertical parabolic movement in market share for Tesla. I would be hugely surprised if it isn't...the product, while not perfect, is awesome :)

    Puts a stupid smile on my face every time...

  • Roy N.Pro Member
    Rental Property Investor · Fredericton, New Brunswick · Member since 2013 · 7k+ posts · 4k+ votes
    10y
    Originally posted by :

    I have limited experience, but all of it is personal experience. In my town little backwards town in the middle of Ohio of 50,000 population there are 2 model S vehicles, and I am not exaggerating to you - I can't go into a car wash, coffee shop next to my office, or to pick up my kids at school, the car is the subject of desire. Period!

     Ben:

    I get the same reaction to my '66 VW Bus ;-)

  • Investor · Peachtree Corners, GA · Member since 2014 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    10y
    Originally posted by @Roy N.:
    Originally posted by :

    I have limited experience, but all of it is personal experience. In my town little backwards town in the middle of Ohio of 50,000 population there are 2 model S vehicles, and I am not exaggerating to you - I can't go into a car wash, coffee shop next to my office, or to pick up my kids at school, the car is the subject of desire. Period!

     Ben:

    I get the same reaction to my '66 VW Bus ;-)

     My cousin had one of those in the early seventies, for awhile he couldn't fix a problem with getting it into reverse.  That made for some interesting parking!   I know he regretted selling it later.

  • Realtor · Scottsdale, AZ · Member since 2015 · 9 posts · 1 vote
    10y

    @Ben Leybovich

    "I have limited experience, but all of it is personal experience. In my town little backwards town in the middle of Ohio of 50,000 population there are 2 model S vehicles, and I am not exaggerating to you - I can't go into a car wash, coffee shop next to my office, or to pick up my kids at school, the car is the subject of desire. Period!"

    I'm not disagreeing that it's an awesome car. I've considered purchasing one for my personal vehicle. I've test driven them three times total on two different models, the 85D and 70D. They're great cars.

    "Now - can people afford it - no. But, as soon as this is no longer the case, these cars will be bought an-mass. If Tesla is able to deliver on the promise of a $35,000 vehicle, which seems inevitable at this point, these will be a mass shift in the marketplace - the oil industry knows it..."

    There's already a $35,000 electric car. In fact, there's several. The 2016 Nissan Leaf starts at an MSRP of $29k+, the Ford Focus electric is also $29k+, the Fiat 500e is $32.6k, and the Kia Soul EV is $35k. Chevy's coming out with the Bolt late this year as well in addition to the Volt, which is their Hybrid, and it should be just a touch over $35k at $37.5. 

    "When that $35,000 Model III comes out, it'll be a vertical parabolic movement in market share for Tesla. I would be hugely surprised if it isn't...the product, while not perfect, is awesome :)"

    That's the point I was trying to make in my previous post. Right now all Electric Vehicles, not just Tesla, account for 1 out of every 244 new cars. I have no doubt that number will go way up in the next 10 years, so let's just assume that they increase their market share 20x in the next decade to 8% of the vehicle market. Currently the US consumes 19 million barrels of oil per day, 45% of which goes toward gasoline. That's 8.55 million barrels of oil per day for gasoline. Now let's multiply that by 8% to account for the loss due to the move to EV's. That's .69 million barrels of oil less than our current consumption. So instead of 19 million barrels per day we're looking at 18.3 million. That's roughly the difference between our 2015 and 2013 consumption.

    My argument isn't that EV's are bad. My argument isn't that they won't become far more popular in the coming years. The point I'm trying to make is that even a fundamental shift in personal vehicles to EV's isn't going to affect the viability of markets like Houston, especially when it comes to real estate. 

  • Realtor · Scottsdale, AZ · Member since 2015 · 9 posts · 1 vote
    10y

    Anyway, not trying to get into a big argument with you or anyone else. I just happen to have a lot of insight into the oil industry and the Houston real estate market. Figured I'd add my thoughts.

  • Investor · Peachtree Corners, GA · Member since 2014 · 1k+ posts · 1k+ votes
    10y
    Originally posted by @Ben Leybovich:

    @Ryan Falconi - you are sort of arguing the unarguable. If we can agree that relative to utility and performance an electric vehicle is much more attractive to a user/consumer, then we have to concede that the only limitation is the price. 

    I have limited experience, but all of it is personal experience. In my town little backwards town in the middle of Ohio of 50,000 population there are 2 model S vehicles, and I am not exaggerating to you - I can't go into a car wash, coffee shop next to my office, or to pick up my kids at school, the car is the subject of desire. Period!

    Now - can people afford it - no. But, as soon as this is no longer the case, these cars will be bought an-mass. If Tesla is able to deliver on the promise of a $35,000 vehicle, which seems inevitable at this point, these will be a mass shift in the marketplace - the oil industry knows it...

    Think of it this way. Imagine buying a boarded up apartment community. It is your job to re-position the project. Additionally, there are powerful forces at work who do not want you to succeed - are you going to bleed CF?!

    Great things take time, but the progression is almost never parabolic. The line bottom-feeds for a long time, and then explodes within a short time. I see this in my businesses, and this is what happened to BiggerPockets. The deciding product here was the brain child of my good friend @Brandon Turner - the podcast. Within 6-12 months BP exploded. But, for a decade @Joshua D. did what needed to be done, and much of it wasn't sexy...

    When that $35,000 Model III comes out, it'll be a vertical parabolic movement in market share for Tesla. I would be hugely surprised if it isn't...the product, while not perfect, is awesome :)

    The saddest part is even at $35,000 most people can't afford it, though they will think they can.

  • Investor · Willow Spring, NC · Member since 2009 · 5k+ posts · 3k+ votes
    10y

    Ryan, I agree with your last paragraph, "...even a fundamental shift in personal vehicles to EV's isn't going to affect the viability of markets like Houston, especially when it comes to real estate." That's it. Therefore, this is my last post on this subject.

    As you may know, Tesla couldn't sell cars in many states until about a year or so ago. Tesla sales were illegal in NC until about 24 months ago. Auto manufacturers can't sell directly. The Tesla operation in Raleigh started as a "service center" and to this day is not a "dealership" because dealers sell other people's stuff. The word Tesla was not allowed on the building they occupied, etc. Here is a link to the 'no-Tesla sales allowed bill': http://www.ncleg.net/sessions/2013/bills/senate/pdf/s327v2.pdf
    I exaggerate a little... the bill is actually called "Clarify Motor Vehicle Licensing Law" that, when you read it, targets Tesla's attempt to sell vehicles online. Of course Tesla is/was a big deal because no luxury car dealer wanted to compete with a new entrant. So Tesla sales in NC (and lots of other regulated states) were $0 until not long ago.

    You are incorrect about several other items in prior posts. The $100 NC tax is in addition to an annual inspection. You are correct, there is no emmission test for an EV. No tailpipe. Owners still pay the annual inspection PLUS $100.

  • Real Estate Investor · Houston, TX · Member since 2014 · 173 posts · 128 votes
    10y
    Originally posted by @Ryan Falconi:

    @Ben Leybovich

    That's the point I was trying to make in my previous post. Right now all Electric Vehicles, not just Tesla, account for 1 out of every 244 new cars. I have no doubt that number will go way up in the next 10 years, so let's just assume that they increase their market share 20x in the next decade to 8% of the vehicle market. Currently the US consumes 19 million barrels of oil per day, 45% of which goes toward gasoline. That's 8.55 million barrels of oil per day for gasoline. Now let's multiply that by 8% to account for the loss due to the move to EV's. That's .69 million barrels of oil less than our current consumption. So instead of 19 million barrels per day we're looking at 18.3 million. That's roughly the difference between our 2015 and 2013 consumption.

    My argument isn't that EV's are bad. My argument isn't that they won't become far more popular in the coming years. The point I'm trying to make is that even a fundamental shift in personal vehicles to EV's isn't going to affect the viability of markets like Houston, especially when it comes to real estate. 

    Great points by both of you. Another add-on to Ryan's analysis is that even if/when EV's get an 8% market share of sales for a given year, that will still be well less than 8% of the vehicles on the road, given the average age of vehicles on the road (11.4 years as of 2015).  So I agree the potential impact on the oil markets will be negligible for quite some time.

  • Rental Property Investor · Houston, TX · Member since 2015 · 64 posts · 29 votes
    10y

    I love cars and I would like to own an electric car or maybe diesel-electric.  I changed my mind when I asked my brother in-law about the 4" thick binder in his truck.  He said he had to study it as they carry it on the fire truck and would have to refer to it when using the jaws of life on electric cars.  I asked, " why is it so thick?"  he said, "It has diagrams for every electric car sold in America.  We have to pull the diagrams for the car to make sure we don't cut into any electrical lines and shock ourselves."

  • Apex, NC · Member since 2016 · 16 posts · 5 votes
    10y

    Despite what everyone says about it...I still want a Tesla.  

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