Lenexa, KS · Member since 2016 · 58 posts · 14 votes
In Kansas City, the single family home prices dropped 20% in 2008 in many areas and the inventory and day on market increased dramatically. When the next downward cycle hits, what are the:
1) Key drivers (economy, interest rates, war, local economy change, lending changes)
2) Impacts (price drop, days on market, both, no funding, acquisition costs)
3) Strategies (a. buy, fix and hold; b. buy/sit; c. do nothing; d. buy/wholesale)
We are in a long 7 year real estate boom and this can't continue forever. I wished it would, but I want to get folks sentiment on the topic.
Specialist · Bakersfield, CA · Member since 2016 · 74 posts · 35 votes
9y
Has anyone read Robert Kiyosaki's new(er) book, Second Chance? Big eye opener to what you guys are talking about. All the big economists, including Kiyosaki, are talking about the next major economic downturn happening between 2017 - 2019. Everyone is saying to prepare...buy primary and secondary assets (resources, land, precious metals, real estate, ownership in businesses that produce those resources, etc.), and stay away from tertiary assets (stocks, bonds, 401(k)'s, etc).
The people who do best in a downturn are the few people patient and careful enough to hold onto some capital. Supply is low right now, so people fish for deals. In a downturn, you'll get too many good offers to know what to do. If you have some money left for that rainy day, you'll be better off.
Otherwise, be defensive and make sure your numbers play nice in good and bad markets. For instance: If you're buying $1M dollar condos on the prospect that the next buyer will pay $1.05M, that plays nice until it doesn't, and then it really doesn't.
Specialist · Bakersfield, CA · Member since 2016 · 74 posts · 35 votes
9y
Has anyone read Robert Kiyosaki's new(er) book, Second Chance? Big eye opener to what you guys are talking about. All the big economists, including Kiyosaki, are talking about the next major economic downturn happening between 2017 - 2019. Everyone is saying to prepare...buy primary and secondary assets (resources, land, precious metals, real estate, ownership in businesses that produce those resources, etc.), and stay away from tertiary assets (stocks, bonds, 401(k)'s, etc).
Rental Property Investor · Phoenix AZ / Kendallville, IN · Member since 2016 · 293 posts · 149 votes
9y
I really don't think there is a crystal ball out there to predict a downturn. It seems the best way to prepare is not to be over leveraged when it happens, and have some cash reserves in place. That way if there is a downturn, it might be a good time to buy and get the good deals like in 2008 if you are in a position to acquire more properties or just hold steady.
Specialist · Dallas, TX · Member since 2010 · 511 posts · 252 votes
9y
When the next downward cycle hits, what are the...
1) Key drivers (economy, interest rates, war, local economy change, lending changes)
Keep eye on following changes possible under new government...
Economy: Trade war by increasing import tax = Inflation
Interest Rate: Planning to increase interest rate = Inflation
War: dont know but always inflation
2) Impacts (price drop, days on market, both, no funding, acquisition costs)
Next recession will not be Real Estate related, i feel chances that changes listed above will bring inflation and RE price will go up...
3) Strategies (a. buy, fix and hold; b. buy/sit; c. do nothing; d. buy/wholesale)
As Mr Warren said, dont know near term future but always economy will be good long term (10 years) so best way to play RE is buy in diversified stable economy and HOLD long term.
Residential Real Estate Investor · Kansas City, MO · Member since 2014 · 10k+ posts · 5k+ votes
9y
I would actually prefer if it went down (not like 2008 of course), but it's gotten tough to buy and it would be nice if it softened a bit, especially since we're all about buy and hold.
In Kansas City, the single family home prices dropped 20% in 2008 in many areas and the inventory and day on market increased dramatically. When the next downward cycle hits, what are the:
1) Key drivers (economy, interest rates, war, local economy change, lending changes)
2) Impacts (price drop, days on market, both, no funding, acquisition costs)
3) Strategies (a. buy, fix and hold; b. buy/sit; c. do nothing; d. buy/wholesale)
We are in a long 7 year real estate boom and this can't continue forever. I wished it would, but I want to get folks sentiment on the topic.
Your "boom" has already ended...likely late in 2015.
Unless you're flipping, in which case you're not investing, the market should not change you investment strategy. If you are a disciplined investor, you will now be looking for deals that will yield most of their returns from cash flow (high COC returns). If these deals are so good and, even if the market, drops a bit they still make sense...then close them. Don't over-leverage and acquire deals for appreciation...Don't be caught naked when the tide goes out!
Otherwise, the intelligent investors are hoarding cash and preparing for the next buying opportunity, which in most markets is probably coming in the next 9-24 months.
In Kansas City, the single family home prices dropped 20% in 2008 in many areas and the inventory and day on market increased dramatically. When the next downward cycle hits, what are the:
1) Key drivers (economy, interest rates, war, local economy change, lending changes)
2) Impacts (price drop, days on market, both, no funding, acquisition costs)
3) Strategies (a. buy, fix and hold; b. buy/sit; c. do nothing; d. buy/wholesale)
We are in a long 7 year real estate boom and this can't continue forever. I wished it would, but I want to get folks sentiment on the topic.
Your "boom" has already ended...likely late in 2015.
Unless you're flipping, in which case you're not investing, the market should not change you investment strategy. If you are a disciplined investor, you will now be looking for deals that will yield most of their returns from cash flow (high COC returns). If these deals are so good and, even if the market, drops a bit they still make sense...then close them. Don't over-leverage and acquire deals for appreciation...Don't be caught naked when the tide goes out!
Otherwise, the intelligent investors are hoarding cash and preparing for the next buying opportunity, which in most markets is probably coming in the next 9-24 months.
^^^ Totally agree with this!
If we have another 2008 drop, don't worry, the country wont be able to handle it. You can hoard all the gold and land you want, it wont do you no good. We've cycled off the top, it's still hot in most areas, but it's cooling slowly, likely overshooting a little right this minute. Interest rates are going to put a quick end to that. I think the #1 driving factor in the last few months for deals as been interest rates. Peeps are starting to jump ship and deals are flying off the shelf.